Dennis Colleran Jr.
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
+0.3
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2028
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.5%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%11.7%
IP65
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2028
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 44 | 0 | 66 | 266 | 72 | 34 | 4 | 20.6% | 14.6% | 1.9% | 2.85 | 4.26 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 7.20 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 62 | 30 | 8 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | KC | — | — | 70 | 297 | 66 | 33 | 9 | 22.2% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.20 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 67 | 28 | 8 | 23.3% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.32 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 69 | 293 | 70 | 28 | 8 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.20 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 72 | 27 | 8 | 24.2% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.13 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 72 | 27 | 8 | 24.4% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.11 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 72 | 27 | 8 | 24.4% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.12 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 69 | 290 | 71 | 27 | 8 | 24.3% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.15 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 69 | 26 | 8 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.19 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | KC | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 66 | 26 | 8 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.26 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 63 | 25 | 8 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 60 | 25 | 8 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | KC | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 57 | 24 | 8 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | KC | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 53 | 23 | 8 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | KC | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 0 | 71 | 287 | 59 | 42 | 6 | 20.5% | 14.6% | 2.1% | 3.15 | 4.38 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 137 | 0 | 200 | 805 | 165 | 118 | 17 | 20.5% | 14.6% | 2.1% | 3.15 | 4.38 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dennis Colleran Jr. (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.22 | 23.8% | 14.3% | 207 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.38 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .292 | 5.40 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.02 | 4.38 | 355 | 93 |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .312 | 5.10 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +0.87 | 4.23 | 152 | 93 |
| William Kempner R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .277 | 3.24 | 27.3% | 11.8% | 68 | -0.80 | 3.24 | 129 | 93 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.24 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.26 | 3.32 | 181 | 93 |
| Brendan Collins R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 91 |
| Aaron Holiday R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.81 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 3.9% | .310 | 5.20 | 19.7% | -3.3% | 59 | +0.39 | 4.72 | 116 | 91 |
| David Garner R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 91 |
| Alec Barger R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.51 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.8% | .289 | 4.17 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.34 | 3.86 | 242 | 91 |
| Shane Broyles R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.95 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .338 | 3.75 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.20 | 3.30 | 218 | 91 |
| Tyler Vogel R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.87 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 3.5% | .305 | 4.25 | 18.8% | 7.4% | 82 | -0.62 | 3.84 | 147 | 90 |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.45 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.6% | .325 | 4.61 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 105 | +0.16 | 4.10 | 174 | 90 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.10 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.90 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.80 | 4.10 | 168 | 89 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 89 |
| Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.64 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.65 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +1.01 | 3.64 | 429 | 89 |
| Carlos Espinosa R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.27 | 22.8% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .331 | 4.33 | 23.0% | 12.0% | 61 | +0.06 | 3.71 | 205 | 89 |
| Chay Yeager R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.18 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .237 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 110 | 88 |
| Alex Cook R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.03 | 26.1% | 10.8% | 3.2% | .266 | 3.34 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 53 | -0.69 | 2.94 | 119 | 88 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.24 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.43 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.19 | 4.24 | 225 | 88 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.80 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.3% | .313 | 3.99 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 94 | +0.19 | 3.80 | 146 | 88 |
| Bailey Dees R 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.27 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .248 | 4.37 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 278 | +0.10 | 3.41 | 330 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $7M | $18M | +$11M | ||