Melvin Pineda

P ACL Giants

Age 23 RHP 5'10" / 201 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	18	ROKDSL Giants Bl…	11	11	38	3.79	2.15	33.1%	12.4%	—	K 22.5% · BB 15.5% · FIP 3.59
2025	21	MIX2 levels	18	4	26	5.96	4.50	33.0%	17.4%	—	K 23.1% · BB 20.9% · FIP 5.75
2026	22	MIX2 levels	37	0	49	6.57	3.24	35.0%	17.1%	—	K 24.6% · BB 20.8% · FIP 4.87
2027PROJ	23	MLBSF	24	0	25	5.64	5.64	22.6%	19.2%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSF	18	0	19	5.32	5.20	23.2%	16.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBSF	30	0	31	5.04	4.91	23.6%	14.3%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJames Acuna (age 23) · Will Varmette (age 21) · Blake Holub (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.64

FIP5.64

K%22.6%

BB%19.2%

K-BB%3.4%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	11	11	38	169	56	21	1	100%	3.5	22.5%	15.5%	7.0%	0.8%	3.79	3.59	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	11	11	38	169	56	21	1	100%	3.5	33.1%	12.4%	20.7%	0.6%	3.79	2.15	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	1	1	0	4	0	3	0	100%	—	0.0%	75.0%	-75.0%	0.0%	—	12.60	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	1	1	0	4	0	3	0	100%	—	0.0%	75.0%	-75.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	4	26	115	38	20	4	22%	1.4	23.1%	20.9%	2.3%	3.6%	5.96	5.75	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	4	26	115	38	20	4	22%	1.4	23.1%	20.9%	2.3%	3.6%	5.96	5.75	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	4	26	115	38	20	4	22%	1.4	33.0%	17.4%	15.7%	3.5%	5.96	4.50	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	49	240	84	41	4	0%	1.3	24.6%	20.8%	3.7%	2.2%	6.57	4.87	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	49	240	84	41	4	0%	1.3	24.6%	20.8%	3.7%	2.2%	6.57	4.87	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	49	240	84	41	4	0%	1.3	35.0%	17.1%	17.9%	1.7%	6.57	3.24	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	SF	24	0	25	106	24	20	3	0%	1.0	22.6%	19.2%	3.4%	3.0%	5.64	5.64	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SF	43	0	46	192	45	31	6	0%	1.1	23.2%	16.2%	7.0%	3.0%	5.32	5.20	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	SF	44	0	46	195	46	28	6	0%	1.0	23.6%	14.3%	9.4%	2.9%	5.04	4.91	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	SF	18	0	19	80	19	13	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	16.2%	7.0%	3.0%	5.32	5.20	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	SF	30	0	31	131	31	19	4	0%	1.0	23.6%	14.3%	9.4%	2.9%	5.04	4.91	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	0	50	211	50	32	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	15.0%	8.4%	2.9%	5.15	4.64	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	128	24	0%	1.0	23.5%	15.0%	8.4%	2.9%	5.15	4.64	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		66	15	113	524	124	100	11	23%	1.7	23.6%	19.1%	4.5%	2.0%	5.50	4.65	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	27	200	927	219	177	19	23%	1.7	23.6%	19.1%	4.5%	2.0%	5.50	4.65	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Melvin Pineda (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.64	22.6%	19.2%	3.0%	—	5.05	23.4%	8.2%	92	-0.59	—	—	—
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	89
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	87
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	86
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	85
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	84
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	83
Carlos Contreras R 2014 · 4.77 FIP	23	SU	4.77	20.2%	18.1%	2.0%	.304	4.35	18.4%	5.0%	107	-0.42	4.29	127	83
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	82
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	82
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	82
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	82
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	82
Saul Teran R 2024 · 5.21 FIP	22	SU	5.21	22.4%	18.8%	2.9%	.279	4.40	20.1%	10.7%	84	-0.81	2.28	166	82
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	82
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	82
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	82
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	82
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	81
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.70	25.5%	12.3%	164	-2.29	3.44	259	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	39	23.3%	16.1%	1.14	5.28
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*