Bradgley Rodriguez
P
San Diego Padres
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 160 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.4 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 50 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8677vR 68
ERA3.80
FIP3.80
K%22.5%
BB%11.5%
K-BB%11.0%
ROS IP50
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9098.1
Whiff%
p7429.0%
K%
p5022.2%
xwOBA vs
p900.237
CH+3.4 (41%)
FB (50%)
CT (7%)
SI (27%)
SL (1%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres | 10 | 3 | 25 | 107 | 27 | 16 | 3 | 30% | 2.5 | 17.2% | 18.7% | -1.5% | 2.8% | 6.20 | 5.56 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres | 10 | 3 | 25 | 107 | 27 | 16 | 3 | 30% | 2.5 | 25.2% | 15.0% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 6.20 | 4.44 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 61 | 254 | 75 | 31 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.0% | 14.5% | 7.5% | 1.3% | 2.64 | 3.79 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 61 | 254 | 75 | 31 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.5% | 12.2% | 17.3% | 0.8% | 2.64 | 2.59 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 44 | 181 | 47 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 0.9% | 2.84 | 3.27 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 44 | 181 | 47 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 9.9% | 16.0% | 0.6% | 2.84 | 2.49 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 38 | 3 | 41 | 170 | 38 | 13 | 2 | 8% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 14.4% | 1.2% | 2.18 | 2.87 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | SD | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 47 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 2.1% | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | SD | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 48 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 2.0% | 3.76 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | SD | — | — | 91 | 380 | 85 | 37 | 6 | — | — | 22.4% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 1.7% | 3.06 | 3.38 | +1.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | SD | — | — | 90 | 380 | 85 | 37 | 6 | — | — | 22.4% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 1.6% | 3.08 | 3.34 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | SD | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 98 | 42 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 10.6% | 14.3% | 2.1% | 4.01 | 3.89 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | SD | 91 | 0 | 96 | 404 | 106 | 41 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 10.1% | 16.1% | 2.2% | 3.86 | 3.73 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | SD | 92 | 0 | 97 | 409 | 110 | 40 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 9.8% | 17.1% | 2.2% | 3.75 | 3.66 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | SD | 92 | 0 | 97 | 409 | 111 | 40 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 9.7% | 17.5% | 2.2% | 3.68 | 3.63 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | SD | 91 | 0 | 95 | 403 | 110 | 39 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.2% | 9.8% | 17.4% | 2.3% | 3.67 | 3.67 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | SD | 88 | 0 | 92 | 391 | 106 | 39 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.1% | 10.0% | 17.2% | 2.4% | 3.72 | 3.75 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | SD | 84 | 0 | 88 | 373 | 100 | 38 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 10.2% | 16.7% | 2.5% | 3.82 | 3.88 | +1.3 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | SD | 79 | 0 | 83 | 350 | 93 | 37 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 10.5% | 16.0% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 4.06 | +1.0 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | SD | 74 | 0 | 77 | 327 | 92 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.1% | 10.0% | 18.1% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 3.99 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | SD | 68 | 0 | 72 | 302 | 84 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.7% | 10.4% | 17.2% | 3.2% | 4.12 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | SD | 85 | 0 | 89 | 376 | 94 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 10.6% | 14.3% | 2.1% | 3.97 | 3.85 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | SD | 87 | 0 | 91 | 384 | 101 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 10.1% | 16.1% | 2.1% | 3.82 | 3.69 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | SD | 88 | 0 | 92 | 388 | 104 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.9% | 9.8% | 17.1% | 2.1% | 3.71 | 3.62 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | SD | 88 | 0 | 92 | 388 | 106 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.2% | 9.7% | 17.5% | 2.1% | 3.64 | 3.59 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | SD | 87 | 0 | 91 | 384 | 105 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.2% | 9.8% | 17.4% | 2.2% | 3.63 | 3.63 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | SD | 84 | 0 | 88 | 372 | 101 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.1% | 10.0% | 17.2% | 2.3% | 3.67 | 3.70 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | SD | 80 | 0 | 84 | 355 | 95 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 10.2% | 16.7% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 3.83 | +1.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | SD | 75 | 0 | 79 | 334 | 88 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 10.5% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 3.91 | 4.01 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | SD | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 88 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.1% | 10.0% | 18.1% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.93 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | SD | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 79 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 10.4% | 17.2% | 3.1% | 4.06 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 898 | 3 | 944 | 3982 | 1052 | 400 | 90 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.4% | 10.1% | 16.4% | 2.3% | 3.71 | 3.38 | +22.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 1 | 200 | 843 | 223 | 85 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.4% | 10.1% | 16.4% | 2.3% | 3.71 | 3.38 | +4.7 | ||
| Career | — | 133 | 6 | 172 | 712 | 150 | 91 | 10 | 5% | 1.3 | 21.0% | 12.7% | 8.3% | 1.4% | 3.09 | 3.70 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 155 | 7 | 200 | 830 | 174 | 106 | 12 | 5% | 1.3 | 21.0% | 12.7% | 8.3% | 1.4% | 3.09 | 3.70 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bradgley Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 22.8% | 13.4% | 2.4% | — | 3.76 | 26.0% | 15.8% | 286 | -0.80 | — | — | — |
| Victor Vodnik R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.87 | 24.0% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .343 | 3.49 | 22.9% | 10.8% | 171 | -0.38 | 3.21 | 328 | 82 |
| Seth Halvorsen R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 21.0% | 12.5% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.34 | 21.8% | 9.6% | 75 | +0.43 | 3.91 | 111 | 82 |
| Dylan Coleman R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.16 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 3.12 | 29.1% | 17.9% | 126 | -1.04 | 2.54 | 280 | 81 |
| Bruce Rondón R 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 2.2% | .336 | 3.42 | 26.7% | 14.0% | 140 | -0.42 | 3.31 | 184 | 80 |
| Caleb Freeman R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.98 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .267 | 5.17 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 58 | +1.19 | 3.98 | 222 | 78 |
| Peyton Williams R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 77 |
| Mason Fox R 2025 · 3.59 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.59 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .260 | 7.31 | 21.3% | 4.8% | 30 | +3.72 | 3.59 | 112 | 77 |
| Jacob Rhame R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.93 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .240 | 3.57 | 24.4% | 17.8% | 182 | -0.36 | 2.58 | 251 | 77 |
| Tayron Guerrero R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 20.9% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .260 | 4.30 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 139 | +0.14 | 2.18 | 355 | 76 |
| Tyler Bashlor R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.63 | 23.3% | 15.3% | 1.0% | .280 | 4.13 | 24.0% | 12.0% | 165 | +0.50 | 2.59 | 253 | 76 |
| Jacob Bodner R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.40 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .281 | 3.50 | 22.1% | 12.4% | 98 | +0.10 | 3.16 | 124 | 76 |
| Will Kincanon R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.72 | 20.2% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.67 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 58 | -0.05 | 3.67 | 122 | 76 |
| Joey Stock R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.38 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .275 | 5.22 | 22.5% | 6.8% | 95 | +1.84 | 3.38 | 121 | 76 |
| Cole Gordon R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 76 |
| Hunter Dula R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 1.9% | .340 | 4.49 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 91 | +0.64 | 3.85 | 132 | 75 |
| Dominic Leone R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.80 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .286 | 3.48 | 24.9% | 18.1% | 156 | -0.32 | 2.74 | 447 | 75 |
| Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 75 |
| Michael Gomez R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 75 |
| Jimmy Cordero R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .258 | 4.23 | 16.0% | 4.1% | 129 | +0.55 | 2.59 | 365 | 75 |
| Brandyn Sittinger R 2027 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.67 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 3.1% | .324 | 4.02 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 72 | -0.65 | 3.50 | 152 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 89 | 26.5% | 10.4% | 0.94 | 3.91 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |
| Garrett Richards ('22) | 7 | 82 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 0.98 | 3.95 |
| Carlos Martinez ('21) | 7 | 121 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 0.81 | 3.67 |
| Brad Hand ('23) | 9 | 64 | 27.2% | 8.6% | 0.89 | 3.53 |
| Matt Barnes ('23) | 9 | 49 | 29.6% | 10.8% | 1.03 | 4.14 |