Carlos Estévez — OGILVIE

Carlos Estévez P Kansas City Royals

Age 33 RHP 6'6" / 277 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION1 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10193vR 85

ERA3.67

FIP3.71

K%22.7%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%16.7%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p1019.0%

p3620.1%

xwOBA vs

p630.299

SL (22%)

CH-0.6 (22%)

FB-2.7 (56%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	229	68	14	2	0%	1.2	23.6%	6.8%	16.8%	0.9%	3.40	2.48	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	56	229	68	14	2	0%	1.2	29.7%	6.1%	23.6%	0.9%	3.40	1.88	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	61	272	63	27	6	0%	0.9	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	2.2%	5.04	3.50	+0.8
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	61	272	63	27	6	0%	0.9	23.2%	9.9%	13.2%	2.2%	5.04	3.64	+0.7
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	66	279	65	22	5	0%	1.0	21.8%	8.1%	13.8%	1.6%	3.41	3.16	+1.1
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	66	279	65	22	5	0%	1.0	23.3%	7.9%	15.4%	1.8%	3.41	3.12	+1.1
2018	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	28	0	28	131	35	11	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	4.3%	6.35	4.61	—
2018	25	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	28	0	28	131	35	11	6	0%	1.0	26.7%	8.4%	18.3%	4.6%	6.35	4.55	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	71	0	72	308	81	22	12	0%	1.0	26.3%	7.1%	19.2%	3.5%	3.75	3.68	+0.7
2019	26	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	71	0	72	308	81	22	12	0%	1.0	26.3%	7.1%	19.2%	3.9%	3.75	3.93	+0.5
2020	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	26	0	24	116	27	9	6	0%	0.9	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	4.6%	7.50	4.64	-0.0
2020	27	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	26	0	24	116	27	9	6	0%	0.9	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	5.2%	7.50	5.22	-0.2
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	63	275	63	21	8	0%	1.0	22.2%	7.8%	14.4%	2.6%	4.31	3.65	+0.7
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	63	275	63	21	8	0%	1.0	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	2.9%	4.31	3.75	+0.6
2022	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	62	0	57	235	54	22	7	0%	0.9	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	2.6%	3.47	3.80	+0.5
2022	29	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	62	0	57	235	54	22	7	0%	0.9	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	3.0%	3.47	3.96	+0.4
2023	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	63	0	62	281	78	26	7	0%	1.0	27.8%	9.3%	18.5%	2.4%	3.90	3.27	+1.0
2023	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	63	0	62	281	78	26	7	0%	1.0	27.8%	9.3%	18.5%	2.4%	3.90	3.27	+1.0
2023	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	63	0	62	281	78	26	7	0%	1.0	27.8%	9.3%	18.5%	2.5%	3.90	3.31	+0.9
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	54	0	55	212	50	8	5	0%	1.0	23.6%	3.8%	19.8%	2.2%	2.45	2.79	+1.2
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	54	0	55	212	50	8	5	0%	1.0	23.6%	3.8%	19.8%	2.2%	2.45	2.79	+1.2
2024	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	54	0	55	212	50	8	5	0%	1.0	23.6%	3.8%	19.8%	2.4%	2.45	2.90	+1.1
2025	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	67	0	66	269	54	16	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	5.9%	14.1%	2.0%	2.45	3.26	+1.0
2025	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	67	0	66	269	54	16	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	5.9%	14.1%	2.0%	2.45	3.26	+1.0
2025	32	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	67	0	66	269	54	16	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	5.9%	14.1%	1.9%	2.45	3.18	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			506	0	486	2093	494	162	60	0%	1.0	23.6%	7.7%	15.9%	2.9%	4.08	3.67	+5.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	2	0	1	10	0	3	1	0%	0.5	—	—	—	—	54.00	—	—
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	2	0	1	10	0	3	1	0%	0.5	—	—	—	—	54.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	AAA RAW	KC	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	33.3%	-33.3%	0.0%	0.00	7.32	—
2026	33	MLB RAW	KC	1	0	0	7	0	2	1	0%	0.3	0.0%	28.6%	-28.6%	14.3%	162.00	14.56	—
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	KC	1	0	0	7	0	2	1	0%	0.3	0.0%	28.6%	-28.6%	14.3%	162.00	14.56	—
ROS	33	MLB MLE	KC	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0%	1.5	22.7%	6.0%	16.7%	2.5%	3.67	3.71	+0.0
ROS	33	MLB CTX	KC	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	22.7%	6.0%	16.7%	2.5%	3.67	3.71	+0.0
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	3	16	1	3	1	—	—	8.9%	20.5%	-11.6%	7.1%	23.49	2.25	+0.1
FULL	33	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	2	8	1	3	1	—	—	18.6%	42.9%	-24.2%	14.7%	31.85	15.03	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	KC	49	0	51	216	47	14	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	6.5%	15.3%	2.8%	3.87	4.01	+0.3
2028	35	MLB MLE	KC	44	0	46	194	40	14	6	0%	1.0	20.8%	7.0%	13.8%	3.2%	4.15	4.34	+0.1
2029	36	MLB MLE	KC	39	0	41	171	34	13	6	0%	1.0	19.8%	7.6%	12.2%	3.5%	4.49	4.71	-0.1
2027	34	MLB CTX	KC	49	0	51	215	47	14	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	6.5%	15.3%	2.8%	3.87	4.01	+0.3
2028	35	MLB CTX	KC	44	0	46	194	40	14	6	0%	1.0	20.8%	7.0%	13.8%	3.2%	4.15	4.34	+0.1
2029	36	MLB CTX	KC	39	0	41	173	34	13	6	0%	1.1	19.8%	7.6%	12.2%	3.5%	4.49	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		639	0	625	2680	617	203	78	0%	1.0	23.0%	7.6%	15.4%	2.9%	4.09	3.72	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		204	0	200	858	198	65	25	0%	1.0	23.0%	7.6%	15.4%	2.9%	4.09	3.72	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		622	0	611	2617	616	204	66	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.8%	15.8%	2.5%	3.95	3.47	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		204	0	200	857	202	67	21	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.8%	15.8%	2.5%	3.95	3.47	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Estévez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.71	22.7%	6.0%	2.5%	—	4.33	20.9%	13.9%	138	+0.62	—	—	—
Pedro Strop R 2018 · 2.99 FIP	33	SU	2.99	23.7%	7.5%	1.7%	.211	4.05	27.5%	16.8%	42	+1.06	2.56	277	82
David Hernandez R 2018 · 2.94 FIP	33	SU	2.94	25.6%	6.3%	2.2%	.240	3.72	26.8%	18.2%	43	+0.78	2.60	268	81
Bud Norris R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	33	SU	3.65	27.3%	7.3%	3.5%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	316	80
Tommy Hunter R 2018 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	18.9%	5.2%	2.1%	.296	2.78	24.5%	18.6%	25	-0.52	2.78	316	79
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	78
Brandon Morrow R 2017 · 2.67 FIP	33	SU	2.67	26.5%	5.1%	2.1%	.297	2.82	25.4%	18.0%	31	+0.15	2.67	186	78
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	78
Ryan Madson R 2015 · 2.99 FIP	34	SU	2.99	23.4%	5.2%	2.2%	.244	2.96	23.9%	18.7%	176	-0.03	1.42	240	78
Jim Johnson R 2016 · 2.56 FIP	33	SU	2.56	25.6%	7.5%	1.2%	.309	4.20	20.1%	11.9%	120	+1.64	2.56	251	76
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	74
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	74
Chad Gaudin R 2016 · 2.67 FIP	33	SU	2.67	22.8%	6.8%	1.2%	.325	3.15	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.48	2.02	102	74
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	73
Javy Guerra R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	19.9%	4.9%	3.5%	.277	4.37	18.6%	8.6%	16	+0.42	2.95	260	73
Daniel Bard R 2020 · 2.82 FIP	35	SU	2.82	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.63	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.81	2.56	200	71
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	284	70
Carlos Torres R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	23.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.252	3.99	18.9%	10.0%	186	+0.59	2.89	326	70
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	69
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	69
Brad Brach R 2019 · 3.43 FIP	33	SU	3.43	24.8%	12.0%	1.7%	.356	4.65	23.0%	9.8%	66	+1.22	2.69	410	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	47	21.4%	6.7%	1.15	4.02
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38