Matthew Ellis

C Everett AquaSox

Age 26 L/R 6'4" / 248 lbs A+ K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1440ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	24	A+/A2 orgs	338	.235/.372/.401	9	3	76	—	.192/.295/.333
2026	25	A+/INTL2 orgs	381	.238/.374/.460	19	3	80	—	.192/.290/.354
2027PROJMLE	26	MLBSEA	380	.205/.299/.358	12	5	87	0.3
2028PROJ33% MLB	27	MLBSEA	30	.204/.297/.352	1	0	87	0.1
2029PROJ49% MLB	28	MLBSEA	74	.204/.296/.350	2	1	86	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Chase%84

BB%83

ISO80

wOBA72

wRC+67

K%27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsZack Collins (age 27) · Matt Lloyd (age 26) · Trevor Hauver (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 89 proj PA

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .297 / .355

PA89

HR3

K%32

BB%11

ISO153

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	24	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	78	70	16	5	0	1	6	25	2	0	0	229	308	343	651	114	341	32	8	298	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A	Modesto Nuts	—	260	202	48	11	1	8	49	54	4	3	1	238	391	421	812	183	282	21	19	365	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	339	279	69	11	0	17	54	98	4	2	1	247	376	470	845	222	315	29	16	375	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	42	32	5	1	0	2	9	18	1	1	0	156	357	375	732	219	250	43	21	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	78	72	11	3	0	1	4	35	2	0	0	153	218	236	454	83	297	45	5	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	260	221	45	9	1	8	33	70	4	3	1	204	318	362	680	158	248	27	13	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	339	297	57	9	0	13	37	132	4	2	1	192	290	354	643	162	280	39	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	338	293	56	12	1	9	37	105	6	3	1	191	295	331	626	140	260	31	11	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A RAW	2 teams	—	338	272	64	16	1	9	55	79	6	3	1	235	372	401	773	165	296	23	16	349	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	381	333	63	10	0	14	42	149	5	3	1	189	289	345	635	156	287	39	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	381	311	74	12	0	19	63	116	5	3	1	238	374	460	833	222	311	30	17	371	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	338	292	56	12	1	9	37	105	6	3	1	192	295	332	627	140	259	31	11	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	381	331	63	10	0	14	42	149	5	3	1	190	289	347	637	157	280	39	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	338	292	56	12	1	9	37	105	6	3	1	192	295	332	627	140	259	31	11	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	381	331	63	10	0	14	42	149	5	3	1	190	289	347	637	157	280	39	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SEA	0%	380	333	68	13	1	12	40	123	4	5	1	205	299	358	657	153	281	32	11	296	87	-6	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SEA	33%	93	82	16	3	0	3	10	30	1	1	0	206	299	358	657	152	281	32	11	296	87	-1	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	SEA	49%	149	130	27	5	0	5	16	47	2	2	1	206	298	356	654	150	280	32	11	295	86	-3	+0	-1	+3	+3	0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	SEA	56%	186	163	34	6	1	6	19	59	2	2	1	206	296	352	648	146	279	32	10	293	84	-3	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	SEA	33%	30	27	5	1	0	1	3	10	0	0	0	204	297	352	650	149	278	33	10	293	87	-0	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	SEA	49%	74	65	12	2	0	2	8	24	1	1	0	204	296	350	646	146	278	32	11	292	86	-1	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	SEA	56%	103	90	18	3	0	3	11	33	1	1	0	204	294	347	641	143	277	32	11	290	84	-2	+0	-1	+2	+2	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	207	182	35	6	0	6	22	67	2	2	0	192	286	324	611	132	264	32	11	291	80	-4	+0	-1	+4	+4	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	110	19	0	19	69	210	6	6	0	193	286	326	612	133	264	32	11	291	80	-11	+1	-4	+12	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	1236	1080	212	39	2	40	133	419	17	12	4	196	294	347	642	151	275	34	11	286	80	-9	+0	-2	+9	+11	1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	568	112	21	1	21	70	220	9	6	2	197	296	349	644	151	276	34	11	286	80	-11	+1	-3	+12	+14	1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Everett AquaSox · 339 PAwOBA .367 → .279 (−88)K% 28.9% → 39.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.91%	÷1.000	×1.350	—	—	39.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.93%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.968	10.95%
HBP% /PA	1.18%	—	×0.810	—	×0.968	0.93%
Singles /BIP	22.65%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.050	×0.968	20.95%
Doubles /BIP	6.08%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×0.968	5.13%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.050	×0.968	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.39%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.968	7.55%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .367 → .279; ISO .222 → .166; BABIP .315 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AModesto Nuts · 260 PAwOBA .359 → .302 (−57)K% 20.8% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.77%	÷1.045	×1.360	—	—	27.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.85%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	×0.970	12.77%
HBP% /PA	1.54%	—	×0.780	—	×0.970	1.16%
Singles /BIP	18.92%	÷0.989	×0.920	×1.023	×0.970	17.45%
Doubles /BIP	7.43%	÷1.067	×0.830	×1.023	×0.970	5.74%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷1.097	×0.910	×1.023	×0.970	0.56%
Home runs /BIP	5.41%	÷0.759	×0.800	—	×0.970	5.53%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 52, 1B 98, 2B 113, 3B 119, K 109, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .359 → .302; ISO .183 → .178; BABIP .282 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Everett AquaSox · 78 PAwOBA .290 → .206 (−84)K% 32.1% → 45.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.05%	÷0.957	×1.350	—	—	45.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷0.999	×0.710	—	×0.978	5.34%
HBP% /PA	2.56%	—	×0.810	—	×0.978	2.03%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.001	×0.910	—	×0.978	19.76%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷0.955	×0.830	—	×0.978	9.45%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.820	—	×0.978	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.22%	÷1.036	×0.830	—	×0.978	1.74%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .290 → .206; ISO .114 → .078; BABIP .341 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Doug Mirabelli'96-'07 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,655 PA	2.5	1,655	58	3	222*	307*	395*	+26	+0	5.5	5.6
/162	664	23	1	+10.6	+0.0	2.2	pk7: 6
#5Chris Widger'95-'06 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,998 PA	3.0	1,998	55	10	227*	283*	381*	+33	-0	3.6	4.1
/162	664	18	3	+11.1	-0.2	1.2	pk7: 5
#6Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	208	6	2	207	295	356	+4	+4	0.6	0.6
/162	664	20	7	+11.9	+12.8	1.8	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Ellis (OGILVIE)	26	40	45	40	60	203/297/355	152	281	3	1	32%	11%	87	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zack Collins 2022 · MLB	27	43→42	49→50	44→40	52	211/307/361	149	295	16	4	32%	12%	91	+0.7	198/284/337	139	295	15	6	35%	10%	77	-0.3	182/269/315	133	275	15	5	37%	10%	66	-0.7
