Nathan Church

LF St. Louis Cardinals
Age 27 L/L 5'10" / 180 lbs MLB HR -14%BB -5% Svc 1.250 · Ctrl thru 2031
Overview
MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202424AA/INTL2 orgs599.277/.341/.37892770—.233/.284/.308
202525AAA/AASTL371.335/.394/.5361315130—.315/.361/.484
202525MLBSTL65.179/.258/.25011430.2
202626MLBSTL470.247/.294/.364101085-0.3
2027PROJ27MLBSTL414.241/.297/.3691017880.2
2028PROJ82% MLB28MLBSTL331.239/.295/.36481286-0.0
2029PROJ82% MLB29MLBSTL320.236/.291/.35871084-0.2
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2031Service1.250First FA2032
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$0.2M2030Arb-2$0.4M2031Ext$3M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2025-2026
Speed76
Bat Spd48
Barrel%25
xwOBA25
Avg EV10
Form.246/.292/.355 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .241/.295/.374
CompsRoger Bernadina (age 28) · Conner Capel (age 27) · Darrell Ceciliani (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†88
AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .297 / .369
PA414
HR10
SB17
K%18
BB%6
BABIP272
ISO129
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +2.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+3RUNFLD: +1.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: -4.4 runs (Positional adjustment)-4POSREP: +9.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+9REPTotal WAR: +0.50+0.5WAR
0.00.51.00.50.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2025-2026
CONTACT
xAVG
310.236
POWER
Barrel%
254.9
Avg EV
1086.0
Bat Spd
4871.1
SPEED
Sprint
7628.5
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%15%▲▲13% over 95 PA (60d) · proj 18%
BB%5%▼4% over 95 PA (60d) · proj 6%
ISO.109▼.067 over 90 AB (60d) · proj .133
HR/BB2.0%▼0.0% over 78 BBE (60d) · proj 3.5%
BABIP.274·.308 over 78 BIP (60d) · proj .270
SLASH.246/.292/.355▼proj .241/.295/.374
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2025
Service   1.250 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.5$2M+$1M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Arb-1$0.2M———
2030Arb-2$0.4M———
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.8M $0.0M +$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202222 APalm Beach Cardinals — 11195 18110 9145 31 189294221515 32220 138 246 22 — — — — — —
202323 A+Peoria Chiefs — 518455 1272423 466015 2112 279364360725 81316 129 332 66 — — — — — —
202424 AASpringfield Cardinals — 541482 1292219 43606 244 268335373708 106286 118 316 63 — — — — — —
202424 INTLGlendale Desert Dogs — 5855 20110 350 32 364397418815 55400 95 367 134 — — — — — —
202525 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 6556 10101 3183 10 179258250508 71237 285 229 43 -4 +0 +3 +2 +1 0.2
202525 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 242215 721147 24250 94 335400521921 186353 1010 401 136 — — — — — —
202525 AASpringfield Cardinals — 129119 40716 8101 60 336383563946 227327 86 410 119 — — — — — —
202626 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 470434 10717210 25814 105 247294364658 118278 175 291 85 -9 +0 +0 -5 +10 -0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 535490 11718211 28997 115 239290351641 112274 195 284 78 -14 +0 +3 -3 +12 -0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202222 A MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 11198 16110 6205 31 163248194442 31194 185 200 22 — — — — — —
202323 A+ MLEPeoria Chiefs — 518473 1112022 287915 2112 235298298597 63273 155 266 66 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 541497 1162015 29786 244 233284308592 74257 145 262 63 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 6556 10101 3183 10 179258250508 71237 285 232 43 -4 +0 +3 +2 +1 0.2
202525 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 242222 731056 18310 94 329379500879 171351 137 369 136 — — — — — —
202525 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 129121 35614 6121 60 289328455783 165295 95 344 119 — — — — — —
202626 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 470434 10716211 25814 105 247294369662 122278 175 293 85 -9 +0 +0 -5 +10 -0.3
202222 A MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 11198 16110 6205 31 163248194442 31203 185 200 22 — — — — — —
202222 A RAWPalm Beach Cardinals — 11195 18110 9145 31 189294221515 32220 138 246 22 — — — — — —
202323 A+ MLEPeoria Chiefs — 518473 1112022 287915 2112 235298298597 63277 155 266 66 — — — — — —
202323 A+ RAWPeoria Chiefs — 518455 1272423 466015 2112 279364360725 81316 129 332 66 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLE2 teams — 599552 1292216 32866 276 234283310593 76264 145 262 63 — — — — — —
202424 AA RAW2 teams — 599537 1492329 46656 276 277341378719 101299 118 321 63 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLE3 teams — 436399 11817611 27624 164 296347451798 155325 146 341 117 — — — — — —
202525 AAA RAW3 teams — 436390 12219514 35534 164 313374495869 182331 128 378 117 — — — — — —
202626 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 470434 10716211 25814 105 247294369662 122276 175 293 85 -9 +0 +0 -5 +10 -0.3
202626 MLB RAWSt. Louis Cardinals — 470434 10717210 25814 105 247294364658 118278 175 291 85 -9 +0 +0 -5 +10 -0.3
202222 A MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 11199 16110 6205 31 162248192440 30194 185 200 22 — — — — — —
202323 A+ MLEPeoria Chiefs — 518470 1112022 287915 2112 236298300598 64273 155 266 66 — — — — — —
202424 AA MLE2 teams — 599556 1292216 32866 276 232283308591 76257 145 262 63 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLE3 teams — 436402 11817611 27624 164 294347448794 154317 146 341 117 — — — — — —
202626 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 470438 10716211 25814 105 244294365659 121278 175 293 85 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202424 AA MLE2 teams — 599556 1292216 32866 276 232283308591 76257 145 262 63 — — — — — —
202525 AAA MLE3 teams — 436402 11817611 27624 164 294347448794 154317 146 341 117 — — — — — —
202626 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 470438 10716211 25814 105 244294365659 121278 175 293 85 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLESTL 100% 495456 11017313 31885 204 241297374671 133270 186 299 88 -7 +2 +1 -5 +11 0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXSTL 100% 414381 9215210 26744 174 241297369666 129272 186 297 88 -6 +2 +1 -4 +9 0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLESTL 82% 404372 8914210 25734 153 239295369664 130269 186 296 86 -7 +2 +0 -4 +9 0.0
202929 MLB MLESTL 82% 390359 8613210 24714 123 236292362654 126267 186 292 84 -8 +1 -0 -4 +8 -0.2
203030 MLB MLESTL 82% 375345 811229 23704 92 233287353640 120265 196 286 80 -9 +1 -1 -4 +8 -0.5
202828 MLB CTXSTL 82% 331304 741228 21603 123 239295364659 126270 186 294 86 -5 +1 +0 -4 +7 -0.0
202929 MLB CTXSTL 82% 320294 691117 20583 102 236291358649 122269 186 290 84 -6 +1 -0 -3 +7 -0.2
203030 MLB CTXSTL 82% 308283 661017 19573 82 232287349636 117266 196 285 80 -7 +1 -1 -3 +7 -0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 14941371 32651633 8827416 4112 238292356647 118272 186 288 81 -33 +3 +2 -14 +32 -0.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650596 14222314 381197 185 238292356647 117273 186 288 81 -14 +1 +1 -6 +14 -0.4
Career— MLE — 37173413 8291292070 21661650 13040 243298354652 111276 176 287 81 -43 +6 +3 -20 +46 -0.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650597 14523312 381089 237 243298352650 109277 176 287 81 -13 +2 +1 -6 +14 -0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 242 PAwOBA .392 → .369 (−23)K% 10.3% → 13.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.33%÷0.953×1.200——13.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.92%÷0.954×0.690—×1.0337.41%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0330.00%
Singles /BIP26.32%÷0.982×0.930×1.039×1.03326.76%
Doubles /BIP5.79%÷1.033×0.830×1.039×1.0335.00%
Triples /BIP2.11%÷0.900×0.970×1.039×1.0332.44%
Home runs /BIP3.68%÷0.869×0.700—×1.0333.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 91, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .392 → .369; ISO .186 → .171; BABIP .353 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 129 PAwOBA .402 → .344 (−57)K% 7.8% → 9.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA7.75%÷0.992×1.220——9.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.20%÷0.987×0.700—×0.9984.39%
HBP% /PA0.78%—×0.870—×0.9980.67%
Singles /BIP23.85%÷0.966×0.920×0.970×0.99822.01%
Doubles /BIP6.42%÷0.916×0.840×0.970×0.9985.70%
Triples /BIP0.92%÷0.900×0.940×0.970×0.9980.93%
Home runs /BIP5.50%÷1.105×0.800—×0.9983.98%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 93, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .402 → .344; ISO .227 → .180; BABIP .327 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASpringfield Cardinals · 541 PAwOBA .310 → .262 (−47)K% 11.1% → 14.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.09%÷0.943×1.220——14.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.58%÷0.992×0.700—×1.0125.41%
HBP% /PA1.11%—×0.870—×1.0120.98%
Singles /BIP22.99%÷0.998×0.920×0.978×1.01220.98%
Doubles /BIP5.21%÷0.940×0.840×0.978×1.0124.61%
Triples /BIP0.24%÷1.150×0.940×0.978×1.0120.19%
Home runs /BIP2.13%÷1.386×0.800—×1.0121.25%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 89, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .310 → .262; ISO .106 → .078; BABIP .286 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Peoria Chiefs · 518 PAwOBA .323 → .266 (−57)K% 11.6% → 15.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.58%÷0.961×1.270——15.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.30%÷1.065×0.710—×0.9985.52%
HBP% /PA2.90%—×0.790—×0.9982.28%
Singles /BIP24.81%÷1.030×0.920×0.989×0.99821.88%
Doubles /BIP6.08%÷0.992×0.810×0.989×0.9984.90%
Triples /BIP0.51%÷0.900×0.850×0.989×0.9980.47%
Home runs /BIP0.76%÷1.093×0.800—×0.9980.55%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 106, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 92, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .323 → .266; ISO .081 → .066; BABIP .316 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 APalm Beach Cardinals · 111 PAwOBA .243 → .200 (−43)K% 12.6% → 17.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.61%÷0.966×1.360——17.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.11%÷1.029×0.690——5.44%
HBP% /PA4.50%—×0.780——3.51%
Singles /BIP19.75%÷0.985×0.920×0.950—17.53%
Doubles /BIP1.23%÷1.076×0.830×0.950—0.90%
Triples /BIP1.23%÷0.900×0.910×0.950—1.19%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.880×0.800——0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 97, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .243 → .200; ISO .032 → .028; BABIP .220 → .194. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .