JP Wheat

P South Bend Cubs

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #644

ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	12	12	22	7.25	6.14	16.0%	28.8%	—	K 10.6% · BB 35.8% · FIP 6.74
2025	22	ACHC	7	5	33	4.09	3.43	24.6%	15.9%	—	K 18.2% · BB 18.8% · FIP 4.50
2026	23	A+CHC	27	0	30	8.90	5.51	22.7%	30.1%	—	K 17.5% · BB 34.6% · FIP 6.00
2027PROJ	24	MLBCHC	86	0	90	5.66	5.66	20.8%	20.0%	-1.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCHC	37	0	39	5.34	5.22	22.2%	17.3%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBCHC	58	0	61	5.15	5.07	23.0%	16.6%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Command30FB velo70

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsKris Hall (age 24) · Noah Murdock (age 24) · Kevin Kopps (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 124

ERA5.66

FIP5.66

K%20.8%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.7%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5560

CMD2030

K†5060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	22	125	20	36	0	100%	1.9	10.6%	35.8%	-25.2%	0.0%	7.25	6.74	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	22	125	20	36	0	100%	1.9	10.6%	35.8%	-25.2%	0.0%	7.25	6.74	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	22	125	20	36	0	100%	1.9	16.0%	28.8%	-12.8%	0.0%	7.25	6.14	—
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	7	5	33	138	34	22	1	71%	4.7	18.2%	18.8%	-0.6%	1.0%	4.09	4.50	—
2025	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	7	5	33	138	34	22	1	71%	4.7	18.2%	18.8%	-0.6%	1.0%	4.09	4.50	—
2025	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	7	5	33	138	34	22	1	71%	4.7	24.6%	15.9%	8.7%	0.7%	4.09	3.43	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	27	0	30	163	37	49	0	0%	1.1	17.5%	34.6%	-17.1%	0.0%	8.90	6.00	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	27	0	30	163	37	49	0	0%	1.1	17.5%	34.6%	-17.1%	0.0%	8.90	6.00	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	27	0	30	163	37	49	0	0%	1.1	22.7%	30.1%	-7.4%	0.0%	8.90	5.51	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CHC	86	0	90	380	79	76	10	0%	1.0	20.8%	20.0%	0.7%	2.6%	5.66	5.66	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	87	0	91	385	85	67	10	0%	1.0	22.2%	17.3%	4.8%	2.6%	5.34	5.22	-0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	87	0	91	385	88	64	10	0%	1.0	23.0%	16.6%	6.4%	2.6%	5.15	5.07	-0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	85	0	90	379	87	61	10	0%	1.1	22.9%	16.2%	6.7%	2.7%	5.09	5.07	-0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	83	0	87	367	84	59	10	0%	1.0	22.8%	16.1%	6.7%	2.8%	5.11	5.13	-0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	CHC	79	0	83	351	79	57	10	0%	1.1	22.6%	16.4%	6.2%	2.9%	5.20	5.26	-0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	CHC	74	0	78	330	80	52	10	0%	1.1	24.2%	15.9%	8.3%	3.1%	5.18	5.17	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	37	0	39	165	37	29	4	0%	1.1	22.2%	17.3%	4.8%	2.6%	5.34	5.22	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	58	0	61	258	59	43	7	0%	1.1	23.0%	16.6%	6.4%	2.6%	5.15	5.07	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	66	0	69	291	67	47	8	0%	1.0	22.9%	16.2%	6.7%	2.7%	5.09	5.07	-0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	70	0	73	308	70	50	9	0%	1.0	22.8%	16.1%	6.7%	2.8%	5.11	5.13	-0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	CHC	70	0	73	308	70	50	9	0%	1.0	22.6%	16.4%	6.2%	2.9%	5.20	5.26	-0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	CHC	67	0	70	296	72	47	9	0%	1.0	24.2%	15.9%	8.3%	3.1%	5.18	5.17	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		367	0	385	1626	374	266	46	0%	1.0	23.0%	16.3%	6.7%	2.8%	5.17	4.77	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	138	24	0%	1.1	23.0%	16.3%	6.7%	2.8%	5.17	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		46	17	86	426	67	127	1	37%	1.9	15.7%	29.8%	-14.1%	0.3%	6.62	5.73	-3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		107	40	200	995	156	297	3	37%	1.9	15.7%	29.8%	-14.1%	0.3%	6.62	5.73	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
JP Wheat (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.66	20.8%	20.0%	2.6%	—	5.12	22.7%	6.0%	272	-0.54	—	—	—
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	82
Noah Murdock R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.8%	17.1%	1.8%	.314	3.13	23.1%	9.6%	148	-1.43	2.57	310	79
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	78
Yoel Espinal R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	21.4%	23.1%	2.1%	.255	4.24	22.9%	10.0%	99	-1.13	3.86	231	77
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	77
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	77
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	76
Corey Avant R 2024 · 4.76 FIP	22	SW	4.76	17.1%	14.9%	2.2%	.394	4.57	19.9%	6.4%	221	-0.19	3.69	292	76
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	76
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	76
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.54	19.0%	8.4%	155	-0.01	3.33	268	76
Will Bednar R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	24	SW	6.40	23.8%	23.1%	4.3%	.240	3.83	25.5%	9.4%	115	-2.57	3.38	202	76
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	75
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	75
Austin Vernon R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	24	SW	5.75	22.1%	16.8%	4.3%	.325	3.68	23.3%	10.0%	100	-2.07	3.37	261	75
Antonio Knowles R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	20.9%	15.1%	2.4%	.250	3.28	20.9%	11.7%	66	-1.30	3.24	223	75
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	74
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	74
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	74
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	22.6%	17.0%	1.06	5.25
George Smith ('26-'30, -3 WAR*)	1.7	66	22.6%*	14.5%*	1.13*	5.29*
John D'Acquisto ('73-'82, -3 WAR*)	3.9	97	25.1%*	15.1%*	0.92*	5.36*
Dave Cole ('50-'55, -2 WAR*)	1.2	79	19.9%*	16.7%*	0.72*	5.37*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70