Nathan Church — OGILVIE

Nathan ChurchLF St. Louis Cardinals

Age 26 L/L 5'10" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 0.250 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION254 act + 169 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†99

AVG/OBP/SLG.251 / .305 / .399

PA169

HR5

K%19

BB%6

BABIP287

ISO148

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT51

Whiff%

902.9%

xwOBA

210.274

POWER40

Barrel%

406.9

Avg EV

1686.5

Bat Spd

4871.1

EYE50

Chase%

907.9%

SPEED58

Sprint

7328.4

DEFENSE54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.250 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$3M	+$1M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$20M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	111	98	16	1	1	0	6	21	5	3	1	163	248	194	442	31	205	19	5	205	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	111	95	18	1	1	0	9	14	5	3	1	189	294	221	515	32	220	13	8	246	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	518	474	106	20	2	2	27	88	15	21	12	224	287	287	574	63	270	17	5	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	518	455	127	24	2	3	46	60	15	21	12	279	364	360	725	81	316	12	9	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	2 teams	—	599	552	128	23	1	5	32	97	6	27	6	232	281	304	586	72	270	16	5	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	2 teams	—	599	537	149	23	2	9	46	65	6	27	6	277	341	378	719	101	299	11	8	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	3 teams	—	436	399	121	17	6	14	27	64	4	16	4	303	353	481	835	178	330	15	6	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	3 teams	—	436	390	122	19	5	14	35	53	4	16	4	313	374	495	869	182	331	12	8	378	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	MLB	STL	—	254	237	56	9	1	8	13	54	2	5	3	236	282	384	666	148	271	21	5	291	81	-5	-0	+0	-3	+7	-0.1
YTD	26	MLB	STL	—	254	237	56	9	1	8	13	54	2	5	3	236	282	384	666	148	271	21	5	294	83	-5	-0	+0	-3	+7	-0.0
ROS	26	MLB	STL	100%	169	155	39	6	1	5	10	33	2	4	1	251	305	399	704	148	289	19	6	314	99	-0	+0	+0	-2	+5	0.3
ROS	26	MLB	STL	100%	169	155	39	6	1	5	10	33	2	4	1	252	305	400	705	148	289	20	6	307	93	-1	+0	+0	-2	+5	0.2
FULL	26	MLB	STL	—	423	392	95	15	2	13	23	87	4	9	4	242	291	390	681	148	278	21	5	298	86	-7	+0	+0	-5	+12	0.1
TOT	26	MLB	STL	—	423	392	95	15	2	13	23	87	4	9	4	242	291	390	681	148	278	21	5	300	88	-6	+0	+0	-5	+12	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	STL	92%	615	567	144	23	4	18	37	119	6	16	5	254	307	404	710	150	290	19	6	315	99	-1	+1	+0	-7	+17	1.2
2028	28	MLB	STL	92%	603	556	141	22	4	18	37	118	5	15	5	254	306	405	711	151	289	20	6	314	98	-1	+1	-1	-6	+17	1.0
2029	29	MLB	STL	92%	591	544	137	21	4	17	37	116	5	14	4	252	305	399	704	147	288	20	6	311	96	-2	+1	-1	-6	+17	0.8
2027	27	MLB	STL	92%	566	522	133	21	4	17	34	110	5	15	5	255	307	408	715	153	289	19	6	308	94	-4	+1	+0	-6	+16	0.7
2028	28	MLB	STL	92%	555	511	129	20	4	16	34	108	5	14	5	252	305	401	707	149	289	19	6	307	93	-5	+1	-1	-6	+16	0.6
