Adonys Guzman — OGILVIE

Adonys GuzmanC Salem RidgeYaks

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 221 lbs A HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION308 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP285

ISO153

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$79M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 39 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT39

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.3	$6M	+$6M
2034	Arb-1	$4M	+1.2	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-2	$5M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$6M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$31M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
YTD	22	A MLE	BOS	—	308	267	57	12	0	10	28	93	7	0	0	213	305	371	675	157	276	30	9	300	89	-4	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A RAW	BOS	—	218	177	48	13	0	9	31	45	5	0	0	271	394	497	892	226	305	21	14	386	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ RAW	BOS	—	90	74	17	2	0	3	13	22	2	0	0	230	360	378	738	149	280	24	14	336	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A MLE	BOS	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		279	33	11	300	89	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	22	A MLE	BOS	—	317	275	58	12	0	10	29	96	7	0	0	211	302	364	666	153	274	30	9	300	89	-4	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BOS	48%	454	404	90	17	2	15	40	126	7	4	1	223	304	386	690	163	282	28	9	307	94	-3	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	65%	490	437	99	19	2	16	43	133	7	4	1	227	306	389	695	162	284	27	9	311	96	-2	+0	+0	+9	+11	1.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	73%	520	462	106	20	2	18	46	140	7	5	1	229	309	398	707	169	284	27	9	313	98	-1	+1	+0	+9	+11	2.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	76%	520	462	106	20	2	18	46	139	7	5	1	229	309	398	707	169	284	27	9	314	99	-1	+1	+0	+9	+11	2.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	BOS	76%	520	461	106	20	2	18	47	140	7	5	1	230	311	399	710	169	284	27	9	314	99	-1	+1	+0	+9	+11	2.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	BOS	76%	520	460	105	20	2	18	48	140	7	4	1	228	311	398	709	170	283	27	9	313	98	-1	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	BOS	74%	520	460	104	20	2	17	48	141	7	4	1	226	309	389	698	163	282	27	9	311	97	-2	+0	-1	+9	+11	1.8
2034	30	MLB MLE	BOS	73%	520	460	103	19	2	17	48	143	7	4	1	224	307	385	692	161	281	28	9	308	95	-3	+0	-2	+9	+11	1.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	BOS	73%	504	446	98	19	1	16	46	140	7	3	1	220	303	374	677	155	279	28	9	304	92	-5	+0	-3	+9	+11	1.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	BOS	72%	489	434	93	17	1	15	45	138	7	2	1	214	298	362	660	147	275	28	9	299	88	-7	+0	-4	+9	+11	0.9
2037	33	MLB MLE	BOS	79%	473	421	88	16	1	14	43	136	6	2	1	209	291	352	643	143	271	29	9	292	84	-9	+0	-4	+8	+10	0.5
2038	34	MLB MLE	BOS	74%	438	389	79	14	1	12	40	128	6	1	0	203	287	337	624	134	264	29	9	283	78	-12	+0	-5	+8	+9	0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	BOS	48%	219	195	45	9	1	7	19	61	3	2	1	231	309	395	704	164	288	28	9	298	94	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	65%	318	282	65	13	1	10	28	87	5	3	1	230	311	390	701	160	289	27	9	302	96	-1	+0	+0	+6	+7	1.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	73%	377	335	76	15	1	12	34	101	5	3	1	227	307	385	693	158	290	27	9	305	98	-1	+0	+0	+7	+8	1.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	76%	396	352	81	16	1	13	35	106	6	3	1	230	310	392	702	162	290	27	9	306	99	-1	+0	+0	+7	+9	1.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	BOS	76%	396	351	81	16	1	13	36	106	6	3	1	231	313	393	706	162	290	27	9	306	99	-1	+0	+0	+7	+9	1.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	BOS	76%	395	350	80	16	1	13	36	107	6	3	1	229	311	391	703	163	289	27	9	305	98	-1	+0	-1	+7	+9	1.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	BOS	74%	386	343	79	16	1	13	35	105	5	3	1	230	311	397	707	166	288	27	9	303	97	-1	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	BOS	73%	381	338	76	15	1	12	35	105	5	3	1	225	307	382	689	157	287	28	9	300	95	-2	+0	-2	+7	+8	1.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	BOS	73%	366	324	72	14	1	11	34	102	5	2	1	222	306	373	679	151	284	28	9	296	92	-3	+0	-2	+7	+8	0.9
2036	32	MLB CTX	BOS	72%	354	314	69	13	1	11	32	100	5	2	0	220	302	373	675	153	281	28	9	291	88	-5	+0	-3	+6	+8	0.7
2037	33	MLB CTX	BOS	79%	371	329	70	13	1	11	34	106	5	1	0	213	296	359	655	146	276	29	9	284	84	-7	+0	-3	+7	+8	0.4
2038	34	MLB CTX	BOS	74%	324	288	60	11	1	9	29	95	4	1	0	208	290	347	637	139	270	29	9	275	78	-9	+0	-4	+6	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4283	3801	854	167	12	135	387	1181	60	29	9	225	306	381	688	157	287	28	9	298	93	-34	+2	-15	+76	+93	12.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	129	25	2	20	59	179	9	4	1	224	305	378	683	154	286	28	9	298	93	-5	+0	-2	+12	+14	1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5977	5304	1178	221	20	194	541	1647	82	43	11	222	304	381	685	159	282	28	9	306	93	-47	+4	-20	+107	+130	17.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	128	24	2	21	59	179	9	5	1	222	304	380	683	158	282	28	9	306	93	-5	+0	-2	+12	+14	1.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	5.9	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
/162	664	24	9	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#4Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	6.9	4,604	149	35	223	301	382	+82	+40	17.2	14.4
/162	664	22	5	+11.9	+5.8	2.5	pk7: 12
#5Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	3.3	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
/162	664	19	8	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adonys Guzman (OGILVIE)	22	34→39	50→55	42→47	58	215/297/367	152	279	10	3	29%	9%	89	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Derek Norris 2011 · A	22	41→51	50→55	44→50	52	209/313/362	153	287	18	6	32%	12%	94	+0.9	209/299/374	165	271	20	11	29%	10%	91	+0.7	258/336/412	153	316	16	5	22%	10%	109	+1.5
✕Max Stassi 2013 · A	22	42→43	48→55	44→40	40	214/273/349	135	292	16	5	32%	6%	75	-0.5	216/262/352	136	287	16	3	30%	5%	72	-0.7	215/301/376	160	280	21	0	29%	10%	91	+0.3
✕Tyler Ogle 2013 · A	22	47→43	49→50	45→30	44	236/297/383	148	295	17	5	26%	7%	92	+0.7	222/308/356	134	269	15	3	22%	10%	90	+0.6	212/302/353	141	254	17	2	23%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Miguel Amaya 2021 · A	22	42→41	46→50	48→40	46	211/282/339	129	262	14	4	25%	7%	77	-0.3	219/310/346	127	298	13	6	29%	9%	89	+0.5	212/319/354	142	290	16	3	30%	10%	93	+0.3
✕Ryan Lavarnway 2010 · A	22	44→46	53→55	43→30	41	226/285/402	176	308	20	3	32%	7%	92	+0.7	231/296/389	158	293	19	2	27%	7%	93	+0.8	227/294/372	145	279	18	1	25%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Travis Jones 2008 · A	22	43→48	51→45	45→50	50	226/309/382	157	269	20	9	24%	9%	97	+1.1	213/287/337	124	280	13	14	27%	8%	78	-0.3	205/280/320	115	273	11	16	28%	8%	69	-0.7
✕Eddys Leonard 2023 · A	22	44→46	48→50	44→50	42	221/289/365	144	293	15	5	29%	6%	85	+0.2	216/274/354	138	278	15	8	27%	5%	76	-0.4	209/263/347	138	261	16	9	26%	5%	69	-0.7
✕Ian Rice 2017 · A	23	43→40	47→50	43→30	48	216/294/353	138	287	15	4	29%	9%	84	+0.2	203/288/334	131	275	15	3	30%	10%	78	-0.3	186/276/303	117	251	14	0	30%	10%	64	-0.7
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→48	47→45	48→50	48	209/292/350	141	261	14	9	25%	8%	83	+0.1	204/281/333	129	269	13	9	28%	7%	75	-0.5	221/295/347	125	275	11	8	22%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Aaron Luna 2009 · A	22	42→45	50	51→45	45	210/316/367	157	290	18	7	32%	8%	97	+1.1	216/320/366	150	270	16	7	25%	8%	98	+1.2	214/321/360	146	266	16	7	24%	8%	95	+0.6
✕Óscar Hernández 2014 · A	21	44	50	42→40	46	227/300/377	150	271	18	4	23%	7%	92	+0.7	203/249/312	109	269	10	4	27%	5%	57	-1.8	162/212/257	95	207	10	1	27%	5%	28	-1.3
✕Darrien Miller 2023 · A	22	38→41	47→45	50→45	48	196/307/325	129	265	16	7	30%	10%	84	+0.2	187/296/284	97	258	8	5	29%	10%	71	-0.8	175/316/278	103	239	9	4	27%	12%	76	-0.2
✕Chris Williams 2019 · A	22	38→32	53→55	47→40	47	207/281/370	163	255	22	4	29%	9%	84	+0.1	181/271/318	137	279	15	4	37%	11%	68	-1.0	176/260/345	169	249	23	4	38%	9%	68	-0.7
✕Jared Keel 2008 · A	23	44→38	51→50	48→45	48	225/305/387	162	279	18	7	26%	8%	96	+1.0	203/288/360	157	251	18	8	26%	9%	84	+0.1	184/277/341	157	222	19	8	26%	9%	74	-0.4
✕Freuddy Batista 2022 · A	22	38	51→50	46→40	41	204/266/362	158	277	19	7	33%	7%	76	-0.4	205/266/337	132	302	13	6	35%	6%	70	-0.8	206/257/336	130	270	16	4	30%	4%	63	-0.6
●Sean Rodríguez 2007 · AA	22	46→49	52→60	48→50	46	235/306/404	170	299	19	12	28%	8%	100	+1.3	229/300/399	170	291	20	10	28%	7%	97	+1.1	234/307/425	191	291	23	12	27%	7%	102	+1.1
✕Michael McKenry 2008 · A	23	46→48	54→55	41→40	49	238/309/421	183	282	21	7	24%	9%	105	+1.7	223/291/376	153	278	17	4	25%	8%	88	+0.4	251/325/430	179	297	23	2	23%	9%	110	+0.8
✕Joey Bart 2020 · AA	23	43	52→50	45→40	38	227/268/392	166	285	21	7	29%	5%	83	+0.1	232/286/370	138	332	16	5	33%	6%	85	+0.2	252/345/396	143	335	17	1	27%	10%	111	+0.9
✕Rylan Bannon 2018 · A	22	46→44	50	51→50	44	235/298/388	153	288	19	8	25%	7%	94	+0.9	217/287/358	141	284	15	5	28%	8%	82	+0.0	191/289/327	136	253	16	12	29%	11%	75	-0.4
✕Travis Denker 2008 · A	22	47→52	47→50	44→45	52	234/305/367	134	272	14	5	20%	9%	91	+0.7	224/289/340	116	280	10	5	22%	8%	78	-0.3	229/306/370	141	260	15	0	18%	8%	92	+0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps