Mat Olsen
P
ACL Giants
Age 26
RHP
5'11" / 185 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
K%22.1%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP29
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 55.6% | 0.0% | 55.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -1.59 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 55.6% | 0.0% | 55.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.23 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 58 | 255 | 83 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 13.5% | 0.4% | 3.41 | 2.66 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 58 | 255 | 83 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 32.5% | 9.8% | 22.7% | 0.4% | 3.41 | 1.76 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 56 | 245 | 84 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.8% | 7.9% | 18.9% | 2.7% | 5.14 | 3.31 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 56 | 245 | 84 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 34.3% | 6.9% | 27.3% | 2.0% | 5.14 | 2.17 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 35 | 0 | 47 | 196 | 39 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 1.1% | 4.02 | 3.55 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 35 | 0 | 47 | 196 | 39 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.9% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 1.0% | 4.02 | 3.08 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 6.23 | 2.53 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 6.23 | 2.52 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | SF | 28 | 0 | 29 | 124 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SF | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SF | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 3.97 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 76 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 3.97 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 122 | 0 | 173 | 742 | 173 | 70 | 10 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 1.3% | 4.22 | 3.05 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 0 | 200 | 859 | 200 | 81 | 11 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 1.3% | 4.22 | 3.05 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mat Olsen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.35 | 22.2% | 13.0% | 29 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 91 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 90 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 88 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .282 | 3.23 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -0.88 | 1.79 | 647 | 87 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.07 | 2.96 | 114 | 87 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 87 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 86 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 86 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 86 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 85 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 85 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 85 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 85 |
| Jeff Johnson R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.12 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 1.2% | .284 | 3.59 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 55 | +0.47 | 2.49 | 160 | 84 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.15 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.73 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.58 | 3.15 | 220 | 84 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 84 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .255 | 4.64 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 100 | +0.67 | 3.97 | 248 | 84 |
| Joe Broussard R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .316 | 3.66 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 95 | -0.18 | 2.61 | 304 | 83 |
| Esmerling De La Rosa R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.25 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .313 | 5.21 | 14.1% | 5.8% | 66 | +1.96 | 2.98 | 237 | 83 |
| Seth Frankoff R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .312 | 4.49 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 177 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 263 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 29 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 1.10 | 4.32 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |