Dennis Colleran Jr.

Dennis Colleran Jr. P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%21.5%

BB%15.5%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL—45

CMD3035

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	66	266	72	34	4	0%	1.5	20.6%	14.6%	6.0%	1.9%	2.85	4.26	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	66	266	72	34	4	0%	1.5	20.6%	14.6%	6.0%	1.9%	2.85	4.26	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	66	266	72	34	4	0%	1.5	27.1%	12.8%	14.3%	1.5%	2.85	3.25	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	46	0	52	257	51	46	10	0%	1.1	16.1%	19.7%	-3.6%	4.7%	7.32	6.80	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	46	0	52	257	51	46	10	0%	1.1	16.1%	19.7%	-3.6%	4.7%	7.32	6.80	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	KC	46	0	52	257	51	46	10	0%	1.1	19.8%	17.9%	1.9%	3.9%	7.32	5.83	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	KC	59	0	62	261	59	36	7	0%	1.0	22.4%	13.8%	8.6%	2.8%	4.98	4.89	-0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	60	0	63	268	62	34	8	0%	1.1	23.1%	12.8%	10.3%	2.8%	4.79	4.69	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	KC	30	0	31	131	29	18	4	0%	1.0	22.4%	13.8%	8.6%	2.8%	4.98	4.89	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	43	0	45	190	44	24	5	0%	1.0	23.1%	12.8%	10.3%	2.8%	4.79	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	0	76	319	73	42	9	0%	1.1	22.8%	13.2%	9.6%	2.8%	4.87	4.39	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	111	24	0%	1.1	22.8%	13.2%	9.6%	2.8%	4.87	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		90	0	118	523	96	90	17	0%	1.3	18.4%	17.1%	1.3%	3.3%	4.81	5.51	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	0	200	886	163	152	29	0%	1.3	18.4%	17.1%	1.3%	3.3%	4.81	5.51	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dennis Colleran Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	21.5%	15.5%	2.9%	—	4.79	22.8%	9.5%	125	-0.41	—	—	—
Luis Ramirez R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.71	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.97	3.71	104	92
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	91
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	91
Gabriel Ponce R 2021 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	24.4%	16.2%	2.8%	.328	4.54	22.4%	7.7%	110	-0.08	4.45	161	90
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	90
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	89
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	89
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	89
Tyler Vogel R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	22	SU	4.93	23.4%	14.3%	3.6%	.305	4.48	19.1%	6.1%	135	-0.45	3.84	200	88
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	88
Matt Keating R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	22	SU	4.34	23.3%	14.8%	2.4%	.346	4.63	23.2%	9.1%	157	+0.29	3.38	222	88
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	87
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	87
Jonathan Teaney R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	22.5%	19.8%	1.9%	.328	5.65	16.4%	0.7%	55	+0.88	4.77	108	87
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	87
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	87
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	87
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	22.4%	14.0%	1.10	4.98
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84