Aubrey Smith — OGILVIE

Aubrey Smith P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.06

FIP5.06

K%18.9%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	23	14	90	399	56	47	11	61%	3.9	10.4%	13.9%	-3.5%	3.6%	6.30	5.95	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	23	14	90	399	56	47	11	61%	3.9	10.4%	13.9%	-3.5%	3.6%	6.30	5.95	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	HOU	23	14	90	399	56	47	11	61%	3.9	14.0%	11.8%	2.3%	2.8%	6.30	4.92	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	91	386	78	41	11	100%	6.5	20.2%	10.7%	9.6%	3.0%	4.84	4.75	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	94	396	83	39	12	100%	6.2	21.0%	9.9%	11.2%	2.9%	4.66	4.57	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	95	401	86	38	12	100%	6.3	21.5%	9.4%	12.1%	2.9%	4.54	4.47	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	95	401	87	37	12	100%	6.3	21.7%	9.3%	12.3%	2.9%	4.48	4.44	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	94	395	86	37	12	100%	6.2	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.0%	4.48	4.48	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	91	383	82	37	12	100%	6.5	21.5%	9.6%	12.0%	3.1%	4.53	4.57	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	87	366	78	36	12	100%	6.7	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.2%	4.63	4.70	+0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	81	344	72	35	12	100%	6.3	20.9%	10.1%	10.9%	3.4%	4.78	4.87	+0.0
2035	31	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	76	320	72	31	12	100%	6.3	22.5%	9.6%	12.9%	3.7%	4.80	4.81	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	45	190	38	20	5	100%	6.4	20.2%	10.7%	9.6%	2.9%	4.80	4.71	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	65	274	58	27	8	100%	6.5	21.0%	9.9%	11.2%	2.9%	4.62	4.53	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	77	325	70	31	9	100%	6.4	21.5%	9.4%	12.1%	2.9%	4.50	4.43	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	83	350	76	33	10	100%	6.4	21.7%	9.3%	12.3%	2.9%	4.44	4.40	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	84	355	77	33	10	100%	6.5	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	2.9%	4.43	4.43	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	84	355	76	34	11	100%	6.5	21.5%	9.6%	12.0%	3.0%	4.48	4.52	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	81	342	73	33	11	100%	6.2	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.1%	4.58	4.65	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	76	321	67	32	11	100%	6.3	20.9%	10.1%	10.9%	3.3%	4.73	4.82	+0.0
2035	31	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	72	304	69	29	11	100%	6.5	22.5%	9.6%	12.9%	3.6%	4.74	4.75	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	104	667	2816	604	273	86	100%	6.4	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	3.0%	4.57	4.19	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	181	82	26	100%	6.4	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	3.0%	4.57	4.19	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		23	14	90	399	41	55	14	61%	3.9	10.4%	13.9%	-3.5%	3.6%	6.30	5.95	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	31	200	887	92	123	32	61%	3.9	10.4%	13.9%	-3.5%	3.6%	6.30	5.95	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aubrey Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	18.9%	11.9%	3.0%	—	4.59	20.9%	11.0%	280	-0.47	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	86
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	82
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	82
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	82
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	81
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	80
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	80
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2019 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP-	4.48	17.6%	7.9%	3.4%	.343	6.27	19.2%	11.3%	197	+1.79	3.27	243	80
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	80
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	80
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	80
Daniel Martinez R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP-	4.17	15.2%	10.4%	1.9%	.234	7.18	14.3%	1.0%	93	+3.01	3.41	242	79
Miguel Rondon R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP-	5.27	15.5%	11.4%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	179	79
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	79
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	79
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	78
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	430	78
Juan Mota R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	21	SP-	4.28	18.4%	14.8%	1.6%	.309	5.10	17.5%	5.8%	111	+0.82	3.89	279	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	82	21.3%	9.8%	1.20	4.64
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36