Matthew Ellis — OGILVIE

Matthew EllisC Everett AquaSox

Age 25 L/R 6'4" / 248 lbs A+ K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION339 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP278

ISO153

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	24	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	78	70	16	5	0	1	6	25	2	0	0	229	308	343	651	114	341	32	8	298	88	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	24	A	Modesto Nuts	—	260	202	48	11	1	8	49	54	4	3	1	238	391	421	812	183	282	21	19	365	133	+10	+0	—	—	+6	1.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	78	72	11	3	0	1	4	37	2	0	0	153	218	236	454	83	287	47	5	193	17	-8	+0	—	—	+2	-0.6
2025	24	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	260	219	47	9	1	10	35	69	4	3	1	215	333	402	735	187	254	27	13	321	103	+1	+0	—	—	+6	0.7
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	338	291	58	12	1	11	39	106	6	3	1	199	307	361	667	162	267	31	12	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A RAW	2 teams	—	338	272	64	16	1	9	55	79	6	3	1	235	372	401	773	165	296	23	16	349	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	338	290	58	12	1	11	39	106	6	3	1	200	307	362	669	162	262	31	12	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	338	290	58	12	1	11	39	106	6	3	1	200	307	362	669	162	262	31	12	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	SEA	—	339	300	55	8	0	13	34	137	4	2	1	183	275	340	615	157	278	40	10	269	68	-13	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ RAW	SEA	—	339	279	69	11	0	17	54	98	4	2	1	247	376	470	845	222	315	29	16	375	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	25	A+ MLE	SEA	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		281	33	11	288	81	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	25	A+ MLE	SEA	—	348	308	56	8	0	13	35	140	4	2	1	182	274	334	608	153	276	40	10	270	69	-13	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SEA	42%	328	289	58	10	1	11	33	114	3	3	1	201	289	356	646	156	283	35	10	292	84	-6	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.7
2028	27	MLB MLE	SEA	58%	363	319	66	12	1	12	37	123	4	4	1	207	297	364	661	157	284	34	10	295	86	-6	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	SEA	67%	385	339	70	12	1	13	39	128	4	4	1	206	296	363	659	156	284	33	10	295	86	-6	+0	-1	+7	+8	0.9
2030	29	MLB MLE	SEA	69%	390	343	71	13	1	13	40	130	4	5	1	207	297	364	662	157	283	33	10	294	85	-7	+1	-1	+7	+8	0.8
2031	30	MLB MLE	SEA	70%	392	345	70	12	1	13	40	131	4	4	1	203	293	357	650	154	281	33	10	291	83	-8	+0	-2	+7	+8	0.6
2032	31	MLB MLE	SEA	71%	371	326	66	11	1	12	38	125	4	4	1	202	293	353	646	150	279	34	10	287	80	-9	+0	-3	+7	+8	0.4
2033	32	MLB MLE	SEA	78%	345	304	59	10	1	10	35	118	3	4	1	194	284	332	616	138	275	34	10	282	77	-10	+0	-4	+6	+7	0.1
2034	33	MLB MLE	SEA	82%	308	271	52	9	0	9	31	107	3	3	1	192	282	325	607	133	270	35	10	275	72	-10	+0	-4	+6	+7	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	SEA	42%	139	123	24	4	0	5	14	48	1	1	0	195	283	350	632	154	280	35	10	281	84	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	SEA	58%	212	187	38	7	0	7	21	72	2	2	1	203	290	353	643	150	281	34	10	284	86	-4	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	SEA	67%	257	226	46	8	1	8	26	86	3	3	1	204	294	354	648	150	281	33	10	284	86	-4	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	SEA	69%	269	237	48	8	1	9	27	89	3	3	1	203	292	359	651	156	280	33	10	283	85	-5	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	SEA	70%	275	242	50	9	1	9	28	92	3	3	1	207	297	364	660	157	278	33	10	281	83	-6	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2032	31	MLB CTX	SEA	71%	263	231	45	8	0	8	27	89	3	3	1	195	287	333	621	139	276	34	10	277	80	-6	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.3
2033	32	MLB CTX	SEA	78%	267	235	45	8	0	8	27	91	3	3	1	191	283	328	611	136	272	34	10	272	77	-7	+0	-3	+5	+6	0.1
2034	33	MLB CTX	SEA	82%	253	223	41	7	0	7	26	88	2	3	1	184	275	309	584	126	268	35	10	265	72	-8	+0	-3	+5	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1935	1704	337	59	3	61	196	655	20	21	7	198	288	343	631	146	277	34	10	278	82	-43	+1	-11	+35	+42	2.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	572	113	20	1	20	66	220	7	7	2	198	288	341	629	143	278	34	10	278	82	-14	+0	-4	+12	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	3229	2835	571	101	8	104	333	1085	35	34	9	201	293	353	646	151	281	34	10	289	82	-62	+3	-15	+52	+63	4.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	571	115	20	2	21	67	218	7	7	2	201	293	354	647	152	280	34	10	289	82	-14	+1	-3	+12	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
/162	664	24	0	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.9	1,936	62	21	202	288	350	+35	+20	4.3	4.2
/162	664	21	7	+11.9	+6.9	1.5	pk7: 4
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Ellis (OGILVIE)	25	40	45	40	60	194/286/347	153	281	10	3	36%	10%	81	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ian Rice 2019 · AA	25	41→40	48→50	44→30	49	209/298/347	138	281	16	3	30%	10%	84	+0.2	201/275/300	99	287	9	5	31%	8%	65	-1.2	159/231/218	59	232	5	0	31%	7%	30	-1.7
✕Trevor Hauver 2023 · AA	24	40→46	49→50	46→40	53	199/308/347	148	293	17	3	35%	13%	88	+0.5	211/300/349	138	314	14	3	34%	11%	86	+0.3	212/299/348	136	310	13	2	33%	10%	83	+0.0
✕Tyler Ogle 2016 · A	25	42→43	50	36→30	50	218/297/371	152	264	19	2	25%	9%	89	+0.5	214/280/350	136	275	15	5	27%	7%	78	-0.3	179/248/294	115	224	12	0	25%	6%	52	-0.6
✕Travis Scott 2010 · A	25	44	51→55	47→40	43	227/281/393	166	287	19	4	28%	7%	88	+0.4	215/268/348	133	278	14	6	27%	6%	72	-0.7	206/261/334	129	240	17	3	22%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Reese Havens 2011 · AA	24	44→40	51→45	40	47	226/302/383	157	283	19	4	27%	8%	94	+0.9	215/288/337	122	303	12	4	31%	9%	78	-0.3	200/278/306	106	285	11	3	31%	9%	64	-0.5
✕Alex Isola 2023 · AA	25	42→45	50	43→40	48	218/287/363	144	270	19	3	26%	9%	84	+0.1	214/279/337	123	270	14	6	25%	8%	74	-0.5	204/270/318	114	256	13	5	25%	7%	65	-0.8
✕Devin Mann 2022 · AA	25	41→44	49→50	43→45	44	211/285/364	153	273	17	7	29%	7%	84	+0.1	217/297/364	147	287	15	5	28%	9%	88	+0.4	213/295/355	142	282	15	3	28%	9%	82	+0.0
✕Matt Lloyd 2022 · AA	26	43→44	53→45	43→50	41	221/290/387	166	314	21	7	35%	8%	91	+0.6	214/282/348	134	301	15	10	32%	8%	78	-0.3	213/284/331	119	285	13	12	28%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Hunter Feduccia 2022 · AA	25	44→47	45→50	46→40	48	221/285/339	118	278	13	4	25%	8%	77	-0.3	218/292/356	138	288	15	3	28%	9%	84	+0.1	229/318/340	111	310	9	3	27%	11%	88	+0.2
✕Jared Greenwood 2007 · A	24	40	50→55	43→45	42	206/271/353	147	291	19	7	35%	8%	76	-0.4	205/267/331	126	322	14	6	38%	7%	69	-0.9	171/235/285	114	284	13	0	42%	7%	42	-1.0
✕Adam Witter 2008 · A	25	42→39	52→50	46→30	43	221/281/389	168	286	20	4	30%	7%	87	+0.4	203/266/347	144	256	17	3	27%	7%	72	-0.7	185/251/323	138	225	18	1	26%	8%	60	-1.0
✕Zack Collins 2019 · AA	24	38→42	47→50	47→40	50	189/290/325	136	291	15	4	37%	12%	77	-0.3	204/299/347	143	302	15	4	34%	12%	85	+0.2	186/288/337	151	263	17	2	33%	12%	78	-0.2
✕Emerson Frostad 2008 · AA	25	44→48	49→50	41→40	43	225/280/373	148	284	17	5	27%	7%	83	+0.1	220/276/332	112	282	9	5	24%	7%	72	-0.7	218/274/316	98	274	6	2	22%	7%	65	-0.7
✕Paul McIntosh 2023 · AA	25	44→45	50→45	47→45	50	225/310/390	165	281	17	11	26%	9%	99	+1.2	218/293/348	130	279	15	8	26%	8%	82	+0.0	215/283/334	119	265	13	4	23%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Joe Rizzo 2023 · AA	25	46→48	49→50	42→40	43	234/283/379	145	287	18	4	25%	6%	86	+0.3	221/272/352	131	280	14	5	26%	6%	75	-0.5	197/247/312	115	250	12	1	26%	6%	53	-1.2
✕Stephen Scott 2022 · A	25	46→45	52→50	47→50	49	234/308/402	167	290	19	5	26%	9%	100	+1.3	210/287/355	145	262	16	9	25%	9%	82	-0.0	199/277/341	142	245	16	10	25%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Landon Powell 2007 · AA	25	44→41	49→50	46→30	45	224/286/360	136	286	18	3	28%	8%	82	+0.0	225/298/379	154	279	20	3	26%	9%	91	+0.7	217/297/380	163	258	22	1	25%	10%	89	+0.2
✕Ford Proctor 2022 · AA	25	45→49	44→40	44→45	49	219/303/338	119	305	12	7	30%	10%	84	+0.1	205/293/309	104	299	12	6	32%	10%	74	-0.6	190/283/274	84	276	11	4	32%	11%	61	-1.0
✕Brandon Powell 2006 · A	25	45	52→50	45→50	38	232/273/398	166	303	19	7	30%	5%	86	+0.3	227/271/366	139	325	15	16	33%	5%	78	-0.3	222/268/356	133	323	14	20	34%	4%	72	-0.4
✕Erik Ostberg 2022 · AA	26	42	49→50	42→45	39	216/272/355	139	309	18	4	35%	7%	76	-0.4	202/261/336	134	286	15	7	33%	7%	68	-1.0	172/234/305	133	236	15	7	33%	7%	48	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps