Luke Davis — OGILVIE

Luke DavisC Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 23 S/R 6'0" / 205 lbs A+ HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION184 act + 122 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.164 / .288 / .251

PA122

HR2

K%30

BB%14

BABIP228

ISO87

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 39 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT39

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE77

scouting grade only

SPEED49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A+	3 teams	—	287	233	36	6	0	4	47	75	3	0	0	155	304	232	536	77	203	26	16	258	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	3 teams	—	287	210	38	6	0	5	70	57	3	0	0	181	392	281	673	100	217	20	24	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A+	PHI	—	184	159	26	5	1	3	25	64	0	2	0	164	277	264	541	101	250	35	14	251	50	-10	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
YTD	23	A+	PHI	—	184	146	30	6	1	4	38	48	0	2	0	205	370	342	712	137	277	26	21	333	113	+3	+0	+0	+3	+5	1.2
ROS	23	A+	PHI	0%	122	103	17	3	0	2	17	37	1	2	0	164	288	251	538	87	232	30	14	261	58	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
ROS	23	MLB	PHI	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						234	0	0	258	55	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	A+	PHI	—	185	160	26	5	1	3	25	64	0	2	0	163	276	263	538	100	247	35	14	251	50	-10	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
TOT	23	A+	PHI	—	306	262	43	8	1	5	42	101	1	4	0	164	281	259	540	95	241	33	14	255	53	-16	+1	+0	+5	+9	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	PHI	30%	327	278	48	9	1	6	44	96	2	4	1	173	290	277	567	104	240	29	13	270	65	-13	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.3
2028	25	MLB	PHI	44%	386	329	61	11	2	8	51	111	3	4	1	185	300	304	604	119	245	29	13	276	69	-13	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.5
2029	26	MLB	PHI	51%	422	361	67	12	2	9	55	120	3	5	1	186	298	305	603	119	247	28	13	279	71	-14	+1	+0	+8	+12	0.7
2030	27	MLB	PHI	52%	439	376	70	13	2	9	57	125	3	5	1	186	298	303	601	117	248	28	13	280	72	-14	+1	+0	+8	+12	0.7
2031	28	MLB	PHI	53%	445	380	70	13	2	9	59	127	3	5	1	184	299	300	599	116	248	29	13	279	72	-14	+1	-1	+8	+13	0.6
2032	29	MLB	PHI	53%	441	377	70	13	2	9	58	127	3	4	1	186	299	302	601	117	247	29	13	277	70	-15	+0	-1	+8	+12	0.5
2033	30	MLB	PHI	52%	436	372	67	12	1	9	58	126	3	4	1	180	296	290	586	110	245	29	13	274	68	-16	+0	-2	+8	+12	0.3
2034	31	MLB	PHI	56%	411	351	62	11	1	8	54	120	3	3	1	177	292	282	574	105	242	29	13	270	65	-16	+0	-3	+7	+12	0.0
2027	24	MLB	PHI	30%	99	85	15	3	0	2	13	29	1	1	0	176	293	282	575	106	241	29	13	267	62	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2028	25	MLB	PHI	44%	171	145	28	5	1	4	23	49	1	2	0	193	308	324	632	131	246	29	13	272	66	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2029	26	MLB	PHI	51%	214	182	34	6	1	5	28	61	2	2	1	187	302	313	615	126	249	29	13	275	69	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2030	27	MLB	PHI	52%	230	196	37	7	1	5	30	65	2	3	1	189	303	311	614	122	250	28	13	276	70	-8	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2031	28	MLB	PHI	53%	237	202	38	7	1	5	31	68	2	3	1	188	302	307	609	119	249	29	13	275	69	-8	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.2
2032	29	MLB	PHI	53%	232	197	37	7	1	5	31	67	2	2	0	188	304	310	614	122	248	29	13	273	67	-9	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.2
2033	30	MLB	PHI	52%	227	193	37	7	1	5	30	66	2	2	0	192	307	316	623	124	247	29	13	271	65	-9	+0	-1	+4	+6	0.1
2034	31	MLB	PHI	56%	231	196	36	7	1	4	31	68	2	2	0	184	301	291	592	107	244	29	13	267	62	-10	+0	-2	+4	+7	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1642	1397	262	49	7	35	217	473	14	17	3	188	303	308	611	120	253	29	13	272	67	-62	+2	-4	+29	+47	1.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	553	104	19	3	14	86	187	6	7	1	188	304	309	614	121	254	29	13	272	67	-24	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.5
Career	—			—	3716	3160	568	103	13	73	500	1064	27	36	8	180	297	290	587	110	242	29	13	274	68	-135	+4	-7	+66	+105	3.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	553	99	18	2	13	87	186	5	6	1	179	296	289	585	110	240	29	13	274	68	-24	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	132	98	14	0	2	33	27	1	143	364	204	568	61	174	20	25	294	83	-3	+0	—	—	+4	0.1
2025	22	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	113	82	16	4	1	25	23	2	195	394	280	675	85	242	20	22	319	103	+0	+0	—	—	+3	0.4
2025	22	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	42	30	8	2	2	12	7	0	267	476	533	1.010	267	286	17	29	446	199	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Austin Barneslast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,639 PA	8	1,639	35	22	225	325	344	+29	+59	12.4	12.5
	/162	664	14	9	225	325	344	+11.9	+23.8	5.0	pk7: 13
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	10	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#5Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#5Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,643	33	17	184	295	298	+29	+16	2.0	1.9
	/162	664	13	7	184	295	298	+11.9	+6.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Davis (OGILVIE)	23	34→39	37→42	44→49	77	164/281/259	95	241	5	4	33%	14%	53	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Papierski 2019 · A	23	38→44	39→45	47→40	54	184/290/266	83	249	7	6	27%	12%	59	-1.1	192/281/280	88	271	9	4	30%	10%	59	-1.1	204/292/309	105	261	11	0	25%	10%	68	-0.3
✕Austin Elkins 2014 · A	23	43→41	40	49→50	53	207/296/306	99	256	7	13	21%	10%	71	-0.3	215/295/304	89	278	6	10	23%	9%	69	-0.4	208/296/270	62	273	3	6	23%	9%	57	-0.5
✕Nolan Fontana 2014 · A	23	42→43	39→40	52→50	58	198/312/287	89	285	6	14	30%	14%	73	-0.1	204/300/291	87	305	4	9	30%	12%	69	-0.4	184/288/308	124	252	11	12	29%	12%	68	-0.2
✕Jose Herrera 2021 · A	24	43	41→40	47→40	50	209/287/310	100	280	8	5	27%	10%	68	-0.5	214/287/309	95	287	9	5	27%	9%	66	-0.6	207/283/288	81	273	8	3	26%	9%	57	-0.6
✕Marcus Littlewood 2015 · A	23	41	41→45	49→45	46	201/266/303	102	266	8	5	27%	8%	56	-1.3	214/272/330	116	284	11	5	27%	7%	66	-0.6	212/266/328	116	280	12	3	28%	7%	60	-0.5
✕Yasel Antuna 2023 · AA	23	38→36	43→45	48→50	49	189/273/296	108	264	11	14	31%	10%	59	-1.1	189/270/286	97	280	9	13	33%	9%	55	-1.4	142/231/225	83	214	8	12	35%	9%	21	-1.5
✕Trent Woodward 2015 · A	23	43	41→40	47→30	47	207/286/310	103	278	7	6	27%	8%	68	-0.5	218/284/304	86	315	7	4	30%	8%	64	-0.8	215/283/297	82	312	8	1	31%	8%	59	-0.3
✕Casey Turgeon 2016 · A	23	44	37→40	50→45	54	207/299/281	74	259	4	9	20%	10%	66	-0.6	209/295/308	99	267	8	7	23%	10%	71	-0.3	201/292/309	108	254	10	5	23%	10%	68	-0.2
✕Kawika Emsley-Pai 2013 · A	24	43	36→30	46→40	53	198/292/268	70	276	3	7	27%	11%	59	-1.1	195/288/272	77	280	6	7	29%	11%	59	-1.1	161/272/222	60	234	6	4	30%	12%	39	-0.7
✕Jose Jimenez 2010 · A	23	41	42→40	48→30	51	200/282/305	105	262	9	4	26%	10%	64	-0.8	209/270/308	99	269	10	3	25%	8%	59	-1.1	205/264/297	92	260	10	1	24%	7%	52	-0.9
✕Anthony Seigler 2023 · A	24	40→39	42→50	46→55	56	195/303/310	115	269	9	11	28%	13%	76	+0.0	199/299/319	120	254	11	20	24%	12%	76	+0.0	226/317/363	137	277	12	28	21%	11%	91	+0.6
✕Griff Erickson 2011 · A	23	43→50	40→45	50→40	49	206/270/300	94	254	6	4	21%	8%	57	-1.2	220/291/340	120	274	11	4	23%	9%	76	+0.1	213/289/342	129	264	14	2	24%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Kevin Encarnacion 2015 · A	23	45	42→40	44→55	49	217/291/322	105	276	9	10	24%	8%	72	-0.2	217/271/300	83	294	6	8	27%	6%	57	-1.2	213/265/281	67	285	5	7	26%	5%	45	-0.8
●Trei Cruz 2022 · A	24	36→46	39→45	52→50	52	171/280/262	92	279	6	14	37%	13%	54	-1.4	188/268/301	113	284	11	11	34%	10%	57	-1.2	223/300/348	125	306	12	10	29%	9%	81	+0.3
✕J.C. Escarra 2018 · A	23	39→46	38→45	43→45	50	186/276/271	85	246	4	3	25%	9%	54	-1.4	195/259/285	90	246	8	4	23%	6%	49	-1.8	223/294/353	130	256	11	4	17%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Larry Cobb 2008 · A	23	40→43	39→45	47→50	49	193/267/275	82	244	7	10	23%	8%	50	-1.7	210/273/324	114	268	12	11	25%	6%	65	-0.7	206/269/325	118	259	13	11	25%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Daniel Vellojin 2023 · AA	23	39	46→45	42→45	52	198/293/324	126	277	14	6	32%	12%	75	-0.0	179/260/273	94	259	9	6	32%	9%	47	-1.9	150/237/225	75	215	8	4	32%	9%	24	-1.2
✕Zack Short 2018 · A	23	42→38	46→50	48→45	53	208/301/343	135	264	13	11	25%	11%	82	+0.5	198/289/339	141	285	14	8	33%	10%	77	+0.1	175/277/324	148	244	17	6	34%	11%	65	-0.5
✕Taylor Krick 2011 · A	23	43	38→30	48→40	51	205/292/282	77	270	6	7	25%	10%	63	-0.8	226/312/290	64	313	3	5	26%	8%	73	-0.1	233/324/284	51	328	2	2	26%	8%	74	-0.0
✕Oliver Dominguez 2012 · A	23	40	40	52→45	48	194/269/288	94	262	8	15	28%	9%	54	-1.4	194/256/291	97	283	8	8	32%	7%	49	-1.8	176/234/268	92	260	7	3	34%	7%	31	-1.1