✕Matt Lloyd 2022 · AA	26	43→42	53→45	43→50	41	221/289/386	165	313	21	7	35%	7%	91	+0.6	212/279/344	132	297	15	10	32%	7%	76	-0.4	205/275/320	116	273	13	12	28%	8%	69	-0.5
✕Trevor Hauver 2024 · AA	25	42→49	48→50	43→40	50	205/300/347	143	300	15	3	34%	11%	85	+0.2	222/303/349	127	321	12	4	32%	10%	86	+0.3	222/302/336	114	319	10	3	31%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Isan Díaz 2021 · MLB	25	44→43	51→55	44→45	44	223/291/382	159	296	18	8	30%	8%	90	+0.6	213/286/370	157	282	19	7	30%	9%	85	+0.2	192/269/361	169	236	25	8	31%	9%	74	-0.2
✕Adam Witter 2009 · AA	26	40→39	52→50	39→30	46	213/280/375	162	266	20	3	28%	8%	84	+0.1	204/261/334	130	261	15	5	27%	7%	67	-1.1	165/214/271	106	203	14	0	27%	6%	34	-1.6
✕Alex Isola 2024 · AA	26	44	49→50	44→40	47	224/291/365	141	278	17	5	26%	8%	86	+0.3	208/271/321	113	264	12	8	25%	7%	68	-1.0	174/240/261	87	216	9	6	24%	7%	42	-1.7
✕Riley Adams 2023 · MLB	27	41→44	49→50	42→40	43	207/293/356	149	296	16	3	34%	8%	85	+0.2	225/295/377	152	314	16	4	32%	7%	90	+0.6	218/287/365	147	309	16	2	33%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Paul McIntosh 2024 · AAA	26	42→43	49→45	45	47	215/296/360	145	278	17	8	28%	9%	87	+0.4	216/284/339	123	270	14	6	25%	7%	77	-0.3	209/277/327	118	257	13	4	23%	7%	69	-0.5
●Ryan Schimpf 2014 · AA	26	36→41	52→60	44→45	47	194/276/360	166	255	20	5	32%	9%	80	-0.2	203/279/394	191	250	23	4	29%	8%	88	+0.5	203/284/421	218	238	27	2	28%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Trey Hair 2022 · A	27	44	52→55	44→45	39	226/294/386	160	314	21	8	34%	6%	92	+0.7	221/275/401	180	283	24	7	31%	6%	88	+0.5	198/243/418	220	221	33	3	30%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Andy Yerzy 2024 · AA	26	38	49→50	49→40	47	197/281/343	146	263	18	6	31%	9%	78	-0.3	191/256/297	106	275	12	6	33%	8%	57	-1.8	143/211/218	74	223	10	2	39%	7%	19	-1.3
✕Hunter Feduccia 2023 · AAA	26	42→50	50	47→40	46	216/280/365	150	273	18	3	28%	8%	82	-0.0	234/312/363	129	309	12	3	26%	10%	93	+0.8	239/325/358	119	315	10	2	25%	11%	94	+0.6
✕Chance Sisco 2021 · MLB	26	45→55	51→50	43→40	48	227/330/389	162	308	20	3	31%	10%	107	+1.8	204/290/339	135	275	14	5	29%	9%	80	-0.2	160/246/269	109	216	9	0	29%	8%	46	-1.1
✕Ian Rice 2019 · AA	25	41→40	48→50	44→30	49	209/298/350	141	280	16	3	30%	10%	85	+0.2	200/274/302	102	285	10	5	31%	8%	65	-1.2	158/229/219	60	230	5	0	31%	7%	30	-1.7
✕Travis Scott 2010 · A	25	44	51→55	47→40	43	226/280/391	165	285	18	4	28%	7%	87	+0.4	213/266/345	132	275	14	6	27%	6%	71	-0.8	201/256/327	126	234	17	3	22%	5%	61	-0.3
✕Drew Ellis 2022 · MLB	26	41→38	53→55	45→40	48	212/303/389	177	276	20	3	30%	9%	96	+1.0	198/288/359	161	255	18	6	28%	10%	84	+0.1	180/274/332	152	226	17	6	28%	10%	70	-0.5
✕Scott Manea 2022 · AA	26	46→42	46→45	36→30	47	227/308/354	127	299	15	4	28%	9%	90	+0.6	209/291/306	97	305	8	5	31%	9%	72	-0.7	176/269/247	71	269	5	0	33%	9%	48	-1.4
✕Erik Ostberg 2022 · AA	26	42	48→50	42→45	39	212/268/348	136	303	18	4	35%	6%	73	-0.6	199/257/332	133	281	15	7	33%	7%	65	-1.2	168/228/301	133	229	15	7	33%	7%	45	-0.8
✕Luis Torrens 2022 · MLB	26	46→49	53→50	45→40	46	238/296/411	173	288	21	3	25%	8%	98	+1.2	233/287/378	145	304	17	3	28%	7%	87	+0.4	235/293/375	140	282	15	2	22%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Brett Cumberland 2021 · AA	26	43→41	45	45→30	46	211/304/338	128	296	13	4	31%	9%	85	+0.2	195/300/300	105	299	11	5	36%	8%	76	-0.4	164/284/254	90	261	11	1	37%	8%	58	-0.7

Matthew Ellis

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps