Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 40 | 0 | 43 | 162 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 8.0% | 19.9% | 1.8% | 1.47 | 2.73 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 40 | 0 | 43 | 162 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 37.7% | 6.8% | 30.9% | 1.2% | 1.47 | 1.63 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 55 | 0 | 54 | 203 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.1% | 8.7% | 22.4% | 0.7% | 1.51 | 1.95 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 55 | 0 | 54 | 203 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 38.4% | 7.9% | 30.5% | 0.5% | 1.51 | 1.33 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 1 | 45 | 206 | 54 | 19 | 5 | 2% | 0.9 | 24.2% | 9.7% | 14.5% | 2.7% | 6.00 | 3.75 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 1 | 45 | 206 | 54 | 19 | 5 | 2% | 0.9 | 26.2% | 9.2% | 17.0% | 2.4% | 6.00 | 3.41 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 68 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 78 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.2% | 7.1% | 22.1% | 2.0% | 4.31 | 2.66 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 68 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 78 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.2% | 7.1% | 22.1% | 1.9% | 4.31 | 2.56 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 66 | 0 | 60 | 257 | 82 | 22 | 13 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.9% | 8.6% | 23.3% | 5.5% | 4.37 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 66 | 0 | 60 | 257 | 82 | 22 | 13 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.9% | 8.6% | 23.3% | 5.1% | 4.37 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 25 | 0 | 23 | 101 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.8% | 5.9% | 15.8% | 7.6% | 7.15 | 6.17 | -0.4 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 25 | 0 | 23 | 101 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.8% | 5.9% | 15.8% | 6.9% | 7.15 | 5.97 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 46 | 214 | 58 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.1% | 16.2% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 6.02 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 46 | 214 | 58 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.1% | 15.9% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 6.02 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 62 | 0 | 57 | 231 | 77 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 33.3% | 5.6% | 27.7% | 1.9% | 3.49 | 2.04 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 62 | 0 | 57 | 231 | 77 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 33.3% | 5.6% | 27.7% | 1.7% | 3.49 | 1.99 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 59 | 0 | 56 | 238 | 73 | 14 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.7% | 5.9% | 24.8% | 3.8% | 3.04 | 3.33 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 59 | 0 | 56 | 238 | 73 | 14 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.7% | 5.9% | 24.8% | 3.8% | 3.04 | 3.33 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 69 | 0 | 69 | 277 | 82 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.6% | 7.9% | 21.7% | 0.7% | 2.62 | 2.00 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 69 | 0 | 69 | 277 | 82 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.6% | 7.9% | 21.7% | 0.7% | 2.62 | 2.05 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 54 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.5% | 7.5% | 22.0% | 2.4% | 3.29 | 3.27 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 56 | 0 | 59 | 250 | 72 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 7.9% | 20.8% | 2.7% | 3.43 | 3.53 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 52 | 0 | 54 | 229 | 64 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 8.4% | 19.5% | 3.0% | 3.66 | 3.81 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 72 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 7.9% | 20.8% | 2.7% | 3.43 | 3.53 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 64 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 8.4% | 19.5% | 3.0% | 3.66 | 3.81 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 533 | 0 | 504 | 2158 | 624 | 178 | 63 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.9% | 8.2% | 20.6% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 3.32 | +12.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 211 | 0 | 200 | 856 | 247 | 71 | 25 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.9% | 8.2% | 20.6% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 3.32 | +4.9 | ||
| Career | — | 548 | 1 | 515 | 2156 | 630 | 181 | 59 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.2% | 8.4% | 20.8% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 3.20 | +13.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 213 | 0 | 200 | 838 | 245 | 70 | 23 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.2% | 8.4% | 20.8% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 3.20 | +5.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Jiménez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.27 | 29.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | — | 3.66 | 28.3% | 20.2% | 113 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| Mark Lowe R 2027 · 2.37 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.37 | 28.4% | 5.1% | 1.9% | .302 | 5.17 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 98 | +2.80 | 2.37 | 153 | 79 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.04 | 28.1% | 6.1% | 2.8% | .257 | 3.20 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 89 | +0.16 | 2.82 | 316 | 79 |
| Anthony Swarzak R 2026 · 2.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.45 | 30.0% | 5.9% | 2.1% | .277 | 5.30 | 23.7% | 12.8% | 80 | +2.85 | 2.45 | 260 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 77 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 77 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 76 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 75 |
| C.C. Lee R 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.00 | 34.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 121 | 75 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 2.50 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.50 | 30.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 75 |
| Shawn Kelley R 2026 · 2.34 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.34 | 30.7% | 5.4% | 2.1% | .291 | 4.06 | 29.3% | 24.4% | 133 | +1.72 | 2.34 | 232 | 74 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 74 |
| Ryan Madson R 2029 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 74 |
| Spencer Patton R 2028 · 3.09 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.09 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.10 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.01 | 2.74 | 239 | 74 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 74 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.45 | 31.1% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .222 | 3.03 | 25.3% | 18.2% | 171 | -0.42 | 2.45 | 394 | 73 |
| Jay Jackson R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.91 | 32.4% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .272 | 3.61 | 29.4% | 19.9% | 41 | +0.70 | 2.41 | 261 | 73 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 2.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.48 | 32.1% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .211 | 3.23 | 25.5% | 16.3% | 162 | +0.75 | 2.48 | 277 | 73 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 73 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2028 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.46 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.80 | 2.02 | 102 | 73 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.04 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 281 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 52 | 28.7% | 8.0% | 1.05 | 3.47 |
| Diego Castillo ('22) | 5 | 52 | 28.1% | 8.9% | 1.07 | 3.12 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Pedro Báez ('19) | 5 | 63 | 26.1% | 8.3% | 0.97 | 3.06 |
| Keone Kela ('19) | 5 | 43 | 30.1% | 9.4% | 0.92 | 3.23 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Sean Doolittle ('21) | 5 | 49 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 1.18 | 3.31 |