Marty Gair — OGILVIE

Marty Gair P Clearwater Threshers

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 153145vR 137

ERA6.32

FIP6.32

K%23.2%

BB%25.2%

K-BB%-2.0%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	24	0	27	129	40	34	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	31.1%	-8.2%	1.9%	4.33	6.12	—
2025	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	24	0	27	129	40	34	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	31.1%	-8.2%	1.9%	4.33	6.12	—
2025	22	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	24	0	27	129	40	34	2	0%	1.1	31.0%	26.4%	4.7%	1.6%	4.33	4.88	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	40	0	47	195	83	28	5	0%	1.2	31.6%	18.2%	13.3%	4.8%	4.98	5.37	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	40	0	47	195	83	28	5	0%	1.2	31.6%	18.2%	13.3%	4.8%	4.98	5.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	SF	28	0	33	136	58	21	5	0%	1.2	42.6%	15.4%	27.2%	3.7%	4.91	3.47	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	SF	9	0	11	43	21	5	0	0%	1.2	48.8%	11.6%	37.2%	0.0%	1.64	0.45	—
2026	23	AA RAW	SF	3	0	3	16	4	2	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	18.00	2.57	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SF	45	0	47	199	47	41	6	0%	1.0	23.7%	20.7%	3.1%	2.9%	5.86	5.68	-0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	45	0	48	201	49	36	6	0%	1.1	24.1%	17.6%	6.5%	2.9%	5.46	5.27	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	SF	19	0	20	84	20	17	2	0%	1.1	23.7%	20.7%	3.1%	2.9%	5.86	5.68	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	30	0	32	135	33	24	4	0%	1.1	24.1%	17.6%	6.5%	2.9%	5.46	5.27	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	52	218	52	41	6	0%	1.1	24.0%	18.8%	5.1%	2.9%	5.62	5.05	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	158	23	0%	1.1	24.0%	18.8%	5.1%	2.9%	5.62	5.05	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		64	0	74	324	91	76	12	0%	1.2	28.1%	23.3%	4.8%	3.6%	4.74	5.67	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	0	200	876	246	204	32	0%	1.2	28.1%	23.3%	4.8%	3.6%	4.74	5.67	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marty Gair (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.32	23.2%	25.2%	2.9%	—	5.47	23.9%	4.8%	95	-0.85	—	—	—
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.65	25.3%	12.2%	161	-2.34	3.44	256	87
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.10	167	87
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	83
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	83
Jacob Wallace R 2022 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	24.6%	21.6%	3.4%	.237	4.27	22.9%	10.2%	153	-1.32	3.50	279	81
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	81
Luis Mora R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	24	SU	5.27	23.9%	22.7%	2.4%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	119	81
Zach Barnes R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	18.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.378	5.03	14.9%	1.5%	119	-0.32	4.90	145	80
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	79
Willian Suarez R 2021 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	20.4%	17.3%	3.0%	.329	5.13	25.4%	9.5%	128	-0.10	3.99	219	79
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	78
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	78
Junior Montero R 2022 · 5.31 FIP	23	SU	5.31	20.2%	23.9%	1.6%	.192	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	100	77
Alejandro Méndez R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	22	SU	5.85	20.6%	28.1%	1.7%	.211	5.17	15.0%	-6.0%	38	-0.67	4.65	136	77
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	77
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	77
Stephen Nogosek R 2018 · 5.74 FIP	23	SU	5.74	19.4%	18.6%	3.5%	.237	3.01	24.8%	12.8%	85	-2.73	2.56	419	77
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	76
Travis Kuhn R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	23	SU	5.96	22.0%	15.6%	5.0%	.246	3.43	20.6%	9.2%	168	-2.53	2.71	246	76
Vin Timpanelli R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	27.4%	19.9%	3.7%	.350	4.72	17.9%	4.0%	69	-0.63	4.01	162	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	37	23.8%	20.0%	1.12	5.75
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15