Hunter Dobbins — OGILVIE

Hunter DobbinsC Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 204 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION288 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†47

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%40

BB%10

BABIP266

ISO114

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 46

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER46

scouting grade only

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	58	49	7	3	0	1	7	19	2	1	0	143	276	265	541	122	207	33	12	259	61	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	58	52	5	2	0	1	4	27	2	1	0	96	190	192	382	96	162	47	7	166	-1	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	58	52	5	2	0	1	4	27	2	1	0	96	190	192	382	96	167	47	7	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	—	58	49	7	3	0	1	7	19	2	1	0	143	276	265	541	122	207	33	12	259	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	58	52	5	2	0	1	4	27	2	1	0	96	190	192	382	96	162	47	7	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	58	52	5	2	0	1	4	27	2	1	0	96	190	192	382	96	162	47	7	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A MLE	DET	—	288	263	36	9	1	6	22	148	3	0	0	137	212	247	459	110	275	51	8	210	28	-25	+0	+0	+5	+6	-1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A RAW	DET	—	208	183	42	11	2	8	22	71	3	0	0	230	322	443	765	213	327	34	11	339	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ RAW	DET	—	80	72	11	2	0	1	8	35	0	0	0	153	237	222	460	69	278	44	10	218	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A MLE	DET	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		270	40	10	237	47	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	A MLE	DET	—	298	272	37	9	1	6	23	152	3	0	0	136	211	243	454	107	272	51	8	211	29	-25	+0	+0	+5	+6	-1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	DET	30%	271	245	43	9	1	6	21	105	3	2	1	176	249	294	543	118	275	39	8	249	55	-15	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	DET	44%	342	308	57	12	2	8	27	129	4	3	1	185	260	315	575	130	277	38	8	256	59	-16	+0	+0	+6	+7	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	DET	51%	388	350	64	13	2	9	31	143	4	3	1	183	257	309	566	126	277	37	8	260	62	-18	+0	+0	+7	+8	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	DET	52%	406	366	69	14	2	10	33	148	4	4	1	189	263	320	583	131	278	36	8	262	63	-18	+0	+0	+7	+9	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	DET	53%	416	375	69	14	2	10	34	152	4	4	1	184	259	312	571	128	277	37	8	261	63	-19	+0	-1	+7	+9	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	DET	30%	82	75	13	3	0	2	6	32	1	1	0	173	244	293	537	120	270	39	7	237	55	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	DET	44%	151	136	24	5	1	3	12	57	2	1	0	176	253	294	547	118	272	38	8	244	59	-7	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	DET	51%	197	177	33	7	1	5	16	73	2	2	0	186	262	322	584	136	273	37	8	248	62	-9	+0	+0	+4	+4	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	DET	52%	213	192	35	7	1	5	17	78	2	2	1	182	256	307	563	125	273	37	8	249	63	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	DET	53%	222	200	36	7	1	5	18	81	2	2	1	180	255	300	555	120	272	36	8	248	63	-10	+0	-0	+4	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	865	780	141	29	4	20	69	321	9	8	2	181	255	305	560	124	273	37	8	247	59	-40	+1	-0	+15	+19	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	106	22	3	15	52	241	7	6	2	181	256	305	561	125	273	37	8	247	59	-30	+1	-0	+12	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	1891	1705	308	64	9	44	151	708	21	17	5	181	256	306	562	126	274	37	8	255	59	-86	+1	-1	+33	+40	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	106	22	3	15	52	243	7	6	2	181	256	305	561	125	275	37	8	255	59	-30	+0	-0	+12	+14	-0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	4.5	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.2	10.8
/162	664	12	3	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.5	986	23	10	186	257	313	+18	+12	0.1	0.1
/162	664	16	6	+11.9	+8.1	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Hunter Dobbins (OGILVIE)	23	20→25	41→46	43→48	53	165/238/277	112	270	2	1	41%	8%	47	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	188/254/321	133	272	15	10	35%	6%	62	-1.4	207/272/348	141	302	15	9	35%	6%	75	-0.5	202/267/346	145	293	16	7	35%	6%	71	-0.3
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	35	43→45	49→40	39	180/241/289	109	274	11	4	37%	7%	49	-2.4	201/257/318	117	274	12	4	30%	6%	62	-1.4	208/275/351	144	265	17	1	28%	7%	74	-0.2
✕Tate Blackman 2018 · A	23	40→35	42→45	49→40	44	198/269/304	106	269	10	4	29%	7%	63	-1.3	179/252/275	96	301	10	4	41%	8%	51	-2.3	159/236/248	88	274	11	3	43%	8%	37	-2.3
✕Tyler Grimes 2013 · A	23	37	42→40	46→40	40	180/259/284	104	282	9	8	37%	8%	55	-1.9	203/277/297	94	309	7	5	34%	7%	65	-1.2	203/279/289	86	310	6	2	34%	7%	62	-0.8
✕Jacob Wetzel 2023 · A	23	39→34	44→45	49→50	45	195/276/305	110	270	12	10	31%	8%	67	-1.1	191/265/303	112	284	10	13	34%	8%	61	-1.5	178/252/295	117	273	8	16	35%	8%	53	-1.1
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	40	43→50	46→45	38	201/248/313	112	281	10	7	32%	5%	57	-1.8	196/259/294	98	295	9	10	34%	8%	57	-1.8	166/232/250	84	247	9	10	35%	8%	35	-0.9
✕Kevin Padlo 2019 · A	23	36→40	44→50	45→50	43	180/261/297	117	271	11	7	36%	9%	59	-1.6	201/279/356	155	288	17	9	34%	9%	80	-0.2	190/261/345	156	258	19	12	33%	8%	68	-0.7
✕Nick Quintana 2022 · A	24	33→40	43→45	47→45	45	171/253/277	106	242	11	6	33%	9%	52	-2.2	190/275/295	105	266	10	5	30%	9%	64	-1.3	176/269/273	97	244	10	3	30%	10%	54	-1.0
✕Brock Carpenter 2018 · A	23	37	41→40	48→30	42	183/257/279	96	281	10	6	36%	8%	53	-2.1	199/261/302	103	329	8	6	39%	7%	59	-1.6	183/243/303	120	312	8	3	41%	7%	49	-0.8
✕Joe Donovan 2023 · A	24	34	44→45	51→40	35	174/244/287	113	284	12	7	41%	6%	51	-2.3	196/253/305	109	312	10	5	38%	5%	57	-1.8	193/247/308	115	295	10	0	36%	4%	53	-0.8
✕Cody Puckett 2010 · A	23	39→40	46→50	51→50	38	199/250/328	129	280	15	11	34%	6%	61	-1.5	202/254/342	140	275	15	11	31%	5%	66	-1.1	193/247/331	138	257	15	11	30%	5%	60	-1.3
✕Caleb Hamilton 2018 · A	23	35	42→45	44→45	46	175/265/284	109	271	9	5	36%	10%	58	-1.7	184/252/283	99	266	8	7	31%	8%	52	-2.2	141/235/256	115	206	16	3	39%	10%	39	-1.0
✕Connor Kaiser 2021 · A	24	38	42→45	46→50	46	190/266/292	102	264	10	6	30%	9%	59	-1.6	192/262/308	116	277	12	11	33%	8%	61	-1.5	174/253/287	113	253	13	17	35%	9%	51	-0.9
✕Taylor Snyder 2018 · A	23	36→34	44→50	47→50	32	186/229/299	113	278	11	13	37%	4%	47	-2.6	195/241/315	120	305	12	12	38%	5%	55	-2.0	189/239/340	151	271	18	12	36%	5%	59	-1.1
✕Jackson Cluff 2021 · A	24	40→30	42→45	51→60	40	198/263/305	106	283	9	12	32%	6%	61	-1.5	183/253/275	92	279	7	13	35%	7%	51	-2.2	179/271/301	122	264	12	28	34%	10%	62	-0.8
✕Cody Morissette 2023 · A	23	37→30	46→45	45→55	41	194/258/316	122	265	14	5	32%	7%	62	-1.4	182/235/295	113	244	13	11	30%	6%	49	-2.4	182/237/299	117	239	14	19	29%	6%	48	-1.4
✕Jeff Arnold 2012 · A	24	37	43→50	49→40	37	186/241/294	108	271	11	5	34%	6%	51	-2.3	204/262/330	126	308	11	5	36%	6%	66	-1.1	195/252/323	128	296	11	3	36%	6%	58	-0.8
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	35	40→45	53→50	34	179/213/275	95	257	7	9	33%	4%	34	-3.5	216/264/299	83	296	5	9	27%	6%	59	-1.7	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	40→36	43→45	49→50	41	200/271/316	116	273	11	8	30%	6%	67	-1.1	208/282/338	130	278	13	10	29%	6%	76	-0.4	207/287/352	145	264	16	10	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	177/255/257	79	269	8	14	35%	9%	48	-2.5	207/287/299	92	295	7	12	29%	9%	69	-0.9	212/301/305	93	294	5	13	27%	10%	75	-0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps