Ethan Petry — OGILVIE

Ethan PetryOF Harrisburg Senators

Age 22 R/R 6'4" / 235 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION470 act + 8 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .125 / .125

PA8

HR0

K%38

BB%6

BABIP284

ISO157

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$9M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 38 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT38

scouting grade only

POWER60

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED30

scouting grade only

DEFENSE40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	101	87	25	3	1	2	13	25	1	1	0	287	386	414	800	126	383	25	13	363	132	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2025	21	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	75	57	13	1	0	1	13	21	4	2	0	228	405	298	704	70	333	28	17	338	115	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	101	92	21	2	1	2	8	37	1	1	0	228	297	337	634	109	352	37	8	270	69	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	176	156	36	4	1	3	14	64	5	3	0	231	314	327	641	96	367	36	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	176	144	38	4	1	3	26	46	5	3	0	264	394	368	762	104	365	26	15	352	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	176	155	36	4	1	3	14	64	5	3	0	232	314	329	643	97	352	36	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	176	155	36	4	1	3	14	64	5	3	0	232	314	329	643	97	352	36	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	WSH	—	470	433	86	18	0	18	27	181	8	6	1	199	259	365	623	166	288	39	6	269	68	-18	+1	+0	-3	+10	-1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ RAW	WSH	—	194	165	49	10	0	9	22	47	5	4	1	297	396	521	917	224	360	24	11	401	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	AA RAW	WSH	—	276	254	58	14	0	15	19	97	3	2	0	228	290	461	750	232	303	35	7	329	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	AA MLE	WSH	2%	8	8	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	125	125	125	250		285	38	0	280	76	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	22	AA MLE	WSH	—	478	441	87	18	0	18	27	184	8	6	1	197	256	361	617	163	286	38	6	269	68	-18	+1	-0	-3	+10	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	WSH	35%	341	313	67	13	1	13	21	114	4	3	1	214	272	387	659	173	286	33	6	291	83	-7	+0	-2	-2	+7	-0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	WSH	47%	413	378	82	16	1	16	27	134	5	4	1	217	278	392	670	175	288	32	7	299	89	-6	+0	-2	-2	+9	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	WSH	52%	541	493	109	21	1	22	36	172	7	5	1	221	284	402	685	181	288	32	7	304	92	-5	+1	-3	-3	+12	0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	540	491	109	21	1	22	37	170	7	4	1	222	286	403	689	181	288	31	7	306	93	-4	+0	-3	-3	+12	0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	536	487	108	21	1	22	37	170	7	4	1	222	286	405	691	183	288	32	7	306	93	-4	+0	-3	-3	+12	0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	529	481	107	21	1	22	37	168	6	4	1	222	286	407	694	185	287	32	7	305	93	-5	+0	-4	-3	+11	0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	521	473	104	20	1	21	37	167	6	4	1	220	285	400	684	180	286	32	7	303	92	-5	+0	-4	-3	+11	-0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	WSH	52%	512	465	100	19	1	20	36	165	6	4	1	215	280	389	669	174	285	32	7	301	90	-6	+0	-5	-3	+11	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	WSH	35%	120	110	24	5	0	5	8	40	1	1	0	218	277	400	677	182	285	33	7	281	83	-2	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	WSH	47%	192	175	38	7	0	8	13	62	2	2	0	217	279	394	673	177	287	32	7	289	89	-3	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	WSH	52%	280	256	57	11	1	11	19	89	3	2	0	223	284	402	687	180	287	32	7	294	92	-3	+0	-2	-2	+6	0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	293	267	59	11	1	12	20	92	4	2	0	221	285	404	690	184	287	31	7	297	93	-2	+0	-2	-2	+6	0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	291	265	59	11	1	12	20	92	4	2	0	223	287	408	695	185	287	32	7	297	93	-2	+0	-2	-2	+6	0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	287	261	58	11	1	12	20	91	4	2	0	222	288	410	698	188	287	32	7	296	93	-2	+0	-2	-2	+6	0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	277	252	56	11	1	11	20	89	3	2	0	222	287	405	692	183	286	32	7	294	92	-3	+0	-2	-2	+6	-0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	WSH	52%	268	244	53	10	0	11	19	86	3	2	0	217	282	393	675	176	284	32	7	291	90	-3	+0	-3	-2	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2008	1830	404	77	5	82	139	641	24	15	0	221	284	403	687	182	289	32	7	293	90	-21	+3	-13	-12	+44	0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	132	25	2	27	45	207	8	5	0	223	287	409	696	186	291	32	7	293	90	-7	+1	-4	-4	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4117	3745	823	156	9	161	282	1327	53	35	8	220	284	395	679	175	290	32	7	301	90	-43	+3	-26	-24	+85	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	129	25	1	25	45	210	8	6	1	218	283	391	673	173	289	32	7	301	90	-7	+1	-4	-4	+14	-0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Pedro Álvarezlast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,287 PA	5.0	3,287	161	15	235	309	447	+1	-40	10.0	10.2
/162	664	33	3	+0.2	-8.0	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Craig Monroelast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,898 PA	4.4	2,898	114	19	253	302	443	-28	-32	3.8	4.3
/162	664	26	4	-6.5	-7.4	0.9	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	3.0	2,013	82	16	222	282	404	-12	-16	2.4	2.4
/162	664	27	5	-4.0	-5.3	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Dayan Viciedolast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,798 PA	2.7	1,798	66	2	254	298	424	-18	-29	0.3	0.3
/162	664	24	1	-6.6	-10.7	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	3.5	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
/162	664	21	5	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Petry (OGILVIE)	22	30→38	50→60	30	45	204/263/364	160	285	7	2	35%	6%	76	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matt Davidson 2013 · AA	22	42→44	48→60	38→30	43	215/283/359	144	283	16	2	29%	7%	81	-0.1	191/257/315	124	275	14	2	34%	7%	61	-1.5	216/288/412	197	287	27	0	34%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Tommy Joseph 2013 · AA	22	43→47	46→60	36→30	39	218/262/346	128	276	15	2	27%	5%	70	-0.9	210/255/326	116	264	13	3	25%	4%	63	-1.4	240/291/436	196	274	27	1	23%	6%	100	+1.0
✕Drew Ellis 2019 · A	23	40→37	47→55	37→40	45	205/268/342	138	254	15	4	26%	7%	72	-0.7	205/283/350	145	268	16	3	28%	9%	80	-0.2	183/280/352	170	235	19	4	30%	10%	78	-0.2
✕Brian Dopirak 2006 · A	22	40→50	45→55	37→30	39	204/247/325	120	261	13	3	28%	5%	59	-1.6	223/267/355	132	296	15	3	29%	5%	74	-0.6	248/291/422	175	316	22	1	28%	5%	96	+0.9
●Jonathan Rodríguez 2012 · A	22	41→51	50	41→50	48	213/299/367	153	274	17	5	28%	9%	89	+0.5	219/288/361	142	301	15	8	31%	8%	84	+0.1	227/303/369	142	310	17	3	30%	9%	90	+0.4
✕Allan Cerda 2022 · A	22	40→23	53→50	39→45	40	204/284/384	180	304	20	5	38%	8%	88	+0.4	173/275/329	156	276	19	7	41%	10%	73	-0.6	142/256/290	148	220	20	7	42%	11%	54	-1.0
✕Jamie Romak 2008 · A	22	39→49	52→55	41→45	44	204/288/372	168	289	20	4	35%	9%	87	+0.4	200/264/347	147	282	17	3	34%	7%	72	-0.7	207/263/389	182	276	22	5	33%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Eric Haase 2015 · A	22	38→42	48→60	42→40	37	197/247/340	144	288	16	3	37%	6%	63	-1.3	192/249/351	159	292	17	4	39%	6%	67	-1.1	217/276/424	207	286	30	2	35%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Anthony García 2015 · A	23	37→47	49→55	42→45	41	196/260/343	147	251	16	5	29%	6%	69	-0.9	217/283/346	129	265	13	7	23%	7%	78	-0.3	219/290/359	140	265	17	4	24%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Clint Coulter 2015 · A	22	42→43	48→50	42→40	45	216/296/360	144	279	16	5	28%	8%	86	+0.3	209/274/331	122	267	12	4	26%	6%	72	-0.7	201/269/342	141	247	16	4	25%	5%	69	-0.3
✕Chris Marrero 2010 · AA	22	45→52	49→50	38→30	40	230/281/373	143	297	17	2	28%	6%	84	+0.1	244/291/358	114	308	12	3	24%	6%	83	+0.1	247/295/352	105	307	11	1	22%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Steffan Wilson 2008 · A	22	45→47	51→50	40→45	38	228/277/386	158	324	19	3	35%	6%	85	+0.2	227/279/360	133	303	14	6	29%	6%	79	-0.2	220/275/347	126	292	14	6	29%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Christopher Vinyard 2009 · A	23	41→42	46→45	36→30	42	212/267/336	124	277	15	2	29%	6%	70	-0.9	209/265/327	118	283	13	5	30%	7%	67	-1.1	163/219/268	105	210	14	0	30%	7%	34	-0.8
✕Dustin Geiger 2014 · A	22	44→47	47→50	40	41	223/277/358	136	286	15	4	28%	6%	79	-0.2	207/266/323	116	281	12	5	29%	7%	66	-1.1	176/240/288	112	251	12	2	34%	7%	46	-1.4
✕Brett Carroll 2006 · A	23	37→45	49→55	41→50	32	199/239/344	145	264	17	8	32%	3%	61	-1.5	210/262/367	157	267	18	7	28%	5%	76	-0.4	220/274/392	172	270	20	1	26%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Matthew Whitney 2008 · A	24	41→49	51→50	39→30	39	213/265/365	152	292	20	2	34%	6%	76	-0.4	230/292/361	131	293	13	3	25%	7%	84	+0.2	234/302/349	114	293	10	1	22%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Johan Mieses 2018 · AA	23	31→33	52→55	39→50	33	180/230/340	160	262	20	3	40%	5%	57	-1.8	191/243/335	144	250	19	5	32%	5%	61	-1.5	191/265/355	164	235	23	7	30%	7%	72	-0.4
✕Johermyn Chavez 2012 · AA	23	42→47	48→50	40→45	40	214/272/353	139	282	16	6	30%	6%	76	-0.4	209/275/326	117	280	13	5	29%	7%	71	-0.8	204/276/322	119	268	15	2	28%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Robbie Tenerowicz 2017 · A	22	44→52	43→50	37→45	38	216/264/328	112	295	10	4	30%	5%	66	-1.1	227/279/334	107	291	10	6	24%	6%	74	-0.6	233/321/379	147	288	17	2	24%	7%	99	+0.8
✕Victor Ferrante 2008 · A	23	44→42	49→55	41→45	38	219/283/372	154	324	17	6	36%	6%	84	+0.2	217/276/342	125	307	13	8	32%	6%	74	-0.5	208/267/322	114	287	12	7	30%	6%	65	-1.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps