Dennis Colleran Jr.
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA5.06
FIP5.06
K%21.5%
BB%14.5%
K-BB%7.1%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 0 | 66 | 266 | 72 | 34 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.6% | 14.6% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 2.85 | 4.25 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 44 | 0 | 66 | 266 | 72 | 34 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.1% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 1.5% | 2.85 | 3.25 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 31 | 0 | 33 | 174 | 27 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.6% | 20.2% | -7.7% | 5.5% | 9.18 | 7.63 | -1.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | KC | 50 | 0 | 52 | 222 | 48 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 14.5% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | KC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 14.5% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | KC | — | — | 86 | 396 | 75 | 64 | 14 | — | — | 18.9% | 16.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 6.66 | 6.06 | -1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | KC | — | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 21.5% | 14.5% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | KC | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 52 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.87 | 4.79 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | KC | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 54 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.71 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | KC | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 56 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | KC | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 57 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | KC | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 56 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | KC | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 26 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.87 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | KC | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 38 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.71 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | KC | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 46 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | KC | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 50 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | KC | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 50 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 204 | 0 | 214 | 902 | 211 | 108 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.19 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 101 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 75 | 0 | 100 | 440 | 77 | 74 | 15 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.4% | 16.9% | 0.6% | 3.3% | 4.97 | 5.59 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 151 | 0 | 200 | 883 | 154 | 149 | 29 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.4% | 16.9% | 0.6% | 3.3% | 4.97 | 5.59 | -0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dennis Colleran Jr. (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.06 | 21.5% | 14.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.64 | 23.0% | 10.7% | 167 | -0.42 | — | — | — |
| Luis Ramirez R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.91 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 3.2% | .278 | 3.58 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 53 | -1.33 | 3.58 | 104 | 91 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.97 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.89 | 4.08 | 168 | 91 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.9% | .330 | 4.23 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.34 | 3.09 | 195 | 90 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2028 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 90 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.61 | 24.4% | 16.2% | 2.8% | .328 | 4.59 | 22.6% | 7.5% | 110 | -0.02 | 4.42 | 161 | 90 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2028 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 89 |
| Bailey Dees R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.23 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .248 | 4.32 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 278 | +0.09 | 3.40 | 330 | 89 |
| Matt Brill R 2027 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.94 | 20.8% | 16.3% | 2.8% | .248 | 3.84 | 19.4% | 4.9% | 60 | -1.10 | 3.75 | 161 | 89 |
| Matt Keating R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.24 | 23.3% | 14.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 4.58 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 142 | +0.34 | 3.39 | 208 | 89 |
| CJ Weins R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 24.7% | 15.9% | 2.5% | .276 | 5.59 | 16.8% | -2.7% | 73 | +1.17 | 4.42 | 113 | 89 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.76 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 3.0% | .254 | 4.52 | 17.5% | 6.3% | 154 | -0.24 | 4.09 | 183 | 88 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2027 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.28 | 21.9% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .295 | 5.27 | 18.8% | 4.5% | 93 | -0.01 | 3.94 | 189 | 88 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2028 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 88 |
| Max Alba R 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 88 |
| James Acuna R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.89 | 21.3% | 17.0% | 2.6% | .302 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 60 | -0.66 | 4.23 | 107 | 88 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 88 |
| Carlos Espinosa R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.44 | 22.8% | 13.2% | 2.9% | .331 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 103 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 247 | 88 |
| Stefan Raeth R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 18.0% | 15.4% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.76 | 17.5% | 8.3% | 124 | -0.03 | 4.36 | 173 | 87 |
| Tyler Vogel R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.21 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 4.2% | .305 | 4.40 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 116 | -0.81 | 3.83 | 182 | 87 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 87 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 55 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 1.09 | 4.71 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |