Jared Jones

1B Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 23 R/R 6'5" / 246 lbs A+ HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2390ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	A+PIT	58	.160/.276/.420	4	0	22	—	.115/.207/.308
2026	22	A+/APIT	381	.315/.416/.562	23	0	107	—	.249/.318/.440
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBPIT	1	.220/.290/.399	0	0	96	-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBPIT	89	.223/.293/.403	4	1	98	0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBPIT	154	.224/.295/.404	6	1	99	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

wOBA93

wRC+92

ISO91

BB%69

Chase%47

Whiff%30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 89%

CompsSergio Pedroza (age 23) · Juan Yepez (age 24) · Ryan Strieby (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†96

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .290 / .399

PA1

HR0

K%30

BB%8

BABIP280

ISO185

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	58	50	8	1	0	4	6	26	2	0	0	160	276	420	696	260	200	45	10	310	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	358	305	95	9	0	23	50	105	2	0	0	311	412	567	979	256	404	29	14	427	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	23	19	7	2	0	0	4	5	0	0	0	368	478	474	952	105	500	22	17	430	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	58	52	6	1	0	3	4	34	2	0	0	115	207	308	515	192	173	59	7	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	358	325	80	7	0	19	30	137	2	0	0	246	314	443	757	197	358	38	8	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	23	20	6	2	0	0	3	7	0	0	0	300	391	400	791	100	443	30	13	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	58	52	6	1	0	3	4	34	2	0	0	115	207	308	515	192	200	59	7	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	58	50	8	1	0	4	6	26	2	0	0	160	276	420	696	260	200	45	10	310	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	381	345	87	9	0	19	33	144	2	0	0	252	321	443	765	191	372	38	9	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	381	324	102	11	0	23	54	110	2	0	0	315	416	562	978	247	411	29	14	427	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	58	52	6	1	0	3	4	34	2	0	0	115	207	308	515	192	173	59	7	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	381	343	87	9	0	19	33	144	2	0	0	254	321	446	767	192	363	38	9	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	58	52	6	1	0	3	4	34	2	0	0	115	207	308	515	192	173	59	7	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	381	343	87	9	0	19	33	144	2	0	0	254	321	446	767	192	363	38	9	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	PIT	0%	462	418	94	14	2	21	37	142	4	5	1	223	292	412	705	189	280	31	8	311	96	-2	+1	-2	-8	+10	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	PIT	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	220	290	399	689	179	280	0	0	305	96	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	PIT	30%	294	266	60	9	1	13	24	89	2	3	1	226	295	415	711	190	281	30	8	313	98	-1	+0	-1	-5	+6	-0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	PIT	44%	348	313	71	11	1	15	29	103	3	3	1	227	297	416	714	190	282	30	8	315	99	-0	+0	-1	-6	+8	0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	PIT	51%	379	342	78	12	1	17	31	111	3	3	1	228	298	416	714	188	282	29	8	315	99	-0	+0	-1	-7	+8	0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	PIT	52%	391	353	80	12	1	17	32	114	3	3	1	227	298	412	711	185	282	29	8	314	99	-1	+0	-1	-7	+8	-0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	PIT	53%	393	354	80	13	1	16	33	114	3	2	1	226	297	407	704	181	281	29	8	311	97	-1	+0	-2	-7	+9	-0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	PIT	53%	386	348	78	12	1	16	32	113	3	2	1	223	294	400	694	177	279	29	8	307	94	-3	+0	-3	-7	+8	-0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	PIT	52%	376	339	74	11	1	15	31	111	3	1	3	220	290	391	681	171	276	30	8	302	90	-4	-1	-3	-7	+8	-0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	PIT	30%	89	81	18	3	0	4	7	27	1	1	0	223	293	403	696	180	281	30	8	308	98	-0	+0	-0	-2	+2	0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	PIT	44%	154	139	31	5	1	6	13	46	1	1	0	224	295	404	699	180	282	30	8	309	99	-0	+0	-0	-3	+3	0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	PIT	51%	192	172	39	6	1	8	16	56	2	1	0	225	296	403	699	179	282	29	8	309	99	-0	+0	-1	-3	+4	0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	PIT	52%	205	184	42	7	1	8	17	60	2	1	0	225	296	400	696	176	282	29	8	308	99	-0	+0	-1	-4	+4	0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	PIT	53%	210	189	43	7	1	8	17	61	2	1	0	223	295	395	690	172	281	29	8	306	97	-1	+0	-1	-4	+5	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	PIT	53%	203	182	42	7	1	8	17	59	2	1	1	221	292	389	680	168	278	29	8	302	94	-1	-0	-1	-4	+4	-0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	PIT	52%	196	177	39	6	1	7	16	58	1	1	1	217	287	380	667	163	276	30	8	297	90	-2	-0	-2	-4	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1249	1124	254	41	6	49	103	367	11	7	2	226	297	404	701	178	287	29	8	305	96	-5	+1	-6	-22	+27	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	132	21	3	26	54	191	6	4	1	226	298	405	703	179	286	29	8	305	96	-3	+0	-3	-12	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3216	2901	656	96	8	140	266	997	26	19	10	226	297	410	706	183	290	31	8	311	96	-11	-0	-12	-50	+60	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	132	19	2	28	54	202	5	4	2	225	296	408	704	183	290	31	8	311	96	-3	-0	-3	-12	+14	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 358 PAwOBA .416 → .326 (−90)K% 29.3% → 38.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.33%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	38.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.97%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.998	8.36%
HBP% /PA	0.56%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	0.43%
Singles /BIP	31.50%	÷1.000	×0.870	×1.050	×0.998	28.72%
Doubles /BIP	4.50%	÷1.000	×0.780	×1.050	×0.998	3.68%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.050	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.50%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.998	10.10%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .416 → .326; ISO .256 → .211; BABIP .404 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ABradenton Marauders · 23 PAwOBA .420 → .335 (−84)K% 21.7% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.74%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	29.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.39%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	11.88%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	0.00%
Singles /BIP	35.71%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.990	32.53%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.990	11.74%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .420 → .335; ISO .105 → .083; BABIP .500 → .443. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 58 PAwOBA .301 → .200 (−102)K% 44.8% → 59.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	44.83%	÷0.994	×1.310	—	—	59.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.34%	÷0.980	×0.600	—	×1.012	6.41%
HBP% /PA	3.45%	—	×0.770	—	×1.012	2.69%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷0.950	×0.870	—	×1.012	11.59%
Doubles /BIP	4.17%	÷0.998	×0.780	—	×1.012	3.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.025	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	16.67%	÷1.048	×0.880	—	×1.012	14.16%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 105, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .301 → .200; ISO .260 → .169; BABIP .200 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	5.2	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
/162	664	31	2	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#2Cory Snyder'86-'94 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,933 PA	5.9	3,933	149	28	243*	290*	445*	-35	-18	4.7	5.7
/162	664	25	5	-5.9	-3.0	0.8	pk7: 7
#3Bob Oliver'65-'75 * career totals — 6 seasons, 3,123 PA	4.7	3,123	94	17	260*	297*	445*	-35	-17	3.4	3.9
/162	664	20	4	-7.4	-3.6	0.7	pk7: 4
#4Steve Balboni'81-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,440 PA	5.2	3,440	181	1	227*	293*	471*	-69	-19	2.6	3.3
/162	664	35	0	-13.3	-3.7	0.5	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.9	1,250	53	8	226	293	409	-22	-12	0.7	0.7
/162	664	28	4	-11.9	-6.4	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Seth Brownlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,799 PA	2.7	1,799	74	24	227	293	421	-23	-34	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	27	9	-8.6	-12.4	-0.3	pk7: -1
#6Rowdy Tellezlast yr '25 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,617 PA	3.9	2,617	122	5	234	300	437	-47	-55	-1.6	-1.1
/162	664	31	1	-11.9	-14.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jared Jones (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	221/290/408	187	280	9	2	31%	8%	96	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Sergio Pedroza 2007 · A	23	42→46	56→60	38→45	48	221/315/416	195	294	24	3	32%	10%	107	+1.8	229/303/389	160	305	18	7	29%	8%	96	+1.0	227/297/375	148	293	16	7	27%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Juan Yepez 2022 · AAA	24	44→49	57→60	39→45	47	237/307/438	201	277	26	4	25%	8%	109	+2.0	234/292/406	172	275	21	3	23%	7%	95	+1.0	232/290/385	153	271	19	3	22%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Ryan Strieby 2009 · A	23	42→45	54→60	43→40	46	223/287/401	178	268	22	3	26%	8%	93	+0.8	231/303/400	169	308	21	4	30%	8%	98	+1.2	226/302/382	156	315	20	3	33%	9%	90	+0.4
✕Justin Foscue 2022 · AA	23	44→48	59→55	43→50	40	232/305/445	213	313	27	5	34%	7%	110	+2.1	236/316/397	161	272	17	7	20%	9%	102	+1.5	232/321/385	153	262	16	7	18%	10%	99	+0.9
✕Jhonkensy Noel 2024 · AAA	23	37→42	52→55	41→45	40	203/265/366	163	260	22	3	31%	6%	76	-0.4	209/265/378	169	271	22	3	31%	6%	80	-0.2	201/256/375	174	256	24	1	32%	5%	73	-0.4
✕MJ Melendez 2022 · AAA	23	40→48	61→60	40→50	46	223/295/441	219	278	30	5	32%	9%	105	+1.7	225/305/410	185	278	22	6	26%	10%	101	+1.4	217/299/394	178	268	20	5	26%	10%	96	+1.0
✕Jamie Romak 2009 · AA	23	39→48	54→55	39→45	41	206/280/385	179	292	22	2	36%	8%	86	+0.3	202/262/336	134	270	15	4	30%	6%	68	-1.0	202/257/379	177	268	21	5	33%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Allan Cerda 2022 · A	22	40→25	53→55	39→45	40	204/285/385	180	305	20	5	38%	8%	88	+0.5	177/277/336	159	278	19	7	40%	10%	75	-0.5	147/260/300	153	223	20	7	41%	11%	58	-0.9
✕Abimelec Ortiz 2024 · A	22	39→42	58→60	43→40	40	213/276/412	199	288	28	4	36%	7%	91	+0.7	216/281/389	173	272	22	3	28%	7%	88	+0.4	206/277/374	167	248	21	2	26%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Yazy Arbelo 2013 · AA	25	35→31	57→60	38→30	39	197/263/386	188	271	26	2	37%	7%	81	-0.1	208/271/354	146	301	18	5	35%	7%	76	-0.4	160/239/257	97	243	12	0	37%	7%	42	-0.6
✕Kyle Wilson 2006 · A	23	46	55→60	38→30	38	239/286/424	185	309	24	4	31%	5%	98	+1.2	216/259/333	117	277	12	4	26%	4%	66	-1.1	194/230/280	86	245	7	0	24%	2%	40	-1.4
✕Jabari Henry 2015 · A	24	42→41	52→55	41→45	49	217/297/388	171	275	20	6	28%	9%	93	+0.8	188/261/333	145	260	17	6	33%	8%	68	-1.0	153/227/285	132	210	17	5	35%	8%	41	-1.8
✕Seth Beer 2021 · AA	24	47→46	53→55	38→30	41	242/312/410	168	298	22	3	26%	5%	105	+1.7	220/309/361	141	268	15	2	23%	7%	93	+0.8	208/299/335	127	258	13	0	24%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Bobby Dalbec 2020 · AAA	25	36→42	54→60	41→50	41	195/275/366	171	281	23	5	38%	8%	81	-0.1	223/293/432	209	301	28	5	35%	8%	103	+1.5	212/285/410	198	297	28	9	37%	8%	94	+0.7
●Mark Vientos 2022 · AAA	22	43→51	56→60	38→30	37	228/276/415	187	306	25	3	34%	6%	92	+0.7	246/303/435	189	333	25	2	32%	7%	107	+1.8	247/307/448	201	309	26	1	28%	7%	110	+1.8
✕Kellen Kulbacki 2009 · A	23	47→46	56→60	38→30	50	248/319/433	185	284	25	4	22%	8%	112	+2.2	218/274/334	116	262	12	6	21%	7%	72	-0.7	189/233/258	68	230	4	5	19%	5%	35	-0.8
✕Joe Koshansky 2006 · AA	24	42→48	60→55	41→40	39	232/284/444	212	294	29	5	32%	6%	102	+1.5	236/295/420	184	312	24	4	31%	7%	100	+1.3	233/295/416	183	313	23	2	32%	8%	97	+1.1
✕Ibandel Isabel 2019 · A	24	40→37	56→55	39→30	31	199/254/376	177	343	26	2	48%	6%	75	-0.5	191/248/361	170	343	24	3	49%	6%	69	-0.9	161/220/324	162	281	25	0	50%	6%	47	-1.3
✕Christopher Cook 2006 · A	23	39	53→55	41→45	36	206/259/369	163	298	22	3	38%	6%	75	-0.5	201/262/308	107	318	11	6	38%	6%	61	-1.5	194/256/287	92	310	10	8	38%	7%	50	-1.2
✕Kiel Roling 2010 · A	23	49→37	54→55	42→30	40	250/299/431	181	331	22	3	31%	6%	103	+1.6	213/261/362	149	299	18	3	34%	6%	74	-0.6	199/248/357	158	262	21	1	32%	5%	66	-0.8

Jared Jones

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps