Juan Rojas

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 165 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	18	7	55	4.45	2.66	27.5%	13.1%	—	K 20.3% · BB 15.2% · FIP 3.63
2025	21	A+Aberdeen Iron…	23	14	85	4.43	3.81	17.9%	10.5%	—	K 13.8% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.32
2026	22	MIX2 levels	26	1	39	7.62	4.46	23.6%	18.1%	—	K 18.8% · BB 20.3% · FIP 5.10
2027PROJ	23	MLBBAL	50	0	52	5.76	5.76	15.8%	17.3%	-0.7
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBBAL	33	0	35	5.47	5.37	17.4%	15.3%	-0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBBAL	50	0	53	5.24	5.14	18.2%	14.0%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsBraeden Fausnaught (age 24) · Colby Langford (age 22) · Garrett Williams (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126134vR 143

ERA5.76

FIP5.76

K%15.8%

BB%17.3%

K-BB%-1.5%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	13	9	40	168	49	14	0	69%	3.1	19.8%	10.4%	9.4%	0.0%	1.80	2.74	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	13	9	40	168	49	14	0	69%	3.1	29.2%	8.3%	20.8%	0.0%	1.80	1.70	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	7	39	148	50	9	3	64%	3.5	23.0%	7.6%	15.4%	2.8%	2.79	3.66	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	11	7	39	148	50	9	3	64%	3.5	33.8%	6.1%	27.7%	2.0%	2.79	2.22	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	5	32	141	27	20	3	45%	2.9	13.5%	14.4%	-0.9%	3.3%	5.62	5.60	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	5	32	141	27	20	3	45%	2.9	19.1%	14.2%	5.0%	2.1%	5.62	4.51	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	55	236	65	31	1	39%	3.0	20.3%	15.2%	5.1%	0.6%	4.45	3.63	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	55	236	65	31	1	39%	3.0	20.3%	15.2%	5.1%	0.6%	4.45	3.63	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	7	55	236	65	31	1	39%	3.0	27.5%	13.1%	14.4%	0.4%	4.45	2.66	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	23	14	85	390	70	41	6	61%	3.7	13.8%	12.1%	1.7%	1.6%	4.43	4.32	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	23	14	85	390	70	41	6	61%	3.7	13.8%	12.1%	1.7%	1.6%	4.43	4.32	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	23	14	85	390	70	41	6	61%	3.7	17.9%	10.5%	7.4%	1.5%	4.43	3.81	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	39	199	47	36	3	4%	1.5	18.8%	20.3%	-1.5%	1.9%	7.62	5.10	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	39	199	47	36	3	4%	1.5	18.8%	20.3%	-1.5%	1.9%	7.62	5.10	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	1	39	199	47	36	3	4%	1.5	23.6%	18.1%	5.5%	1.5%	7.62	4.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	BAL	50	0	52	220	35	38	6	0%	1.0	15.8%	17.3%	-1.5%	2.6%	5.76	5.76	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BAL	75	0	79	332	58	51	9	0%	1.0	17.4%	15.3%	2.1%	2.6%	5.47	5.37	-0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	BAL	76	0	80	337	61	47	9	0%	1.0	18.2%	14.0%	4.3%	2.6%	5.24	5.14	-0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	BAL	76	0	80	337	63	46	9	0%	1.0	18.7%	13.7%	5.0%	2.6%	5.12	5.08	-0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	BAL	75	0	78	331	62	45	9	0%	1.0	18.8%	13.6%	5.2%	2.7%	5.10	5.09	-0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	BAL	72	0	76	321	60	44	9	0%	1.1	18.7%	13.8%	4.9%	2.8%	5.15	5.18	-0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	BAL	69	0	73	307	57	43	9	0%	1.1	18.4%	14.0%	4.4%	2.9%	5.25	5.31	-0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	BAL	65	0	68	288	52	41	9	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.3%	3.8%	3.1%	5.39	5.49	-0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	BAL	33	0	35	148	26	23	4	0%	1.1	17.4%	15.3%	2.1%	2.6%	5.47	5.37	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	BAL	50	0	53	224	41	31	6	0%	1.1	18.2%	14.0%	4.3%	2.6%	5.24	5.14	-0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	BAL	60	0	63	266	50	36	7	0%	1.1	18.7%	13.7%	5.0%	2.6%	5.12	5.08	-0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	BAL	64	0	67	283	53	39	8	0%	1.0	18.8%	13.6%	5.2%	2.7%	5.10	5.09	-0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	BAL	65	0	68	287	54	40	8	0%	1.0	18.7%	13.8%	4.9%	2.8%	5.15	5.18	-0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	BAL	63	0	66	279	51	39	8	0%	1.0	18.4%	14.0%	4.4%	2.9%	5.25	5.31	-0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	BAL	60	0	63	266	48	38	8	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.3%	3.8%	3.1%	5.39	5.49	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		395	0	415	1753	323	245	49	0%	1.1	18.4%	14.0%	4.4%	2.8%	5.23	4.85	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	118	24	0%	1.1	18.4%	14.0%	4.4%	2.8%	5.23	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		102	43	290	1282	226	172	20	42%	2.8	17.6%	13.4%	4.2%	1.6%	4.41	4.17	-4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	30	200	885	156	119	14	42%	2.8	17.6%	13.4%	4.2%	1.6%	4.41	4.17	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Rojas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.76	15.8%	17.3%	2.6%	—	5.20	18.1%	3.8%	238	-0.56	—	—	—
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	90
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	84
Garrett Williams L 2018 · 5.04 FIP	23	SW	5.04	14.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.335	4.33	19.3%	4.5%	162	-0.71	3.37	470	82
Marino Santy L 2024 · 4.80 FIP	22	SW	4.80	17.6%	16.1%	2.1%	.322	4.51	20.3%	1.1%	82	-0.29	3.91	270	80
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.06	18.5%	7.5%	165	-1.72	3.79	281	79
Julian Smith L 2019 · 4.79 FIP	22	SW	4.79	14.5%	17.4%	1.3%	.399	5.33	17.9%	5.8%	110	+0.54	2.87	189	78
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	77
Tom Windle L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	12.3%	13.0%	1.7%	.304	4.33	18.0%	6.8%	159	-0.30	3.68	330	77
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	76
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	76
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	76
Kikito Severino L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SW	5.78	11.9%	19.5%	2.2%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	135	75
Nathan Kirby L 2018 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	17.7%	16.2%	2.7%	.318	3.84	25.3%	8.7%	38	-1.28	3.84	145	74
Randy Keisler L 2000 · 5.13 FIP	24	SW	5.13	11.5%	15.4%	1.9%	.405	6.43	15.3%	0.9%	51	+1.30	5.07	135	74
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	74
Bryan Warzek L 2019 · 5.92 FIP	22	SW	5.92	17.7%	24.4%	2.2%	.328	6.74	20.2%	1.9%	73	+0.82	1.91	138	74
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	74
Edwin Escobar L 2015 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	9.6%	11.9%	3.9%	.268	4.28	13.7%	4.9%	122	-1.68	4.28	218	74
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	73
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	73	18.1%	14.4%	1.06	5.29
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*