Carlos Estévez
P
Kansas City Royals
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 33
RHP
6'6" / 277 lbs
MLB
Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA3.45
FIP3.75
xFIP29.42
SIERA11.04
K%22.1%
BB%6.5%
K-BB%15.6%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†5555
FB Velo
p7095.9
Whiff%
p1019.0%
K%
p3620.1%
xwOBA vs
p630.299
SL (22%)
CH-0.6 (22%)
FB-2.7 (56%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | AA | New Britain Rock Cats | 48 | 0 | 56 | 229 | 68 | 14 | 2 | 23.6% | 6.8% | 1.0% | 3.40 | 2.50 | +1.5 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 68 | 0 | 61 | 272 | 63 | 27 | 6 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 2.3% | 5.04 | 3.57 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 68 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 65 | 22 | 5 | 21.8% | 8.1% | 1.6% | 3.41 | 3.15 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 28 | 0 | 28 | 131 | 35 | 11 | 6 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 6.35 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 71 | 0 | 72 | 308 | 81 | 22 | 12 | 26.3% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 3.75 | 3.64 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 26 | 0 | 24 | 116 | 27 | 9 | 6 | 23.3% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 7.50 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 65 | 0 | 63 | 275 | 63 | 21 | 8 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 4.31 | 3.60 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 62 | 0 | 57 | 235 | 54 | 22 | 7 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 3.47 | 3.54 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 63 | 0 | 62 | 281 | 78 | 26 | 7 | 27.8% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 3.90 | 3.22 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 54 | 0 | 55 | 212 | 50 | 8 | 5 | 23.6% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 2.45 | 2.76 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 67 | 0 | 66 | 269 | 54 | 16 | 5 | 20.1% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.45 | 3.23 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 162.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | KC | 28 | — | 28 | 117 | 28 | 8 | 3 | 23.8% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 3.41 | 3.66 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | KC | — | — | 28 | 124 | 28 | 10 | 4 | 22.5% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 5.29 | 3.62 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | KC | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 52 | 15 | 6 | 23.2% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 3.64 | 3.79 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | KC | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 47 | 15 | 6 | 22.4% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 3.95 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | KC | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 43 | 14 | 6 | 21.6% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 37 | MLB | KC | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 20.8% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 38 | MLB | KC | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 621 | 0 | 610 | 2614 | 616 | 203 | 64 | 23.6% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 3.95 | 3.44 | +12.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 204 | 0 | 200 | 857 | 202 | 67 | 21 | 23.6% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 3.95 | 3.44 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Estévez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.66 | 23.8% | 6.5% | 2.5% | — | 3.94 | 22.4% | 15.5% | 150 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Madson R 2027 · 2.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.94 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .244 | 2.97 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.03 | 1.43 | 240 | 75 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2026 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.16 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.50 | 2.02 | 102 | 74 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.37 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.52 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +1.15 | 3.37 | 144 | 73 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 73 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 2.67 FIP | 33 | SW | 2.67 | 26.5% | 5.1% | 2.1% | .297 | 2.85 | 25.4% | 18.0% | 31 | +0.18 | 2.67 | 186 | 73 |
| Daniel Bard R 2028 · 2.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.86 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.60 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.74 | 2.45 | 200 | 72 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.12 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 1.6% | .358 | 4.15 | 13.7% | 6.9% | 250 | +1.03 | 3.12 | 352 | 72 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.63 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 316 | 72 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 72 |
| Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 72 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 72 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.02 | 23.7% | 7.5% | 1.8% | .211 | 4.10 | 27.5% | 16.8% | 42 | +1.08 | 2.58 | 277 | 72 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 33 | SW | 2.86 | 25.6% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.85 | 26.8% | 18.2% | 43 | +0.99 | 2.56 | 268 | 72 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 2.57 FIP | 33 | SW | 2.57 | 25.6% | 7.5% | 1.2% | .309 | 4.26 | 20.1% | 11.9% | 120 | +1.69 | 2.57 | 251 | 71 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 69 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2024 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 68 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2025 · 3.29 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.29 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.73 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.56 | 2.73 | 316 | 68 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 68 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 68 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 2.48 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.48 | 26.5% | 10.0% | 0.6% | .352 | 3.94 | 18.1% | 5.2% | 44 | +1.46 | 2.48 | 147 | 68 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2016
Service 9.128 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
OPT
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $11M | +0.4 | $2M | -$9M |
| Totals | $11M | $2M | -$9M | ||
| Options · projected decision | |||
| 2027 | CLUB OPT | $2027.0M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2028 | CLUB OPT | $13.0M / $2.0M buyout | DECLINE |