Luke Hanson — OGILVIE

Luke HansonSS Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 22 R/R 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION324 act + 216 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .280 / .372

PA216

HR6

SB6

K%25

BB%6

BABIP279

ISO146

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE48

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$7M		$22M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	2 teams	—	77	68	11	1	0	0	6	34	2	6	2	162	250	176	426	15	314	44	8	196	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	2 teams	—	77	64	13	1	0	0	10	24	2	6	2	203	329	219	548	16	317	31	13	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	TEX	—	324	299	63	13	0	10	18	80	3	10	4	211	263	355	617	144	251	25	6	265	61	-14	+0	+0	+3	+9	-0.1
YTD	22	A+	TEX	—	324	289	71	16	0	12	28	60	3	10	4	246	319	426	744	180	269	19	9	328	109	+3	+0	+0	+3	+9	1.7
ROS	22	A+	TEX	0%	216	199	45	9	1	6	13	54	2	6	2	226	280	372	652	146	268	25	6	281	73	-7	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.2
ROS	22	MLB	TEX	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						270	0	0	275	69	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	22	A+	TEX	—	325	300	63	13	0	10	18	80	3	10	4	210	262	353	615	143	250	25	6	265	61	-14	+0	+0	+3	+9	-0.1
TOT	22	A+	TEX	—	540	498	108	22	1	16	31	134	5	16	6	217	270	361	631	145	262	25	6	271	66	-21	+1	+0	+6	+15	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	TEX	43%	337	309	69	14	1	9	22	82	3	7	3	223	281	362	644	139	272	24	7	288	79	-8	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.5
2028	24	MLB	TEX	58%	411	377	86	17	1	12	27	99	4	9	3	228	287	374	661	146	274	24	7	294	83	-8	+1	+0	+4	+12	0.9
2029	25	MLB	TEX	65%	441	404	92	18	1	13	30	106	4	10	3	228	288	374	661	146	275	24	7	297	85	-7	+1	+0	+5	+12	1.1
2030	26	MLB	TEX	68%	459	420	97	19	2	14	32	110	4	10	4	231	292	386	677	155	275	24	7	298	86	-7	+0	+0	+5	+13	1.1
2031	27	MLB	TEX	68%	461	421	96	19	1	14	32	111	5	11	4	228	290	378	668	150	275	24	7	298	86	-7	+1	+0	+5	+13	1.2
2032	28	MLB	TEX	68%	459	419	96	19	1	14	33	111	4	10	4	229	292	379	671	150	275	24	7	297	86	-7	+0	-1	+5	+13	1.0
2033	29	MLB	TEX	66%	449	410	92	18	1	13	32	109	4	10	3	224	287	368	655	144	274	24	7	296	84	-8	+1	-1	+5	+13	0.9
2034	30	MLB	TEX	66%	439	400	91	18	1	13	32	108	4	9	3	228	291	375	666	147	273	25	7	293	82	-9	+1	-2	+5	+12	0.7
2027	23	MLB	TEX	43%	146	135	30	6	0	4	9	36	1	3	1	222	276	356	631	133	273	25	6	283	75	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2028	24	MLB	TEX	58%	238	218	50	10	1	7	16	57	2	5	2	229	288	381	669	151	276	24	7	289	79	-6	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2029	25	MLB	TEX	65%	286	261	61	12	1	9	20	69	3	6	2	234	296	391	687	157	277	24	7	291	81	-6	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.6
2030	26	MLB	TEX	68%	312	284	65	13	1	9	22	75	3	7	2	229	291	377	668	148	277	24	7	293	82	-6	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.7
2031	27	MLB	TEX	68%	313	285	65	13	1	9	22	75	3	7	2	228	290	375	666	147	277	24	7	293	82	-6	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.7
2032	28	MLB	TEX	68%	312	284	65	13	1	9	22	75	3	7	2	229	291	377	668	148	277	24	7	292	82	-6	+1	-0	+3	+9	0.6
2033	29	MLB	TEX	66%	298	272	62	12	1	9	21	73	3	6	2	228	291	379	669	151	276	24	7	290	80	-7	+0	-1	+3	+8	0.5
2034	30	MLB	TEX	66%	288	262	60	12	1	8	21	71	3	6	2	229	294	374	668	145	275	25	7	288	78	-7	+0	-1	+3	+8	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2194	2002	458	91	7	64	153	531	21	47	15	229	290	377	668	148	278	24	7	290	80	-49	+3	-3	+24	+62	3.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	136	27	2	19	45	157	6	14	4	229	290	378	668	148	279	24	7	290	80	-14	+1	-1	+7	+18	1.2
Career	—			—	3749	3427	775	152	10	108	259	924	36	88	31	226	287	371	658	145	276	25	7	293	82	-76	+5	-4	+40	+106	7.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	135	26	2	19	45	160	6	15	5	227	288	374	662	146	278	25	7	293	82	-13	+1	-1	+7	+18	1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	25	22	8	1	0	0	2	8	1	1	1	364	440	409	849	45	571	32	8	390	157	+2	-0	—	—	+1	0.2
2025	21	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	52	42	5	0	0	0	8	16	1	5	1	119	275	119	394		185	31	15	208	18	-5	+1	—	—	+1	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	8	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
	/162	664	17	4	246	300	398	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#2Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	2,195	64	49	229	287	377	+24	+15	5.1	4.9
	/162	664	20	15	229	287	377	+7.1	+4.5	1.5	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Hanson (OGILVIE)	22	39→44	45→50	52→57	48	217/270/361	145	262	16	16	25%	6%	66	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	47	44→45	55	46	225/302/347	122	301	11	14	27%	8%	83	+0.6	226/284/337	111	307	10	9	28%	5%	73	-0.1	224/280/333	110	298	10	8	27%	5%	68	-0.2
✕José Caballero 2019 · A	22	47→45	44→45	47→70	45	231/292/348	118	278	10	9	21%	6%	79	+0.3	221/292/340	119	284	12	26	25%	7%	78	+0.2	225/318/339	114	299	10	63	26%	9%	86	+0.5
✕Chris Nelson 2008 · A	22	46→52	47→50	53→50	42	228/277/370	142	282	13	13	24%	6%	79	+0.3	226/279/355	129	283	12	12	24%	6%	76	+0.0	244/287/369	125	306	12	6	24%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Blaze Alexander 2021 · A	22	44→48	43→45	51→50	41	215/278/328	113	300	10	11	30%	6%	68	-0.5	198/268/323	125	313	14	12	39%	7%	63	-0.8	237/319/364	126	339	12	15	31%	8%	92	+0.8
✕Phillip Ervin 2014 · A	22	47→50	48→50	54→55	46	235/299/377	141	293	16	14	25%	8%	90	+1.0	211/279/333	122	267	11	20	24%	7%	70	-0.3	232/296/372	140	294	14	21	25%	7%	84	+0.5
✕Rylan Bannon 2018 · A	22	46→42	50	51→50	44	235/298/388	153	288	19	8	25%	7%	93	+1.3	210/279/350	140	281	15	5	29%	8%	75	-0.0	197/295/350	153	257	19	12	30%	11%	80	+0.3
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→45	45→55	51→55	44	215/274/342	127	287	12	11	29%	7%	70	-0.3	231/293/393	162	278	19	13	24%	7%	92	+1.2	232/295/411	179	268	22	16	22%	7%	94	+1.3
✕Seth Mejias-Brean 2013 · A	22	46→52	47→45	53→45	45	232/286/369	137	279	14	8	22%	6%	82	+0.5	234/296/338	104	297	8	5	22%	8%	78	+0.2	233/300/332	99	300	7	5	23%	8%	74	-0.1
✕Miguel Amaya 2021 · A	22	42	47→50	48→40	46	215/286/350	135	266	15	4	25%	7%	78	+0.2	219/309/349	130	303	13	6	30%	9%	88	+0.9	228/299/368	140	271	16	1	22%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2023 · AA	22	46→48	51→55	58→55	37	235/272/402	167	295	18	19	27%	4%	85	+0.7	240/277/395	155	301	17	23	26%	4%	85	+0.7	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
✕Andy Burns 2013 · A	22	41→51	47→50	54→55	41	205/273/349	144	294	13	13	34%	7%	72	-0.2	233/279/364	131	293	11	16	24%	6%	77	+0.1	244/287/365	121	297	10	15	21%	5%	78	+0.2
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→45	48→50	48→50	48	211/295/361	150	263	15	9	26%	8%	85	+0.7	204/282/341	137	270	14	9	29%	7%	74	-0.1	221/296/357	136	275	13	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Ryan Bliss 2022 · A	22	42→48	48→45	50→65	38	215/264/352	136	293	16	16	32%	6%	69	-0.4	208/270/334	126	279	13	32	29%	7%	66	-0.6	221/289/346	125	298	10	43	27%	7%	75	-0.0
●Joshua Rodriguez 2008 · A	23	43→53	50	52→50	47	224/283/376	152	269	17	14	24%	8%	82	+0.5	227/292/343	116	297	10	10	25%	8%	77	+0.1	244/304/360	116	311	11	6	24%	7%	84	+0.5
✕Janelfry Zorrilla 2013 · A	22	45	48→45	49→50	45	226/287/370	144	271	15	11	22%	6%	83	+0.6	223/269/316	93	309	9	6	29%	5%	61	-1.0	224/264/302	78	309	9	3	29%	4%	52	-0.9
✕Leo Jiménez 2023 · A	22	47→49	41→45	49→45	50	221/327/317	97	287	8	9	24%	9%	88	+0.9	227/313/341	114	287	11	7	24%	7%	88	+0.9	227/317/342	114	286	11	5	23%	7%	86	+0.4
✕Drew Gilbert 2023 · A	22	48	47→50	53→45	48	239/298/376	137	272	15	16	19%	7%	89	+1.0	226/295/379	153	275	18	9	24%	8%	89	+1.0	216/291/376	160	255	19	8	23%	8%	84	+0.5
✕Alex Isola 2021 · A	23	46→45	45→50	49→40	44	227/279/348	122	288	12	8	26%	6%	74	-0.1	217/284/369	152	276	20	4	28%	8%	82	+0.5	213/284/361	148	267	20	2	27%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Tyler Rahmatulla 2012 · A	22	46	45→55	47→45	46	225/283/361	136	278	10	6	22%	7%	79	+0.3	205/265/321	116	263	9	5	25%	7%	61	-1.0	187/250/302	115	237	10	4	25%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Eddys Leonard 2023 · A	22	44→47	48→55	44→50	42	222/291/369	146	290	16	5	28%	6%	85	+0.7	222/279/379	157	280	19	8	27%	5%	82	+0.5	216/269/391	176	255	23	12	26%	5%	79	+0.2