Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | A | West Virginia Power | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.8% | 23.1% | 7.7% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 3.42 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | West Virginia Power | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.8% | 23.1% | 7.7% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 3.60 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 0 | 34 | 152 | 46 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.0% | 15.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 3.93 | 6.49 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 0 | 34 | 152 | 46 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.3% | 11.2% | 19.1% | 3.9% | 3.93 | 4.18 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 50 | 0 | 59 | 260 | 71 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.1% | 14.8% | 7.3% | 1.7% | 4.10 | 4.04 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 50 | 0 | 59 | 260 | 71 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.3% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 1.2% | 4.10 | 3.13 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 49 | 0 | 55 | 229 | 51 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 1.5% | 3.13 | 3.73 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 49 | 0 | 55 | 229 | 51 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 0.9% | 3.13 | 2.92 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 44 | 0 | 54 | 239 | 64 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.7% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 0.8% | 3.33 | 2.81 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 44 | 0 | 54 | 239 | 64 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.8% | 7.9% | 18.8% | 0.4% | 3.33 | 2.03 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 1 | 53 | 241 | 43 | 27 | 8 | 3% | 1.4 | 13.9% | 11.6% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.78 | 5.48 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 1 | 53 | 241 | 43 | 27 | 8 | 3% | 1.4 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.98 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | DET | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 38 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 5.30 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 54 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 38 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.28 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 36 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 12.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.34 | 5.43 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.8% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.28 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 12.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.34 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 30 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.0% | 12.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.32 | 5.01 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 134 | 103 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 12.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.32 | 5.01 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 208 | 1 | 257 | 1134 | 222 | 138 | 28 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 3.89 | 4.34 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 162 | 1 | 200 | 882 | 173 | 108 | 22 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 3.89 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Travis Kuhn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.30 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 2.9% | — | 5.38 | 15.9% | 3.9% | 109 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 90 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 88 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 87 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 87 |
| Jose De La Torre R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 14.5% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .256 | 2.88 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 65 | -1.51 | 2.54 | 130 | 87 |
| Drew Hayes R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 13.8% | 10.1% | 1.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 117 | 87 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.23 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 3.92 | 14.1% | 5.5% | 68 | -1.31 | 3.92 | 256 | 86 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 84 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 84 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 84 |
| Wil Browning R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 84 |
| Eder Llamas R 2027 · 5.20 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.20 | 12.3% | 8.8% | 3.7% | .261 | 3.71 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 120 | -1.49 | 3.27 | 171 | 84 |
| Tyler Mizenko R 2024 · 5.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.20 | 13.3% | 10.2% | 3.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 104 | 84 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.15 | 15.9% | 13.8% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 237 | 84 |
| Collin Balester R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.25 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.40 | 21.2% | 15.4% | 43 | -0.85 | 3.40 | 116 | 84 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 83 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 16.9% | 15.7% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.63 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 181 | -0.94 | 2.96 | 230 | 83 |
| Kyle McMyne R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 12.5% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 181 | 82 |
| Jose Casilla R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 13.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 104 | 81 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.11 | 14.0% | 11.0% | 3.3% | .250 | 5.81 | 16.3% | 3.1% | 79 | +0.70 | 4.49 | 215 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 56 | 15.7% | 12.0% | 1.18 | 5.31 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |