Jay Dill — OGILVIE

Jay Dill P Midland RockHounds

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 240 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%21.7%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	6	0	8	33	12	5	0	0%	1.3	36.4%	15.2%	21.2%	0.0%	3.52	1.95	—
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	6	0	8	33	12	5	0	0%	1.3	36.4%	15.2%	21.2%	0.0%	3.52	1.95	—
2025	22	A RAW	Stockton Ports	6	0	8	33	12	5	0	0%	1.3	36.4%	15.2%	21.2%	0.0%	3.52	1.93	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	46	0	55	250	65	34	5	0%	1.2	19.5%	15.1%	4.5%	2.6%	3.79	4.77	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	46	0	55	250	65	34	5	0%	1.2	19.5%	15.1%	4.5%	2.6%	3.79	4.77	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	OAK	12	0	17	67	21	7	1	0%	1.4	31.3%	10.4%	20.9%	1.5%	1.08	2.60	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	OAK	2	0	3	13	6	2	0	0%	1.5	46.2%	15.4%	30.8%	0.0%	0.00	1.15	—
2026	23	AA RAW	OAK	32	0	35	170	38	25	4	0%	1.1	22.4%	14.7%	7.6%	2.4%	5.40	4.37	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	OAK	52	0	55	231	52	25	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	10.8%	11.6%	3.0%	4.65	4.58	-0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	53	0	56	234	54	24	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	10.2%	12.7%	2.9%	4.53	4.46	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	53	0	56	234	54	24	7	0%	1.0	23.1%	10.1%	13.0%	2.9%	4.46	4.43	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	52	0	55	231	53	23	7	0%	1.1	23.1%	10.1%	13.0%	3.0%	4.46	4.46	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	OAK	23	0	24	101	23	11	3	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.8%	11.6%	3.0%	4.65	4.58	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	35	0	37	156	36	16	5	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.2%	12.7%	2.9%	4.53	4.46	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	42	0	44	186	43	19	5	0%	1.0	23.1%	10.1%	13.0%	2.9%	4.46	4.43	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	45	0	47	198	46	20	6	0%	1.0	23.1%	10.1%	13.0%	3.0%	4.46	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		145	0	152	642	147	66	19	0%	1.0	22.9%	10.2%	12.7%	3.0%	4.51	4.09	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	87	25	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.2%	12.7%	3.0%	4.51	4.09	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		52	0	62	283	61	43	6	0%	1.2	21.5%	15.1%	6.4%	2.3%	3.75	4.44	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	0	200	908	195	137	21	0%	1.2	21.5%	15.1%	6.4%	2.3%	3.75	4.44	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jay Dill (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	21.7%	11.9%	3.0%	—	4.49	22.8%	12.4%	166	-0.30	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	92
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	91
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	91
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	91
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	90
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	90
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	90
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	90
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	89
Cre Finfrock R 2019 · 4.63 FIP	23	SU	4.63	23.0%	11.7%	3.6%	.278	6.31	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.68	4.27	103	89
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	89
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	88
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	88
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	88
Vince Arobio R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	23	SU	4.47	20.5%	12.0%	2.9%	.365	3.67	24.1%	16.2%	55	-0.80	3.67	118	88
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	88
Tyler Schoff R 2022 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	19.6%	10.8%	2.6%	.350	3.72	23.8%	15.7%	93	-0.53	3.69	190	88
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	88
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	88
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	88

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	51	22.7%	10.5%	1.15	4.56
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68