Bradgley Rodriguez

P San Diego Padres

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX3 levels	45	0	61	2.64	2.59	29.5%	12.2%	—	K 22.0% · BB 14.5% · FIP 3.72
2025	21	MIX3 levels	40	0	44	2.84	2.49	26.0%	9.9%	1.1	K 20.8% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.11
2026	22	MIX2 levels	69	4	75	2.16	2.71	27.0%	6.2%	1.7	K 26.9% · BB 6.3% · FIP 2.69
2027PROJ	23	MLBSD	48	0	50	3.20	3.28	29.3%	7.9%	0.8
2028PROJ88% MLB	24	MLBSD	51	0	54	3.32	3.32	29.3%	7.8%	0.8
2029PROJ91% MLB	25	MLBSD	42	0	44	3.36	3.33	29.2%	7.8%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.116First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$3M2031Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs90

K%75

Form1.95 ERA (proj 3.20) · K 31.8% (proj 29.3%) · BB 3.7% (proj 7.9%) ▲▲ last 90d · 28 IP through Oct 27

CompsDaniel Bard (age 24) · Franco Aleman (age 23) · Reyes Moronta (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8274vR 65

ERA3.20

FIP3.28

K%29.3%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%21.4%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.3

Whiff%

p8130.1%

p7526.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.239

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.116 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$13M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	10	3	25	107	27	16	3	30%	2.5	17.2%	18.7%	-1.5%	3.3%	6.20	5.82	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	10	3	25	107	27	16	3	30%	2.5	25.2%	15.0%	10.3%	2.8%	6.20	4.44	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	61	254	75	31	2	0%	1.4	22.0%	14.5%	7.5%	1.2%	2.64	3.72	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	61	254	75	31	2	0%	1.4	22.0%	14.5%	7.5%	1.2%	2.64	3.72	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	61	254	75	31	2	0%	1.4	29.5%	12.2%	17.3%	0.8%	2.64	2.59	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	44	181	47	18	1	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.3%	10.5%	0.8%	2.84	3.11	+0.8
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	44	181	47	18	1	0%	1.1	20.8%	10.3%	10.5%	0.8%	2.84	3.11	+0.8
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	44	181	47	18	1	0%	1.1	26.0%	9.9%	16.0%	0.6%	2.84	2.49	+1.1
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	69	4	75	304	82	19	6	6%	1.1	26.9%	6.3%	20.6%	1.9%	2.16	2.69	+1.7
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	69	4	75	304	82	19	6	6%	1.1	26.9%	6.3%	20.6%	1.9%	2.16	2.69	+1.7
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	69	4	75	304	82	19	6	6%	1.1	27.0%	6.2%	20.7%	2.0%	2.16	2.71	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			75	4	82	332	90	21	6	5%	1.1	27.1%	6.3%	20.8%	1.8%	2.09	2.62	+1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	SD	48	0	50	211	62	17	5	0%	1.0	29.3%	7.9%	21.4%	2.3%	3.20	3.28	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SD	58	0	61	258	75	20	6	0%	1.1	29.3%	7.8%	21.5%	2.3%	3.29	3.29	+1.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	SD	46	0	48	205	60	16	5	0%	1.1	29.2%	7.8%	21.5%	2.4%	3.33	3.30	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	SD	45	0	47	199	58	16	5	0%	1.0	29.2%	7.8%	21.4%	2.4%	3.35	3.33	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	SD	43	0	45	190	55	15	5	0%	1.0	29.0%	7.9%	21.1%	2.5%	3.39	3.39	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	SD	40	0	42	178	51	14	5	0%	1.1	28.9%	8.1%	20.8%	2.6%	3.44	3.48	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	SD	35	0	37	155	44	13	4	0%	1.1	28.3%	8.3%	20.0%	2.7%	3.56	3.64	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	SD	51	0	54	228	67	18	5	0%	1.1	29.3%	7.8%	21.5%	2.4%	3.32	3.32	+0.8
2029	25	MLB CTX	SD	42	0	44	186	54	14	5	0%	1.0	29.2%	7.8%	21.5%	2.4%	3.36	3.33	+0.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	SD	42	0	44	186	54	15	5	0%	1.0	29.2%	7.8%	21.4%	2.5%	3.38	3.36	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	SD	40	0	42	177	51	14	5	0%	1.1	29.0%	7.9%	21.1%	2.5%	3.42	3.42	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	SD	38	0	40	169	49	14	4	0%	1.1	28.9%	8.1%	20.8%	2.6%	3.48	3.52	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	SD	33	0	35	148	42	12	4	0%	1.1	28.3%	8.3%	20.0%	2.8%	3.60	3.68	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		321	4	340	1424	407	108	34	1%	1.1	28.6%	7.6%	21.0%	2.4%	3.10	2.94	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	2	200	837	239	63	20	1%	1.1	28.6%	7.6%	21.0%	2.4%	3.10	2.94	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		164	7	205	846	194	95	14	4%	1.3	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	1.6%	2.94	3.49	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	7	200	824	189	92	14	4%	1.3	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	1.6%	2.94	3.49	+3.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 22 IPFIP 1.49 → 2.28 (+0.79)K% 34.8% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.83%	—	×0.810	28.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.62%	—	×1.100	6.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷0.950	×1.200	1.42%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 1.49 → 2.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 14 IPFIP 4.42 → 4.32 (−0.09)K% 11.5% → 9.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.48%	—	×0.860	9.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.03%	—	×0.900	16.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.981	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 4.42 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 42 IPFIP 3.22 → 4.20 (+0.98)K% 25.7% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.71%	—	×0.770	19.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.14%	—	×1.150	15.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷0.916	×1.250	1.56%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 3.22 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASan Antonio Missions · 14 IPFIP 1.62 → 2.33 (+0.71)K% 35.0% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.00%	—	×0.810	28.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.67%	—	×1.100	12.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.953	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.62 → 2.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Padres · 25 IPFIP 4.40 → 5.82 (+1.41)K% 25.2% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.23%	—	×0.680	17.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.95%	—	×1.250	18.69%
HR / BF /BF	2.80%	÷1.199	×1.400	3.27%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 140).

Result: FIP 4.40 → 5.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bradgley Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.3%	—	3.31	29.2%	21.4%	157	+0.03	—	—	—
Daniel Bard R 2009 · 3.02 FIP	24	SU	3.02	29.7%	9.0%	2.4%	.288	3.79	22.3%	12.0%	207	+0.77	2.56	456	85
Franco Aleman R 2023 · 2.92 FIP	23	SU	2.92	28.4%	8.8%	2.0%	.315	2.88	29.9%	20.4%	116	-0.04	2.28	226	80
Reyes Moronta R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	23	SU	3.70	29.5%	9.5%	3.5%	.293	3.33	28.2%	15.1%	157	-0.37	3.06	361	79
Diego Castillo R 2017 · 2.38 FIP	23	SU	2.38	26.2%	6.9%	1.1%	.302	3.23	28.3%	19.9%	173	+0.85	2.38	524	79
Hansel Robles R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	24	SU	3.75	28.1%	7.8%	3.7%	.221	4.18	24.0%	13.5%	214	+0.43	2.67	469	79
Seranthony Domínguez R 2018 · 2.38 FIP	23	SU	2.38	32.0%	8.7%	1.6%	.211	3.73	25.0%	13.3%	37	+1.35	2.38	490	78
Jonathan Broxton R 2007 · 2.42 FIP	23	SU	2.42	29.6%	6.6%	1.8%	.304	2.09	32.3%	23.8%	207	-0.33	1.81	676	78
Zack Weiss R 2015 · 3.27 FIP	23	SU	3.27	27.1%	7.0%	2.9%	.299	4.43	22.5%	8.0%	39	+1.16	3.05	368	78
Nick Mears R 2019 · 3.46 FIP	22	SU	3.46	26.9%	8.4%	2.9%	.279	4.60	23.3%	9.9%	67	+1.14	3.19	273	78
Evan Phillips R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	23	SU	3.47	27.3%	9.9%	2.6%	.268	3.55	25.6%	13.9%	124	+0.08	1.52	522	76
Matt Cooper R 2015 · 2.44 FIP	23	SU	2.44	28.3%	7.0%	1.5%	.264	3.21	22.2%	14.1%	191	+0.77	2.44	243	75
Luis Guerrero R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	23	SU	3.75	28.4%	12.1%	2.8%	.270	6.46	17.2%	3.0%	92	+2.71	2.88	232	74
Joe Jiménez R 2018 · 2.61 FIP	23	SU	2.61	29.2%	7.1%	2.0%	.291	4.71	28.4%	17.6%	128	+2.10	1.90	513	74
Geoff Broussard R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	24	SU	3.25	30.8%	8.3%	3.1%	.286	4.90	17.2%	8.7%	107	+1.65	3.25	152	74
Jake Smith R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	25	SU	3.11	28.1%	7.5%	2.6%	.243	4.69	19.3%	-1.7%	26	+1.58	3.11	110	74
Bobby Jenks R 2005 · 2.47 FIP	24	SU	2.47	29.8%	7.1%	1.8%	.301	2.62	21.8%	16.5%	196	+0.15	2.10	357	73
Brendan McCurry R 2015 · 2.53 FIP	23	SU	2.53	26.1%	6.9%	1.4%	.241	3.12	23.2%	17.4%	190	+0.59	2.53	308	73
Carlos Estévez R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	23	SU	3.50	24.0%	9.8%	2.2%	.280	3.63	24.0%	16.3%	166	+0.13	2.48	603	73
Kelvin Herrera R 2013 · 3.71 FIP	23	SU	3.71	30.2%	7.8%	4.0%	.273	2.73	24.6%	17.3%	212	-0.98	2.33	509	73
Mat Olsen R 2023 · 3.24 FIP	23	SU	3.24	26.8%	7.9%	2.6%	.360	3.58	16.1%	6.6%	47	+0.34	2.68	161	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	53	28.7%	7.7%	0.90	3.11
Rafael Soriano ('15)	3.2	64	24.9%	7.7%	0.88	2.89
Keone Kela ('21)	1.1	45	29.9%	9.2%	1.03	3.33
Kelvin Herrera ('20)	2.6	64	23.8%	7.5%	0.88	3.21
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*
Jeff Montgomery ('87-'99, 19 WAR*)	4.3	72	26.2%*	7.6%*	1.01*	3.16*