Aubrey Smith
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%22.6%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 15 | 9 | 62 | 279 | 34 | 27 | 9 | 60% | 4.2 | 9.0% | 11.4% | -2.4% | 4.2% | 6.35 | 6.09 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 38 | 159 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 7.5 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.6% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.47 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 100 | 438 | 70 | 42 | 14 | — | — | 16.0% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 5.62 | 5.46 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 40 | 169 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.7 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 41 | 171 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.8 | 24.3% | 8.5% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 41 | 171 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.8 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 40 | 169 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.7 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 39 | 164 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 24.3% | 8.7% | 15.6% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 4 | 4 | 28 | 118 | 28 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 7.0 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 33 | 139 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.6 | 24.3% | 8.5% | 15.8% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 35 | 148 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 7.0 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 36 | 152 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 7.2 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 36 | 152 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 7.2 | 24.3% | 8.7% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 27 | 187 | 792 | 192 | 68 | 24 | 100% | 6.9 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 3.83 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 29 | 29 | 200 | 844 | 205 | 73 | 26 | 100% | 6.9 | 24.2% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 15 | 9 | 62 | 279 | 25 | 32 | 12 | 60% | 4.2 | 9.0% | 11.4% | -2.4% | 4.2% | 6.35 | 6.09 | -1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 29 | 200 | 895 | 81 | 102 | 38 | 60% | 4.2 | 9.0% | 11.4% | -2.4% | 4.2% | 6.35 | 6.09 | -1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aubrey Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.19 | 23.9% | 15.2% | 120 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 87 |
| Ricky Castro R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 86 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 82 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 82 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 82 |
| Travis Herrin R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.21 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 3.6% | .315 | 5.04 | 17.6% | 5.2% | 106 | +0.83 | 4.21 | 236 | 82 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 81 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 81 |
| Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.33 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .343 | 6.52 | 19.2% | 11.3% | 197 | +2.19 | 3.27 | 243 | 80 |
| Brett Gillis R 2029 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 79 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 79 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 79 |
| Nick Fraze R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 79 |
| Zach Peek R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.40 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.17 | 3.40 | 233 | 79 |
| Javi Rivera R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .259 | 3.71 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 93 | -0.17 | 2.72 | 229 | 79 |
| Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 79 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 79 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 78 |
| Bryce Mayer R 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.30 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .304 | 4.80 | 27.2% | 12.2% | 52 | +1.50 | 3.30 | 140 | 78 |
| Garrett Hill R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.39 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .390 | 3.22 | 21.6% | 11.0% | 200 | -0.17 | 3.13 | 539 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 40 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 1.16 | 4.23 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |