Ethan Petry

OF Harrisburg Senators

Age 23 R/R 6'4" / 235 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	A/INTL2 orgs	176	.264/.394/.368	3	3	91	—	.220/.297/.297
2026	22	AA/A+WSH	470	.255/.333/.484	24	6	73	—	.206/.265/.382
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBWSH	4	.207/.264/.378	0	0	78	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	24	MLBWSH	117	.212/.269/.388	5	1	82	-0.1
2029PROJ45% MLB	25	MLBWSH	183	.215/.273/.394	7	2	85	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$3M2033Arb-2$0.4M2034Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

ISO85

wRC+51

wOBA44

BB%17

Z-Con%16

Whiff%14

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.2, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 86%

CompsJhonkensy Noel (age 23) · Jamie Romak (age 23) · Johan Mieses (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .264 / .378

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%6

BABIP283

ISO176

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$13M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	101	87	25	3	1	2	13	25	1	1	0	287	386	414	800	126	383	25	13	363	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	75	57	13	1	0	1	13	21	4	2	0	228	405	298	704	70	333	28	17	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	276	254	58	14	0	15	19	97	3	2	0	228	290	461	750	232	303	35	7	329	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	194	165	49	10	0	9	22	47	5	4	1	297	396	521	917	224	360	24	11	401	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	101	91	20	2	1	1	9	35	1	1	0	220	297	297	594	77	351	35	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	276	259	48	11	0	11	14	118	3	2	0	185	236	355	591	170	280	43	5	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	194	174	41	8	0	8	13	61	5	4	1	236	307	420	727	184	299	31	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	176	154	35	4	1	2	16	61	5	3	0	227	320	305	625	78	359	35	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	176	144	38	4	1	3	26	46	5	3	0	264	394	368	762	104	365	26	15	352	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	470	433	88	18	0	19	27	180	8	6	1	203	263	376	639	173	292	38	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	470	419	107	24	0	24	41	144	8	6	1	255	333	484	818	229	328	31	9	359	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	176	153	35	4	1	2	16	61	5	3	0	229	320	307	627	78	351	35	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	470	432	88	18	0	19	27	180	8	6	1	204	263	377	640	174	288	38	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	176	153	35	4	1	2	16	61	5	3	0	229	320	307	627	78	351	35	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	470	432	88	18	0	19	27	180	8	6	1	204	263	377	640	174	288	38	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	WSH	2%	505	465	96	18	2	19	29	178	6	6	1	207	264	378	642	171	283	35	6	284	78	-13	+1	-3	-3	+11	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	WSH	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	207	264	378	641	170	283	25	0	283	78	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	WSH	31%	377	346	73	14	1	15	23	129	5	4	1	212	269	388	658	176	285	34	6	290	82	-8	+0	-2	-2	+8	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	WSH	45%	411	378	81	15	1	17	25	138	5	4	1	215	273	394	668	180	285	34	6	294	85	-7	+0	-1	-2	+9	-0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	WSH	51%	431	396	85	16	1	17	27	143	5	4	1	217	276	397	673	181	286	33	6	297	87	-7	+0	-2	-3	+9	-0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	437	401	86	16	1	17	28	143	5	3	1	217	277	395	672	178	285	33	6	297	87	-7	+0	-2	-3	+9	-0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	435	398	86	16	1	17	29	141	5	2	1	217	277	391	669	175	285	32	7	295	86	-7	+0	-2	-3	+9	-0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	425	389	83	16	1	16	28	139	5	2	1	214	275	385	659	171	283	33	7	292	84	-8	+0	-3	-3	+9	-0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	WSH	52%	412	378	80	15	1	15	27	136	4	1	2	211	271	377	648	166	281	33	7	287	80	-10	-1	-4	-2	+9	-0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	WSH	31%	117	108	22	4	0	5	7	40	1	1	0	212	269	388	657	176	285	34	6	290	82	-2	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	WSH	45%	183	168	35	7	0	7	11	62	2	2	0	215	273	394	667	179	285	34	6	294	85	-3	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	WSH	51%	219	200	44	8	1	9	14	72	3	2	0	217	276	397	673	180	286	33	6	297	87	-3	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	229	209	46	9	1	9	15	75	3	2	0	217	277	395	672	178	285	33	7	297	87	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	232	212	47	9	1	9	15	75	3	1	0	217	278	391	668	174	285	32	6	295	86	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	223	204	43	8	1	8	15	73	2	1	1	214	275	385	659	170	283	33	7	292	84	-4	-0	-2	-1	+5	-0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	WSH	52%	215	197	41	8	0	8	14	71	2	1	1	211	271	377	648	166	281	33	7	287	80	-5	-0	-2	-1	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1418	1298	278	53	4	55	91	468	16	10	2	214	274	388	662	174	285	33	6	293	82	-26	+1	-7	-9	+31	-1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	127	24	2	25	42	215	7	5	1	213	273	387	660	173	285	33	6	293	82	-12	+1	-3	-4	+14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3784	3466	738	138	9	143	242	1284	50	31	10	213	274	382	656	169	289	34	6	290	82	-59	+1	-16	-19	+68	-2.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	128	24	2	25	42	221	9	5	2	215	277	388	665	173	293	34	6	290	82	-12	+0	-3	-4	+14	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 276 PAwOBA .320 → .252 (−68)K% 35.1% → 42.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.14%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	42.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.88%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.042	5.02%
HBP% /PA	1.09%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.96%
Singles /BIP	18.47%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.968	×1.042	18.08%
Doubles /BIP	8.92%	÷1.000	×0.860	×0.968	×1.042	7.74%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.950	×0.968	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.55%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.042	7.77%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .320 → .252; ISO .232 → .172; BABIP .303 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 194 PAwOBA .393 → .309 (−83)K% 24.2% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.23%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	31.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.82%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×1.012	6.57%
HBP% /PA	2.58%	—	×0.770	—	×1.012	2.01%
Singles /BIP	25.42%	÷1.000	×0.870	×0.977	×1.012	21.87%
Doubles /BIP	8.47%	÷1.000	×0.780	×0.977	×1.012	6.54%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.977	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.63%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.012	6.79%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .393 → .309; ISO .224 → .189; BABIP .360 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 101 PAwOBA .354 → .277 (−77)K% 24.8% → 34.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.75%	÷0.968	×1.360	—	—	34.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.87%	÷0.987	×0.690	—	×1.015	9.13%
HBP% /PA	0.99%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.78%
Singles /BIP	30.65%	÷1.046	×0.920	×1.050	×1.015	28.74%
Doubles /BIP	4.84%	÷1.050	×0.830	×1.050	×1.015	4.08%
Triples /BIP	1.61%	÷1.106	×0.910	×1.050	×1.015	1.41%
Home runs /BIP	3.23%	÷1.040	×0.800	—	×1.015	2.52%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 109, 2B 110, 3B 121, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .354 → .277; ISO .126 → .093; BABIP .383 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Hunter Renfroelast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,727 PA	5.6	3,727	188	15	235	297	458	-40	-32	7.3	8.0
/162	664	33	3	-7.1	-5.7	1.3	pk7: 9
#2Cory Snyder'86-'94 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,933 PA	5.9	3,933	149	28	243*	290*	445*	-35	-18	4.7	5.7
/162	664	25	5	-5.9	-3.0	0.8	pk7: 7
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Eric Anthony'89-'97 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,243 PA	3.4	2,243	78	24	225*	300*	410*	-22	-22	0.1	0.6
/162	664	23	7	-6.7	-6.6	0.0	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.1	1,423	56	9	216	272	391	-9	-12	0.4	0.5
/162	664	26	4	-4.0	-5.6	0.2	pk7: 1
#5Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
#6Seth Brownlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,799 PA	2.7	1,799	74	24	227	293	421	-23	-34	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	27	9	-8.6	-12.4	-0.3	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Petry (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	206/261/375	169	283	8	2	35%	6%	78	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jhonkensy Noel 2024 · AAA	23	37→42	52→55	41→45	40	203/265/366	163	260	22	3	31%	6%	76	-0.4	209/265/378	169	271	22	3	31%	6%	80	-0.2	201/256/375	174	256	24	1	32%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Jamie Romak 2009 · AA	23	39→48	54→55	39→45	41	206/280/385	179	292	22	2	36%	8%	86	+0.3	202/262/336	134	270	15	4	30%	6%	68	-1.0	202/257/379	177	268	21	5	33%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Johan Mieses 2018 · AA	23	32→33	52→55	39→50	33	183/234/348	165	267	21	3	40%	5%	61	-1.5	193/246/340	147	252	20	5	32%	5%	63	-1.3	192/268/358	166	237	23	7	30%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Johermyn Chavez 2012 · AA	23	43→49	49→50	40→45	40	219/278/363	144	289	17	6	30%	6%	80	-0.1	211/277/332	121	283	13	5	29%	7%	73	-0.6	204/277/326	121	268	15	2	28%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Allan Cerda 2023 · AA	23	34→25	53→55	42→45	45	182/282/353	171	274	21	6	39%	10%	81	-0.1	177/271/325	148	288	18	8	41%	10%	70	-0.8	139/245/280	141	220	18	8	43%	10%	48	-0.8
✕Jonathan Rodríguez 2013 · A	23	41→50	49→50	40→50	43	207/282/355	147	291	16	5	33%	8%	80	-0.1	224/289/353	129	300	13	10	28%	8%	82	-0.0	222/296/363	141	301	17	3	30%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Wes Clarke 2023 · AA	23	37→39	49→50	41→40	51	190/290/334	144	263	17	3	32%	11%	79	-0.2	200/298/361	161	298	20	5	36%	11%	88	+0.4	191/296/352	161	276	21	4	36%	12%	83	+0.1
✕Marcos Castañon 2023 · A	24	38→48	51→50	38→40	46	201/294/355	155	278	19	2	33%	10%	86	+0.3	220/281/359	139	288	16	3	28%	7%	80	-0.1	222/277/356	134	285	15	2	27%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Drew Ellis 2019 · A	23	40→38	47→55	37→40	45	204/267/342	138	254	15	4	26%	7%	72	-0.7	206/284/354	148	268	16	3	28%	9%	81	-0.1	186/283/356	170	238	19	4	29%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Matthew Whitney 2008 · A	24	41→50	51→50	39→30	39	213/265/365	151	292	20	2	34%	6%	76	-0.4	234/295/364	130	299	14	3	25%	7%	86	+0.3	241/309/356	115	301	10	1	22%	8%	87	+0.3
✕Brian Ragira 2015 · A	23	44→42	51→55	42→30	37	228/272/381	153	308	20	4	32%	5%	82	+0.0	217/268/337	120	312	13	4	33%	6%	70	-0.8	203/256/307	104	296	11	0	34%	5%	55	-1.4
✕Neftali Soto 2012 · AAA	23	43→53	54→55	41→40	37	232/271/409	177	282	23	2	27%	4%	88	+0.5	234/274/369	135	298	15	3	26%	4%	80	-0.2	250/292/370	120	308	12	1	22%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Chris Gittens 2017 · A	23	42→46	53→50	44→30	41	215/284/380	165	306	21	4	36%	8%	87	+0.4	210/287/359	149	321	19	3	38%	9%	83	+0.1	210/303/362	152	305	21	0	35%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Bobby Dalbec 2020 · AAA	25	36→42	54→60	41→50	41	195/275/366	171	281	23	5	38%	8%	81	-0.1	223/293/432	209	301	28	5	35%	8%	103	+1.5	212/285/410	198	297	28	9	37%	8%	94	+0.7
✕Anthony García 2015 · A	23	38→48	49→55	42→45	41	199/264/349	150	255	16	5	29%	6%	72	-0.7	218/287/350	132	265	14	7	23%	7%	80	-0.1	219/291/361	142	265	17	4	24%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Victor Bericoto 2024 · AA	22	44→49	50	41→40	42	226/280/376	150	296	19	3	30%	7%	84	+0.1	235/281/359	124	312	14	4	28%	6%	80	-0.2	240/285/353	113	317	13	3	27%	5%	77	-0.3
✕Christopher Cook 2006 · A	23	39	53→55	41→45	36	206/259/369	163	298	22	3	38%	6%	75	-0.5	201/262/308	107	318	11	6	38%	6%	61	-1.5	194/256/287	92	310	10	8	38%	7%	50	-1.2
✕Jabari Henry 2015 · A	24	42→41	52→55	41→45	49	217/297/388	171	275	20	6	28%	9%	93	+0.8	188/261/333	145	260	17	6	33%	8%	68	-1.0	153/227/285	132	210	17	5	35%	8%	41	-1.8
✕Victor Ferrante 2008 · A	23	44→42	49→55	41→45	37	217/281/370	153	322	17	6	36%	6%	83	+0.1	215/274/339	124	304	13	8	32%	6%	73	-0.6	206/265/319	113	284	12	7	30%	6%	63	-1.1
✕Brett Carroll 2006 · A	23	37→46	49→55	41→50	32	197/237/341	144	262	17	8	32%	3%	60	-1.6	212/263/371	159	270	18	7	28%	5%	77	-0.3	223/276/398	176	274	20	1	26%	5%	85	+0.1

Ethan Petry

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps