Adonys Guzman — OGILVIE

Adonys GuzmanC Salem RidgeYaks

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 221 lbs A H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION204 act + 136 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†83

AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .289 / .352

PA136

HR4

K%29

BB%8

BABIP275

ISO139

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 53

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER53

scouting grade only

EYE56

scouting grade only

SPEED47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.0	$11M	+$10M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$10M	+$9M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.7	$8M	+$8M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+1.5	$7M	+$5M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+1.2	$5M	+$3M
2036	Arb-3	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.3M
Totals		$13M		$42M	+$36M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A	BOS	—	204	177	40	9	0	6	17	61	5	0	0	226	312	379	690	153	296	30	8	302	89	-2	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.7
YTD	22	A	BOS	—	204	167	45	11	0	7	27	44	5	0	0	269	387	461	848	192	314	22	13	371	142	+10	+0	+0	+4	+6	1.9
ROS	22	A	BOS	0%	136	122	26	5	0	4	11	39	2	1	0	213	289	352	641	139	286	29	8	293	83	-3	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.4
ROS	22	MLB	BOS	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		292	—	—	286	77	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	22	A	BOS	—	204	178	40	9	0	6	17	61	5	0	0	225	312	376	688	152	293	30	8	302	89	-2	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.7
TOT	22	A	BOS	—	340	299	66	14	0	10	28	100	7	1	0	221	302	368	670	147	287	29	8	299	87	-5	+0	+0	+6	+10	1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	BOS	48%	491	441	98	19	2	14	40	139	7	5	1	222	297	370	667	147	287	28	8	297	86	-8	+1	+0	+9	+14	1.6
2028	24	MLB	BOS	65%	520	465	104	20	2	15	43	144	7	5	2	224	299	372	671	148	288	28	8	302	89	-6	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.8
2029	25	MLB	BOS	73%	520	465	104	20	2	15	43	142	7	5	2	224	299	372	671	148	288	27	8	304	91	-5	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.9
2030	26	MLB	BOS	76%	520	465	105	20	2	16	43	142	7	5	2	226	301	381	682	155	288	27	8	306	92	-5	+0	+0	+9	+15	2.0
2031	27	MLB	BOS	76%	520	464	105	20	2	16	44	142	7	5	2	226	303	381	684	155	288	27	8	306	92	-5	+0	+0	+9	+15	2.0
2032	28	MLB	BOS	76%	520	464	105	20	2	16	44	143	7	5	1	226	303	381	684	155	288	28	8	305	91	-5	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.9
2033	29	MLB	BOS	74%	520	463	104	20	2	15	45	144	7	4	1	225	303	374	677	149	287	28	9	303	90	-6	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.7
2034	30	MLB	BOS	73%	520	463	103	20	2	15	45	145	7	4	1	222	301	371	672	149	285	28	9	300	88	-7	+0	-2	+9	+15	1.5
2035	31	MLB	BOS	73%	504	449	99	19	2	14	43	142	7	3	1	220	299	365	664	145	283	28	9	296	84	-9	+0	-3	+9	+14	1.2
2036	32	MLB	BOS	72%	489	437	93	18	1	13	42	140	7	3	1	213	292	348	640	135	279	29	9	290	80	-11	+0	-4	+9	+14	0.9
2037	33	MLB	BOS	72%	473	424	87	16	1	12	40	138	6	2	1	205	283	333	616	127	275	29	8	283	75	-13	+0	-4	+8	+13	0.4
2027	23	MLB	BOS	48%	237	213	49	10	1	7	19	67	3	2	1	230	302	385	687	155	293	28	8	291	81	-5	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.6
2028	24	MLB	BOS	65%	337	301	69	14	1	10	28	93	5	3	1	229	305	382	687	153	295	28	8	296	85	-6	+0	+0	+6	+10	1.0
2029	25	MLB	BOS	73%	377	338	78	16	1	11	31	103	5	4	1	231	305	382	686	151	295	27	8	298	87	-6	+0	+0	+7	+11	1.2
2030	26	MLB	BOS	76%	396	354	81	16	1	12	33	108	6	4	1	229	305	381	687	153	295	27	8	300	88	-6	+0	+0	+7	+11	1.3
2031	27	MLB	BOS	76%	396	353	81	16	1	12	34	108	6	4	1	229	308	382	690	153	295	27	9	300	88	-6	+0	+0	+7	+11	1.3
2032	28	MLB	BOS	76%	395	352	81	16	1	12	34	108	6	4	1	230	309	384	692	153	294	27	9	299	87	-6	+0	-1	+7	+11	1.2
2033	29	MLB	BOS	74%	386	345	78	16	1	11	33	107	5	3	1	226	303	374	677	148	294	28	9	297	85	-6	+0	-1	+7	+11	1.1
2034	30	MLB	BOS	73%	381	340	76	15	1	11	33	106	5	3	1	224	302	371	672	147	292	28	9	294	83	-7	+0	-2	+7	+11	0.9
2035	31	MLB	BOS	73%	366	326	73	15	1	10	32	103	5	2	1	224	303	368	671	144	290	28	9	290	80	-8	+0	-2	+7	+10	0.7
2036	32	MLB	BOS	72%	354	316	70	14	1	10	30	101	5	2	1	222	299	367	666	146	286	29	8	285	76	-10	+0	-3	+6	+10	0.4
2037	33	MLB	BOS	72%	341	305	65	12	1	9	29	99	4	1	0	213	290	348	637	134	281	29	9	278	71	-11	+0	-3	+6	+10	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3966	3544	801	160	11	115	336	1103	55	32	10	226	303	375	678	149	292	28	8	294	83	-76	+2	-11	+71	+112	10.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	131	26	2	19	55	181	9	5	2	225	302	375	678	150	292	28	8	294	83	-12	+0	-2	+12	+18	1.6
Career	—			—	5733	5122	1133	217	20	165	483	1600	78	47	15	221	298	368	666	147	286	28	8	299	87	-83	+3	-15	+102	+162	17.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	129	25	2	19	55	181	9	5	2	222	300	370	670	148	286	28	8	299	87	-9	+0	-2	+12	+18	2.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#5Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,287	122	36	222	296	369	+77	+36	13.2	11.4
	/162	664	19	6	222	296	369	+11.9	+5.6	2.1	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adonys Guzman (OGILVIE)	22	35→40	48→53	42→47	56	221/302/368	147	287	10	1	29%	8%	87	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Miguel Amaya 2021 · A	22	42	47→50	48→40	46	215/286/350	135	266	15	4	25%	7%	78	+0.2	219/309/349	130	303	13	6	30%	9%	88	+0.9	228/299/368	140	271	16	1	22%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Eddys Leonard 2023 · A	22	44→47	48→55	44→50	42	222/291/369	146	290	16	5	28%	6%	85	+0.7	222/279/379	157	280	19	8	27%	5%	82	+0.5	216/269/391	176	255	23	12	26%	5%	79	+0.2
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→45	48→50	48→50	48	211/295/361	150	263	15	9	26%	8%	85	+0.7	204/282/341	137	270	14	9	29%	7%	74	-0.1	221/296/357	136	275	13	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Max Stassi 2013 · A	22	43	47→55	44→40	40	216/276/351	135	296	16	5	32%	6%	74	-0.1	215/261/351	136	287	16	3	30%	5%	67	-0.5	218/304/386	168	282	22	0	30%	10%	93	+0.6
✕Tyler Ogle 2013 · A	22	47→44	49→50	45→30	44	236/297/382	147	295	17	5	26%	7%	90	+1.0	223/309/365	142	267	16	3	22%	10%	92	+1.2	213/303/363	151	250	19	2	23%	10%	85	+0.5
✕Ian Rice 2017 · A	23	43→39	47→50	43→30	48	212/291/346	133	289	14	4	30%	9%	79	+0.3	204/289/349	145	281	18	3	32%	10%	79	+0.3	185/276/320	135	253	18	0	33%	10%	64	-0.4
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→45	45→55	51→55	44	215/274/342	127	287	12	11	29%	7%	70	-0.3	231/293/393	162	278	19	13	24%	7%	92	+1.2	232/295/411	179	268	22	16	22%	7%	94	+1.3
✕Josh Phegley 2010 · A	22	39→47	48→60	45→40	39	205/248/343	138	248	17	5	26%	4%	59	-1.1	221/259/337	116	278	13	3	25%	4%	62	-0.9	236/279/422	186	260	22	1	19%	4%	92	+0.8
●Hunter Goodman 2022 · A	22	46→44	42→60	50→40	43	219/290/331	112	302	9	7	29%	7%	75	-0.0	208/261/404	196	274	26	4	34%	5%	82	+0.5	224/280/438	214	267	30	4	29%	6%	96	+1.1
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2007 · A	23	42→48	49→55	49→50	43	216/280/366	151	284	17	7	30%	7%	79	+0.3	207/260/378	171	259	21	9	29%	6%	74	-0.1	243/295/401	158	287	19	12	22%	6%	91	+0.9
●Ryan Lavarnway 2010 · A	22	44→45	53→55	43→30	41	226/285/402	176	308	20	3	32%	7%	91	+1.1	228/295/390	162	293	20	2	28%	8%	92	+1.2	224/293/375	150	280	19	1	26%	8%	86	+0.7
✕Rylan Bannon 2018 · A	22	46→42	50	51→50	44	235/298/388	153	288	19	8	25%	7%	93	+1.3	210/279/350	140	281	15	5	29%	8%	75	-0.0	197/295/350	153	257	19	12	30%	11%	80	+0.3
✕Paul Franko 2006 · A	22	45	47→50	44→30	43	224/288/360	136	301	15	3	30%	7%	81	+0.4	210/283/306	96	301	8	3	31%	7%	66	-0.6	193/279/273	80	277	7	0	30%	8%	55	-0.3
✕Freuddy Batista 2022 · A	22	39	53→50	46→40	41	207/269/377	170	278	21	7	33%	7%	78	+0.2	205/265/343	138	300	15	6	35%	6%	67	-0.5	205/257/341	135	285	15	1	32%	5%	59	-0.6
✕Kendall Simmons 2022 · A	22	41	48→50	49→50	39	207/274/357	150	293	15	9	33%	6%	75	-0.0	200/267/348	148	290	17	9	35%	6%	69	-0.4	198/264/347	149	294	17	7	37%	6%	65	-0.2
✕Trevor Craport 2019 · A	22	45	47→50	47→45	42	229/279/366	138	274	14	5	22%	5%	79	+0.3	210/259/323	113	262	10	7	23%	5%	59	-1.1	177/220/268	91	219	6	6	22%	4%	27	-1.5
✕José Caballero 2019 · A	22	47→45	44→45	47→70	45	231/292/348	118	278	10	9	21%	6%	79	+0.3	221/292/340	119	284	12	26	25%	7%	78	+0.2	225/318/339	114	299	10	63	26%	9%	86	+0.5
✕Zachery Almond 2019 · A	23	46	48→55	48→40	40	233/275/372	139	288	16	4	25%	5%	78	+0.2	200/254/305	105	291	10	5	33%	6%	52	-1.6	166/226/256	90	248	8	3	35%	7%	28	-2.0
✕Travis Denker 2008 · A	22	47→51	47→50	44→45	52	234/305/367	134	272	14	5	20%	9%	90	+1.0	225/289/343	118	281	10	5	22%	8%	76	+0.1	227/302/380	153	255	18	0	19%	8%	92	+0.6
✕Tyler Rahmatulla 2012 · A	22	46	45→55	47→45	46	225/283/361	136	278	10	6	22%	7%	79	+0.3	205/265/321	116	263	9	5	25%	7%	61	-1.0	187/250/302	115	237	10	4	25%	6%	47	-0.8