Luke Hanson — OGILVIE

Luke HansonSS Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 22 R/R 6'2" / 200 lbs A+ HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION513 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP273

ISO128

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$34M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$17M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A+	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	25	22	8	1	0	0	2	8	1	1	1	364	440	409	849	45	571	32	8	390	150	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.2
2025	21	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	52	42	5	0	0	0	8	16	1	5	1	119	275	119	394		185	31	15	208	27	-5	+1	—	—	+1	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	—	25	23	7	1	0	0	1	10	1	1	1	304	360	348	708	43	515	40	4	296	86	-0	-0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2025	21	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	52	45	4	0	0	0	5	23	1	5	1	89	196	89	285		173	44	10	149	-13	-7	+1	—	—	+1	-0.5
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	77	68	11	1	0	0	6	34	2	6	2	162	250	176	426	15	314	44	8	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	77	64	13	1	0	0	10	24	2	6	2	203	329	219	548	16	317	31	13	267	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	77	69	11	1	0	0	6	34	2	6	2	159	250	174	424	14	284	44	8	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	77	69	11	1	0	0	6	34	2	6	2	159	250	174	424	14	284	44	8	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	TEX	—	513	461	99	16	0	12	36	118	7	14	7	215	282	328	609	113	260	23	7	268	67	-20	+0	+0	+5	+11	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ RAW	TEX	—	449	387	103	19	0	14	50	76	6	14	7	266	359	424	783	158	296	17	11	348	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AA RAW	TEX	—	64	55	7	0	0	1	5	13	1	0	0	127	213	182	395	55	146	20	8	183	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A+ MLE	TEX	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		270	22	11	284	79	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	22	A+ MLE	TEX	—	522	469	100	16	0	12	37	120	7	14	7	213	281	324	605	111	258	23	7	268	67	-20	+0	+0	+6	+11	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TEX	43%	337	305	70	12	1	9	25	76	4	7	3	230	296	364	660	134	274	23	7	294	85	-6	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	TEX	58%	411	372	86	15	1	11	31	91	5	9	4	231	299	366	665	134	276	22	8	299	89	-6	+0	+0	+4	+9	0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	TEX	65%	605	546	129	23	2	17	47	134	7	13	6	236	305	379	684	143	277	22	8	302	91	-7	+0	+0	+6	+13	1.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	TEX	68%	604	545	129	23	2	17	47	133	7	13	6	237	306	380	685	143	277	22	8	303	92	-6	+0	+0	+6	+13	1.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	TEX	68%	599	539	126	22	1	17	48	133	7	13	6	234	305	373	678	139	277	22	8	304	92	-6	+0	+0	+6	+13	1.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	TEX	68%	591	532	123	22	1	16	47	132	7	13	5	231	302	367	669	135	277	22	8	303	91	-6	+1	-1	+6	+13	1.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	TEX	66%	582	524	121	21	1	16	47	131	6	12	5	231	302	366	668	135	276	23	8	301	90	-7	+0	-1	+6	+13	1.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	TEX	66%	439	395	91	16	1	12	36	100	5	9	4	230	303	367	670	137	275	23	8	298	88	-6	+0	-2	+5	+10	0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	TEX	65%	425	383	87	15	1	11	34	98	5	8	3	227	299	358	656	131	273	23	8	295	86	-7	+0	-3	+5	+9	0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	TEX	65%	407	367	82	14	1	10	33	95	4	7	3	223	295	349	643	125	270	23	8	289	82	-9	+0	-4	+4	+9	0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	TEX	70%	377	340	74	12	1	9	30	90	4	6	3	218	289	338	627	121	267	24	8	283	77	-10	+0	-4	+4	+8	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	TEX	43%	146	132	30	5	0	4	11	33	2	3	1	227	297	356	653	129	276	23	8	291	85	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	TEX	58%	238	215	51	9	1	7	18	53	3	5	2	237	305	386	691	149	279	22	8	296	89	-3	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	TEX	65%	392	355	85	15	1	12	30	87	4	8	4	239	306	389	695	149	279	22	8	299	91	-4	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	TEX	68%	411	371	87	15	1	12	32	91	5	9	4	235	304	377	681	143	280	22	8	301	92	-4	+0	+0	+4	+9	1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	TEX	68%	407	367	87	15	1	12	32	90	5	9	4	237	307	381	688	144	280	22	8	301	92	-4	+0	+0	+4	+9	1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	TEX	68%	402	363	86	15	1	12	32	90	4	9	4	237	306	383	689	146	279	22	8	300	91	-4	+0	-0	+4	+9	0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	TEX	66%	387	349	81	14	1	11	31	87	4	8	3	232	302	372	675	140	279	22	8	298	90	-5	+0	-1	+4	+8	0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	TEX	66%	288	260	61	11	1	8	23	65	3	6	2	235	304	377	681	142	278	23	8	296	88	-4	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	TEX	65%	276	249	58	10	1	8	22	64	3	5	2	233	303	378	680	145	276	23	8	292	86	-5	+0	-2	+3	+6	0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	TEX	65%	263	237	53	9	0	7	21	62	3	5	2	224	295	350	645	127	273	24	8	286	82	-6	+0	-2	+3	+6	0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	TEX	70%	265	239	53	9	0	7	21	63	3	5	2	222	293	347	640	126	269	24	8	280	77	-7	+0	-3	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3475	3137	732	127	8	100	273	785	39	72	30	233	303	375	677	141	279	23	8	296	87	-49	+2	-10	+37	+75	5.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	137	24	1	19	51	147	7	13	6	233	302	375	677	141	278	23	8	296	87	-9	+0	-2	+7	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5463	4924	1130	196	13	145	432	1249	63	116	50	229	300	363	663	133	277	23	8	297	87	-76	+3	-15	+58	+117	8.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	134	23	2	17	51	149	7	14	6	229	298	362	659	133	277	23	8	297	87	-9	+0	-2	+7	+14	1.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
/162	664	17	9	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#4Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	5.2	3,476	94	72	231	298	367	+37	+21	8.4	7.7
/162	664	18	14	+7.1	+4.0	1.6	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Hanson (OGILVIE)	22	45→50	42→47	51→56	52	221/287/339	118	270	4	4	23%	7%	79	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕José Caballero 2019 · A	22	48→46	43→45	47→70	45	232/293/349	117	280	10	9	21%	6%	82	-0.0	219/293/329	110	283	9	26	25%	8%	78	-0.3	225/318/339	113	300	10	63	26%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→46	45→55	51→55	44	214/275/343	129	286	12	11	29%	7%	74	-0.5	230/293/385	155	277	18	13	23%	8%	91	+0.6	230/293/400	170	266	20	16	22%	7%	92	+0.7
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	46	44→45	55	46	225/303/346	121	300	11	14	27%	8%	86	+0.3	225/283/333	108	304	9	9	28%	5%	75	-0.5	222/278/328	106	295	10	8	27%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Leo Jiménez 2023 · A	22	46→49	40→45	48→45	49	216/322/312	96	283	8	9	24%	9%	86	+0.3	226/314/335	109	285	10	7	23%	7%	88	+0.4	228/319/335	107	286	10	5	22%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Chris Nelson 2008 · A	22	46→56	47→50	53→50	42	228/277/370	142	282	13	13	24%	6%	81	-0.1	229/282/356	127	285	12	12	23%	6%	80	-0.2	257/301/390	133	311	13	7	21%	5%	91	+0.5
✕Nick Senzel 2017 · A	22	48→57	45→50	51→50	46	230/295/364	133	302	10	16	26%	8%	86	+0.3	251/305/391	140	330	12	14	26%	7%	96	+1.0	256/310/402	146	332	13	16	26%	7%	97	+0.7
✕Brent Morel 2009 · A	22	51→57	43→50	54→50	45	251/298/360	109	298	11	12	20%	6%	86	+0.3	251/287/380	129	292	13	12	18%	5%	86	+0.3	253/289/383	129	290	13	11	17%	4%	85	+0.2
✕Drew Gilbert 2023 · A	22	48	47→50	53→45	48	239/297/376	137	271	15	16	18%	7%	90	+0.6	224/293/368	144	273	16	9	23%	7%	87	+0.4	210/294/357	148	242	16	5	20%	8%	82	+0.0
●Graham Pauley 2023 · A	22	45→51	46→55	48→50	52	226/305/358	133	270	13	12	21%	9%	89	+0.5	230/298/389	159	277	18	11	23%	8%	93	+0.8	222/292/383	160	263	19	11	23%	8%	87	+0.3
✕Seth Mejias-Brean 2013 · A	22	46→53	47→45	53→45	45	232/286/369	137	279	14	8	22%	6%	84	+0.1	238/300/344	106	300	9	5	22%	8%	83	+0.1	237/305/338	101	301	8	5	22%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Dom Keegan 2023 · A	22	48→51	46→45	50→40	42	233/294/368	135	326	14	8	31%	7%	87	+0.4	230/295/357	127	313	12	3	28%	8%	85	+0.2	225/291/352	127	306	12	1	29%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Blaze Alexander 2021 · A	22	45→48	42→45	51→50	42	215/281/322	107	301	9	11	30%	7%	72	-0.7	206/277/331	125	321	14	12	37%	7%	73	-0.6	239/319/362	123	339	12	15	30%	8%	93	+0.6
●Miguel Vargas 2022 · AA	22	50→52	49→55	51→50	45	253/303/401	148	297	17	9	21%	6%	98	+1.2	227/306/381	154	270	16	12	22%	9%	95	+0.9	224/326/406	183	249	21	12	19%	12%	105	+1.6
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2023 · A	21	49→55	41→45	50	49	236/301/348	112	284	7	12	19%	7%	84	+0.2	250/311/362	112	306	9	14	20%	7%	91	+0.7	256/318/360	105	310	9	16	19%	7%	92	+0.5
●Zack Gelof 2022 · A	22	48→50	49→55	54→55	43	235/299/383	148	333	16	17	33%	8%	93	+0.8	233/296/404	171	326	21	20	33%	8%	97	+1.1	229/294/405	176	316	22	24	33%	8%	93	+0.7
✕Phillip Ervin 2014 · A	22	47→51	48→50	54→55	46	237/301/379	142	295	16	14	25%	8%	93	+0.8	207/275/323	116	264	10	20	24%	7%	70	-0.9	235/299/371	136	298	13	21	24%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Steve Tolleson 2006 · A	22	42→52	44→45	50	51	209/292/329	120	248	12	8	20%	9%	78	-0.3	237/309/339	102	303	8	12	22%	9%	86	+0.3	252/311/367	115	300	10	12	18%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Jack Marder 2012 · A	22	48	44→45	49→50	41	233/290/350	117	288	11	12	23%	4%	82	-0.0	238/296/353	115	290	10	13	21%	5%	84	+0.2	236/297/344	109	286	10	12	20%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Andrew Knizner 2017 · A	22	49	44→50	48→40	48	241/316/361	120	271	11	3	16%	6%	94	+0.9	251/299/368	117	287	12	3	17%	5%	88	+0.5	253/300/372	119	287	14	2	17%	5%	88	+0.3
✕J.R. Towles 2006 · A	22	54→53	46→50	49→50	44	264/328/407	143	323	12	15	22%	6%	109	+2.0	249/314/392	143	290	15	12	19%	6%	101	+1.4	237/309/377	140	273	15	11	19%	6%	92	+0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps