Josh Caron — OGILVIE

Josh CaronC Everett AquaSox

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 215 lbs A+ HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION283 act + 188 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .246 / .345

PA188

HR6

SB7

K%36

BB%6

BABIP268

ISO155

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$14M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	20	A	Modesto Nuts	—	54	49	12	1	0	1	3	12	1	2	0	245	302	327	628	82	297	22	6	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Modesto Nuts	—	54	47	13	2	0	1	5	9	1	2	0	277	358	383	741	106	316	17	9	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	331	308	40	6	1	6	16	147	5	11	2	130	185	214	400	84	217	44	5	174	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	331	299	59	9	2	9	25	96	5	11	2	197	271	331	602	134	255	29	8	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	SEA	—	283	256	45	10	1	13	20	123	3	18	2	176	244	375	619	199	258	43	7	264	60	-13	+3	+0	+5	+8	0.3
YTD	22	A+	SEA	—	283	245	64	15	2	18	31	88	3	18	2	261	351	559	910	298	322	31	11	389	156	+18	+3	+0	+5	+8	3.4
ROS	22	A+	SEA	0%	188	173	33	7	1	6	11	68	2	7	1	190	246	345	592	155	258	36	6	257	55	-10	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.0
ROS	22	MLB	SEA	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						256	0	0	246	47	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	A+	SEA	—	284	257	45	10	1	13	20	123	3	18	2	175	243	374	616	198	256	43	7	264	60	-13	+3	+0	+5	+8	0.3
TOT	22	A+	SEA	—	471	429	78	17	2	19	31	191	5	25	3	182	245	363	608	182	263	40	7	261	58	-22	+4	+0	+8	+13	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	SEA	35%	430	395	76	15	2	14	28	148	4	11	2	192	253	347	600	154	262	34	7	267	63	-18	+1	+0	+8	+12	0.3
2028	24	MLB	SEA	46%	475	435	86	17	2	16	32	158	5	11	2	198	261	356	617	159	266	33	7	275	68	-17	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.7
2029	25	MLB	SEA	52%	496	454	91	18	2	17	34	162	5	11	2	200	264	361	625	161	267	33	7	279	72	-16	+1	+0	+9	+14	0.9
2030	26	MLB	SEA	54%	507	462	94	18	2	18	35	164	5	11	2	203	267	368	635	165	268	32	7	281	73	-15	+1	+0	+9	+14	1.0
2031	27	MLB	SEA	54%	508	462	94	18	2	18	36	165	5	10	2	203	268	368	636	165	268	32	7	281	73	-15	+1	+0	+9	+14	1.0
2032	28	MLB	SEA	54%	504	458	92	18	2	17	36	164	5	10	1	201	267	360	627	159	267	33	7	280	73	-16	+2	-1	+9	+14	0.9
2027	23	MLB	SEA	35%	149	137	26	5	1	5	10	51	1	4	1	190	250	350	600	161	260	34	7	257	55	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.0
2028	24	MLB	SEA	46%	220	201	40	8	1	7	15	73	2	5	1	199	261	353	615	154	263	33	7	264	60	-10	+1	+0	+4	+6	0.1
2029	25	MLB	SEA	52%	256	233	47	9	1	9	18	84	3	6	1	202	268	365	633	163	265	33	7	269	64	-10	+1	+0	+5	+7	0.2
2030	26	MLB	SEA	54%	275	251	50	10	1	9	19	89	3	6	1	199	264	355	618	155	265	32	7	271	65	-11	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2031	27	MLB	SEA	54%	276	251	50	10	1	9	20	89	3	6	1	199	266	355	621	155	265	32	7	271	65	-11	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2032	28	MLB	SEA	54%	274	249	50	10	1	9	20	89	3	5	1	201	268	357	626	157	264	32	7	270	65	-11	+1	-0	+5	+8	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1451	1323	263	52	6	48	102	475	15	32	6	199	264	356	620	157	267	33	7	268	63	-61	+4	-0	+26	+41	1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	118	23	3	22	46	213	7	14	3	199	265	359	624	160	266	33	7	268	63	-27	+2	-0	+12	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	3493	3196	618	118	14	113	231	1188	37	84	14	193	256	345	601	152	264	34	7	267	62	-148	+11	-1	+62	+99	2.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	115	22	3	21	43	221	7	16	3	193	256	346	602	153	263	34	7	267	62	-28	+2	-0	+12	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	20	A	Modesto Nuts	—	54	47	13	2	0	1	5	9	1	2	0	277	358	383	741	106	316	17	9	332	112	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2025	21	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	331	299	59	9	2	9	25	96	5	11	2	197	271	331	602	134	255	29	8	272	66	-13	+1	—	—	+9	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,450	49	31	202	262	364	+26	+12	2.5	2.5
	/162	664	23	14	202	262	364	+11.9	+5.5	1.1	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josh Caron (OGILVIE)	22	25	40	50	30	182/245/363	182	263	19	25	40%	7%	58	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	193/232/296	103	263	8	10	30%	4%	40	-2.4	194/233/281	87	280	5	9	31%	5%	36	-2.7	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Sean Coyle 2014 · A	22	35→34	49→50	54→50	36	188/246/332	144	269	17	14	36%	6%	56	-1.3	199/257/342	143	302	18	13	38%	6%	63	-0.8	180/243/309	129	278	16	12	39%	7%	46	-1.1
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	189/255/325	136	272	15	10	35%	6%	59	-1.1	206/270/351	145	304	16	9	36%	6%	72	-0.2	198/264/347	149	294	17	7	37%	6%	65	-0.2
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	40→36	43→45	49→50	41	200/271/316	116	273	11	8	30%	6%	63	-0.9	212/286/347	135	281	14	10	29%	6%	78	+0.2	214/295/369	155	271	17	10	26%	6%	84	+0.2
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2017 · A	22	34	47→50	44→40	39	181/246/309	128	264	15	5	36%	7%	50	-1.7	207/262/323	116	285	12	4	30%	6%	60	-1.0	206/261/314	108	276	12	2	29%	6%	55	-0.6
✕Rodolfo Castro 2021 · A	22	37→40	47→55	46→50	35	194/234/331	137	275	15	6	35%	5%	50	-1.7	211/266/374	163	279	20	8	31%	6%	76	+0.0	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	40→33	46→55	52→50	39	205/249/339	134	269	14	14	29%	5%	59	-1.1	183/230/341	158	264	20	4	38%	5%	52	-1.6	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Marcus Chiu 2019 · A	22	41→26	45	53→45	38	202/283/327	125	286	12	11	32%	5%	72	-0.2	178/269/302	124	310	14	6	44%	8%	59	-1.1	160/249/283	123	273	15	3	44%	7%	43	-1.3
✕Fabian Pertuz 2023 · A	22	37→33	41→40	49→55	33	185/229/278	92	285	8	9	37%	4%	33	-2.9	172/223/263	91	273	9	12	38%	5%	28	-3.2	143/198/223	80	227	9	13	40%	5%	4	-2.5
✕Willie MacIver 2021 · A	24	35→33	41→45	49→55	36	182/228/277	95	252	9	9	31%	4%	33	-2.9	190/258/311	121	280	14	15	35%	7%	56	-1.3	225/305/348	123	321	11	18	31%	8%	83	+0.3
✕Osiris Johnson 2023 · A	22	36	41→45	51→50	39	186/239/277	91	257	10	9	31%	6%	38	-2.6	194/242/295	101	272	11	14	32%	5%	44	-2.1	178/225/278	100	246	13	18	33%	5%	29	-1.2
✕Mariel Bautista 2021 · A	23	40→34	42→45	49→50	38	201/251/299	98	265	10	15	28%	5%	49	-1.8	209/254/332	123	305	13	11	34%	5%	59	-1.1	181/215/331	150	258	17	11	37%	3%	42	-0.5
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Sammy Infante 2023 · A	22	33→25	45	48→55	34	167/234/287	119	291	13	10	45%	7%	40	-2.4	188/252/281	93	310	8	16	39%	6%	45	-2.1	179/245/253	75	293	6	20	38%	6%	32	-1.3
✕Tucker Mitchell 2023 · A	22	38	44→50	51→45	35	182/259/292	110	306	12	11	42%	6%	53	-1.5	199/263/309	110	291	13	7	34%	6%	58	-1.2	187/246/280	93	268	12	5	34%	5%	40	-1.0
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	39	42→45	47→50	39	198/255/299	101	269	10	10	30%	5%	51	-1.7	211/272/334	123	278	13	9	28%	6%	67	-0.5	201/263/321	120	259	14	7	27%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Angel Aguilar 2017 · A	22	36→37	44→45	51→50	34	187/224/299	112	263	12	11	34%	4%	37	-2.6	190/223/291	101	271	9	9	33%	3%	34	-2.8	181/211/277	97	260	8	8	33%	3%	23	-2.3
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	35	-2.8	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Brayan Buelvas 2023 · A	21	35→40	46→50	50→55	39	186/245/315	128	247	14	13	30%	6%	51	-1.7	189/251/309	120	275	12	18	34%	7%	52	-1.6	182/244/294	112	275	11	14	36%	7%	42	-1.3
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	40	44→55	46→45	37	202/247/323	121	282	12	7	32%	5%	53	-1.5	194/256/297	103	298	10	10	36%	7%	50	-1.7	163/228/254	91	247	10	10	36%	8%	25	-0.9