Zack Showalter — OGILVIE

Zack Showalter P Peoria Chiefs

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.27

FIP5.27

K%23.2%

BB%17.2%

K-BB%5.9%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	8	31	133	42	15	1	80%	3.1	20.7%	14.0%	6.7%	1.4%	2.30	3.88	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	8	31	133	42	15	1	80%	3.1	31.6%	11.3%	20.3%	0.8%	2.30	2.27	—
2024	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	0	34	153	59	18	0	0%	1.4	28.5%	13.9%	14.7%	0.0%	2.62	2.45	—
2024	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	0	34	153	59	18	0	0%	1.4	28.5%	13.9%	14.7%	0.0%	2.62	2.45	—
2024	20	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	0	34	153	59	18	0	0%	1.4	38.6%	11.8%	26.8%	0.0%	2.62	1.24	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	1	31	139	32	33	0	5%	1.4	20.6%	28.1%	-7.5%	0.0%	3.48	4.92	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	1	31	139	32	33	0	5%	1.4	20.6%	28.1%	-7.5%	0.0%	3.48	4.92	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	1	31	139	32	33	0	5%	1.4	23.0%	23.7%	-0.7%	0.0%	3.48	4.23	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	8	0	9	49	10	7	4	0%	1.1	20.4%	14.3%	6.1%	8.2%	15.58	7.67	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	8	0	9	49	10	7	4	0%	1.1	20.4%	14.3%	6.1%	8.2%	15.58	7.67	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	8	0	9	49	10	7	4	0%	1.1	20.4%	14.3%	6.1%	8.2%	15.58	9.22	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	STL	12	0	13	55	13	9	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	17.2%	5.9%	2.9%	5.27	5.27	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	27	0	29	121	29	18	3	0%	1.1	23.7%	14.8%	9.0%	2.8%	5.01	4.90	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	11	0	12	51	12	7	1	0%	1.1	23.7%	14.8%	9.0%	2.8%	5.01	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	52	12	8	1	0%	1.0	23.7%	14.8%	9.0%	2.8%	5.01	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	130	16	0%	1.1	23.7%	14.8%	9.0%	2.8%	5.01	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		64	9	105	474	110	86	6	14%	1.6	23.2%	18.1%	5.1%	1.2%	3.84	4.11	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	17	200	900	208	163	11	14%	1.6	23.2%	18.1%	5.1%	1.2%	3.84	4.11	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zack Showalter (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.27	23.2%	17.2%	2.9%	—	4.90	23.7%	9.0%	29	-0.37	—	—	—
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	87
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	87
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	86
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	85
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	85
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	85
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	85
Isaac Gallegos R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	22.9%	17.8%	1.8%	.267	3.09	19.9%	10.5%	106	-1.31	2.89	125	84
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	84
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	83
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	83
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	83
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	83
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	83
Carlos Contreras R 2014 · 4.77 FIP	23	SU	4.77	20.2%	18.1%	2.0%	.304	4.35	18.4%	5.0%	107	-0.42	4.29	127	83
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	83
Samuel Carpio R 2024 · 4.20 FIP	21	SU	4.20	21.2%	15.3%	1.7%	.300	5.36	21.6%	-3.4%	112	+1.16	4.20	134	82
Saul Teran R 2024 · 5.21 FIP	22	SU	5.21	22.4%	18.8%	2.9%	.279	4.40	20.1%	10.7%	84	-0.81	2.28	166	82
Luis Ramirez R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.71	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.97	3.71	104	82