Tucker Novotny — OGILVIE

Tucker Novotny P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 23 LHP 6'5" / 235 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION75 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%21.8%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	30	9	78	334	97	37	5	30%	2.6	21.5%	13.1%	8.4%	1.7%	3.82	3.90	—
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	30	9	78	334	97	37	5	30%	2.6	21.5%	13.1%	8.4%	1.7%	3.82	3.90	—
2025	22	A RAW	Stockton Ports	30	9	78	334	97	37	5	30%	2.6	29.0%	11.1%	18.0%	1.5%	3.82	2.87	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	31	7	75	323	84	41	7	23%	2.4	20.0%	14.6%	5.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.74	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	31	7	75	323	84	41	7	23%	2.4	20.0%	14.6%	5.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	OAK	31	7	75	323	84	41	7	23%	2.4	26.0%	12.7%	13.3%	2.2%	4.32	3.70	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	OAK	5	0	5	22	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	13.9%	7.9%	2.8%	4.93	4.93	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	80	345	89	44	8	—	—	25.7%	12.8%	13.0%	2.2%	4.36	4.76	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	OAK	72	0	75	318	71	39	9	0%	1.0	22.5%	12.4%	10.1%	2.8%	4.76	4.69	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	72	0	76	321	74	37	9	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.5%	11.4%	2.8%	4.61	4.53	+0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	72	0	76	321	74	37	9	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.4%	11.8%	2.8%	4.54	4.50	+0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	71	0	75	317	73	36	9	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.4%	11.8%	2.9%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	69	0	73	307	71	35	9	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	3.0%	4.59	4.62	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	66	0	70	293	67	35	9	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	3.1%	4.69	4.75	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	62	0	65	276	62	33	9	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.1%	10.4%	3.3%	4.83	4.93	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	OAK	30	0	32	135	30	17	4	0%	1.1	22.5%	12.4%	10.1%	2.8%	4.76	4.69	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	49	0	51	215	49	25	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.5%	11.4%	2.8%	4.61	4.53	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	57	0	60	253	59	29	7	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.4%	11.8%	2.8%	4.54	4.50	+0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	61	0	64	270	63	31	8	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.4%	11.8%	2.9%	4.54	4.54	+0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	62	0	65	274	63	32	8	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	3.0%	4.59	4.62	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	60	0	63	266	61	31	8	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	3.1%	4.69	4.75	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	57	0	60	253	57	31	8	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.1%	10.4%	3.3%	4.83	4.93	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		377	0	395	1669	382	195	49	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.7%	11.2%	3.0%	4.64	4.27	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	99	25	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.7%	11.2%	3.0%	4.64	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		61	16	153	657	136	91	15	26%	2.5	20.8%	13.8%	6.9%	2.2%	4.07	4.32	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	21	200	861	179	119	19	26%	2.5	20.8%	13.8%	6.9%	2.2%	4.07	4.32	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tucker Novotny (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	21.8%	13.9%	2.8%	—	4.57	22.8%	11.1%	227	-0.36	—	—	—
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	88
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	84
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	83
Luis Ysla L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	23	SW	4.88	19.6%	12.5%	3.4%	.412	4.47	18.3%	4.3%	208	-0.41	3.75	378	82
Matt Walker L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SU	4.21	16.7%	13.3%	1.5%	.324	4.62	15.5%	4.0%	94	+0.41	4.21	156	81
Shane McCain L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.8%	9.7%	3.0%	.324	4.75	16.6%	10.0%	125	+0.41	4.34	201	80
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.29	32.8%	19.4%	102	-1.28	3.04	255	79
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	79
Andre Wheeler L 2015 · 3.82 FIP	23	SW	3.82	16.8%	11.5%	1.2%	.321	5.17	16.5%	4.4%	87	+1.35	3.82	150	79
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	79
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	79
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	78
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.40	163	78
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	78
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.16	15.9%	4.3%	319	-0.25	3.35	498	78
Jeffrey Springs L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	23	SW	4.37	21.0%	10.1%	3.2%	.265	3.59	25.7%	16.0%	233	-0.78	1.36	898	77
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	77
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	77
Jared Tobey L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.320	5.43	22.4%	8.2%	73	+1.44	3.99	158	76
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	71	22.7%	11.9%	1.13	4.68
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41