Mason Morris

P Daytona Tortugas

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.4 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#675ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ACIN	2	2	4	9.00	3.60	43.8%	6.2%	—	K 43.8% · BB 6.2% · FIP 3.63
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	16	103	5.14	4.47	20.8%	12.8%	—	K 15.1% · BB 15.6% · FIP 5.79
2027PROJ	23	MLBCIN	—	—	0	5.68	5.68	17.6%	15.6%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCIN	6	6	40	5.48	5.34	19.9%	13.5%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCIN	10	10	64	5.18	5.04	21.3%	12.2%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$1M2034Arb-3$1.0M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJacob Meador (age 23) · Carlos Marmol (age 23) · Cobi Johnson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.68

FIP5.68

K%17.6%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%2.1%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	2	2	4	16	7	1	1	100%	2.0	43.8%	6.2%	37.5%	6.2%	9.00	3.63	—
2025	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	2	2	4	16	7	1	1	100%	2.0	43.8%	6.2%	37.5%	6.2%	9.00	3.63	—
2025	21	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	2	2	4	16	7	1	1	100%	2.0	43.8%	6.2%	37.5%	6.2%	9.00	3.60	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	103	467	97	60	12	70%	4.5	15.1%	15.6%	-0.5%	3.6%	5.14	5.79	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	103	467	97	60	12	70%	4.5	15.1%	15.6%	-0.5%	3.6%	5.14	5.79	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	103	467	97	60	12	70%	4.5	20.8%	12.8%	7.9%	2.6%	5.14	4.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.6%	15.6%	2.1%	3.1%	5.68	5.68	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	92	391	78	53	12	100%	6.2	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	3.1%	5.34	5.20	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	97	410	87	50	13	100%	6.1	21.3%	12.2%	9.1%	3.1%	5.05	4.91	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	103	434	96	52	13	100%	6.0	22.2%	12.0%	10.2%	3.1%	4.89	4.80	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	99	419	93	50	13	100%	6.2	22.1%	11.9%	10.2%	3.1%	4.85	4.83	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	94	398	88	48	13	100%	6.3	22.0%	12.1%	9.9%	3.2%	4.89	4.91	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	88	370	81	46	12	100%	6.3	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	3.4%	4.98	5.04	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	80	337	72	42	12	100%	6.1	21.4%	12.6%	8.8%	3.6%	5.12	5.22	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	40	169	34	23	6	100%	6.7	19.9%	13.5%	6.4%	3.3%	5.48	5.34	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	64	270	58	33	9	100%	6.4	21.3%	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	5.18	5.04	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	13	13	81	342	76	41	11	100%	6.2	22.2%	12.0%	10.2%	3.3%	5.02	4.93	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	85	359	79	43	12	100%	6.1	22.1%	11.9%	10.2%	3.4%	4.99	4.97	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	84	355	78	43	12	100%	6.0	22.0%	12.1%	9.9%	3.5%	5.03	5.05	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	CIN	13	13	80	338	74	42	12	100%	6.2	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	3.6%	5.13	5.19	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	73	308	66	39	12	100%	6.1	21.4%	12.6%	8.8%	3.8%	5.28	5.38	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	82	507	2139	464	263	74	100%	6.2	21.7%	12.3%	9.4%	3.5%	5.13	4.73	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	183	104	29	100%	6.2	21.7%	12.3%	9.4%	3.5%	5.13	4.73	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		25	18	107	483	78	74	18	72%	4.3	16.1%	15.3%	0.8%	3.7%	5.28	5.72	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	34	200	900	145	138	33	72%	4.3	16.1%	15.3%	0.8%	3.7%	5.28	5.72	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADaytona Tortugas · 93 IPFIP 4.58 → 5.79 (+1.21)K% 20.5% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.47%	—	×0.740	15.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.26%	—	×1.180	15.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.79%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.63%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.58 → 5.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Dayton Dragons · 11 IPFIP 2.07 → 2.70 (+0.63)K% 24.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.32%	—	×0.770	18.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.11%	—	×1.150	9.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.07 → 2.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Morris (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.96	21.2%	8.6%	292	-0.72	—	—	—
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	92
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	89
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	89
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	87
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	87
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	86
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	86
Chase Cohen R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.22	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.47	3.52	263	85
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	85
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	85
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	84
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	83
Joe Nathan R 2000 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP-	5.19	14.3%	13.8%	2.8%	.262	3.30	26.3%	16.8%	79	-1.89	1.25	929	83
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	83
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	83
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	82
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	82
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	82
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	82
Aaron Davenport R 2023 · 6.16 FIP	23	SP-	6.16	14.3%	14.7%	4.4%	.272	4.43	17.9%	8.1%	276	-1.73	4.04	498	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	93	21.1%	12.8%	1.23	5.09
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64