Luke Hanson — OGILVIE

Luke HansonSS Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 22 R/R 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION324 act + 216 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .280 / .372

PA216

HR6

SB6

K%25

BB%6

BABIP279

ISO146

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE48

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$9M	+$8M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+1.2	$6M	+$4M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$33M	+$28M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	2 teams	—	77	68	11	1	0	0	6	34	2	6	2	162	250	176	426	15	314	44	8	196	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	2 teams	—	77	64	13	1	0	0	10	24	2	6	2	203	329	219	548	16	317	31	13	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	TEX	—	324	299	63	13	0	10	18	80	3	10	4	211	263	355	617	144	251	25	6	265	61	-14	+0	+0	+3	+9	-0.1
YTD	22	A+	TEX	—	324	289	71	16	0	12	28	60	3	10	4	246	319	426	744	180	269	19	9	328	109	+3	+0	+0	+3	+9	1.7
ROS	22	A+	TEX	0%	216	199	45	9	1	6	13	54	2	6	2	226	280	372	652	146	268	25	6	281	73	-7	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.2
ROS	22	MLB	TEX	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						270	0	0	275	69	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	22	A+	TEX	—	325	300	63	13	0	10	18	80	3	10	4	210	262	353	615	143	250	25	6	265	61	-14	+0	+0	+3	+9	-0.1
TOT	22	A+	TEX	—	540	498	108	22	1	16	31	134	5	16	6	217	270	361	631	145	262	25	6	271	66	-21	+1	+0	+6	+15	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	TEX	43%	568	522	117	23	2	16	36	139	5	12	4	224	281	368	648	144	272	24	6	288	78	-14	+1	+0	+6	+16	0.9
2028	24	MLB	TEX	58%	583	533	122	24	2	17	39	141	6	13	5	229	289	377	666	148	274	24	7	293	83	-11	+1	+0	+6	+17	1.2
2029	25	MLB	TEX	65%	589	538	123	24	2	17	40	141	6	13	5	229	289	375	665	147	275	24	7	296	85	-10	+1	+0	+6	+17	1.4
2030	26	MLB	TEX	68%	588	536	124	24	2	18	41	141	6	13	5	231	293	384	678	153	275	24	7	298	86	-9	+1	+0	+6	+17	1.5
2031	27	MLB	TEX	68%	583	531	122	24	2	17	41	140	6	13	5	230	292	379	671	149	275	24	7	298	86	-9	+1	+0	+6	+17	1.5
2032	28	MLB	TEX	68%	575	523	119	23	2	17	41	139	6	13	4	228	291	377	668	149	275	24	7	297	85	-9	+1	-1	+6	+16	1.4
2033	29	MLB	TEX	66%	567	516	118	23	2	17	41	138	5	12	4	229	292	380	672	151	274	24	7	295	84	-10	+1	-1	+6	+16	1.2
2034	30	MLB	TEX	66%	557	507	114	22	2	16	40	137	5	12	4	225	288	371	659	146	273	25	7	293	82	-11	+1	-2	+6	+16	0.9
2035	31	MLB	TEX	65%	547	498	109	21	1	15	39	136	5	11	4	219	282	355	638	137	271	25	7	289	79	-13	+1	-3	+6	+15	0.6
2036	32	MLB	TEX	65%	537	489	105	20	1	14	38	136	5	10	4	215	278	346	624	131	268	25	7	283	75	-15	+0	-4	+6	+15	0.3
2037	33	MLB	TEX	70%	463	423	90	17	1	12	33	120	4	8	3	213	276	343	619	130	264	26	7	277	70	-16	+0	-4	+5	+13	-0.1
2027	23	MLB	TEX	43%	246	226	51	10	1	7	16	60	2	5	2	226	283	372	654	146	273	24	7	283	74	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2028	24	MLB	TEX	58%	338	310	71	14	1	10	22	82	3	8	3	229	287	377	664	148	276	24	7	288	79	-8	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.6
2029	25	MLB	TEX	65%	382	349	80	16	1	11	26	92	4	9	3	229	290	375	666	146	277	24	7	291	81	-8	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.7
2030	26	MLB	TEX	68%	400	365	83	16	1	12	28	96	4	9	3	227	290	375	665	148	277	24	7	292	82	-8	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.8
2031	27	MLB	TEX	68%	396	361	83	16	1	12	28	95	4	9	3	230	293	380	672	150	277	24	7	292	82	-8	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.8
2032	28	MLB	TEX	68%	391	356	82	16	1	12	28	95	4	9	3	230	294	382	676	152	277	24	7	292	81	-8	+1	-0	+4	+11	0.7
2033	29	MLB	TEX	66%	377	343	78	15	1	11	27	92	4	8	3	227	291	373	665	146	276	24	7	290	80	-8	+0	-1	+4	+11	0.6
2034	30	MLB	TEX	66%	365	333	76	15	1	11	26	90	3	8	3	228	290	378	668	150	275	25	7	287	78	-9	+0	-1	+4	+10	0.4
2035	31	MLB	TEX	65%	356	325	72	14	1	10	25	89	3	7	2	222	283	363	646	142	273	25	7	284	75	-10	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.3
2036	32	MLB	TEX	65%	348	317	69	13	1	9	25	88	3	7	2	218	281	350	631	132	270	25	7	278	71	-11	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.1
2037	33	MLB	TEX	70%	325	296	63	12	1	8	23	84	3	6	2	213	276	341	618	128	266	26	7	272	66	-12	+0	-3	+3	+9	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3925	3582	808	157	11	113	274	963	37	85	29	226	287	370	658	145	275	25	7	287	78	-99	+5	-10	+42	+111	5.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	134	26	2	19	45	159	6	14	5	226	287	373	660	147	275	24	7	287	78	-16	+1	-2	+7	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	6450	5883	1319	255	20	182	448	1596	63	142	51	224	286	367	653	143	275	25	7	290	80	-143	+8	-15	+69	+183	10.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	133	26	2	18	45	161	6	14	5	224	285	366	651	142	276	25	7	290	80	-14	+1	-1	+7	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	25	22	8	1	0	0	2	8	1	1	1	364	440	409	849	45	571	32	8	390	157	+2	-0	—	—	+1	0.2
2025	21	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	52	42	5	0	0	0	8	16	1	5	1	119	275	119	394		185	31	15	208	18	-5	+1	—	—	+1	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
	/162	664	17	9	246	292	387	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,924	112	84	226	284	370	+42	+21	7.1	6.5
	/162	664	19	14	226	284	370	+7.1	+3.6	1.2	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Hanson (OGILVIE)	22	39→44	45→50	52→57	48	217/270/361	145	262	16	16	25%	6%	66	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	47	44→45	55	46	225/302/347	122	301	11	14	27%	8%	83	+0.6	226/284/337	111	307	10	9	28%	5%	73	-0.1	224/280/333	110	298	10	8	27%	5%	68	-0.2
✕José Caballero 2019 · A	22	47→45	44→45	47→70	45	231/292/348	118	278	10	9	21%	6%	79	+0.3	221/292/340	119	284	12	26	25%	7%	78	+0.2	225/318/339	114	299	10	63	26%	9%	86	+0.5
✕Chris Nelson 2008 · A	22	46→52	47→50	53→50	42	228/277/370	142	282	13	13	24%	6%	79	+0.3	226/279/355	129	283	12	12	24%	6%	76	+0.0	244/287/369	125	306	12	6	24%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Blaze Alexander 2021 · A	22	44→48	43→45	51→50	41	215/278/328	113	300	10	11	30%	6%	68	-0.5	198/268/323	125	313	14	12	39%	7%	63	-0.8	237/319/364	126	339	12	15	31%	8%	92	+0.8
✕Phillip Ervin 2014 · A	22	47→50	48→50	54→55	46	235/299/377	141	293	16	14	25%	8%	90	+1.0	211/279/333	122	267	11	20	24%	7%	70	-0.3	232/296/372	140	294	14	21	25%	7%	84	+0.5
✕Rylan Bannon 2018 · A	22	46→42	50	51→50	44	235/298/388	153	288	19	8	25%	7%	93	+1.3	210/279/350	140	281	15	5	29%	8%	75	-0.0	197/295/350	153	257	19	12	30%	11%	80	+0.3
✕Seth Mejias-Brean 2013 · A	22	46→52	47→45	53→45	45	232/286/369	137	279	14	8	22%	6%	82	+0.5	234/296/338	104	297	8	5	22%	8%	78	+0.2	233/300/332	99	300	7	5	23%	8%	74	-0.1
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→45	45→55	51→55	44	215/274/342	127	287	12	11	29%	7%	70	-0.3	231/293/393	162	278	19	13	24%	7%	92	+1.2	232/295/411	179	268	22	16	22%	7%	94	+1.3
✕Miguel Amaya 2021 · A	22	42	47→50	48→40	46	215/286/350	135	266	15	4	25%	7%	78	+0.2	219/309/349	130	303	13	6	30%	9%	88	+0.9	228/299/368	140	271	16	1	22%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Andy Burns 2013 · A	22	41→51	47→50	54→55	41	205/273/349	144	294	13	13	34%	7%	72	-0.2	233/279/364	131	293	11	16	24%	6%	77	+0.1	244/287/365	121	297	10	15	21%	5%	78	+0.2
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→45	48→50	48→50	48	211/295/361	150	263	15	9	26%	8%	85	+0.7	204/282/341	137	270	14	9	29%	7%	74	-0.1	221/296/357	136	275	13	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2023 · AA	22	46→48	51→55	58→55	37	235/272/402	167	295	18	19	27%	4%	85	+0.7	240/277/395	155	301	17	23	26%	4%	85	+0.7	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
✕Ryan Bliss 2022 · A	22	42→48	48→45	50→65	38	215/264/352	136	293	16	16	32%	6%	69	-0.4	208/270/334	126	279	13	32	29%	7%	66	-0.6	221/289/346	125	298	10	43	27%	7%	75	-0.0
●Joshua Rodriguez 2008 · A	23	43→53	50	52→50	47	224/283/376	152	269	17	14	24%	8%	82	+0.5	227/292/343	116	297	10	10	25%	8%	77	+0.1	244/304/360	116	311	11	6	24%	7%	84	+0.5
✕Janelfry Zorrilla 2013 · A	22	45	48→45	49→50	45	226/287/370	144	271	15	11	22%	6%	83	+0.6	223/269/316	93	309	9	6	29%	5%	61	-1.0	224/264/302	78	309	9	3	29%	4%	52	-0.9
✕Drew Gilbert 2023 · A	22	48	47→50	53→45	48	239/298/376	137	272	15	16	19%	7%	89	+1.0	226/295/379	153	275	18	9	24%	8%	89	+1.0	216/291/376	160	255	19	8	23%	8%	84	+0.5
✕Leo Jiménez 2023 · A	22	47→49	41→45	49→45	50	221/327/317	97	287	8	9	24%	9%	88	+0.9	227/313/341	114	287	11	7	24%	7%	88	+0.9	227/317/342	114	286	11	5	23%	7%	86	+0.4
✕Alex Isola 2021 · A	23	46→45	45→50	49→40	44	227/279/348	122	288	12	8	26%	6%	74	-0.1	217/284/369	152	276	20	4	28%	8%	82	+0.5	213/284/361	148	267	20	2	27%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Tyler Rahmatulla 2012 · A	22	46	45→55	47→45	46	225/283/361	136	278	10	6	22%	7%	79	+0.3	205/265/321	116	263	9	5	25%	7%	61	-1.0	187/250/302	115	237	10	4	25%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Eddys Leonard 2023 · A	22	44→47	48→55	44→50	42	222/291/369	146	290	16	5	28%	6%	85	+0.7	222/279/379	157	280	19	8	27%	5%	82	+0.5	216/269/391	176	255	23	12	26%	5%	79	+0.2