Mat Olsen — OGILVIE

Mat Olsen P ACL Giants

Age 26 RHP 5'11" / 185 lbs ROK

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%20.1%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	3	0	3	9	5	0	0	0%	1.0	55.6%	0.0%	55.6%	0.0%	0.00	-1.59	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	3	0	3	9	5	0	0	0%	1.0	55.6%	0.0%	55.6%	0.0%	0.00	-0.23	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	58	255	83	25	1	0%	1.6	24.8%	11.3%	13.5%	0.4%	3.41	2.68	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	58	255	83	25	1	0%	1.6	32.5%	9.8%	22.7%	0.4%	3.41	1.76	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	56	245	84	17	5	0%	1.4	26.8%	7.9%	18.9%	2.6%	5.14	3.24	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	56	245	84	17	5	0%	1.4	26.8%	7.9%	18.9%	2.6%	5.14	3.24	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	56	245	84	17	5	0%	1.4	34.3%	6.9%	27.3%	2.0%	5.14	2.17	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	35	0	47	196	39	17	2	0%	1.3	16.1%	9.5%	6.6%	1.2%	4.02	3.58	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	35	0	47	196	39	17	2	0%	1.3	16.1%	9.5%	6.6%	1.2%	4.02	3.58	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	35	0	47	196	39	17	2	0%	1.3	19.9%	8.7%	11.2%	1.0%	4.02	3.08	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	9	37	7	3	0	0%	1.2	18.9%	8.1%	10.8%	0.0%	6.23	2.53	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	9	37	7	3	0	0%	1.2	18.9%	8.1%	10.8%	0.0%	6.23	2.53	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	9	37	7	3	0	0%	1.2	18.9%	8.1%	10.8%	0.0%	6.23	2.52	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	SF	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	20.1%	9.1%	11.0%	2.8%	4.47	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SF	40	0	42	176	36	16	5	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.2%	11.2%	2.9%	4.48	4.49	+0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	SF	14	0	15	63	13	6	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.2%	11.2%	2.9%	4.48	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	64	13	6	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.2%	11.2%	2.9%	4.48	4.11	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	79	26	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.2%	11.2%	2.9%	4.48	4.11	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		122	0	173	742	173	70	10	0%	1.4	23.3%	9.4%	13.8%	1.3%	4.22	3.05	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	0	200	859	200	81	11	0%	1.4	23.3%	9.4%	13.8%	1.3%	4.22	3.05	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mat Olsen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	20.1%	9.1%	2.8%	—	4.49	20.4%	11.2%	42	+0.02	—	—	—
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	88
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	88
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	86
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	86
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	86
Cole Johnson R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.4%	1.5%	.311	3.61	14.0%	9.2%	49	+0.09	3.52	101	86
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	86
Shawn Armstrong R 2017 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	22.1%	9.2%	3.3%	.282	3.18	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.03	1.79	651	86
Carlos Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	26	SU	3.78	18.2%	8.7%	2.0%	.266	4.37	14.3%	2.3%	36	+0.59	3.75	154	85
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	85
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	85
Kyle Winkler R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	26	SU	3.70	23.1%	8.7%	2.6%	.234	3.53	18.4%	8.3%	43	-0.17	2.97	114	84
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	84
Seth Frankoff R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	26	SU	4.01	19.6%	7.4%	2.9%	.312	4.29	20.0%	11.3%	177	+0.28	2.88	263	84
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	84
Esmerling De La Rosa R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	26	SU	3.40	20.5%	7.2%	2.0%	.313	4.86	14.1%	5.8%	66	+1.46	2.89	237	84
Josh Martin R 2016 · 3.38 FIP	26	SU	3.38	19.1%	8.7%	1.4%	.279	4.06	21.5%	10.2%	92	+0.68	2.41	225	84
Sean Donatello R 2017 · 3.64 FIP	26	SU	3.64	17.8%	7.4%	2.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	141	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	20.3%	9.1%	1.10	4.48
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38