Adonys Guzman

C Salem RidgeYaks

Age 23 R/R 5'11" / 221 lbs A HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP40OGV rank#367ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	22	A+/ABOS	308	.259/.384/.462	12	0	85	—	.218/.311/.380
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBBOS	418	.218/.298/.367	12	6	88	0.7
2028PROJ38% MLB	24	MLBBOS	85	.227/.306/.382	3	1	91	0.3
2029PROJ55% MLB	25	MLBBOS	159	.229/.308/.386	5	2	92	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

BB%73

Z-Con%53

ISO50

K%48

wOBA45

wRC+44

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.7, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 91%

CompsJavier Valdes (age 24) · Ian Rice (age 23) · Jeferson Morales (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 193 proj PA

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .295 / .364

PA193

HR6

K%28

BB%9

ISO149

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 41 / POW 54

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT41

scouting grade only

POWER54

scouting grade only

EYE59

scouting grade only

SPEED47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	22	A+	Greenville Drive	—	90	74	17	2	0	3	13	22	2	0	0	230	360	378	738	149	280	24	14	336	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Salem RidgeYaks	—	218	177	48	13	0	9	31	45	5	0	0	271	394	497	892	226	305	21	14	386	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	22	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	90	79	16	2	0	3	8	29	2	0	0	203	292	342	634	139	240	32	9	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	—	218	187	42	11	0	7	21	61	5	0	0	225	319	396	715	171	266	28	10	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	308	266	56	12	0	10	29	90	7	0	0	211	305	368	673	158	267	29	9	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	308	251	65	15	0	12	44	67	7	0	0	259	384	462	846	203	298	22	14	372	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	308	269	56	12	0	10	29	90	7	0	0	208	305	364	669	156	258	29	9	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	308	269	56	12	0	10	29	90	7	0	0	208	305	364	669	156	258	29	9	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	418	373	81	15	2	12	37	117	5	6	2	218	298	367	665	149	280	28	9	298	88	-6	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	38%	226	201	44	8	1	7	20	62	3	3	1	221	301	374	675	153	281	27	9	302	91	-3	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	287	255	56	10	1	9	26	78	4	4	1	223	302	379	681	156	282	27	9	304	92	-3	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	64%	334	297	66	12	2	10	30	90	4	4	1	224	303	382	685	157	282	27	9	306	93	-3	+0	+0	+6	+7	1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	BOS	66%	355	316	71	13	2	11	32	96	4	4	1	224	303	380	683	156	282	27	9	305	93	-3	+0	+0	+6	+8	1.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	BOS	67%	362	323	72	13	2	11	32	98	4	3	1	223	302	377	679	153	282	27	9	304	92	-4	+0	-1	+6	+8	1.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	BOS	66%	358	319	72	13	2	11	32	98	4	2	1	221	299	370	670	150	280	27	9	300	89	-5	+0	-1	+6	+8	0.8
2034	30	MLB MLE	BOS	65%	351	313	67	12	1	10	31	97	4	1	1	218	295	362	658	145	278	28	9	295	86	-6	-0	-2	+6	+8	0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	BOS	65%	319	285	61	11	1	9	28	89	3	1	0	214	290	352	643	139	275	28	9	289	82	-7	+0	-3	+6	+7	0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	BOS	65%	283	254	52	9	1	7	24	80	3	1	0	208	284	340	624	132	270	28	8	281	77	-8	+0	-4	+5	+6	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	38%	85	76	17	3	0	3	8	23	1	1	0	227	306	382	687	155	291	27	9	307	91	-1	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	159	142	32	6	1	5	14	43	2	2	1	229	308	386	694	157	292	27	9	310	92	-1	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	64%	212	188	43	9	1	6	19	57	3	3	1	230	309	389	697	159	292	27	9	311	93	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	BOS	66%	233	207	48	10	1	7	21	63	3	3	1	230	308	388	696	157	292	27	9	311	93	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	BOS	67%	242	216	49	10	1	7	21	65	3	2	1	229	307	384	692	155	291	27	9	309	92	-2	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	BOS	66%	235	209	48	10	1	7	21	64	3	1	1	227	304	378	682	151	290	27	9	305	89	-3	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	BOS	65%	229	204	45	9	1	6	20	63	3	1	0	224	301	370	671	146	288	28	9	300	86	-4	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	BOS	65%	207	185	41	8	1	6	18	58	2	0	0	219	296	360	656	141	284	28	9	294	82	-4	+0	-2	+4	+4	0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	BOS	65%	183	163	36	7	1	5	16	52	2	0	0	214	289	347	636	133	280	28	9	286	77	-5	+0	-2	+3	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1785	1590	359	72	8	52	158	488	22	13	5	226	305	379	684	153	290	27	9	304	88	-25	+1	-7	+32	+39	4.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	131	26	3	19	58	178	8	5	2	226	306	380	686	154	291	27	9	304	88	-9	+0	-2	+12	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3376	3001	655	120	14	101	301	932	42	26	8	218	298	369	667	150	278	28	9	298	88	-43	+2	-10	+55	+66	7.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	126	23	3	19	58	179	8	5	2	218	298	367	665	149	279	28	9	298	88	-9	+0	-2	+12	+14	1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASalem RidgeYaks · 218 PAwOBA .385 → .309 (−76)K% 20.6% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.64%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	28.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.22%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	9.71%
HBP% /PA	2.29%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	1.77%
Singles /BIP	19.70%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.005	×0.990	18.03%
Doubles /BIP	9.85%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.005	×0.990	8.13%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.005	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.82%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	5.40%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .385 → .309; ISO .226 → .181; BABIP .305 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Greenville Drive · 90 PAwOBA .331 → .258 (−73)K% 24.4% → 32.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.44%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	32.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.44%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.998	8.65%
HBP% /PA	2.22%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	1.71%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.000	×0.870	×1.011	×0.998	20.26%
Doubles /BIP	3.85%	÷1.000	×0.780	×1.011	×0.998	3.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.011	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.77%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.998	5.07%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .331 → .258; ISO .149 → .128; BABIP .280 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
/162	664	24	0	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2Kelly Shoppachlast yr '13 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,839 PA	2.8	1,839	70	1	225	314	417	+33	+14	11.3	11.5
/162	664	25	0	+11.9	+5.0	4.1	pk7: 12
#3Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#4Bob Tillman'62-'70 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,585 PA	3.9	2,585	79	1	235*	304*	401*	+46	+0	8.8	8.5
/162	664	20	0	+11.9	+0.0	2.3	pk7: 8
#5George Mitterwald'66-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,919 PA	4.4	2,919	76	14	235*	294*	396*	+47	-1	6.5	7.4
/162	664	17	3	+10.7	-0.2	1.5	pk7: 8
#6Scott Servais'91-'01 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,778 PA	4.2	2,778	63	3	235*	296*	373*	+49	+0	6.5	6.9
/162	664	15	1	+11.7	+0.1	1.6	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.0	1,978	58	17	221	295	370	+35	+24	6.2	5.7
/162	664	20	6	+11.9	+8.1	2.1	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adonys Guzman (OGILVIE)	23	36→41	49→54	42→47	59	216/295/364	148	280	6	3	28%	9%	88	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Javier Valdes 2023 · AA	24	43	48→55	50→30	46	219/300/358	139	268	17	5	25%	7%	88	+0.5	217/301/360	143	265	16	5	24%	8%	88	+0.5	207/318/364	157	258	17	2	25%	11%	94	+0.4
✕Ian Rice 2017 · A	23	43→40	47→50	43→30	48	215/294/352	137	286	15	4	29%	9%	84	+0.1	204/288/337	133	276	16	3	30%	10%	78	-0.3	186/275/307	121	251	15	0	30%	10%	65	-0.7
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→47	47→45	48→50	48	209/292/350	141	261	14	9	25%	8%	83	+0.1	206/282/335	129	268	13	9	27%	7%	76	-0.4	222/297/349	127	274	11	8	22%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Joey Bart 2020 · AA	23	43	53→55	45→40	38	228/270/395	166	287	21	7	29%	5%	84	+0.2	235/289/374	139	337	16	5	33%	6%	86	+0.3	251/343/392	142	332	17	1	27%	10%	112	+1.0
✕Agustín Ramírez 2024 · AA	22	44→48	48→55	48→55	47	226/286/366	140	275	16	10	24%	8%	84	+0.1	237/299/402	165	282	19	17	22%	7%	97	+1.1	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Miguel Amaya 2022 · AA	23	44→43	44→50	50→40	51	216/311/333	117	280	11	7	25%	10%	86	+0.3	226/312/365	139	299	15	5	28%	9%	94	+0.9	230/302/374	144	273	16	1	22%	7%	92	+0.3
✕Tucker Mitchell 2024 · A	23	43	47→50	50→45	40	210/286/337	127	310	15	9	35%	7%	78	-0.3	198/250/292	94	278	10	7	31%	5%	53	-2.1	162/205/229	67	228	8	5	32%	4%	18	-1.7
✕Nick Cimillo 2024 · A	24	42→37	49→55	47→40	45	211/291/359	149	291	16	5	32%	9%	84	+0.2	206/277/378	172	264	21	5	29%	8%	84	+0.1	191/263/365	174	240	22	3	30%	8%	73	-0.4
✕Devin Mann 2021 · A	24	44→45	49→50	44→45	46	224/292/371	148	289	17	7	28%	8%	87	+0.4	217/297/370	153	284	16	5	28%	8%	89	+0.5	213/299/370	157	281	17	4	29%	9%	88	+0.3
●Tom Murphy 2014 · AA	23	42→38	50→65	42→45	39	211/276/367	156	300	17	5	34%	6%	81	-0.1	212/267/380	168	296	20	5	34%	6%	80	-0.1	247/319/462	214	314	30	2	30%	9%	119	+1.2
✕Jace Jung 2024 · AA	23	43→44	52→50	48→40	48	220/300/383	163	290	20	5	30%	9%	93	+0.8	216/304/368	152	282	17	4	28%	11%	91	+0.7	205/299/350	146	260	16	3	27%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Haydn McGeary 2024 · AA	24	48	47→50	46→45	48	234/313/369	135	313	15	7	28%	9%	95	+0.9	204/272/316	112	311	13	8	36%	8%	67	-1.1	171/234/291	120	258	16	8	39%	7%	47	-1.7
✕Henry Davis 2023 · AA	23	46→47	49→50	52→50	42	230/312/381	150	296	16	13	27%	6%	98	+1.2	223/306/371	148	287	17	12	27%	8%	93	+0.8	210/295/352	142	268	18	11	27%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Luca Tresh 2023 · AA	23	43→42	49→50	44→40	44	221/284/364	144	295	18	5	31%	8%	83	+0.1	207/267/344	137	264	16	4	27%	7%	72	-0.7	208/257/339	131	282	15	2	31%	5%	64	-0.8
●Ryan Lavarnway 2011 · AA	23	46	51→55	44→30	44	232/301/393	161	302	19	2	29%	8%	96	+1.0	237/301/389	152	290	18	2	24%	7%	95	+0.9	237/299/380	143	282	17	1	22%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Alejandro Segovia 2013 · A	23	42→45	49→50	50→30	47	217/279/366	149	245	17	5	20%	6%	81	-0.1	220/296/364	144	265	16	3	23%	8%	87	+0.4	212/294/352	139	256	16	1	23%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Jared Keel 2008 · A	23	43→37	51→50	48→45	47	223/302/384	160	276	18	7	26%	8%	95	+0.9	201/285/355	154	249	18	8	26%	9%	82	-0.0	182/273/336	154	218	19	8	26%	9%	71	-0.6
✕Max Stassi 2014 · AA	23	44→45	52→55	44→40	40	232/283/398	167	288	20	4	27%	5%	91	+0.6	212/258/336	124	293	14	3	32%	5%	66	-1.1	216/302/377	161	281	21	0	29%	10%	94	+0.4
✕Ryan Casteel 2014 · A	23	43→49	53→55	48→40	41	225/278/401	176	294	21	4	31%	6%	88	+0.5	232/275/368	136	310	15	5	29%	5%	80	-0.2	230/268/344	114	311	12	4	29%	5%	69	-0.5
✕Rylan Bannon 2019 · AA	23	43→47	52→50	45→50	47	220/298/383	163	296	20	5	32%	10%	93	+0.8	212/282/348	136	268	14	8	25%	8%	78	-0.3	194/292/330	136	256	16	12	29%	11%	76	-0.3

Adonys Guzman

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps