Matthew Ellis — OGILVIE

Matthew EllisC Everett AquaSox

Age 25 L/R 6'4" / 248 lbs A+ HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION189 act + 126 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†90

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .296 / .373

PA126

HR5

K%36

BB%11

BABIP279

ISO173

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$8M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$19M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	24	A	2 teams	—	338	291	63	12	1	15	39	105	6	3	1	216	321	419	741	203	277	31	12	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A	2 teams	—	338	272	64	16	1	9	55	79	6	3	1	235	372	401	773	165	296	23	16	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	A+	SEA	—	189	166	31	6	0	8	21	81	2	1	0	187	286	367	653	181	299	43	11	286	77	-5	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.4
YTD	25	A+	SEA	—	189	153	40	8	0	11	33	58	2	1	0	261	397	529	926	268	345	31	17	406	169	+15	+0	+0	+3	+5	2.4
ROS	25	A+	SEA	0%	126	110	22	4	0	5	14	45	1	1	0	200	296	373	669	173	287	36	11	303	90	-1	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.5
ROS	25	MLB	SEA	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						284	0	0	291	81	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	25	A+	SEA	—	190	167	31	6	0	8	21	81	2	1	0	186	284	365	649	180	295	43	11	286	77	-5	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.4
TOT	25	A+	SEA	—	315	276	53	10	0	13	35	126	3	2	0	192	290	370	659	178	290	40	11	293	82	-6	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	SEA	42%	314	274	57	10	1	12	34	109	3	4	1	208	302	383	685	175	288	35	11	305	92	-3	+0	+0	+6	+9	1.2
2028	27	MLB	SEA	58%	354	309	65	12	1	13	38	120	4	4	1	210	305	382	687	172	289	34	11	307	93	-3	+0	+0	+6	+10	1.4
2029	28	MLB	SEA	67%	378	331	70	13	1	14	40	127	4	5	1	211	304	384	688	172	288	34	11	307	93	-3	+1	-1	+7	+11	1.5
2030	29	MLB	SEA	69%	386	338	71	13	1	14	41	129	4	5	1	210	303	379	682	169	287	33	11	305	92	-4	+1	-1	+7	+11	1.4
2031	30	MLB	SEA	70%	389	340	71	13	1	14	42	131	4	5	1	209	303	376	680	168	286	34	11	302	90	-5	+1	-2	+7	+11	1.2
2032	31	MLB	SEA	71%	370	324	66	12	1	13	39	126	4	4	1	204	297	367	664	164	283	34	11	298	87	-6	+0	-3	+7	+10	0.9
2033	32	MLB	SEA	78%	344	301	61	11	1	12	37	118	3	4	1	203	296	365	662	163	279	34	11	293	82	-7	+0	-4	+6	+10	0.6
2027	26	MLB	SEA	42%	133	117	23	4	0	5	14	46	1	2	0	197	288	359	647	162	285	35	11	294	83	-3	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.4
2028	27	MLB	SEA	58%	207	181	37	7	1	7	22	70	2	3	1	204	298	370	668	166	286	34	11	296	84	-4	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.6
2029	28	MLB	SEA	67%	252	220	46	8	1	9	27	84	3	3	1	209	304	377	681	168	285	33	11	296	84	-4	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.7
2030	29	MLB	SEA	69%	266	233	48	9	1	9	28	89	3	3	1	206	299	369	668	163	284	33	11	294	83	-5	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.7
2031	30	MLB	SEA	70%	273	239	49	9	1	9	29	92	3	3	1	205	299	364	663	159	283	34	11	291	81	-6	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.6
2032	31	MLB	SEA	71%	262	229	46	8	1	9	28	89	3	3	1	201	296	362	659	162	280	34	11	288	78	-6	+0	-2	+5	+7	0.4
2033	32	MLB	SEA	78%	267	234	47	8	1	9	28	92	3	3	1	201	294	359	653	158	276	34	10	282	74	-8	+0	-3	+5	+8	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1661	1454	296	53	6	57	176	562	18	20	6	204	297	366	663	162	284	34	11	291	81	-36	+2	-8	+30	+47	3.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	569	115	21	2	22	69	220	7	8	2	202	296	362	658	160	282	34	11	291	81	-14	+1	-3	+12	+18	1.4
Career	—			—	2999	2618	546	100	8	112	324	1010	33	35	8	209	304	381	685	173	287	34	11	305	91	-30	+4	-10	+54	+85	10.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	567	119	22	2	24	70	219	7	8	2	210	304	383	687	173	290	34	11	305	91	-6	+1	-2	+12	+18	2.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	24	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	78	70	16	5	0	1	6	25	2	0	0	229	308	343	651	114	341	32	8	298	86	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	24	A	Modesto Nuts	—	260	202	48	11	1	8	49	54	4	3	1	238	391	421	812	183	282	21	19	365	137	+11	+0	—	—	+7	1.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Kelly Shoppachlast yr '13 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,839 PA	8	1,839	70	1	225	314	417	+33	+14	11.3	11.5
	/162	664	25	0	225	314	417	+11.9	+5.0	4.1	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,661	59	19	208	298	375	+30	+20	5.6	5.6
	/162	664	24	8	208	298	375	+11.9	+8.0	2.2	pk7: 6
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Ellis (OGILVIE)	25	40	45	40	60	192/290/370	178	290	13	2	40%	11%	82	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chance Sisco 2020 · MLB	25	44→54	51→50	41→40	44	222/308/378	155	297	19	3	30%	8%	95	+1.4	207/300/356	149	279	17	4	30%	9%	86	+0.8	174/281/301	128	241	13	0	31%	10%	63	-0.3
✕Ian Rice 2019 · AA	25	41→39	50	44→30	49	210/300/364	154	287	19	3	32%	10%	88	+0.9	198/272/302	104	291	10	5	33%	8%	59	-1.1	151/222/208	57	227	5	0	34%	7%	14	-1.8
✕Matt Lloyd 2022 · AA	26	44→43	56→50	43→50	41	225/295/408	183	318	25	7	36%	8%	98	+1.6	213/281/352	139	306	16	10	34%	8%	76	+0.1	210/283/335	125	290	14	12	31%	9%	72	-0.1
✕Trevor Hauver 2023 · AA	24	40→48	49→50	46→40	53	199/309/350	151	292	17	3	35%	13%	89	+0.9	217/305/367	150	319	15	3	33%	11%	90	+1.0	220/308/374	154	316	15	2	32%	10%	90	+0.8
✕Joe Rizzo 2023 · AA	25	46→50	54→55	42→40	42	242/290/414	172	295	22	4	26%	6%	96	+1.5	226/275/372	146	285	17	5	26%	6%	79	+0.3	199/248/328	129	250	15	1	27%	6%	52	-0.9
✕Alex Isola 2023 · AA	25	41→45	52→50	43→40	47	218/287/374	156	271	21	3	28%	8%	85	+0.7	214/279/342	128	273	15	6	26%	8%	72	-0.2	203/270/322	119	256	14	5	26%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Travis Scott 2010 · A	25	44	51→55	47→40	43	227/281/393	166	287	19	4	28%	7%	86	+0.8	213/265/343	130	278	13	6	27%	6%	66	-0.6	197/249/313	116	234	15	3	23%	5%	50	-0.4
✕Tyler Ogle 2016 · A	25	41→44	52→50	36→30	50	217/297/379	162	259	21	2	25%	9%	91	+1.1	214/283/358	144	276	17	5	28%	8%	79	+0.3	183/255/309	127	233	13	0	27%	7%	53	-0.4
✕Devin Mann 2022 · AA	25	39→46	52→55	43→45	43	208/281/373	165	273	19	7	31%	7%	82	+0.5	221/299/382	161	292	18	5	29%	9%	92	+1.2	218/299/375	157	288	18	3	29%	9%	87	+0.6
✕Reese Havens 2011 · AA	24	44→40	51→45	40	47	225/301/385	160	282	19	4	27%	8%	94	+1.3	213/287/341	128	307	14	4	33%	9%	76	+0.1	195/275/309	114	284	12	3	33%	9%	60	-0.4
✕Stephen Scott 2022 · A	25	45→44	54→55	47→50	49	237/308/418	181	290	22	5	26%	9%	105	+2.1	212/287/370	158	261	19	9	26%	9%	84	+0.6	200/278/359	159	241	19	10	26%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Justin Nelson 2008 · A	25	43→41	53→55	43→45	44	218/290/395	176	307	20	7	34%	8%	91	+1.1	222/292/398	176	321	21	5	35%	8%	92	+1.2	205/277/400	194	286	25	1	36%	8%	83	+0.4
✕Paul McIntosh 2023 · AA	25	43→45	51→45	47→45	49	223/307/392	169	283	19	11	27%	9%	98	+1.6	219/292/356	137	280	16	8	27%	8%	82	+0.5	221/287/350	129	269	15	5	23%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Hunter Feduccia 2022 · AA	25	43→50	47→50	46→40	46	220/283/351	130	279	15	4	26%	8%	76	+0.1	220/292/364	144	293	16	3	29%	9%	84	+0.6	232/319/354	122	311	11	2	27%	11%	90	+0.7
✕Adam Witter 2008 · A	25	42→39	52→55	46→30	43	221/281/389	168	286	20	4	30%	7%	85	+0.7	204/266/355	151	259	19	3	28%	7%	71	-0.3	186/252/335	148	227	20	1	28%	8%	58	-0.7
✕Emerson Frostad 2008 · AA	25	44→47	50	41→40	43	225/280/379	154	286	18	5	28%	7%	82	+0.5	219/275/334	115	283	10	5	25%	7%	68	-0.5	216/271/315	99	273	7	2	22%	7%	59	-0.7
●Ryan Schimpf 2013 · AA	25	38→41	52→65	48→45	44	202/276/371	169	268	19	7	31%	8%	79	+0.3	192/268/370	178	250	22	4	32%	8%	76	+0.1	203/283/425	222	241	28	2	29%	8%	94	+1.0
✕Marcos Castañon 2023 · A	24	38→48	54→55	38→40	47	203/299/376	174	276	23	2	34%	10%	91	+1.1	225/288/383	158	295	20	3	29%	7%	87	+0.8	230/285/382	152	297	19	2	28%	6%	83	+0.5
✕Luis Torrens 2022 · MLB	26	46→47	54→55	45→30	46	238/296/415	177	289	22	3	26%	8%	98	+1.6	234/288/383	149	306	17	3	28%	7%	87	+0.8	227/280/355	128	284	13	2	24%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Michael McKenry 2010 · AA	25	45→47	51→55	39→40	49	228/299/389	161	277	18	4	24%	8%	93	+1.3	218/279/351	133	278	14	3	26%	7%	75	-0.0	241/316/409	168	288	21	2	23%	9%	102	+0.7