Luke Davis

C Jersey Shore BlueClaws
Age 24 S/R 6'0" / 205 lbs A+ HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2077ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202522A+/A/ROKPHI287.181/.392/.2815053—.149/.290/.235
202623A+/INTL2 orgs219.222/.393/.3514371—.168/.272/.286
2027PROJMLE24MLBPHI234.175/.287/.27543640.0
2028PROJ30% MLB25MLBPHI39.181/.291/.29011670.0
2029PROJ44% MLB26MLBPHI81.185/.292/.29721690.0
Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
Chase%99
BB%95
Whiff%71
Z-Con%60
wRC+51
wOBA46
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%
CompsMichael Papierski (age 23) · Daniel Vellojin (age 24) · Marcus Littlewood (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 85 proj PA
wRC+†64
AVG/OBP/SLG.174 / .285 / .273
PA85
HR1
K%29
BB%13
ISO100
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.5 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +1.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.10.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 38
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT35
scouting grade only
POWER38
scouting grade only
EYE68
scouting grade only
SPEED44
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.3M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202522 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws — 13298 14002 33271 00 143364204568 61174 2025 294 28 — — — — — —
202522 AClearwater Threshers — 11382 16401 25232 00 195394280675 85242 2022 319 64 — — — — — —
202522 ROKFCL Phillies — 4230 8202 1270 00 2674765331.010 267286 1729 446 105 — — — — — —
202623 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws — 184146 30614 38480 20 205370342712 137277 2621 333 51 — — — — — —
202623 INTLScottsdale Scorpions — 3525 8200 1060 10 320514400914 80421 1729 428 176 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202522 A+ MLEJersey Shore BlueClaws — 132113 14002 18351 00 124250177427 53159 2714 209 28 — — — — — —
202522 A MLEClearwater Threshers — 11389 15401 18292 00 169321247568 79209 2616 263 64 — — — — — —
202522 ROK MLEFCL Phillies — 4234 6102 8100 00 176333382716 206214 2419 324 105 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLEJersey Shore BlueClaws — 184161 27514 23630 20 168272286557 118236 3412 243 51 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE3 teams — 287236 35504 44753 00 148290220510 72193 2615 247 53 — — — — — —
202522 A+ RAW3 teams — 287210 38605 70573 00 181392281673 100217 2024 326 53 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLE2 teams — 219192 31614 27750 30 161265266530 104239 3412 243 51 — — — — — —
202623 A+ RAW2 teams — 219171 38814 48540 30 222393351744 129301 2522 349 51 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE3 teams — 287238 35504 44753 00 147290218508 71187 2615 247 53 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLE2 teams — 219190 31614 27750 30 163265268533 105236 3412 243 51 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202522 A+ MLE3 teams — 287238 35504 44753 00 147290218508 71187 2615 247 53 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLE2 teams — 219190 31614 27750 30 163265268533 105236 3412 243 51 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLEPHI 0% 234200 36714 30692 31 175287275562 100241 2913 263 64 -10 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLEPHI 30% 128110 20412 16371 20 180289285575 105244 2912 267 67 -5 +0 +0 +2 +3 0.0
202926 MLB MLEPHI 44% 183157 28513 23521 21 183291292583 109246 2813 270 69 -7 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.1
203027 MLB MLEPHI 49% 225194 36714 27642 31 185292295587 110248 2812 272 70 -8 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.1
203128 MLB MLEPHI 52% 254219 42815 31722 21 187291296587 110250 2812 272 70 -9 +0 -1 +5 +6 0.0
203229 MLB MLEPHI 51% 267232 43815 31762 21 187290296585 109250 2812 271 69 -10 +0 -1 +5 +6 -0.1
203330 MLB MLEPHI 51% 274238 44815 32792 10 184286288573 104248 2912 266 66 -11 +0 -2 +5 +6 -0.2
202825 MLB CTXPHI 30% 3934 6101 5110 10 181291290581 109244 2813 270 67 -2 +0 +0 +1 +1 0.0
202926 MLB CTXPHI 44% 8170 13202 10231 10 185292297590 113247 2812 273 69 -3 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.0
203027 MLB CTXPHI 49% 11095 17302 13311 10 187293301594 114249 2812 274 70 -4 +0 +0 +2 +2 0.1
203128 MLB CTXPHI 52% 131113 21403 16371 10 188292302594 114250 2812 274 70 -5 +0 -0 +2 +3 0.0
203229 MLB CTXPHI 51% 137119 22403 16391 10 189291301592 113251 2812 273 69 -5 +0 -1 +2 +3 -0.0
203330 MLB CTXPHI 51% 141122 22403 17401 00 185287293580 107248 2812 268 66 -6 +0 -1 +3 +3 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 639553 10118014 771815 50 183288291579 108240 2812 272 64 -24 +1 -2 +11 +14 0.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650563 10218014 781845 50 181286288574 107238 2812 272 64 -24 +1 -2 +12 +14 0.0
Career— MLE — 19221651 29153733 24255514 164 176287277564 101240 2913 263 64 -53 +1 -4 +25 +31 -0.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650558 9818211 821885 51 176287274561 99240 2913 263 64 -24 +0 -2 +12 +14 -0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 184 PAwOBA .326 → .243 (−83)K% 26.1% → 34.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.09%÷1.000×1.310——34.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.65%÷1.000×0.600—×0.99812.37%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.770—×0.9980.00%
Singles /BIP19.39%÷1.000×0.870×1.012×0.99817.03%
Doubles /BIP6.12%÷1.000×0.780×1.012×0.9984.82%
Triples /BIP1.02%÷1.000×0.850×1.012×0.9980.88%
Home runs /BIP4.08%÷1.000×0.880—×0.9983.58%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .326 → .243; ISO .137 → .117; BABIP .277 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 132 PAwOBA .288 → .209 (−79)K% 20.5% → 26.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.45%÷1.002×1.310——26.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA25.00%÷1.093×0.600—×1.01213.89%
HBP% /PA0.76%—×0.770—×1.0120.59%
Singles /BIP16.90%÷0.966×0.870×1.010×1.01215.56%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.073×0.780×1.010×1.0120.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.850×1.010×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP2.82%÷1.045×0.880—×1.0122.40%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 93, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .288 → .209; ISO .061 → .057; BABIP .174 → .159. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AClearwater Threshers · 113 PAwOBA .324 → .263 (−61)K% 20.4% → 26.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.35%÷1.065×1.360——25.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA22.12%÷0.975×0.690——15.66%
HBP% /PA1.77%—×0.780——1.38%
Singles /BIP18.64%÷1.030×0.920×0.978—16.29%
Doubles /BIP6.78%÷0.975×0.830×0.978—5.65%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.923×0.910×0.978—0.00%
Home runs /BIP1.69%÷1.083×0.800——1.25%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 113, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .324 → .263; ISO .085 → .074; BABIP .242 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Phillies · 42 PAwOBA .436 → .324 (−111)K% 16.7% → 24.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.67%÷1.000×1.440——23.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA28.57%÷0.928×0.620—×0.97518.61%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9750.00%
Singles /BIP17.39%÷1.004×0.820—×0.97513.85%
Doubles /BIP8.70%÷1.015×0.720—×0.9756.01%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.720—×0.9750.00%
Home runs /BIP8.70%÷0.917×0.780—×0.9757.21%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 100, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .436 → .324; ISO .267 → .222; BABIP .286 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .