Mason Morris — OGILVIE

Mason Morris P Daytona Tortugas

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%21.9%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$28M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD3045

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$6M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$23M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	2	2	4	16	7	1	1	100%	2.0	43.8%	6.2%	37.5%	6.2%	9.00	3.63	—
2025	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	2	2	4	16	7	1	1	100%	2.0	43.8%	6.2%	37.5%	6.2%	9.00	3.63	—
2025	21	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	2	2	4	16	7	1	1	100%	2.0	43.8%	6.2%	37.5%	6.2%	9.00	3.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	23	16	103	467	97	60	12	70%	4.5	15.1%	15.6%	-0.5%	3.6%	5.14	5.79	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	23	16	103	467	97	60	12	70%	4.5	15.1%	15.6%	-0.5%	3.6%	5.14	5.79	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	CIN	21	14	93	430	88	57	12	67%	4.4	20.5%	13.3%	7.2%	2.8%	5.54	4.58	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	CIN	2	2	11	37	9	3	0	100%	5.3	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	0.0%	1.69	2.07	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CIN	23	23	139	587	137	70	17	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.9%	11.4%	3.0%	4.76	4.65	+0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	28	28	168	711	172	78	21	100%	6.0	24.2%	10.9%	13.3%	2.9%	4.56	4.44	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	29	29	175	739	182	76	22	100%	6.0	24.7%	10.3%	14.3%	2.9%	4.41	4.32	+1.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	29	29	175	739	184	76	22	100%	6.0	24.9%	10.2%	14.7%	2.9%	4.33	4.29	+1.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	CIN	28	28	172	728	181	75	22	100%	6.2	24.9%	10.3%	14.6%	3.0%	4.33	4.32	+1.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	CIN	27	27	167	706	175	74	22	100%	6.2	24.8%	10.5%	14.3%	3.1%	4.38	4.41	+1.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	CIN	26	26	160	674	165	72	22	100%	6.1	24.5%	10.7%	13.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.54	+0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	CIN	25	25	150	634	153	70	22	100%	6.0	24.2%	11.0%	13.2%	3.4%	4.62	4.72	+0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	CIN	23	23	140	591	141	67	22	100%	6.1	23.8%	11.3%	12.4%	3.7%	4.80	4.92	-0.0
2036	32	MLB MLE	CIN	21	21	130	547	128	64	21	100%	6.2	23.3%	11.7%	11.6%	3.9%	5.01	5.15	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	68	287	67	34	9	100%	6.2	23.4%	11.9%	11.4%	3.2%	4.89	4.78	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	19	19	118	498	121	55	16	100%	6.2	24.2%	10.9%	13.3%	3.2%	4.69	4.57	+0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	23	23	142	600	148	62	19	100%	6.2	24.7%	10.3%	14.3%	3.2%	4.54	4.45	+1.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	25	25	153	646	161	66	21	100%	6.1	24.9%	10.2%	14.7%	3.2%	4.46	4.42	+1.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	CIN	26	26	156	659	164	68	21	100%	6.0	24.9%	10.3%	14.6%	3.2%	4.46	4.45	+1.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	CIN	25	25	154	650	161	68	22	100%	6.2	24.8%	10.5%	14.3%	3.3%	4.52	4.55	+0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	CIN	24	24	149	629	154	67	22	100%	6.2	24.5%	10.7%	13.8%	3.5%	4.62	4.68	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	CIN	23	23	141	595	144	65	22	100%	6.1	24.2%	11.0%	13.2%	3.7%	4.77	4.87	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	CIN	22	22	133	562	134	64	22	100%	6.0	23.8%	11.3%	12.4%	4.0%	4.96	5.08	-0.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	CIN	20	20	123	519	121	61	22	100%	6.2	23.3%	11.7%	11.6%	4.2%	5.18	5.32	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		219	219	1336	5639	1373	609	196	100%	6.1	24.3%	10.8%	13.5%	3.5%	4.68	4.32	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	206	91	29	100%	6.1	24.3%	10.8%	13.5%	3.5%	4.68	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		25	18	107	483	78	74	18	72%	4.3	16.1%	15.3%	0.8%	3.7%	5.28	5.72	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	34	200	900	145	138	33	72%	4.3	16.1%	15.3%	0.8%	3.7%	5.28	5.72	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Morris (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	21.9%	13.5%	3.0%	—	4.46	24.1%	13.1%	482	-0.54	—	—	—
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	82
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	81
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	80
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	79
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	78
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	78
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	77
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	77
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	77
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	77
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	76
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	76
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	76
Juan Mota R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	21	SP-	4.28	18.4%	14.8%	1.6%	.309	5.10	17.5%	5.8%	111	+0.82	3.89	279	76
Shane Davis R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	20.9%	14.2%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	129	76
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	75
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	75
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	75
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.0	145	24.3%	10.9%	1.23	4.55
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17