2029	29	MLB	STL	92%	544	500	126	20	3	16	34	107	5	13	4	252	306	400	706	148	288	20	6	305	91	-5	+1	-1	-6	+15	0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1899	1744	437	68	12	55	115	376	20	47	15	251	304	398	702	147	289	20	6	304	91	-20	+3	+1	-18	+54	2.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	149	23	4	19	39	129	7	16	5	250	303	397	700	147	287	20	6	304	91	-7	+1	+0	-6	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	3642	3345	832	133	23	79	213	656	48	116	38	249	303	373	676	124	286	18	6	298	86	-57	+8	+1	-33	+103	2.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	149	24	4	14	38	117	9	21	7	250	305	374	678	124	287	18	6	298	86	-10	+1	+0	-6	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	22	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	111	95	18	1	1	0	9	14	5	3	1	189	294	221	515	32	220	13	8	246	47	-7	+0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2023	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	518	455	127	24	2	3	46	60	15	21	12	279	364	360	725	81	316	12	9	332	112	+7	-1	—	—	+15	2.2
2024	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	541	482	129	22	1	9	43	60	6	24	4	268	335	373	708	106	286	11	8	316	100	-0	+3	—	—	+15	1.9
2024	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	58	55	20	1	1	0	3	5	0	3	2	364	397	418	815	55	400	9	5	367	139	+3	-0	—	—	+2	0.4
2025	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	65	56	10	1	0	1	3	18	3	1	0	179	258	250	508	71	237	28	5	229	34	-5	+0	+3	+2	+2	0.2
2025	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	242	215	72	11	4	7	24	25	0	9	4	335	400	521	921	186	353	10	10	401	165	+18	+0	—	—	+7	2.5
2025	25	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	129	119	40	7	1	6	8	10	1	6	0	336	383	563	946	227	327	8	6	410	172	+11	+1	—	—	+4	1.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	65	56	10	1	0	1	3	18	3	1	0	179	258	250	508	71	237	28	5	229	34	-5	+0	+3	+2	+2	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	8	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
	/162	664	17	29	251	317	406	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Emil Brownlast yr '08 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,335 PA	6	2,335	57	47	263	326	406	-24	-8	5.3	5.3
#2Emil Brownlast yr '08 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,335 PA	/162	664	16	13	263	326	406	-6.7	-2.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Shane Halterlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,744 PA	5	1,744	41	11	247	305	396	-6	+8	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	16	4	247	305	396	-2.1	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,333	68	58	252	302	400	-25	+11	3.4	3.4
	/162	664	19	16	252	302	400	-7.1	+3.0	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Chris Singletonlast yr '05 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,909 PA	5	1,909	28	61	265	308	392	-9	-3	3.3	3.3
	/162	664	10	21	265	308	392	-3.0	-1.2	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Nate Schierholtzlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,275 PA	8	2,275	52	30	253	302	405	-24	-6	2.0	2.8
	/162	664	15	9	253	302	405	-7.1	-1.8	0.6	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nathan Church (OGILVIE)	26	55→51	40	55→58	50	242/291/390	148	278	13	9	21%	5%	88	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Andy Dirks 2012 · MLB	26	51→54	49→55	53→55	45	256/300/402	146	287	17	19	18%	5%	96	+1.5	273/327/418	145	315	15	11	18%	7%	111	+2.5	285/344/425	140	329	14	7	17%	8%	116	+2.0
✕Tommy Edman 2021 · MLB	26	54→57	47→50	56→55	45	264/314/407	143	311	14	17	20%	6%	103	+1.9	259/312/396	137	296	12	25	16%	6%	100	+1.7	257/312/392	135	291	12	29	16%	6%	96	+1.5
✕Josh Rojas 2020 · MLB	26	46→54	47→50	55	49	230/296/376	146	276	14	25	22%	8%	89	+0.9	243/316/375	132	305	12	19	23%	10%	96	+1.5	251/325/369	118	318	10	18	23%	10%	95	+1.2
✕Richie Palacios 2023 · MLB	26	52	44→50	59→55	51	251/323/381	130	310	9	20	21%	9%	100	+1.7	231/317/354	123	272	12	19	19%	10%	92	+1.2	219/314/336	116	253	12	20	18%	11%	83	+0.3
✕Scott Cousins 2011 · MLB	26	48→51	48→50	55	43	239/284/389	150	296	14	16	24%	6%	86	+0.8	229/280/353	124	301	12	16	27%	6%	75	-0.0	220/272/320	101	299	8	20	28%	5%	59	-0.5
●TJ Friedl 2023 · MLB	27	46→54	47→50	55	48	231/299/374	143	270	14	16	20%	7%	89	+0.9	245/325/396	151	276	16	19	17%	9%	106	+2.2	248/339/390	142	278	16	18	16%	10%	108	+2.0
✕Jake Alu 2023 · AAA	26	51→53	50	51→50	43	253/302/413	160	312	16	13	24%	6%	101	+1.8	233/286/340	107	284	10	17	20%	6%	74	-0.1	224/279/303	80	271	7	21	19%	7%	60	-0.7
✕Tim Smith 2012 · AA	26	50→51	48→50	51→55	43	254/293/392	139	287	17	16	19%	5%	91	+1.1	242/293/365	123	287	13	10	20%	5%	84	+0.6	251/306/349	98	299	9	5	18%	5%	83	+0.2
✕Will Brennan 2023 · MLB	25	56→62	44→45	53→50	49	273/326/402	128	314	10	16	16%	6%	106	+2.2	265/306/379	114	300	10	14	15%	5%	92	+1.2	266/304/368	102	300	10	10	14%	4%	85	+0.3
✕Kevin Kiermaier 2016 · MLB	26	52→55	47→55	58→55	45	256/298/406	150	297	12	18	19%	5%	96	+1.5	247/309/411	164	292	17	21	21%	7%	103	+1.9	238/310/403	165	285	18	23	22%	8%	97	+1.0
✕Manuel Margot 2020 · MLB	25	50→53	48→50	54→60	49	248/306/401	154	286	15	19	19%	8%	98	+1.6	251/311/380	129	291	12	20	17%	8%	95	+1.4	256/312/371	114	298	10	15	17%	7%	89	+0.7
✕Chris Heisey 2011 · MLB	26	49→52	50→55	52→55	46	247/307/404	157	290	17	14	21%	6%	100	+1.7	245/298/410	165	294	20	10	23%	6%	98	+1.6	243/294/408	165	288	20	9	23%	5%	93	+0.6
✕Matt Watson 2006 · MLB	27	51→53	48→50	53→50	54	254/319/399	145	277	15	11	15%	9%	103	+1.9	253/319/391	138	286	14	8	16%	9%	102	+1.8	254/318/404	150	286	16	1	17%	8%	102	+0.7
●Felix Pie 2011 · MLB	26	52→55	46→50	50→60	46	256/302/397	141	299	13	10	19%	6%	95	+1.4	237/283/365	128	289	10	20	21%	6%	79	+0.3	250/303/403	153	303	14	25	22%	6%	95	+0.9
✕Josh Kroeger 2009 · AAA	26	51→56	49→50	49→50	44	254/300/409	155	305	16	11	23%	6%	98	+1.6	230/277/367	137	264	15	16	19%	6%	78	+0.2	213/272/356	144	233	17	11	17%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Amed Rosario 2022 · MLB	26	56→60	46→50	54→55	43	275/314/408	133	329	13	13	20%	5%	103	+1.9	274/310/396	122	327	10	16	18%	5%	98	+1.6	275/309/389	114	328	8	18	18%	4%	94	+1.1
✕Kyle Isbel 2023 · MLB	26	45→53	47→50	53→55	44	225/286/367	142	286	14	19	26%	6%	82	+0.5	237/289/375	138	287	12	14	21%	6%	85	+0.7	242/292/371	130	288	10	11	19%	6%	83	+0.4
●Willi Castro 2023 · MLB	26	50→53	47→50	50→55	41	246/293/385	138	300	14	14	23%	5%	89	+0.9	245/319/386	141	309	13	22	24%	7%	101	+1.8	241/326/381	140	307	13	23	24%	8%	100	+1.4
●Larry Bigbie 2004 · MLB	26	55→56	48→50	52→50	51	272/336/415	142	326	15	13	21%	9%	115	+2.7	260/323/395	135	323	15	10	23%	9%	104	+2.0	253/319/377	124	320	13	8	24%	9%	95	+0.7
●Alejandro De Aza 2010 · MLB	26	49→59	46→50	52→55	46	240/298/379	139	295	11	15	22%	7%	89	+1.0	269/324/397	128	327	9	23	19%	7%	105	+2.1	273/334/406	134	330	12	24	20%	7%	107	+2.3