Eli Jerzembeck

P South Bend Cubs

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #510

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2030MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX2 levels	20	4	36	6.75	5.24	22.9%	15.1%	—	K 17.3% · BB 17.4% · FIP 6.18
2027PROJ	24	MLBCHC	86	0	90	5.65	5.65	18.7%	15.9%	-1.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCHC	37	0	39	5.34	5.23	20.2%	13.8%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBCHC	58	0	61	5.16	5.09	21.1%	13.3%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command50FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsVictor Santos (age 24) · Dylan Spacke (age 24) · David Trexler (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.65

FIP5.65

K%18.7%

BB%15.9%

K-BB%2.8%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CMD3050

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	4	36	179	41	27	6	20%	1.8	17.3%	17.4%	-0.1%	4.2%	6.75	6.18	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	4	36	179	41	27	6	20%	1.8	17.3%	17.4%	-0.1%	4.2%	6.75	6.18	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	4	36	179	41	27	6	20%	1.8	22.9%	15.1%	7.8%	3.4%	6.75	5.24	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CHC	86	0	90	380	71	61	12	0%	1.0	18.7%	15.9%	2.8%	3.1%	5.65	5.65	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	87	0	91	385	78	53	12	0%	1.0	20.2%	13.8%	6.4%	3.1%	5.34	5.23	-0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	87	0	91	385	81	51	12	0%	1.0	21.1%	13.3%	7.8%	3.1%	5.16	5.09	-0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	85	0	90	379	80	50	12	0%	1.1	21.1%	13.1%	8.0%	3.2%	5.10	5.09	-0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	83	0	87	367	77	48	12	0%	1.0	21.0%	13.1%	7.9%	3.2%	5.12	5.15	-0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	CHC	79	0	83	351	73	47	12	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.3%	7.4%	3.4%	5.22	5.28	-0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	CHC	74	0	78	330	74	42	12	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.8%	9.6%	3.6%	5.20	5.19	-0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	37	0	39	165	33	23	5	0%	1.1	20.2%	13.8%	6.4%	3.1%	5.34	5.23	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	58	0	61	258	54	34	8	0%	1.1	21.1%	13.3%	7.8%	3.1%	5.16	5.09	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	66	0	69	291	62	38	9	0%	1.0	21.1%	13.1%	8.0%	3.2%	5.10	5.09	-0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	70	0	73	308	65	40	10	0%	1.0	21.0%	13.1%	7.9%	3.2%	5.12	5.15	-0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	CHC	70	0	73	308	64	41	10	0%	1.0	20.8%	13.3%	7.4%	3.4%	5.22	5.28	-0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	CHC	67	0	70	296	66	38	11	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.8%	9.6%	3.6%	5.20	5.19	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		367	0	385	1626	344	215	53	0%	1.0	21.2%	13.2%	8.0%	3.3%	5.18	4.79	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	112	28	0%	1.1	21.2%	13.2%	8.0%	3.3%	5.18	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		20	4	36	179	31	31	8	20%	1.8	17.3%	17.4%	-0.1%	4.2%	6.75	6.18	-3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	22	200	994	172	173	42	20%	1.8	17.3%	17.4%	-0.1%	4.2%	6.75	6.18	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eli Jerzembeck (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.65	18.7%	15.9%	3.1%	—	5.14	20.8%	7.4%	272	-0.51	—	—	—
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	83
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	83
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	82
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	82
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	81
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	81
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	80
Corey Avant R 2024 · 4.76 FIP	22	SW	4.76	17.1%	14.9%	2.2%	.394	4.57	19.9%	6.4%	221	-0.19	3.69	292	80
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	80
Noah Murdock R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.8%	17.1%	1.8%	.314	3.13	23.1%	9.6%	148	-1.43	2.57	310	80
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	80
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.54	19.0%	8.4%	155	-0.01	3.33	268	79
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	79
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	79
Austin Vernon R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	24	SW	5.75	22.1%	16.8%	4.3%	.325	3.68	23.3%	10.0%	100	-2.07	3.37	261	79
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	79
John Matthews R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	16.5%	13.0%	2.1%	.264	5.00	14.5%	-0.5%	70	+0.49	4.51	213	79
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	78
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	78
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	20.7%	13.6%	1.26	5.26
Jake Wade ('36-'46, -1 WAR*)	3.3	84	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.08*	5.03*
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
George Smith ('26-'30, -3 WAR*)	1.7	66	22.6%*	14.5%*	1.13*	5.29*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70