Tucker Novotny
P
Lansing Lugnuts
Age 23
LHP
6'5" / 235 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 128
ERA4.83
FIP4.83
K%21.8%
BB%13.2%
K-BB%8.6%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Stockton Ports | 30 | 9 | 78 | 334 | 97 | 37 | 5 | 30% | 2.6 | 21.5% | 13.1% | 8.4% | 1.6% | 3.82 | 3.81 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Stockton Ports | 30 | 9 | 78 | 334 | 97 | 37 | 5 | 30% | 2.6 | 29.0% | 11.1% | 18.0% | 1.5% | 3.82 | 2.87 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 22 | 0 | 35 | 159 | 37 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.9% | 17.4% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 5.71 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | OAK | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 57 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 13.2% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.8% | 13.2% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.83 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 96 | 419 | 94 | 58 | 9 | — | — | 22.3% | 13.9% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 5.15 | 4.76 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.8% | 13.2% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 60 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.61 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 62 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 62 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 61 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 26 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 41 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 50 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 53 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 166 | 0 | 174 | 736 | 169 | 82 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.11 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 94 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 52 | 9 | 112 | 493 | 100 | 71 | 8 | 17% | 2.2 | 20.3% | 14.5% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 4.41 | 4.08 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 93 | 16 | 200 | 878 | 179 | 127 | 14 | 17% | 2.2 | 20.3% | 14.5% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 4.41 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tucker Novotny (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 21.8% | 13.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.51 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 191 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | .364 | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.65 | 3.97 | 101 | 88 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 86 |
| Harry Gustin L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.77 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .271 | 5.25 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 39 | +1.48 | 3.77 | 132 | 86 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.54 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .268 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.96 | 1.84 | 238 | 86 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.19 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .324 | 4.51 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.32 | 4.19 | 201 | 85 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 85 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.48 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.05 | 4.48 | 110 | 85 |
| Kade Bragg L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 3.0% | .255 | 4.15 | 23.7% | 2.3% | 45 | -0.25 | 4.15 | 112 | 85 |
| Seth Clark L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.30 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 2.2% | .287 | 5.13 | 18.4% | 0.6% | 82 | +0.83 | 4.30 | 128 | 84 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.11 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.3% | .320 | 5.97 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.86 | 4.11 | 158 | 84 |
| Caden Monke L 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.38 | 18.9% | 12.8% | 4.1% | .323 | 5.28 | 19.0% | -0.3% | 51 | -0.10 | 3.73 | 152 | 84 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.41 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .368 | 4.36 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.05 | 3.76 | 175 | 83 |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.20 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .272 | 3.95 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 105 | -0.25 | 3.12 | 161 | 83 |
| Dante Biasi L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .251 | 6.01 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +1.13 | 4.88 | 224 | 83 |
| Chazz Martinez L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.69 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 1.5% | .361 | 3.48 | 20.9% | 7.4% | 135 | -0.21 | 3.13 | 199 | 83 |
| Lucas Knowles L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.79 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .366 | 4.10 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 177 | +0.31 | 3.37 | 275 | 82 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 19.3% | 15.7% | 2.2% | .329 | 5.86 | 17.6% | 2.4% | 49 | +1.22 | 4.64 | 107 | 82 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.76 | 23.0% | 14.0% | 1.5% | .252 | 3.66 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 67 | -0.10 | 3.53 | 201 | 82 |
| Matt Walker L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.27 | 16.7% | 13.3% | 1.6% | .324 | 4.69 | 15.5% | 4.0% | 94 | +0.42 | 4.27 | 156 | 81 |
| Jaden Woods L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.49 | 18.4% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .326 | 3.15 | 28.9% | 18.6% | 37 | -1.34 | 1.50 | 174 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 63 | 22.7% | 11.7% | 1.08 | 4.60 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |