Hunter Dobbins — OGILVIE

Hunter DobbinsC Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 204 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION200 act + 133 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†36

AVG/OBP/SLG.172 / .234 / .294

PA133

HR3

K%40

BB%7

BABIP267

ISO123

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 46

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER46

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	58	52	5	2	0	1	4	27	2	1	0	96	190	192	382	96	167	47	7	171	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	58	49	7	3	0	1	7	19	2	1	0	143	276	265	541	122	207	33	12	259	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A	DET	—	200	187	27	7	1	4	12	98	1	0	0	144	200	257	457	112	271	49	6	211	20	-18	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.9
YTD	23	A	DET	—	200	182	39	10	2	6	17	71	1	0	0	214	285	390	675	176	314	36	8	301	88	-3	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.7
ROS	23	A	DET	0%	133	122	21	4	1	3	9	53	1	1	0	172	234	294	529	123	268	40	7	233	36	-10	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.3
ROS	23	MLB	DET	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		263	—	—	223	29	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	23	A	DET	—	200	188	27	7	1	4	12	98	1	0	0	144	200	255	455	112	267	49	6	211	20	-18	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.9
TOT	23	A	DET	—	333	309	48	11	2	7	21	151	2	1	0	155	214	272	485	116	269	45	6	220	26	-28	+0	+0	+6	+9	-1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	DET	30%	279	256	47	10	2	6	19	106	2	3	1	184	245	309	554	125	274	38	7	246	47	-17	+0	+0	+5	+8	-0.4
2028	25	MLB	DET	44%	348	317	59	12	2	8	25	127	3	3	1	186	252	312	564	126	276	36	7	253	52	-19	+0	+0	+6	+10	-0.3
2027	24	MLB	DET	30%	84	77	14	3	0	2	6	32	1	1	0	182	250	299	549	117	269	38	7	236	39	-6	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
2028	25	MLB	DET	44%	154	141	25	5	1	3	11	56	1	1	0	177	242	291	533	113	271	36	7	242	44	-10	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	238	219	39	8	1	5	17	88	2	2	0	178	245	292	537	114	268	37	7	240	42	-16	+0	+0	+4	+7	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	598	107	22	3	14	46	240	5	5	0	179	244	296	540	117	268	37	7	240	42	-43	+1	+0	+12	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	818	747	132	28	5	18	57	313	8	8	2	177	243	300	542	123	271	38	7	242	43	-53	+1	+0	+15	+23	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	104	22	4	14	45	249	6	6	2	175	240	296	537	121	269	38	7	242	43	-42	+0	+0	+12	+18	-1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	58	49	7	3	0	1	7	19	2	1	0	143	276	265	541	122	207	33	12	259	56	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	15	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.3	10.9
	/162	664	12	3	194	253	300	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	363	8	4	184	247	303	+6	+8	-0.5	-0.2
	/162	664	14	7	184	247	303	+11.9	+14.6	-0.8	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Hunter Dobbins (OGILVIE)	23	20→25	41→46	43→48	49	155/214/272	116	269	7	1	45%	6%	26	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Taylor Snyder 2018 · A	23	35→31	43→50	47→50	33	181/224/287	106	270	10	13	36%	4%	34	-2.8	185/234/295	110	296	11	12	39%	5%	40	-2.4	179/230/328	148	260	18	12	38%	5%	47	-1.3
✕Joe Donovan 2023 · A	24	35	43→45	51→40	35	174/245/285	111	285	11	7	41%	6%	44	-2.1	197/254/306	109	317	9	5	39%	5%	53	-1.5	196/252/314	118	301	9	0	36%	4%	50	-0.7
✕Brock Carpenter 2018 · A	23	37	41→40	48→30	42	184/257/280	96	282	10	6	36%	8%	47	-1.9	201/263/302	101	330	8	6	38%	7%	55	-1.4	188/249/306	119	317	7	3	40%	7%	46	-0.7
✕Tate Blackman 2018 · A	23	40→34	42→45	49→40	44	198/269/304	106	269	10	4	29%	7%	59	-1.1	175/249/267	92	300	10	4	41%	8%	41	-2.3	154/232/237	84	271	10	3	44%	8%	25	-2.5
✕Tyler Grimes 2013 · A	23	38	41→40	46→40	41	184/265/285	101	288	8	8	36%	8%	53	-1.5	205/278/297	92	316	7	5	34%	7%	60	-1.0	204/278/288	84	318	5	2	34%	7%	56	-0.7
✕James Parker 2023 · A	23	35→23	42→50	51→45	35	177/230/279	102	291	9	7	41%	6%	35	-2.8	182/248/308	126	328	15	7	45%	8%	50	-1.7	144/223/290	146	256	21	4	50%	9%	33	-1.4
✕Pedro Gonzalez 2021 · A	23	36→28	46→45	50	36	186/239/311	125	287	14	10	39%	6%	47	-1.9	171/231/269	98	356	10	9	51%	6%	33	-2.9	114/179/189	75	259	9	7	56%	6%	-9	-3.2
✕Caleb Hamilton 2018 · A	23	35	42→45	43→45	47	171/267/278	106	270	9	5	37%	11%	52	-1.6	184/252/283	99	267	8	7	32%	8%	46	-2.0	145/239/282	137	205	21	3	40%	10%	39	-0.8
✕Chris Baker 2018 · A	23	35→28	42→45	48→45	35	178/226/279	101	268	10	6	37%	5%	33	-2.9	184/232/278	94	299	9	7	39%	5%	35	-2.8	163/207/246	82	271	10	5	42%	4%	14	-1.3
✕Matt Winn 2016 · A	23	40→34	40→50	50→30	37	196/246/288	92	293	7	7	34%	6%	43	-2.2	190/247/324	134	306	16	2	41%	7%	54	-1.4	173/233/309	136	290	16	0	44%	7%	41	-1.5
✕J.V. Martinez 2022 · A	23	40→34	43→45	47→30	40	197/257/312	115	273	10	3	31%	6%	55	-1.4	203/259/310	107	292	9	6	32%	6%	55	-1.4	173/226/265	91	254	8	2	34%	5%	27	-1.1
✕Joe Cronin 2018 · A	24	36	40→45	46→50	45	178/268/270	92	268	8	8	34%	9%	50	-1.7	186/274/284	98	291	9	9	36%	9%	56	-1.3	170/264/263	93	267	9	10	36%	9%	45	-1.0
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	189/255/325	136	272	15	10	35%	6%	59	-1.1	206/270/351	145	304	16	9	36%	6%	72	-0.2	198/264/347	149	294	17	7	37%	6%	65	-0.2
✕Edwin Díaz 2019 · AA	23	33→31	42→50	49→40	37	173/232/276	103	267	11	4	38%	7%	35	-2.8	177/239/308	131	290	15	4	42%	7%	47	-1.9	158/222/310	152	235	22	4	42%	7%	38	-1.2
✕Connor Kaiser 2021 · A	24	37	42→45	46→50	46	187/264/290	103	261	10	6	31%	9%	53	-1.5	192/262/318	126	281	14	11	35%	8%	59	-1.1	170/251/290	121	252	14	17	37%	9%	45	-0.9
✕Fabian Pertuz 2023 · A	22	37→33	41→40	49→55	33	185/229/278	92	285	8	9	37%	4%	33	-2.9	172/223/263	91	273	9	12	38%	5%	28	-3.2	143/198/223	80	227	9	13	40%	5%	4	-2.5
✕Chris Hudgins 2019 · A	23	39	44→50	49→40	35	197/244/320	123	291	11	3	35%	5%	52	-1.6	196/248/317	121	292	13	4	36%	5%	53	-1.5	168/223/285	117	260	14	2	40%	5%	31	-1.1
✕Will Banfield 2022 · A	22	31→35	40→50	48→30	34	163/215/254	91	259	8	4	39%	5%	22	-3.7	193/230/321	128	266	15	3	33%	4%	46	-2.0	194/236/296	102	269	12	0	32%	4%	39	-1.2
✕Jorge Saez 2014 · A	23	38	39→45	49→30	43	188/248/271	83	255	7	6	28%	7%	40	-2.4	194/261/290	96	280	8	3	31%	8%	51	-1.7	206/269/348	143	287	21	3	35%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	35	43→50	48→40	39	178/241/285	107	272	11	4	37%	7%	42	-2.3	203/260/325	122	275	13	4	30%	6%	60	-1.0	207/268/341	134	263	14	2	26%	6%	65	-0.3