Nathan Church — OGILVIE

Nathan ChurchLF St. Louis Cardinals

Age 26 L/L 5'10" / 180 lbs MLB HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.250 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION426 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†100

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .333 / .250

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP295

ISO144

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 51 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT51

Whiff%

901.9%

xAVG

350.239

POWER40

Barrel%

295.4

Avg EV

1286.2

Bat Spd

4871.1

EYE50

Chase%

905.1%

SPEED58

Sprint

7628.5

DEFENSE54

scouting grade only

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%12%▲▲9% over 89 PA (30d) · proj 17%

BB%7%·7% over 137 PA (45d) · proj 6%

ISO.111▼▼.078 over 154 AB (60d) · proj .144

HR/BB2.4%▼1.4% over 138 BBE (60d) · proj 3.5%

BABIP.309·.294 over 136 BIP (60d) · proj .311

SLASH.284/.339/.395·proj .275/.327/.419

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.250 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$14M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	111	95	18	1	1	0	9	14	5	3	1	189	294	221	515	32	220	13	8	246	53	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2023	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	518	455	127	24	2	3	46	60	15	21	12	279	364	360	725	81	316	12	9	332	111	+7	-1	—	—	+11	1.8
2024	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	541	482	129	22	1	9	43	60	6	24	4	268	335	373	708	106	286	11	8	316	100	-0	+3	—	—	+12	1.5
2024	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	58	55	20	1	1	0	3	5	0	3	2	364	397	418	815	55	400	9	5	367	134	+2	-0	—	—	+1	0.4
2025	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	65	56	10	1	0	1	3	18	3	1	0	179	258	250	508	71	237	28	5	229	41	-5	+0	+3	+2	+1	0.2
2025	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	242	215	72	11	4	7	24	25	0	9	4	335	400	521	921	186	353	10	10	401	158	+17	+0	—	—	+5	2.3
2025	25	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	129	119	40	7	1	6	8	10	1	6	0	336	383	563	946	227	327	8	6	410	164	+10	+1	—	—	+3	1.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	65	56	10	1	0	1	3	18	3	1	0	179	258	250	508	71	237	28	5	229	41	-5	+0	+3	+2	+1	0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	111	97	16	1	1	0	7	21	5	3	1	165	257	196	453	31	194	19	6	204	24	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	518	473	109	20	2	2	28	84	15	21	12	230	295	294	588	63	273	16	5	264	65	-22	-1	—	—	+11	-1.1
2024	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	541	497	117	20	1	5	29	78	6	24	4	235	286	310	596	74	260	14	5	263	64	-23	+3	—	—	+12	-0.8
2025	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	65	56	10	1	0	1	3	18	3	1	0	179	258	250	508	71	237	28	5	230	42	-5	+0	+3	+2	+1	0.2
2025	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	242	223	69	9	4	6	17	31	0	9	4	309	358	466	825	157	338	13	7	356	127	+8	+0	—	—	+5	1.4
2025	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	129	121	37	7	1	4	6	12	1	6	0	306	344	479	823	174	303	9	5	349	122	+3	+1	—	—	+3	0.8
2022	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	111	97	16	1	1	0	7	21	5	3	1	165	257	196	453	31	208	19	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	111	95	18	1	1	0	9	14	5	3	1	189	294	221	515	32	220	13	8	246	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	518	473	109	20	2	2	28	84	15	21	12	230	295	294	588	63	276	16	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	—	518	455	127	24	2	3	46	60	15	21	12	279	364	360	725	81	316	12	9	332	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	599	552	130	22	1	6	32	86	6	27	6	236	285	312	596	76	266	14	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	599	537	149	23	2	9	46	65	6	27	6	277	341	378	719	101	299	11	8	321	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	436	400	116	17	5	11	26	62	4	16	4	290	340	440	780	150	318	14	6	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	436	390	122	19	5	14	35	53	4	16	4	313	374	495	869	182	331	12	8	378	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	111	98	16	1	1	0	7	21	5	3	1	163	257	194	451	31	194	19	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	518	470	109	20	2	2	28	84	15	21	12	232	295	296	590	64	273	16	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	599	556	130	22	1	6	32	86	6	27	6	234	285	309	594	76	260	14	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	436	403	116	17	5	11	26	62	4	16	4	288	340	437	776	149	313	14	6	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	518	470	109	20	2	2	28	84	15	21	12	232	295	296	590	64	273	16	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	599	556	130	22	1	6	32	86	6	27	6	234	285	309	594	76	260	14	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	436	403	116	17	5	11	26	62	4	16	4	288	340	437	776	149	313	14	6	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	STL	—	426	391	99	13	2	11	24	74	4	10	5	253	303	381	684	128	282	17	6	298	88	-6	+0	+0	-5	+9	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	STL	—	426	391	98	13	2	10	24	74	4	10	5	251	301	371	672	120	281	17	6	297	88	-6	+0	+0	-5	+9	-0.1
YTD	26	MLB RAW	STL	—	426	391	98	13	2	10	24	74	4	10	5	251	301	371	672	120	281	17	6	297	87	-7	+0	+0	-5	+9	-0.2
ROS	26	MLB MLE	STL	100%	9	8	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	250	333	250	583		296	22	11	316	100	+0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	STL	100%	9	8	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	250	333	250	583		295	22	11	305	100	+0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	26	MLB A+C	STL	—	435	399	100	13	2	10	25	76	4	10	5	251	301	368	670	118	282	17	6	297	88	-6	+0	+0	-5	+9	-0.1
TOT	26	MLB MLE	STL	—	435	399	101	13	2	11	25	76	4	10	5	253	304	378	682	125	283	17	6	299	88	-6	+0	+0	-5	+9	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	STL	92%	584	537	142	20	4	15	36	101	6	19	6	264	318	400	718	136	296	17	6	317	100	+0	+1	+2	-6	+13	1.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	92%	603	554	145	20	4	15	38	105	6	18	6	262	316	394	710	132	295	17	6	315	100	-0	+1	+1	-6	+13	0.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	92%	591	543	141	20	3	15	37	104	6	17	5	260	314	390	704	131	294	18	6	313	98	-1	+1	+1	-6	+13	0.7
2030	30	MLB MLE	STL	92%	579	533	137	19	3	14	36	103	5	15	5	257	310	383	693	126	293	18	6	310	96	-3	+1	-0	-6	+13	0.5
2031	31	MLB MLE	STL	92%	567	521	132	18	3	13	36	103	5	12	4	253	308	374	682	121	290	18	6	306	93	-5	+1	-1	-6	+12	0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	STL	92%	537	494	128	18	3	13	33	93	5	17	5	259	312	387	699	128	295	17	6	306	100	+0	+1	+2	-6	+12	1.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	92%	555	510	132	19	3	13	35	97	5	17	5	259	313	384	697	125	294	17	6	305	100	-0	+1	+1	-6	+12	0.9
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	92%	544	500	129	18	3	13	34	96	5	15	5	258	312	384	696	126	294	18	6	302	98	-1	+1	+1	-6	+12	0.6
2030	30	MLB CTX	STL	92%	533	489	125	17	3	12	34	95	5	13	4	256	311	376	687	121	292	18	6	299	96	-3	+1	-0	-6	+12	0.4
2031	31	MLB CTX	STL	92%	522	479	121	16	3	12	33	95	5	11	4	253	308	374	681	121	290	18	6	295	93	-4	+1	-1	-6	+11	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2765	2536	647	89	15	64	173	496	28	74	23	255	310	378	688	123	293	18	6	300	89	-13	+6	+6	-27	+60	3.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	153	21	4	15	41	117	7	17	5	257	313	381	693	124	295	18	6	300	89	-3	+1	+1	-6	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	4597	4218	1070	157	26	91	277	771	58	148	49	254	309	368	677	114	289	17	6	300	89	-13	+6	+6	-30	+65	3.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	596	152	22	4	13	39	109	8	21	7	255	309	371	680	116	291	17	6	300	89	-3	+1	+1	-6	+14	0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gerardo Parralast yr '21 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,290 PA	8.0	5,290	90	97	275	322	403	-51	+11	12.3	12.3
/162	664	11	12	-6.3	+1.4	1.5	pk7: 12
#2Jeff Francoeurlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,633 PA	8.5	5,633	160	54	262	304	417	-60	-26	6.8	9.0
/162	664	19	6	-7.1	-3.1	0.8	pk7: 11
#3Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	4.8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
/162	664	12	20	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#4Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.3	3,531	87	99	259	309	388	-38	+14	5.0	5.1
