Bradgley Rodriguez

Bradgley Rodriguez P San Diego Padres

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8274vR 66

ERA3.46

FIP3.46

K%25.2%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%15.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF6065

CTRL4550

CMD3540

K†5565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.2

Whiff%

p8030.0%

p7727.1%

xwOBA vs

p900.231

CH+3.4 (43%)

FB (51%)

CT (4%)

SI (25%)

SL (2%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.116 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.6M	+$0.5M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+1.2	$8M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+1.2	$7M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$9M	+1.1	$6M	+$0.8M
Totals		$21M		$36M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	10	3	25	107	27	16	3	30%	2.5	17.2%	18.7%	-1.5%	3.3%	6.20	5.82	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	10	3	25	107	27	16	3	30%	2.5	25.2%	15.0%	10.3%	2.8%	6.20	4.44	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	61	254	75	31	2	0%	1.4	22.0%	14.5%	7.5%	1.2%	2.64	3.72	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	61	254	75	31	2	0%	1.4	22.0%	14.5%	7.5%	1.2%	2.64	3.72	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	61	254	75	31	2	0%	1.4	29.5%	12.2%	17.3%	0.8%	2.64	2.59	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	44	181	47	18	1	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.3%	10.3%	0.8%	2.84	3.12	+0.8
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	44	181	47	18	1	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.3%	10.3%	0.8%	2.84	3.12	+0.8
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	44	181	47	18	1	0%	1.1	26.0%	9.9%	16.0%	0.6%	2.84	2.49	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			70	4	74	304	83	19	5	6%	1.1	27.3%	6.2%	21.1%	1.6%	2.19	2.51	+1.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	64	4	67	276	75	17	5	6%	1.1	27.1%	6.2%	20.9%	1.8%	2.27	2.58	+1.6
YTD	22	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	64	4	67	276	75	17	5	6%	1.1	27.1%	6.2%	20.9%	1.8%	2.27	2.58	+1.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	SD	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2026	22	MLB RAW	SD	63	4	66	273	74	17	5	6%	1.1	27.1%	6.2%	20.9%	1.8%	2.31	2.61	+1.5
SO FAR	22	MLB RAW	SD	63	4	66	273	74	17	5	6%	1.1	27.1%	6.2%	20.9%	1.8%	2.31	2.61	+1.5
ROS	22	MLB MLE	SD	6	0	6	27	7	3	1	0%	1.1	25.2%	9.7%	15.5%	2.3%	3.46	3.46	+0.1
ROS	22	MLB CTX	SD	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	25.2%	9.7%	15.5%	2.3%	3.49	3.49	+0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	74	303	82	20	6	—	—	27.0%	6.5%	20.5%	1.9%	2.37	2.66	+1.9
FULL	22	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	73	307	82	20	6	—	—	26.6%	6.4%	20.3%	1.8%	2.41	2.67	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SD	89	0	93	394	103	36	9	0%	1.0	26.2%	9.2%	17.0%	2.2%	3.74	3.65	+1.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	SD	91	0	96	404	109	36	9	0%	1.1	27.0%	8.9%	18.1%	2.2%	3.65	3.56	+1.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	SD	92	0	97	409	112	36	9	0%	1.1	27.4%	8.7%	18.7%	2.3%	3.58	3.51	+1.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	SD	92	0	97	409	113	35	9	0%	1.1	27.6%	8.6%	19.0%	2.3%	3.54	3.50	+1.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	SD	91	0	95	403	111	35	9	0%	1.0	27.6%	8.7%	18.9%	2.3%	3.54	3.53	+1.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	SD	88	0	92	391	107	35	10	0%	1.1	27.5%	8.9%	18.6%	2.4%	3.59	3.62	+1.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	SD	84	0	88	373	102	34	10	0%	1.1	27.2%	9.1%	18.1%	2.6%	3.69	3.75	+0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	SD	79	0	83	350	94	33	10	0%	1.1	26.9%	9.4%	17.5%	2.8%	3.83	3.93	+0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	SD	74	0	77	327	93	29	10	0%	1.0	28.5%	8.9%	19.5%	3.0%	3.85	3.86	+0.6
2036	32	MLB MLE	SD	68	0	72	302	85	28	10	0%	1.1	28.0%	9.3%	18.7%	3.3%	3.99	4.08	+0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	SD	85	0	89	376	99	35	9	0%	1.0	26.2%	9.2%	17.0%	2.3%	3.77	3.68	+1.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	SD	87	0	91	384	104	34	9	0%	1.0	27.0%	8.9%	18.1%	2.3%	3.68	3.59	+1.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	SD	88	0	92	388	107	34	9	0%	1.0	27.4%	8.7%	18.7%	2.3%	3.61	3.54	+1.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	SD	88	0	92	388	107	34	9	0%	1.0	27.6%	8.6%	19.0%	2.3%	3.57	3.53	+1.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	SD	87	0	91	384	106	34	9	0%	1.0	27.6%	8.7%	18.9%	2.4%	3.57	3.56	+1.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	SD	84	0	88	372	102	33	9	0%	1.0	27.5%	8.9%	18.6%	2.5%	3.62	3.65	+1.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	SD	80	0	84	355	97	32	9	0%	1.1	27.2%	9.1%	18.1%	2.6%	3.73	3.79	+0.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	SD	75	0	79	334	90	31	10	0%	1.1	26.9%	9.4%	17.5%	2.9%	3.87	3.97	+0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	SD	70	0	74	312	89	28	10	0%	1.1	28.5%	8.9%	19.5%	3.1%	3.89	3.90	+0.6
2036	32	MLB CTX	SD	65	0	68	287	81	27	10	0%	1.0	28.0%	9.3%	18.7%	3.3%	4.03	4.12	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		882	4	927	3905	1068	342	98	0%	1.1	27.4%	8.8%	18.6%	2.5%	3.60	3.27	+14.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	1	200	843	230	74	21	0%	1.1	27.4%	8.8%	18.6%	2.5%	3.60	3.27	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		159	7	198	818	186	93	13	4%	1.2	22.8%	11.3%	11.4%	1.6%	3.01	3.48	+11.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	7	200	828	189	94	13	4%	1.2	22.8%	11.3%	11.4%	1.6%	3.01	3.48	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bradgley Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	22.5%	12.5%	2.4%	—	3.57	26.9%	18.0%	286	-0.89	—	—	—
Nick Mears R 2019 · 3.46 FIP	22	SU	3.46	26.9%	8.4%	2.9%	.279	4.60	23.3%	9.9%	67	+1.14	3.19	273	83
Javy Guerra R 2019 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	26.8%	8.7%	4.2%	.306	3.42	21.9%	12.0%	73	-0.83	3.33	183	81
Bruce Rondón R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	24	SU	3.77	23.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.336	3.39	26.7%	14.0%	140	-0.38	3.31	184	78
Jacob Rhame R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	22	SU	3.98	23.0%	9.9%	2.9%	.240	3.61	24.4%	17.8%	182	-0.37	2.78	251	77
Victor Vodnik R 2022 · 3.85 FIP	22	SU	3.85	24.0%	13.9%	1.8%	.343	3.59	22.9%	10.8%	171	-0.26	3.14	351	77
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	76
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	76
Joe Jiménez R 2017 · 3.71 FIP	22	SU	3.71	24.2%	9.7%	2.6%	.363	3.87	29.2%	21.6%	145	+0.16	1.90	513	76
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	75
Alex Hoppe R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	23.7%	9.2%	3.5%	.371	3.94	20.7%	8.7%	184	-0.27	3.13	233	75
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	75
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	75
Justin Yeager R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	26.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.281	3.96	25.4%	12.6%	103	+0.37	3.32	262	74
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	74
J.B. Wendelken R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	23.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.288	3.85	27.2%	16.4%	124	+0.46	3.08	393	74
Nick Robertson R 2021 · 3.75 FIP	23	SU	3.75	20.9%	7.7%	2.6%	.314	4.02	23.5%	14.5%	170	+0.27	3.11	337	74
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	74
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	74
Donovan Benoit R 2022 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	74
Joey Krehbiel R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	22	SU	3.82	25.8%	11.2%	2.7%	.306	3.74	24.8%	13.8%	168	-0.08	3.34	556	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	89	26.9%	9.3%	0.97	3.76
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45