Mason Morris — OGILVIE

Mason Morris P Daytona Tortugas

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%22.3%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF6060

CTRL4050

CMD3545

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	2	2	4	16	7	1	1	100%	2.0	43.8%	6.2%	37.5%	6.2%	9.00	3.63	—
2025	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	2	2	4	16	7	1	1	100%	2.0	43.8%	6.2%	37.5%	6.2%	9.00	3.60	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A	Daytona Tortugas	15	9	64	302	65	43	10	60%	4.2	15.9%	16.8%	-0.9%	4.3%	5.65	6.25	-1.2
ROS	22	MLB	CIN	5	5	36	153	34	18	5	100%	7.3	22.3%	11.8%	10.6%	3.0%	4.75	4.75	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.3%	11.8%	10.6%	3.1%	4.80	4.80	—
2026 TOT	22	MLB	CIN	—	—	100	455	99	61	15	—	—	21.8%	13.4%	8.4%	3.2%	5.33	5.70	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CIN	11	11	72	303	72	33	9	100%	6.5	23.9%	10.7%	13.2%	3.0%	4.56	4.46	+0.3
2028	24	MLB	CIN	16	16	100	420	104	42	12	100%	6.2	24.8%	10.1%	14.7%	3.0%	4.39	4.29	+1.3
2029	25	MLB	CIN	19	19	119	501	127	49	15	100%	6.2	25.3%	9.7%	15.6%	2.9%	4.27	4.19	+1.7
2030	26	MLB	CIN	20	20	131	552	141	53	16	100%	6.5	25.5%	9.6%	15.9%	2.9%	4.20	4.16	+1.9
2031	27	MLB	CIN	20	20	129	543	138	52	16	100%	6.4	25.5%	9.7%	15.8%	3.0%	4.20	4.20	+1.8
2032	28	MLB	CIN	20	20	125	527	134	52	16	100%	6.2	25.4%	9.8%	15.5%	3.1%	4.25	4.28	+1.6
2033	29	MLB	CIN	19	19	119	503	126	51	16	100%	6.3	25.1%	10.0%	15.1%	3.2%	4.35	4.41	+1.4
2034	30	MLB	CIN	18	18	112	473	117	49	16	100%	6.2	24.8%	10.3%	14.4%	3.4%	4.49	4.59	+1.1
2035	31	MLB	CIN	16	16	104	441	107	47	16	100%	6.5	24.4%	10.7%	13.7%	3.7%	4.67	4.79	+0.7
2027	23	MLB	CIN	5	5	35	148	35	16	5	100%	7.0	23.9%	10.7%	13.2%	3.1%	4.61	4.51	+0.0
2028	24	MLB	CIN	11	11	69	291	72	29	9	100%	6.3	24.8%	10.1%	14.7%	3.0%	4.43	4.33	+0.3
2029	25	MLB	CIN	15	15	96	405	102	39	12	100%	6.4	25.3%	9.7%	15.6%	3.0%	4.31	4.23	+1.2
2030	26	MLB	CIN	18	18	114	481	123	46	15	100%	6.3	25.5%	9.6%	15.9%	3.0%	4.24	4.20	+1.6
2031	27	MLB	CIN	18	18	116	490	125	47	15	100%	6.4	25.5%	9.7%	15.8%	3.1%	4.25	4.25	+1.6
2032	28	MLB	CIN	18	18	115	486	123	48	15	100%	6.4	25.4%	9.8%	15.5%	3.2%	4.30	4.33	+1.4
2033	29	MLB	CIN	17	17	111	469	118	47	16	100%	6.5	25.1%	10.0%	15.1%	3.3%	4.40	4.46	+1.2
2034	30	MLB	CIN	16	16	105	443	110	46	16	100%	6.6	24.8%	10.3%	14.4%	3.5%	4.54	4.64	+0.9
2035	31	MLB	CIN	15	15	99	418	102	45	16	100%	6.6	24.4%	10.7%	13.7%	3.8%	4.73	4.85	+0.6
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			135	135	861	3636	911	364	118	100%	6.4	25.1%	10.0%	15.1%	3.2%	4.40	4.03	+13.8
/ 200 IP	—			31	31	200	844	212	85	27	100%	6.4	25.1%	10.0%	15.1%	3.2%	4.40	4.03	+3.2
Career	—			17	11	68	318	55	52	14	65%	4.0	17.3%	16.3%	1.1%	4.4%	5.85	6.11	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—			50	33	200	940	163	153	41	65%	4.0	17.3%	16.3%	1.1%	4.4%	5.85	6.11	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Morris (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	22.3%	11.8%	3.0%	—	4.29	24.8%	14.7%	290	-0.46	—	—	—
Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP-	4.03	23.6%	11.1%	2.8%	.312	5.16	22.3%	9.9%	93	+1.13	4.03	152	88
Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP-	4.45	21.5%	12.1%	3.0%	.275	4.09	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.36	3.05	181	87
Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	18.8%	11.2%	3.0%	.295	5.39	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.83	4.56	137	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.53	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.05	4.07	338	82
Ricky Castro R 2028 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP-	3.93	20.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.287	4.58	19.4%	11.0%	140	+0.65	3.90	202	82
Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP-	4.41	21.8%	13.9%	2.5%	.325	4.72	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.31	4.31	174	82
Noah Skirrow R 2027 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	18.4%	11.5%	2.4%	.306	4.68	16.2%	5.7%	316	+0.34	3.90	371	82
Ray Gaither R 2028 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	21.9%	13.2%	3.6%	.314	4.49	18.6%	4.7%	123	-0.42	4.16	164	81
Nick Garcia R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	18.3%	12.3%	2.2%	.274	4.88	17.3%	5.9%	265	+0.57	4.27	384	79
Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.56 FIP	23	SP-	3.56	21.9%	8.3%	2.3%	.284	3.43	20.0%	10.3%	195	-0.13	2.97	258	79
Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.91	439	79
Tyler Uberstine R 2027 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	19.5%	10.5%	2.9%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.01	3.42	237	79
Blair Henley R 2028 · 4.80 FIP	24	SP-	4.80	20.8%	12.2%	3.5%	.450	4.58	17.9%	4.8%	170	-0.22	3.80	187	79
Bryce Conley R 2027 · 4.94 FIP	23	SP-	4.94	20.2%	12.2%	3.7%	.269	4.98	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.04	4.60	529	78
Hunter Gregory R 2027 · 3.98 FIP	23	SP-	3.98	21.2%	8.7%	2.9%	.374	4.64	20.5%	7.6%	188	+0.66	3.18	234	78
Andrew Quezada R 2028 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	18.1%	8.1%	3.2%	.312	4.78	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.43	4.25	412	78
Zach Peek R 2027 · 3.57 FIP	23	SP-	3.57	22.8%	10.1%	2.0%	.339	3.40	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.17	3.40	233	78
Grant Judkins R 2027 · 5.40 FIP	23	SP-	5.40	21.0%	11.2%	4.8%	.346	5.85	16.4%	5.4%	150	+0.45	5.40	322	78
Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP-	4.22	17.8%	10.2%	2.4%	.293	5.23	15.4%	6.7%	157	+1.01	3.46	246	78
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2025 · 4.33 FIP	21	SP-	4.33	17.6%	7.9%	3.1%	.343	6.52	19.2%	11.3%	197	+2.19	3.27	243	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10	105	24.9%	10.1%	1.21	4.37
Vince Velasquez ('23)	9	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	8	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Matt Moore ('24)	8	98	20.5%	9.3%	1.33	4.82
Zack Godley ('20)	6	94	22.1%	9.5%	1.13	4.86