Nathan ChurchLF
St. Louis Cardinals
Age 26
L/L
5'10" / 180 lbs
MLB
HR -7%K -4%
Svc 0.250 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.9 · 2027
wRC+†94
AVG/OBP/SLG.253 / .308 / .395
PA250
HR7
SB9
K%15
BB%6
MLB%100%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
53↘52
PWR
38↗40
SPD
56↗57
FLD
47↗53
EYE
42↗50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.250 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.9 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.8 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $4M | +1.6 | $14M | +$10M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $6M | +1.5 | $14M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $7M | +1.2 | $11M | +$4M |
| Totals | $19M | $73M | +$54M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 111 | 98 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | .163 | .248 | .194 | .442 | .031 | .205 | 19 | 5 | .205 | 15 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 518 | 473 | 111 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 80 | 15 | 21 | 12 | .235 | .298 | .298 | .597 | .063 | .278 | 15 | 5 | .267 | 63 | -22 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +15 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | 2 teams | 599 | 552 | 126 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 92 | 6 | 27 | 6 | .228 | .278 | .308 | .586 | .080 | .259 | 15 | 5 | .259 | 56 | -30 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +17 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | 3 teams | 436 | 400 | 118 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 63 | 4 | 16 | 4 | .295 | .344 | .465 | .809 | .170 | .321 | 14 | 6 | .346 | 123 | +11 | +2 | +3 | +2 | +12 | 3.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 61 | 55 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 0 | .236 | .300 | .364 | .664 | .127 | .297 | 28 | 7 | .292 | 82 | -1 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 189 | 173 | 43 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 2 | 6 | 1 | .249 | .305 | .382 | .686 | .133 | .281 | 17 | 6 | .313 | 97 | -1 | +1 | +2 | +1 | +5 | 0.8 |
| TOT | 26 | MLB | STL | 250 | 228 | 56 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 49 | 3 | 9 | 1 | .246 | .304 | .377 | .681 | .132 | .282 | 20 | 6 | .308 | 94 | -2 | +1 | +2 | +0 | +7 | 0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 395 | 360 | 91 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 57 | 5 | 13 | 2 | .253 | .314 | .397 | .711 | .144 | .269 | 14 | 7 | .314 | 98 | -1 | +2 | +3 | +1 | +11 | 1.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 403 | 367 | 92 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 61 | 5 | 13 | 2 | .251 | .312 | .392 | .705 | .142 | .271 | 15 | 7 | .314 | 98 | -1 | +2 | +3 | +1 | +11 | 1.7 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | STL | 398 | 363 | 90 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 63 | 4 | 12 | 2 | .248 | .309 | .391 | .700 | .143 | .271 | 16 | 7 | .312 | 97 | -1 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +11 | 1.5 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | STL | 394 | 359 | 89 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 65 | 4 | 11 | 1 | .248 | .309 | .393 | .702 | .145 | .270 | 16 | 7 | .309 | 95 | -2 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +11 | 1.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | STL | 379 | 345 | 83 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 64 | 4 | 9 | 1 | .241 | .303 | .374 | .677 | .133 | .269 | 17 | 7 | .306 | 92 | -3 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +11 | 1.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | STL | 360 | 328 | 78 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 62 | 4 | 7 | 0 | .238 | .300 | .366 | .666 | .128 | .268 | 17 | 7 | .301 | 88 | -5 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +10 | 0.8 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | STL | 330 | 301 | 71 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 60 | 3 | 5 | 0 | .236 | .297 | .362 | .659 | .126 | .267 | 18 | 7 | .295 | 84 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +9 | 0.4 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | STL | 286 | 261 | 60 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 54 | 3 | 4 | 0 | .230 | .292 | .345 | .637 | .115 | .265 | 19 | 7 | .289 | 79 | -7 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +8 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4798 | 4380 | 1068 | 158 | 31 | 104 | 310 | 774 | 64 | 147 | 32 | .244 | .303 | .365 | .669 | .121 | .273 | 16 | 6 | .297 | 86 | -77 | +17 | +11 | +17 | +136 | 10.5 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 593 | 144 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 42 | 105 | 9 | 20 | 4 | .243 | .303 | .363 | .665 | .120 | .272 | 16 | 6 | .297 | 86 | -10 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +18 | 1.4 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 111 | 95 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 1 | .189 | .294 | .221 | .515 | .032 | .220 | 13 | 8 | .246 | 47 | -7 | +0 | — | — | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 518 | 455 | 127 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 46 | 60 | 15 | 21 | 12 | .279 | .364 | .360 | .725 | .081 | .316 | 12 | 9 | .332 | 112 | +7 | -1 | — | — | +15 | 2.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 541 | 482 | 129 | 22 | 1 | 9 | 43 | 60 | 6 | 24 | 4 | .268 | .335 | .373 | .708 | .106 | .286 | 11 | 8 | .316 | 100 | -0 | +3 | — | — | +15 | 1.9 |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | 58 | 55 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | .364 | .397 | .418 | .815 | .055 | .400 | 9 | 5 | .367 | 139 | +3 | -0 | — | — | +2 | 0.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 65 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .179 | .258 | .250 | .508 | .071 | .237 | 28 | 5 | .229 | 34 | -5 | +0 | +3 | +2 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 242 | 215 | 72 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 4 | .335 | .400 | .521 | .921 | .186 | .353 | 10 | 10 | .401 | 165 | +18 | +0 | — | — | +7 | 2.5 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 129 | 119 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 0 | .336 | .383 | .563 | .946 | .227 | .327 | 8 | 6 | .410 | 172 | +11 | +1 | — | — | +4 | 1.6 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | 65 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .179 | .258 | .250 | .508 | .071 | .237 | 28 | 5 | .229 | 34 | -5 | +0 | +3 | +2 | +2 | 0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Nathan Church (OGILVIE) | 26 | 53→52 | 38→40 | 56→57 | 50 | .250/.307/.391 | .141 | .267 | 7 | 9 | 13% | 6% | 97 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
●TJ Friedl 2023 · MLB |
27 | 47→53 | 48→50 | 55 | 48 | .234/.303/.384 | .149 | .269 | 15 | 16 | 19% | 7% | 93 | +1.3 | .244/.323/.394 | .150 | .276 | 16 | 19 | 17% | 8% | 105 | +2.1 | .246/.337/.381 | .136 | .276 | 15 | 18 | 16% | 10% | 103 | +1.8 |
|
●Andy Dirks 2012 · MLB |
26 | 51→53 | 46→50 | 52→55 | 45 | .254/.299/.385 | .131 | .288 | 14 | 19 | 18% | 5% | 91 | +1.1 | .266/.319/.402 | .136 | .306 | 14 | 11 | 17% | 7% | 104 | +2.0 | .273/.333/.402 | .129 | .314 | 13 | 7 | 17% | 8% | 103 | +1.4 |
|
✕Richie Palacios 2023 · MLB |
26 | 51→53 | 44→50 | 58→55 | 50 | .246/.318/.376 | .130 | .305 | 9 | 20 | 21% | 8% | 97 | +1.5 | .232/.317/.355 | .123 | .273 | 12 | 18 | 19% | 10% | 92 | +1.2 | .220/.315/.334 | .114 | .255 | 12 | 20 | 18% | 11% | 84 | +0.3 |
|
✕Manuel Margot 2021 · MLB |
26 | 51→53 | 46→50 | 54→60 | 50 | .249/.308/.386 | .137 | .288 | 12 | 23 | 18% | 8% | 95 | +1.4 | .257/.315/.377 | .120 | .299 | 11 | 18 | 17% | 8% | 95 | +1.4 | .260/.315/.371 | .111 | .303 | 9 | 15 | 17% | 7% | 89 | +0.7 |
|
✕Josh Rojas 2020 · MLB |
26 | 46→55 | 48→50 | 55 | 49 | .231/.297/.380 | .149 | .276 | 14 | 24 | 22% | 8% | 89 | +1.0 | .245/.318/.381 | .136 | .306 | 13 | 20 | 22% | 9% | 98 | +1.6 | .254/.328/.372 | .118 | .320 | 10 | 18 | 22% | 10% | 95 | +1.1 |
|
✕Leonys Martin 2013 · MLB |
25 | 52→55 | 48→50 | 51→60 | 46 | .260/.309/.411 | .151 | .297 | 14 | 21 | 18% | 6% | 102 | +1.9 | .254/.304/.377 | .123 | .307 | 11 | 30 | 20% | 6% | 91 | +1.1 | .241/.297/.381 | .140 | .306 | 16 | 24 | 26% | 7% | 85 | +0.6 |
|
✕Will Brennan 2023 · MLB |
25 | 55→60 | 44→45 | 52→50 | 48 | .267/.319/.393 | .126 | .308 | 10 | 15 | 17% | 6% | 102 | +1.8 | .267/.308/.380 | .113 | .303 | 10 | 14 | 15% | 5% | 93 | +1.3 | .267/.304/.369 | .102 | .300 | 9 | 13 | 14% | 4% | 84 | +0.3 |
|
✕Tim Smith 2012 · AA |
26 | 51→52 | 47→50 | 51→55 | 44 | .257/.299/.391 | .134 | .292 | 16 | 16 | 18% | 5% | 93 | +1.3 | .245/.296/.364 | .119 | .288 | 12 | 10 | 19% | 5% | 85 | +0.7 | .255/.312/.345 | .090 | .302 | 8 | 5 | 17% | 5% | 85 | +0.3 |
|
✕Shane Costa 2008 · MLB |
26 | 53→57 | 45→50 | 51→50 | 47 | .258/.305/.395 | .137 | .279 | 11 | 9 | 13% | 5% | 97 | +1.5 | .249/.297/.383 | .134 | .279 | 13 | 13 | 16% | 6% | 90 | +1.0 | .249/.294/.384 | .135 | .276 | 15 | 17 | 15% | 6% | 88 | +0.5 |
|
✕Matt Long 2013 · AAA |
26 | 47→54 | 45→50 | 54→55 | 47 | .233/.292/.366 | .133 | .278 | 12 | 19 | 20% | 7% | 83 | +0.6 | .217/.273/.337 | .120 | .284 | 11 | 19 | 26% | 7% | 68 | -0.5 | .203/.260/.310 | .107 | .270 | 10 | 18 | 27% | 7% | 53 | -1.3 |
|
●Felix Pie 2011 · MLB |
26 | 52→55 | 47→50 | 50→60 | 46 | .255/.302/.397 | .142 | .300 | 13 | 10 | 20% | 6% | 95 | +1.4 | .242/.288/.371 | .129 | .292 | 9 | 19 | 20% | 6% | 82 | +0.5 | .256/.309/.411 | .155 | .305 | 15 | 25 | 21% | 6% | 99 | +1.1 |
|
✕Matt Vierling 2023 · MLB |
26 | 49→55 | 45→50 | 52→50 | 46 | .242/.298/.366 | .124 | .292 | 13 | 16 | 22% | 7% | 86 | +0.8 | .252/.312/.387 | .135 | .309 | 14 | 10 | 22% | 8% | 98 | +1.6 | .252/.317/.390 | .138 | .311 | 14 | 7 | 22% | 8% | 97 | +1.1 |
|
✕Don Kelly 2006 · AAA |
26 | 55→59 | 44→45 | 52→55 | 48 | .267/.309/.385 | .117 | .297 | 10 | 15 | 14% | 6% | 95 | +1.4 | .235/.286/.321 | .086 | .268 | 5 | 16 | 13% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .255/.302/.373 | .118 | .282 | 13 | 17 | 14% | 5% | 87 | +0.5 |
|
✕Óscar Mercado 2021 · MLB |
26 | 49→53 | 46→55 | 55→60 | 46 | .241/.295/.372 | .132 | .285 | 13 | 25 | 21% | 6% | 86 | +0.8 | .224/.288/.371 | .147 | .263 | 15 | 21 | 21% | 7% | 84 | +0.6 | .223/.288/.374 | .151 | .263 | 15 | 26 | 21% | 7% | 81 | +0.3 |
|
●Leo Heras 2015 · AAA |
25 | 47→57 | 46→50 | 54→55 | 49 | .235/.303/.370 | .135 | .284 | 13 | 18 | 22% | 8% | 89 | +1.0 | .222/.289/.332 | .110 | .294 | 8 | 18 | 25% | 8% | 73 | -0.1 | .244/.318/.385 | .141 | .314 | 13 | 18 | 25% | 9% | 97 | +0.9 |
|
●Tony Kemp 2019 · MLB |
27 | 56→60 | 41→45 | 54→55 | 52 | .270/.326/.372 | .102 | .302 | 8 | 20 | 13% | 7% | 98 | +1.6 | .248/.326/.373 | .125 | .277 | 12 | 15 | 14% | 9% | 100 | +1.7 | .250/.341/.359 | .109 | .277 | 9 | 12 | 13% | 10% | 101 | +1.1 |
|
✕Chris Getz 2010 · MLB |
26 | 54→56 | 41→40 | 56→60 | 51 | .259/.315/.358 | .100 | .289 | 8 | 22 | 14% | 7% | 91 | +1.1 | .243/.301/.312 | .069 | .274 | 3 | 27 | 12% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .241/.288/.304 | .063 | .269 | 2 | 31 | 10% | 6% | 60 | -0.4 |
|
✕Jordany Valdespin 2015 · MLB |
27 | 48→54 | 49→50 | 49→55 | 49 | .241/.299/.383 | .142 | .265 | 17 | 21 | 17% | 7% | 92 | +1.2 | .244/.296/.345 | .101 | .283 | 9 | 16 | 17% | 6% | 79 | +0.3 | .260/.308/.341 | .081 | .308 | 5 | 18 | 16% | 5% | 80 | +0.2 |
|
✕David Lough 2012 · AAA |
26 | 54→61 | 44→50 | 52→50 | 44 | .264/.303/.388 | .124 | .300 | 10 | 14 | 16% | 4% | 93 | +1.3 | .255/.291/.372 | .117 | .292 | 9 | 17 | 15% | 4% | 84 | +0.6 | .255/.292/.372 | .117 | .291 | 9 | 18 | 15% | 4% | 83 | +0.4 |
|
✕Alex Sanchez 2002 · MLB |
25 | 47→57 | 44→40 | 55→65 | 50 | .229/.292/.356 | .128 | .270 | 11 | 22 | 20% | 8% | 81 | +0.4 | .274/.318/.355 | .081 | .319 | 3 | 42 | 14% | 6% | 90 | +1.0 | .289/.324/.358 | .068 | .334 | 2 | 47 | 13% | 5% | 91 | +0.8 |