Dylan Dreiling

CF Frisco RoughRiders

Age 24 L/L 5'10" / 197 lbs AA HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1202ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	A+TEX	106	.198/.343/.279	1	5	34	—	.149/.238/.213
2025	22	A+/INTL2 orgs	538	.231/.326/.387	13	17	50	—	.173/.232/.285
2026	23	AATEX	538	.312/.384/.516	22	14	106	—	.268/.320/.432
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBTEX	4	.235/.291/.383	0	0	86	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	25	MLBTEX	81	.237/.294/.389	2	2	89	0.1
2029PROJ45% MLB	26	MLBTEX	215	.237/.296/.390	7	4	90	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$0.6M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Whiff%92

Z-Con%92

wOBA86

wRC+81

ISO76

K%73

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 74%

CompsParker Meadows (age 23) · Trey Sweeney (age 24) · Drew Robinson (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†86

AVG/OBP/SLG.235 / .291 / .383

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%7

BABIP286

ISO150

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	106	86	17	4	0	1	19	20	0	5	3	198	343	279	622	81	242	19	18	296	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	483	420	95	21	4	12	58	101	1	15	5	226	322	381	702	155	267	21	12	315	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	55	48	13	1	2	1	7	14	0	2	0	271	364	438	801	167	364	25	13	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	538	475	148	27	2	22	56	110	0	14	4	312	384	516	900	204	361	20	10	391	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	106	94	14	3	0	1	11	26	0	5	3	149	238	213	451	64	199	25	10	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	483	445	77	17	3	9	33	129	1	15	5	173	232	285	517	112	217	27	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	538	493	132	23	2	18	38	134	0	14	4	268	320	432	752	164	321	25	7	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	106	94	14	3	0	1	11	26	0	5	3	149	238	213	451	64	191	25	10	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	—	106	86	17	4	0	1	19	20	0	5	3	198	343	279	622	81	242	19	18	296	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	538	496	85	19	3	10	37	144	1	17	5	171	230	282	513	111	217	27	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	538	468	108	22	6	13	65	115	1	17	5	231	326	387	713	156	276	21	12	319	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	538	493	132	23	2	18	38	134	0	14	4	268	320	432	752	164	329	25	7	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	—	538	475	148	27	2	22	56	110	0	14	4	312	384	516	900	204	361	20	10	391	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	106	94	14	3	0	1	11	26	0	5	3	149	238	213	451	64	199	25	10	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	538	495	85	19	3	10	37	144	1	17	5	172	230	283	513	111	217	27	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	538	495	132	23	2	18	38	134	0	14	4	267	320	430	750	164	321	25	7	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	106	94	14	3	0	1	11	26	0	5	3	149	238	213	451	64	199	25	10	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	538	495	85	19	3	10	37	144	1	17	5	172	230	283	513	111	217	27	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	538	495	132	23	2	18	38	134	0	14	4	267	320	430	750	164	321	25	7	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TEX	2%	380	349	82	16	2	10	27	93	1	8	2	234	290	377	667	143	286	24	7	296	86	-6	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	TEX	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	235	291	383	674	148	286	25	0	299	86	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	31%	260	239	56	11	1	7	19	63	0	5	2	235	293	382	675	147	287	24	7	299	89	-3	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	45%	483	443	105	20	2	14	36	117	1	10	3	236	294	384	678	148	287	24	7	301	90	-6	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	49%	489	448	105	20	2	14	37	119	1	9	3	235	295	382	677	147	286	24	8	301	90	-6	+1	-1	+2	+11	0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	TEX	52%	328	299	69	13	1	9	25	80	1	6	2	234	294	379	673	145	286	24	8	299	89	-4	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	TEX	52%	321	293	68	13	1	9	24	79	1	5	2	232	292	374	667	142	285	25	7	297	87	-5	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	TEX	52%	314	287	65	12	1	8	23	78	1	4	2	229	289	366	655	138	283	25	7	292	84	-6	+0	-3	+1	+7	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	31%	81	75	17	3	0	2	6	20	0	2	1	237	294	389	683	152	286	25	7	302	89	-1	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	45%	215	197	47	8	1	7	16	52	0	4	1	237	296	390	686	153	286	24	7	304	90	-3	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	49%	241	220	51	9	1	7	18	58	1	5	2	236	296	389	685	153	286	24	7	304	90	-3	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	TEX	52%	169	154	37	7	1	5	13	41	0	3	1	235	295	386	681	150	285	24	8	302	89	-2	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	TEX	52%	165	152	35	6	1	5	12	41	0	2	1	233	294	381	674	147	284	25	7	299	87	-3	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	TEX	52%	162	149	35	6	1	5	12	40	0	2	1	230	290	372	662	142	282	25	7	295	84	-3	+0	-2	+1	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1033	947	222	39	5	31	77	252	1	18	7	234	293	384	677	150	286	24	7	301	82	-15	+1	-5	+4	+22	0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	140	25	3	20	48	159	1	11	4	235	293	388	681	153	286	24	7	301	82	-9	+1	-3	+2	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3587	3285	745	143	14	96	265	891	6	79	27	227	286	367	652	140	280	25	7	289	82	-34	+3	-11	+9	+52	1.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	135	26	3	17	48	161	1	14	5	227	285	366	652	139	280	25	7	289	82	-9	+1	-3	+2	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 538 PAwOBA .383 → .325 (−58)K% 20.4% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.45%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	24.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.85%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.027	7.08%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.58%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.970	×1.027	24.36%
Doubles /BIP	7.40%	÷1.000	×0.840	×0.970	×1.027	6.19%
Triples /BIP	0.55%	÷1.000	×0.940	×0.970	×1.027	0.51%
Home runs /BIP	6.03%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	4.95%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .383 → .325; ISO .204 → .170; BABIP .361 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hub City Spartanburgers · 483 PAwOBA .308 → .229 (−79)K% 20.9% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.91%	÷1.026	×1.310	—	—	26.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.59%	÷1.041	×0.600	—	×1.012	6.76%
HBP% /PA	0.21%	—	×0.770	—	×1.012	0.16%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.020	×0.870	×0.954	×1.012	14.98%
Doubles /BIP	6.58%	÷0.909	×0.780	×0.954	×1.012	5.45%
Triples /BIP	1.25%	÷1.150	×0.850	×0.954	×1.012	0.90%
Home runs /BIP	3.76%	÷1.215	×0.880	—	×1.012	2.76%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 104, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 105, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .308 → .229; ISO .155 → .118; BABIP .267 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hickory Crawdads · 106 PAwOBA .292 → .218 (−74)K% 18.9% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.87%	÷0.988	×1.310	—	—	25.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.92%	÷1.019	×0.600	—	×1.027	10.84%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.026	×0.870	×0.963	×1.027	15.25%
Doubles /BIP	6.06%	÷0.994	×0.780	×0.963	×1.027	4.71%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.014	×0.850	×0.963	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.52%	÷1.014	×0.880	—	×1.027	1.35%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 105, 2B 99, 3B 103, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .292 → .218; ISO .081 → .069; BABIP .242 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Shelby'81-'91 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,326 PA	5.0	3,326	70	98	237*	281*	385*	+1	-4	1.7	3.8
/162	664	14	20	+0.1	-0.9	0.3	pk7: 6
#2Danny Santanalast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,834 PA	2.8	1,834	47	74	256	296	415	-6	-6	3.6	3.6
/162	664	17	27	-2.3	-2.2	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Luis Matos'00-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,773 PA	2.7	1,773	30	72	245*	304*	365*	+1	+10	3.2	3.2
/162	664	11	27	+0.3	+3.9	1.2	pk7: 3
#4Marvell Wynne'83-'90 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,937 PA	4.4	2,937	40	80	245*	297*	380*	+2	-0	1.9	2.4
/162	664	9	18	+0.5	-0.1	0.4	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.6	1,037	29	18	235	291	380	-6	-4	0.9	0.9
/162	664	18	12	-4.0	-2.3	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Damon Buford'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,072 PA	3.1	2,072	54	56	230*	296*	371*	-1	-2	0.2	0.8
/162	664	17	18	-0.4	-0.5	0.1	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dylan Dreiling (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	232/288/373	142	286	6	4	25%	7%	86	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	42→48	48→55	52→55	44	215/274/360	145	274	16	12	28%	7%	78	-0.3	228/295/388	160	293	16	20	27%	8%	92	+0.7	227/300/392	165	291	17	22	27%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Trey Sweeney 2024 · AA	24	42→45	47→50	54→55	49	213/293/347	134	271	14	19	26%	9%	82	+0.0	222/286/356	134	295	15	16	28%	8%	82	-0.0	219/281/356	137	291	16	15	29%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Drew Robinson 2016 · AAA	24	38→43	48→55	49→50	46	194/274/343	149	274	15	12	34%	9%	74	-0.5	212/288/380	168	308	18	12	35%	9%	88	+0.4	211/288/384	173	313	19	12	36%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Blake Tekotte 2011 · AA	24	45→47	48→50	50→55	47	228/290/372	144	279	15	18	24%	8%	86	+0.3	214/274/356	142	286	15	21	29%	7%	77	-0.3	194/258/314	120	261	9	10	28%	6%	59	-0.8
✕Quincy Hamilton 2023 · AA	25	45	46→50	53→50	49	225/307/354	128	288	14	18	26%	9%	89	+0.5	207/285/346	139	265	15	12	27%	9%	79	-0.2	185/264/323	139	233	15	10	27%	9%	64	-0.8
✕Jon Gaston 2011 · AA	24	41→42	52→55	53→50	42	216/276/389	172	281	19	10	30%	7%	85	+0.2	207/252/327	120	282	11	13	30%	5%	61	-1.5	193/225/294	101	262	7	14	28%	3%	40	-2.2
✕Daniel Johnson 2019 · AA	24	47→51	46→55	54→55	38	236/280/370	135	302	13	18	26%	4%	82	+0.0	235/288/394	159	313	16	13	29%	6%	91	+0.6	213/267/367	154	294	17	9	32%	6%	75	-0.3
●Ka'ai Tom 2019 · AA	25	45→49	45→55	49→50	45	223/286/353	130	282	12	13	25%	7%	80	-0.1	228/297/389	161	298	17	8	28%	7%	93	+0.8	211/288/370	160	280	17	6	29%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Tim Tawa 2023 · AA	24	43→45	45→55	49→50	47	215/282/334	119	268	14	12	25%	8%	75	-0.5	214/278/349	135	274	16	11	27%	8%	77	-0.3	223/286/391	168	267	21	13	25%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2021 · AA	24	43→45	47→50	52→50	37	220/262/355	135	294	15	9	30%	5%	72	-0.7	219/283/366	147	299	17	9	31%	7%	83	+0.1	208/282/359	151	278	18	6	31%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Jordan Patterson 2016 · AA	24	46→50	47→55	49→50	38	228/286/375	147	309	14	14	30%	5%	86	+0.3	223/287/370	147	312	15	9	32%	5%	85	+0.2	212/282/360	148	299	16	6	33%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Addison Barger 2024 · AAA	24	45→49	49→55	45	43	227/292/375	148	308	17	7	31%	8%	88	+0.4	226/292/393	167	281	19	7	26%	8%	93	+0.8	224/289/406	182	269	21	6	25%	8%	94	+0.8
✕Zach Kokoska 2023 · A	24	42	48→55	56→55	41	215/277/355	140	278	15	16	28%	6%	78	-0.3	198/266/359	161	275	20	17	34%	6%	76	-0.4	173/245/335	163	243	21	19	37%	6%	60	-0.9
✕DJ Stewart 2018 · AA	24	47→49	47→60	52→50	49	235/309/374	139	289	15	16	24%	8%	94	+0.9	228/305/390	162	277	19	11	24%	9%	97	+1.1	215/319/403	188	257	24	4	25%	12%	104	+0.8
✕Taylor Trammell 2022 · MLB	24	41→48	49→55	47→55	45	211/289/355	144	289	17	12	32%	9%	83	+0.1	221/305/392	171	297	20	18	31%	10%	97	+1.1	210/303/380	170	280	20	23	31%	11%	92	+0.4
✕Carlos Alvarez 2012 · AAA	24	49	46→45	49→45	51	241/313/372	132	298	14	14	24%	9%	95	+0.9	234/298/353	119	292	10	8	22%	8%	85	+0.2	247/325/329	81	299	5	6	17%	9%	88	+0.2
✕John Raglani 2007 · AA	24	46→48	47→50	47→45	46	227/297/366	139	297	14	7	28%	8%	88	+0.4	218/295/368	150	297	16	8	30%	9%	88	+0.4	203/290/369	166	273	19	7	31%	10%	83	+0.1
✕Mike Antico 2022 · A	24	43	49→45	55→60	41	219/272/369	150	281	16	13	28%	6%	79	-0.2	209/274/329	120	280	12	36	28%	7%	71	-0.8	215/279/331	115	289	12	35	28%	7%	70	-0.7
✕Chris Meyers 2023 · A	24	42→46	44→50	51→40	43	211/270/330	119	277	11	9	28%	7%	69	-0.9	228/285/369	141	298	16	5	28%	6%	84	+0.2	226/286/369	143	292	17	3	28%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Tyler Collins 2014 · AA	24	44→50	46→50	46→50	46	222/285/357	135	273	13	8	24%	7%	81	-0.1	228/282/358	130	286	15	10	25%	6%	80	-0.1	222/281/344	121	288	13	11	27%	7%	76	-0.3

Dylan Dreiling

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps