Juan Arnaud

P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 164 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ANYM	32	40	4.02	3.22	26.5%	16.2%	—	K 19.6% · BB 19.1% · FIP 4.34
2025	22	MIX2 levels	35	48	3.40	2.47	26.7%	11.0%	—	K 19.5% · BB 11.7% · FIP 3.43
2026	23	A+NYM	46	52	2.79	4.26	30.6%	16.1%	—	K 23.5% · BB 18.5% · FIP 5.44
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYM	64	67	5.43	5.43	22.0%	17.1%	-0.7
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBNYM	28	29	5.19	5.10	22.5%	14.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBNYM	43	45	5.07	5.02	22.8%	14.4%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsCraig Schlitter (age 24) · Caleb Simpson (age 25) · Jacob Webb (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%22.0%

BB%17.1%

K-BB%4.9%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	18	1	31	158	34	30	3	6%	1.7	14.6%	23.7%	-9.1%	2.7%	5.87	6.33	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 2	18	1	31	158	34	30	3	6%	1.7	21.5%	19.0%	2.5%	1.9%	5.87	5.09	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	15	0	21	93	22	18	2	0%	1.4	16.1%	24.2%	-8.1%	2.9%	4.71	6.40	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	15	0	21	93	22	18	2	0%	1.4	23.7%	19.4%	4.3%	2.2%	4.71	4.81	—
2024	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	32	0	40	185	49	30	1	0%	1.3	19.6%	19.1%	0.5%	0.9%	4.02	4.34	—
2024	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	32	0	40	185	49	30	1	0%	1.3	19.6%	19.1%	0.5%	0.9%	4.02	4.34	—
2024	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	32	0	40	185	49	30	1	0%	1.3	26.5%	16.2%	10.3%	0.5%	4.02	3.22	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	48	210	56	23	1	0%	1.4	19.5%	11.7%	7.7%	0.9%	3.40	3.43	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	48	210	56	23	1	0%	1.4	19.5%	11.7%	7.7%	0.9%	3.40	3.43	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	48	210	56	23	1	0%	1.4	26.7%	11.0%	15.7%	0.5%	3.40	2.47	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	46	0	52	242	74	39	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	18.5%	5.0%	3.6%	2.79	5.44	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	46	0	52	242	74	39	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	18.5%	5.0%	3.6%	2.79	5.44	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	46	0	52	242	74	39	7	0%	1.1	30.6%	16.1%	14.5%	2.9%	2.79	4.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYM	64	0	67	283	62	48	8	0%	1.0	22.0%	17.1%	4.9%	3.0%	5.43	5.43	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	65	0	68	287	65	43	9	0%	1.0	22.5%	14.9%	7.6%	3.0%	5.19	5.10	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	65	0	68	287	65	41	9	0%	1.0	22.8%	14.4%	8.3%	3.0%	5.07	5.02	-0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	64	0	67	283	64	40	9	0%	1.0	22.8%	14.3%	8.5%	3.0%	5.03	5.02	-0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYM	62	0	65	274	62	39	9	0%	1.0	22.7%	14.3%	8.4%	3.1%	5.06	5.09	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	28	0	29	122	28	18	4	0%	1.0	22.5%	14.9%	7.6%	3.0%	5.19	5.10	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	43	0	45	190	43	27	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	14.4%	8.3%	3.0%	5.07	5.02	-0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	50	0	52	220	50	31	7	0%	1.0	22.8%	14.3%	8.5%	3.0%	5.03	5.02	-0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYM	52	0	55	232	53	33	7	0%	1.1	22.7%	14.3%	8.4%	3.1%	5.06	5.09	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	764	174	110	23	0%	1.1	22.7%	14.4%	8.3%	3.0%	5.07	4.68	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	122	25	0%	1.1	22.7%	14.4%	8.3%	3.0%	5.07	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		146	1	191	888	172	165	19	1%	1.3	19.4%	18.6%	0.8%	2.1%	3.90	4.99	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	1	200	928	180	172	20	1%	1.3	19.4%	18.6%	0.8%	2.1%	3.90	4.99	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Arnaud (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.43	22.0%	17.1%	3.0%	—	5.05	22.7%	8.2%	203	-0.38	—	—	—
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	91
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	90
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.54	19.0%	8.4%	155	-0.01	3.33	268	88
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	88
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	88
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	87
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	87
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	86
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	86
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	86
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	86
Antonio Knowles R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	20.9%	15.1%	2.4%	.250	3.28	20.9%	11.7%	66	-1.30	3.24	223	86
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	85
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	85
Josh Graham R 2018 · 4.80 FIP	24	SU	4.80	20.4%	15.1%	2.8%	.327	4.35	18.0%	10.1%	70	-0.45	2.15	254	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	84
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	84
Bryce McGowan R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	24	SU	5.11	19.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.304	3.71	18.8%	6.7%	55	-1.40	3.71	178	84
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	22.6%	15.0%	1.17	5.16
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*