Luke Davis — OGILVIE

Luke DavisC Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 23 S/R 6'0" / 205 lbs A+ HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION184 act + 23 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.150 / .261 / .200

PA23

HR0

K%30

BB%13

BABIP234

ISO50

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 38 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT38

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE78

scouting grade only

SPEED49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	132	98	14	0	0	2	33	27	1	0	0	143	364	204	568	61	174	20	25	294	85	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2025	22	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	113	82	16	4	0	1	25	23	2	0	0	195	394	280	675	85	242	20	22	319	102	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2025	22	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	42	30	8	2	0	2	12	7	0	0	0	267	476	533	1.010	267	286	17	29	446	188	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	132	111	14	0	0	2	20	36	1	0	0	126	265	180	445	54	166	27	15	215	32	-11	+0	—	—	+3	-0.8
2025	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	113	88	15	4	0	1	19	31	2	0	0	170	330	250	580	80	217	27	17	276	73	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	42	34	6	1	0	2	8	10	0	0	0	176	333	382	716	206	220	24	19	331	110	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2025	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	287	233	35	5	0	4	47	77	3	0	0	150	300	223	524	73	199	27	16	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	287	210	38	6	0	5	70	57	3	0	0	181	392	281	673	100	217	20	24	326	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	287	235	35	5	0	4	47	77	3	0	0	149	300	221	522	72	194	27	16	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	287	235	35	5	0	4	47	77	3	0	0	149	300	221	522	72	194	27	16	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	PHI	—	184	159	26	5	1	3	25	64	0	2	0	164	277	264	541	101	250	35	14	251	56	-10	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ RAW	PHI	—	184	146	30	6	1	4	38	48	0	2	0	205	370	342	712	137	277	26	21	333	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A+ MLE	PHI	0%	23	20	3	1	0	0	3	7	0	0	0	150	261	200	461	50	232	30	13	262	63	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	A+ MLE	PHI	—	207	179	29	6	1	3	28	71	0	2	0	162	275	257	532	95	248	34	14	252	57	-11	+0	+0	+4	+4	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PHI	30%	317	268	47	9	1	6	44	93	2	4	1	175	296	284	580	108	240	29	14	271	70	-11	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	44%	379	322	60	11	2	8	51	108	3	4	1	186	303	307	611	121	244	28	13	277	73	-12	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	PHI	51%	418	357	67	12	2	9	55	118	3	5	1	188	301	308	609	120	247	28	13	280	75	-12	+1	+0	+7	+9	0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	PHI	52%	436	372	70	13	2	9	58	123	3	5	1	188	303	306	609	118	248	28	13	281	76	-12	+1	+0	+8	+9	0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	PHI	53%	443	378	70	13	2	9	59	125	3	5	1	185	300	302	602	116	247	28	13	280	76	-13	+1	-1	+8	+10	0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	PHI	53%	440	375	70	13	2	9	59	125	3	4	1	187	302	304	606	117	246	28	13	278	74	-13	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	PHI	52%	435	371	67	12	1	9	58	125	3	4	1	181	296	291	587	111	245	29	13	275	73	-14	+0	-2	+8	+9	0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	PHI	52%	411	350	62	11	1	8	55	119	3	3	1	177	294	283	577	106	242	29	13	271	70	-15	+0	-3	+7	+9	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	PHI	30%	96	82	15	3	0	2	13	28	1	1	0	183	302	293	595	110	242	29	14	270	70	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	44%	168	142	27	5	1	4	23	48	1	2	0	190	307	324	631	134	247	29	14	276	73	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	PHI	51%	212	180	34	6	1	5	28	60	2	2	1	189	305	317	621	128	249	28	13	278	75	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	PHI	52%	229	195	37	7	1	5	30	64	2	3	1	190	304	313	617	123	250	28	13	280	76	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	PHI	53%	236	201	38	7	1	5	31	67	2	3	1	189	303	308	612	119	250	28	13	279	76	-7	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	PHI	53%	231	196	37	7	1	5	31	66	2	2	0	189	306	311	617	122	248	29	13	277	74	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	PHI	52%	227	193	37	7	1	5	30	65	2	2	0	192	307	316	623	124	247	29	13	274	73	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	PHI	52%	213	181	33	6	1	4	28	62	2	2	0	182	299	293	591	110	244	29	13	270	70	-8	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1612	1370	258	48	7	35	214	460	14	17	3	188	304	310	614	122	253	29	13	276	72	-50	+2	-4	+29	+35	1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	552	104	19	3	14	86	185	6	7	1	188	304	310	614	121	253	28	13	276	72	-20	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3589	3046	551	100	13	71	489	1020	26	34	8	181	299	292	592	111	243	28	14	275	72	-104	+4	-7	+59	+72	2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	552	99	18	2	13	89	185	5	6	1	179	299	290	589	111	240	28	14	275	72	-20	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#3Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.4	1,613	33	17	184	297	299	+29	+16	2.5	2.4
/162	664	14	7	+11.9	+6.6	1.0	pk7: 2
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Davis (OGILVIE)	23	33→38	37→42	44→49	78	164/288/261	96	232	4	4	30%	14%	63	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Papierski 2019 · A	23	37→44	39→40	47→40	54	180/284/263	83	241	7	6	26%	11%	61	-1.5	192/281/278	86	270	8	4	29%	10%	63	-1.4	200/288/293	93	258	9	0	25%	10%	66	-0.6
✕Austin Elkins 2014 · A	23	43→42	40	49→50	53	208/296/306	98	259	7	13	22%	10%	74	-0.5	216/295/307	91	278	7	10	23%	9%	74	-0.6	211/298/277	66	273	4	6	22%	9%	64	-0.5
✕Anthony Seigler 2023 · A	24	41→39	42→45	46→55	56	196/304/308	112	272	9	11	28%	13%	78	-0.3	197/295/308	111	251	10	20	24%	12%	75	-0.5	219/309/345	126	268	10	25	21%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Jose Herrera 2021 · A	24	43	40	47→40	50	209/288/305	96	279	8	5	26%	10%	71	-0.8	218/290/310	92	290	9	5	26%	9%	72	-0.7	213/289/293	79	280	8	3	25%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Nolan Fontana 2014 · A	23	45→43	40	52→50	59	208/323/305	98	291	7	14	28%	14%	85	+0.2	207/302/294	87	304	4	9	29%	12%	74	-0.6	184/288/307	123	253	11	12	29%	12%	71	-0.3
✕Kawika Emsley-Pai 2013 · A	24	43	36→30	46→40	55	198/298/270	72	275	3	7	26%	12%	67	-1.1	197/293/273	76	284	5	7	29%	11%	65	-1.2	163/278/221	58	239	5	4	30%	13%	48	-0.7
✕Trent Woodward 2015 · A	23	43	41→45	47→30	47	207/286/310	103	278	7	6	27%	8%	72	-0.7	220/287/309	89	313	7	4	29%	8%	71	-0.8	220/290/306	86	311	8	1	30%	8%	68	-0.3
✕Trei Cruz 2022 · A	24	36→46	39→45	52→50	53	171/281/262	90	275	5	14	36%	13%	59	-1.6	189/272/295	106	278	9	11	32%	10%	63	-1.4	228/304/337	109	310	9	10	27%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Zack Short 2018 · A	23	42→39	45→50	48→45	53	208/299/335	127	266	12	11	25%	10%	82	+0.0	198/288/331	133	281	13	8	31%	10%	77	-0.3	175/276/313	138	241	16	6	32%	11%	66	-0.7
✕Marcus Littlewood 2015 · A	23	41	42→45	49→45	47	202/269/308	106	265	9	5	26%	8%	63	-1.3	210/269/319	109	275	10	5	26%	7%	66	-1.1	207/261/311	104	269	10	3	26%	7%	59	-0.8
✕Daniel Vellojin 2023 · AA	23	39	45	42→45	51	196/292/318	122	278	13	6	32%	12%	76	-0.4	179/261/272	93	255	9	6	31%	9%	53	-2.1	154/237/226	72	219	7	4	31%	9%	32	-1.3
✕Thomas Dillard 2021 · A	23	45→38	44→45	52→50	51	215/305/333	118	304	12	10	31%	11%	84	+0.1	196/283/318	122	326	13	9	40%	10%	72	-0.7	182/275/301	120	302	13	9	40%	10%	64	-1.1
✕Kevin Encarnacion 2015 · A	23	45	42→40	44→55	49	218/293/323	104	278	9	10	24%	8%	76	-0.4	221/275/307	86	298	6	8	27%	6%	65	-1.2	224/275/296	72	297	6	7	25%	5%	59	-0.7
✕Francisco Soriano 2010 · A	23	46→47	36→40	45→50	57	210/310/278	69	284	3	11	24%	12%	73	-0.6	210/279/298	88	278	4	15	24%	8%	65	-1.2	205/278/292	87	269	4	16	24%	8%	61	-1.0
✕Jose Jimenez 2010 · A	23	41	42→40	48→30	51	200/282/305	105	262	9	4	26%	10%	68	-1.0	210/271/306	96	268	9	3	24%	8%	64	-1.3	206/265/294	88	259	9	1	23%	7%	57	-1.0
✕Griff Erickson 2011 · A	23	43→50	40→45	50→40	48	206/268/300	94	256	6	4	22%	8%	61	-1.5	221/291/339	118	274	11	4	22%	9%	79	-0.2	215/291/341	126	265	13	2	23%	9%	78	-0.2
✕Patrick Bailey 2023 · A	24	38→48	46→45	47→45	46	195/269/321	126	268	13	5	31%	9%	68	-1.0	226/287/344	118	301	12	5	27%	8%	78	-0.3	231/291/344	113	305	11	4	27%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Casey Turgeon 2016 · A	23	45	37→40	50→45	53	210/297/285	75	261	4	9	20%	10%	70	-0.9	208/293/302	94	266	7	7	23%	10%	72	-0.7	199/289/298	99	252	9	5	23%	10%	68	-0.5
✕Oliver Dominguez 2012 · A	23	40	40	52→45	49	197/272/290	93	263	7	15	27%	9%	61	-1.5	198/260/296	98	289	8	8	32%	7%	57	-1.8	182/242/277	95	271	7	3	34%	7%	44	-1.0
✕Yasel Antuna 2023 · AA	23	37→35	43→45	48→50	48	187/270/293	106	259	11	14	30%	10%	61	-1.5	189/270/286	97	275	9	13	32%	9%	59	-1.6	143/232/224	81	211	7	12	33%	10%	31	-1.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps