Alton Davis II

P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 23 LHP 6'5" / 181 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ASEA	7	0	8	2.25	3.60	26.3%	21.1%	—	K 26.3% · BB 21.1% · FIP 3.54
2026	22	ALAA	25	16	76	9.47	4.61	21.4%	11.9%	—	K 15.9% · BB 14.0% · FIP 5.56
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAA	10	10	53	5.41	5.41	17.7%	13.5%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBLAA	5	5	30	5.19	5.09	19.3%	12.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBLAA	8	8	47	4.99	4.89	20.2%	11.1%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsBailey Horn (age 23) · Connor Oliver (age 23) · Estevan Gonzalez (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120128vR 136

ERA5.41

FIP5.41

K%17.7%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%4.2%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	7	0	8	38	10	8	0	0%	1.1	26.3%	21.1%	5.3%	0.0%	2.25	3.54	—
2025	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	7	0	8	38	10	8	0	0%	1.1	26.3%	21.1%	5.3%	0.0%	2.25	3.54	—
2025	21	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	7	0	8	38	10	8	0	0%	1.1	26.3%	21.1%	5.3%	0.0%	2.25	3.60	—
2026	22	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	25	16	76	387	83	46	11	64%	3.0	15.9%	14.0%	1.8%	3.7%	9.47	5.56	—
2026	22	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	25	16	76	387	83	46	11	64%	3.0	15.9%	14.0%	1.8%	3.7%	9.47	5.56	—
2026	22	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	25	16	76	387	83	46	11	64%	3.0	21.4%	11.9%	9.6%	2.8%	9.47	4.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAA	10	10	53	224	40	30	7	100%	5.3	17.7%	13.5%	4.2%	3.1%	5.41	5.41	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	70	296	57	36	9	100%	5.4	19.3%	12.0%	7.3%	3.1%	5.16	5.06	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	71	300	61	33	9	100%	5.9	20.2%	11.1%	9.2%	3.1%	4.96	4.86	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	71	300	62	33	9	100%	5.9	20.7%	11.0%	9.8%	3.1%	4.85	4.80	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	70	295	61	32	9	100%	5.8	20.8%	11.0%	9.8%	3.1%	4.83	4.82	+0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	68	286	59	32	9	100%	6.2	20.6%	11.1%	9.5%	3.2%	4.88	4.91	-0.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	65	273	56	31	9	100%	5.9	20.4%	11.4%	9.0%	3.4%	4.98	5.04	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	5	5	30	127	24	15	4	100%	6.0	19.3%	12.0%	7.3%	3.1%	5.19	5.09	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	47	198	40	22	6	100%	5.9	20.2%	11.1%	9.2%	3.1%	4.99	4.89	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	56	236	49	26	7	100%	6.2	20.7%	11.0%	9.8%	3.1%	4.88	4.83	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	60	253	53	28	8	100%	6.0	20.8%	11.0%	9.8%	3.2%	4.86	4.85	+0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	60	253	52	28	8	100%	6.0	20.6%	11.1%	9.5%	3.3%	4.92	4.95	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	59	249	51	28	9	100%	5.9	20.4%	11.4%	9.0%	3.4%	5.02	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	53	312	1317	269	148	42	100%	5.9	20.4%	11.2%	9.2%	3.2%	4.96	4.56	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	172	95	27	100%	5.9	20.4%	11.2%	9.2%	3.2%	4.96	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		32	16	84	425	71	62	14	50%	2.6	16.8%	14.7%	2.2%	3.4%	8.79	5.38	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	38	200	1012	170	148	34	50%	2.6	16.8%	14.7%	2.2%	3.4%	8.79	5.38	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alton Davis II (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.41	17.7%	13.5%	3.1%	—	4.91	20.1%	8.7%	212	-0.50	—	—	—
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	86
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	82
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	82
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	82
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	82
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	82
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.53	15.8%	4.8%	77	+0.53	4.38	243	82
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	81
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	80
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	80
Casey Fossum L 2001 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	13.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.270	4.46	19.3%	10.9%	328	+0.14	3.50	782	80
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	80
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	78
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	78
Riley Cooper L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SW	4.22	16.6%	12.0%	1.8%	.287	4.46	18.9%	7.7%	51	+0.24	4.14	139	78
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	77
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	77
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	77
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	76
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	67	20.0%	11.5%	1.22	5.00
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*