Ethan Petry — OGILVIE

Ethan PetryOF Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 22 R/R 6'4" / 235 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION288 act + 192 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .284 / .370

PA192

HR6

K%31

BB%7

BABIP287

ISO156

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 38 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT38

scouting grade only

POWER60

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED30

scouting grade only

DEFENSE40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	2 teams	—	176	155	34	4	1	3	15	66	5	3	0	219	309	316	625	97	356	38	9	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	2 teams	—	176	144	38	4	1	3	26	46	5	3	0	264	394	368	762	104	365	26	15	352	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	WSH	—	288	259	53	10	0	11	21	102	6	5	1	205	280	371	650	166	284	35	7	282	74	-8	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
YTD	22	A+	WSH	—	288	248	64	13	0	14	32	77	6	5	1	258	357	480	836	222	314	27	11	368	140	+13	+1	+0	-2	+8	2.0
ROS	22	A+	WSH	0%	192	173	37	7	1	6	14	60	3	3	1	214	284	370	654	156	281	31	7	292	82	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	WSH	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						281	0	0	281	73	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	A+	WSH	—	289	260	53	10	0	11	21	102	6	5	1	204	279	369	648	165	282	35	7	282	74	-9	+1	-0	-2	+8	-0.2
TOT	22	A+	WSH	—	480	432	90	17	1	17	35	162	9	8	2	208	282	370	652	162	285	34	7	286	77	-12	+1	-1	-3	+14	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	WSH	35%	341	309	67	12	1	12	25	102	4	4	1	217	284	379	663	162	282	30	7	300	88	-5	+0	-2	-2	+10	0.1
2028	24	MLB	WSH	46%	510	459	104	19	2	19	39	149	7	5	1	227	297	401	698	174	284	29	8	306	92	-4	+1	-3	-3	+14	0.5
2029	25	MLB	WSH	52%	515	463	106	19	2	20	40	148	7	4	1	229	300	408	708	179	285	29	8	310	95	-3	+0	-3	-3	+15	0.6
2030	26	MLB	WSH	54%	514	462	106	19	2	20	40	147	7	4	1	229	301	409	710	180	285	29	8	312	97	-2	+0	-3	-3	+15	0.7
2031	27	MLB	WSH	54%	510	458	105	19	2	20	40	147	7	4	1	229	301	410	711	181	285	29	8	312	97	-2	+0	-3	-3	+14	0.7
2032	28	MLB	WSH	54%	503	451	102	18	2	19	40	145	7	4	1	226	299	401	701	175	284	29	8	311	96	-2	+0	-3	-3	+14	0.6
2027	23	MLB	WSH	35%	118	106	23	4	0	4	9	35	2	1	0	217	291	368	659	151	282	30	8	290	80	-3	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.0
2028	24	MLB	WSH	46%	236	213	48	9	1	9	18	69	3	2	1	225	295	404	699	178	284	29	8	296	85	-4	+0	-1	-1	+7	-0.0
2029	25	MLB	WSH	52%	266	241	54	10	1	10	20	77	3	2	1	224	292	398	690	174	285	29	8	300	88	-4	+0	-1	-2	+8	0.1
2030	26	MLB	WSH	54%	279	251	57	10	1	11	22	80	4	2	1	227	300	406	706	179	285	29	8	302	90	-3	+0	-2	-2	+8	0.1
2031	27	MLB	WSH	54%	277	249	57	10	1	11	22	80	4	2	1	229	302	410	711	181	285	29	8	303	90	-3	+0	-2	-2	+8	0.1
2032	28	MLB	WSH	54%	273	245	56	10	1	11	22	79	4	2	0	229	303	412	715	184	284	29	8	302	89	-3	+0	-2	-2	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1450	1306	295	53	5	56	113	420	20	11	4	226	297	403	700	177	286	29	8	300	88	-20	+1	-8	-9	+41	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	132	24	2	25	51	188	9	5	2	226	298	402	699	176	285	29	8	300	88	-9	+0	-4	-4	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	3261	2930	661	117	13	119	253	964	47	31	7	226	298	396	694	171	290	30	8	305	92	-30	+3	-18	-20	+92	2.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	132	23	3	24	50	192	9	6	1	226	297	399	696	173	290	30	8	305	92	-6	+1	-4	-4	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	101	87	25	3	1	2	13	25	1	1	0	287	386	414	800	126	383	25	13	363	136	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.7
2025	21	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	75	57	13	1	0	1	13	21	4	2	0	228	405	298	704	70	333	28	17	338	117	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Pedro Álvarezlast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,287 PA	8	3,287	161	15	235	309	447	+1	-40	10.0	10.2
	/162	664	33	3	235	309	447	+0.2	-8.0	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Franmil Reyeslast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,078 PA	6	2,078	108	6	249	310	464	-22	-18	5.5	5.5
	/162	664	35	2	249	310	464	-7.1	-5.7	1.8	pk7: 6
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#5Eric Karroslast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,197 PA	5	2,197	73	13	255	317	418	-19	-17	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	22	4	255	317	418	-5.7	-5.2	1.2	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,449	55	12	227	294	404	-9	-12	2.5	2.5
	/162	664	25	6	227	294	404	-4.0	-5.5	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	6	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	21	5	238	305	421	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ethan Petry (OGILVIE)	22	30→38	50→60	30	45	208/282/370	162	285	17	8	34%	7%	77	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Drew Ellis 2019 · A	23	40→37	47→55	37→40	46	206/268/342	136	253	15	4	25%	7%	68	-0.5	206/284/361	155	265	18	3	28%	9%	80	+0.4	187/284/370	183	237	21	4	30%	10%	81	+0.3
●Matt Davidson 2013 · AA	22	41→44	48→60	38→30	43	211/281/355	143	279	16	2	30%	7%	77	+0.1	190/257/311	121	277	14	2	35%	7%	56	-1.3	221/293/427	206	292	29	0	34%	7%	99	+1.3
●Jonathan Rodríguez 2012 · A	22	41→50	50→55	41→50	48	212/293/368	156	263	18	5	26%	8%	85	+0.7	218/285/366	148	299	16	8	31%	7%	81	+0.4	229/307/382	153	312	19	3	31%	9%	93	+1.0
●Tommy Joseph 2013 · AA	22	43→47	46→60	36→30	39	218/263/346	128	281	15	2	28%	5%	66	-0.6	210/256/330	120	267	14	3	26%	5%	59	-1.1	243/294/446	203	274	28	1	23%	6%	105	+1.6
✕Allan Cerda 2022 · A	22	40→22	54→55	39→45	40	207/287/395	188	302	21	5	37%	8%	90	+1.0	172/274/332	160	276	20	7	42%	10%	69	-0.4	139/253/290	151	217	21	7	44%	11%	48	-0.9
✕Jamie Romak 2008 · A	22	39→48	52→55	41→45	44	204/288/372	168	289	20	4	35%	9%	85	+0.7	200/263/349	149	284	18	3	35%	6%	68	-0.5	216/274/355	139	264	17	5	25%	6%	71	-0.2
✕Chris Marrero 2010 · AA	22	45→52	49→55	38→30	40	230/281/373	143	297	17	2	28%	6%	82	+0.5	244/291/368	124	309	13	3	24%	6%	83	+0.6	239/279/399	160	282	19	0	22%	5%	85	+0.4
✕Clint Coulter 2015 · A	22	42	48→50	42→40	45	213/291/355	142	276	16	5	28%	8%	82	+0.5	209/273/335	126	268	12	4	26%	6%	69	-0.4	202/269/353	151	245	18	4	25%	5%	68	-0.1
●Michael Wing 2012 · A	23	49→50	47→55	35→40	41	244/290/381	137	307	15	4	25%	5%	87	+0.8	216/256/337	121	284	11	5	27%	4%	61	-1.0	227/268/390	163	293	18	4	28%	4%	80	+0.2
✕Anthony García 2015 · A	23	37→47	51→55	42→45	41	200/263/365	165	252	19	5	29%	6%	72	-0.2	218/284/352	134	268	14	7	24%	7%	77	+0.1	221/293/362	141	269	17	4	24%	7%	82	+0.3
●Eric Haase 2015 · A	22	37→44	48→65	42→40	37	194/247/339	144	286	16	3	37%	6%	58	-1.2	192/249/357	165	293	19	4	39%	6%	64	-0.8	226/282/450	225	294	33	2	35%	7%	100	+1.1
✕Travis Denker 2007 · A	21	44→51	48→50	37→45	54	224/307/363	140	262	17	3	22%	10%	90	+1.0	226/294/350	124	277	12	5	22%	8%	81	+0.4	227/302/380	153	255	18	0	19%	8%	92	+0.6
●Josmil Pinto 2011 · A	22	41→51	48→55	41→40	42	214/260/353	139	256	15	3	24%	5%	67	-0.5	230/280/375	145	283	16	2	24%	6%	82	+0.5	251/317/419	167	299	19	0	22%	8%	105	+1.7
✕Brock Peterson 2007 · A	23	47→50	49→55	41→40	42	236/294/383	148	303	17	4	28%	6%	89	+1.0	240/298/390	150	312	16	3	27%	6%	93	+1.3	240/299/391	150	313	16	1	27%	6%	90	+0.8
●Andrés Chaparro 2022 · A	23	43→49	48→60	43→40	47	217/299/360	143	289	15	5	29%	9%	85	+0.7	229/293/410	181	279	23	5	26%	7%	96	+1.5	231/292/422	191	271	25	4	25%	7%	96	+1.2
✕Christopher Vinyard 2009 · A	23	41→42	46→45	36→30	42	212/267/336	124	277	15	2	29%	6%	66	-0.6	209/265/327	118	283	13	5	30%	7%	63	-0.9	163/219/268	105	210	14	0	30%	7%	26	-0.8
●Ryan Strieby 2009 · A	23	42→45	54→60	43→40	46	223/287/401	179	268	22	3	26%	8%	92	+1.2	229/301/403	174	304	22	4	31%	8%	98	+1.6	223/299/386	164	308	21	3	33%	9%	89	+0.7
✕Wes Clarke 2023 · AA	23	35→40	50→55	41→40	51	184/288/333	149	262	18	3	35%	12%	76	+0.0	198/298/367	169	310	21	5	39%	11%	88	+0.9	193/298/365	172	291	22	4	38%	12%	86	+0.6
✕Steffan Wilson 2008 · A	22	45→47	51→50	40→45	38	228/277/386	158	324	19	3	35%	6%	83	+0.6	227/279/360	133	303	15	6	29%	6%	76	+0.1	221/275/348	127	293	14	6	29%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Jabari Henry 2015 · A	24	41→40	50→55	41→45	48	212/294/371	159	279	18	6	30%	10%	87	+0.8	189/265/341	152	271	19	6	35%	8%	67	-0.5	157/235/305	148	220	20	5	37%	8%	42	-1.4