Bradgley Rodriguez
P
San Diego Padres
+0.3
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 160 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.5 · 2028
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
xFIP3.16
SIERA2.82
K%21.9%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%10.8%
IP37
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2028
OFP—50
K†5060
CH+3.4 (43%)
FB (46%)
CT (11%)
SI (25%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres | 10 | 3 | 25 | 107 | 27 | 16 | 3 | 17.2% | 18.7% | 3.1% | 6.20 | 5.70 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 20 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 45 | 0 | 61 | 254 | 75 | 31 | 2 | 22.0% | 14.5% | 1.1% | 2.64 | 3.71 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 21 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 40 | 0 | 44 | 181 | 47 | 18 | 1 | 20.8% | 11.4% | 0.9% | 2.84 | 3.25 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 8 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 10 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.93 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | SD | 27 | — | 27 | 114 | 25 | 13 | 3 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | SD | — | — | 37 | 154 | 35 | 15 | 3 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 1.8% | 3.46 | 3.22 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | SD | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 37 | 16 | 4 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 4.06 | 4.00 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | SD | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 39 | 15 | 4 | 23.8% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 3.97 | 3.90 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | SD | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 40 | 15 | 4 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.3% | 3.91 | 3.85 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | SD | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 41 | 15 | 4 | 24.3% | 8.9% | 2.3% | 3.87 | 3.84 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | SD | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 40 | 15 | 4 | 24.4% | 9.0% | 2.4% | 3.86 | 3.85 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | SD | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 40 | 15 | 4 | 24.3% | 9.0% | 2.4% | 3.87 | 3.88 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | SD | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 38 | 14 | 4 | 24.2% | 9.1% | 2.4% | 3.90 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | SD | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 37 | 14 | 4 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 3.95 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | SD | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.02 | 4.06 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | SD | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 23.5% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 4.10 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | SD | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | SD | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | SD | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 103 | 3 | 140 | 582 | 122 | 79 | 8 | 21.0% | 13.7% | 1.3% | 3.21 | 3.79 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 147 | 4 | 200 | 831 | 174 | 113 | 11 | 21.0% | 13.7% | 1.3% | 3.21 | 3.79 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bradgley Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 2.4% | — | 3.92 | 23.8% | 14.5% | 116 | -0.45 | — | — | — |
| Dylan Coleman R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.16 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 3.08 | 29.1% | 17.9% | 126 | -1.08 | 2.52 | 259 | 83 |
| Gus Varland R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.26 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .294 | 5.73 | 18.1% | 5.7% | 105 | +1.47 | 2.40 | 272 | 80 |
| Victor Vodnik R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.84 | 24.0% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .343 | 3.68 | 22.9% | 10.8% | 171 | -0.16 | 3.13 | 300 | 79 |
| Dominic Leone R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.91 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 1.7% | .286 | 3.50 | 24.9% | 18.1% | 156 | -0.41 | 2.75 | 447 | 79 |
| Isaiah Campbell R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.19 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .220 | 3.50 | 25.4% | 17.1% | 115 | -0.69 | 3.29 | 192 | 79 |
| Geoff Hartlieb R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.87 | 15.9% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .287 | 3.68 | 20.7% | 11.7% | 197 | -1.19 | 3.13 | 494 | 79 |
| Bruce Rondón R 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.79 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .336 | 3.35 | 26.7% | 14.0% | 140 | -0.44 | 3.30 | 184 | 78 |
| Clarke Schmidt R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.53 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.27 | 21.3% | 13.1% | 108 | -0.26 | 2.78 | 537 | 78 |
| Brandyn Sittinger R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.38 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 2.6% | .324 | 3.97 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 72 | -0.41 | 3.54 | 152 | 77 |
| Glenn Sparkman R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.73 | 20.0% | 11.6% | 1.5% | .296 | 3.69 | 15.9% | 10.9% | 207 | -0.04 | 3.55 | 363 | 77 |
| Luis Frías R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.81 | 18.8% | 12.4% | 1.3% | .292 | 4.43 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 165 | +0.62 | 3.41 | 414 | 77 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 77 |
| Andrew Bash R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.87 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 2.1% | .273 | 4.22 | 14.9% | 4.8% | 146 | +0.35 | 3.63 | 428 | 77 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 77 |
| Mason Fox R 2025 · 3.59 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.59 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .260 | 6.61 | 21.3% | 4.8% | 30 | +3.02 | 3.59 | 112 | 77 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.31 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 3.86 | 20.9% | 11.1% | 236 | -0.45 | 2.32 | 421 | 77 |
| Jacob Bodner R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.40 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .281 | 3.32 | 22.1% | 12.4% | 98 | -0.08 | 2.88 | 124 | 77 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 76 |
| Peyton Williams R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 76 |
| Joey Stock R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.48 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .275 | 5.00 | 22.5% | 6.8% | 95 | +1.52 | 3.48 | 121 | 76 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.116 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.4M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $5M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $9M | $11M | +$3M | ||