/162	664	16	19	-7.1	+2.7	0.9	pk7: 5
#5Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Raimel Tapialast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,959 PA	3.0	1,959	28	60	275	319	389	-21	-13	2.1	2.1
/162	664	9	20	-7.1	-4.4	0.7	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nathan Church (OGILVIE)	26	55→51	40	55→58	50	261/312/395	134	296	9	11	17%	6%	100	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kevin Kiermaier 2016 · MLB	26	53→57	47→55	58→55	45	258/301/407	149	301	12	18	18%	5%	98	+1.2	248/311/410	162	295	16	21	21%	7%	103	+1.5	240/311/403	163	288	17	23	22%	8%	98	+0.8
✕Collin Cowgill 2012 · MLB	26	54→59	45→50	57→55	48	264/321/396	132	314	12	24	20%	7%	103	+1.5	244/301/361	117	306	11	16	23%	7%	87	+0.4	235/297/355	120	296	13	9	24%	7%	82	+0.0
●Andy Dirks 2012 · MLB	26	51→54	47→50	53→55	45	253/297/386	133	285	14	19	17%	5%	92	+0.7	269/323/407	138	311	14	11	17%	7%	106	+1.8	280/340/415	135	323	13	7	17%	8%	110	+1.5
✕Peter Bourjos 2013 · MLB	26	50→55	46→50	57→60	44	244/299/387	143	299	12	20	22%	6%	93	+0.8	232/298/357	125	303	11	15	26%	7%	86	+0.3	237/279/373	137	305	9	8	25%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Gerardo Parra 2013 · MLB	26	56→62	43→50	52→55	51	268/329/388	120	315	10	16	18%	8%	103	+1.6	263/315/389	126	304	10	12	16%	7%	99	+1.2	265/313/391	127	304	10	11	16%	6%	94	+0.9
●Nico Hoerner 2023 · MLB	26	56→62	43→45	55→60	50	271/327/387	116	298	10	19	13%	6%	103	+1.5	278/337/385	107	304	9	28	11%	7%	106	+1.8	281/341/379	98	305	7	31	10%	7%	104	+1.8
✕Ke'Bryan Hayes 2023 · MLB	26	52→55	44→50	53→50	50	253/318/376	123	313	11	17	22%	8%	97	+1.1	251/302/373	122	303	12	14	20%	7%	91	+0.6	247/295/355	108	296	10	13	19%	6%	81	-0.1
✕Tommy Edman 2022 · MLB	27	53→57	46→50	56→55	47	263/312/403	140	294	13	21	16%	6%	101	+1.4	256/314/401	145	291	14	26	17%	7%	101	+1.4	253/314/400	147	288	15	29	17%	7%	100	+1.0
✕Ben Francisco 2008 · MLB	26	52→56	46→55	53→55	45	255/301/392	137	294	13	21	18%	5%	95	+0.9	254/316/413	159	294	16	15	19%	7%	105	+1.7	252/322/418	166	289	17	14	19%	8%	107	+1.3
✕Josh Rojas 2020 · MLB	26	47→54	48→50	55	50	235/301/382	148	279	14	25	21%	8%	93	+0.8	245/319/380	135	305	13	19	22%	10%	99	+1.2	251/326/371	120	316	11	18	22%	10%	96	+0.9
✕Leonys Martin 2014 · MLB	26	52→56	46→50	58→60	45	255/307/393	137	302	12	31	20%	6%	97	+1.1	249/301/360	111	306	11	28	21%	7%	87	+0.4	242/298/385	142	308	16	24	25%	7%	90	+0.5
✕Corey Patterson 2006 · MLB	26	48→55	51→55	55→60	43	245/290/407	163	294	19	23	24%	6%	95	+0.9	249/288/392	143	284	16	35	18%	5%	90	+0.6	248/285/385	136	275	14	41	16%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Roger Bernadina 2011 · MLB	27	53→63	45	58→60	48	260/318/390	130	311	12	25	20%	7%	100	+1.3	241/306/366	125	296	13	25	22%	8%	91	+0.6	229/297/347	119	324	11	20	31%	8%	81	-0.0
●Kolten Wong 2017 · MLB	26	52→61	47→50	55	50	255/323/393	138	284	14	15	16%	7%	103	+1.6	265/347/405	140	300	12	14	15%	9%	115	+2.4	271/355/410	138	308	11	16	15%	9%	112	+1.7
✕Matt Watson 2006 · MLB	27	51→53	48→50	53→50	54	254/321/399	145	278	15	11	15%	9%	104	+1.6	253/321/389	136	287	14	8	16%	9%	101	+1.4	249/315/392	143	283	15	1	17%	8%	98	+0.4
✕Nate Schierholtz 2010 · MLB	26	53→58	48→55	51→50	43	264/300/422	158	299	14	10	17%	4%	101	+1.4	257/311/401	144	296	13	10	17%	7%	101	+1.4	257/311/436	179	287	19	8	18%	6%	104	+1.0
✕Chris Duffy 2006 · MLB	26	58→63	43→45	53→60	42	278/322/395	116	335	9	19	19%	4%	103	+1.5	259/316/366	107	313	7	30	18%	6%	94	+0.9	255/316/355	100	308	5	38	18%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Brandon Guyer 2012 · MLB	26	53→57	47→50	56→55	44	262/311/411	150	305	13	21	19%	5%	103	+1.5	254/311/383	129	304	10	19	19%	5%	97	+1.1	263/354/403	140	305	12	11	16%	6%	116	+1.5
●Alejandro De Aza 2010 · MLB	26	49→59	46→50	52→55	46	240/299/379	139	296	11	15	22%	7%	91	+0.7	267/322/394	127	326	9	23	20%	7%	103	+1.5	273/334/407	134	331	11	24	20%	7%	107	+1.9
✕Richie Palacios 2023 · MLB	26	52→53	43→45	58→55	50	246/318/368	122	305	8	20	21%	8%	95	+1.0	230/316/348	118	272	11	19	19%	10%	91	+0.7	220/314/331	111	256	12	20	18%	11%	84	+0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps