Carlos Estévez
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 33
RHP
6'6" / 277 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION1 act + 37 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10192vR 83
ERA3.68
FIP3.71
K%22.7%
BB%6.0%
K-BB%16.7%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7095.9
Whiff%
p1019.0%
K%
p3620.1%
xwOBA vs
p630.299
SL (22%)
CH-0.6 (22%)
FB-2.7 (56%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 229 | 68 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.6% | 6.8% | 16.8% | 0.8% | 3.40 | 2.43 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 229 | 68 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.7% | 6.1% | 23.6% | 0.9% | 3.40 | 1.88 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 61 | 272 | 63 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 1.9% | 5.04 | 3.34 | +0.9 |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 61 | 272 | 63 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 2.2% | 5.04 | 3.64 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 65 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 8.1% | 13.8% | 1.4% | 3.41 | 3.04 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 65 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 7.9% | 15.4% | 1.8% | 3.41 | 3.12 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 28 | 0 | 28 | 131 | 35 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 3.8% | 6.35 | 4.32 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 28 | 0 | 28 | 131 | 35 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 8.4% | 18.3% | 4.6% | 6.35 | 4.55 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 71 | 0 | 72 | 308 | 81 | 22 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 7.1% | 19.2% | 3.0% | 3.75 | 3.42 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 71 | 0 | 72 | 308 | 81 | 22 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 7.1% | 19.2% | 3.9% | 3.75 | 3.93 | +0.7 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 26 | 0 | 24 | 116 | 27 | 9 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.3% | 7.8% | 15.5% | 4.0% | 7.50 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 26 | 0 | 24 | 116 | 27 | 9 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.3% | 7.8% | 15.5% | 5.2% | 7.50 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 0 | 63 | 275 | 63 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 14.4% | 2.3% | 4.31 | 3.45 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 0 | 63 | 275 | 63 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 3.75 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 62 | 0 | 57 | 235 | 54 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 2.3% | 3.47 | 3.60 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 62 | 0 | 57 | 235 | 54 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 3.47 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 63 | 0 | 62 | 281 | 78 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 9.3% | 18.5% | 2.6% | 3.90 | 3.34 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 63 | 0 | 62 | 281 | 78 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 9.3% | 18.5% | 2.5% | 3.90 | 3.31 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 54 | 0 | 55 | 212 | 50 | 8 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 3.8% | 19.8% | 2.3% | 2.45 | 2.84 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 54 | 0 | 55 | 212 | 50 | 8 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 3.8% | 19.8% | 2.4% | 2.45 | 2.90 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 67 | 0 | 66 | 269 | 54 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 5.9% | 14.1% | 2.0% | 2.45 | 3.25 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 67 | 0 | 66 | 269 | 54 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 5.9% | 14.1% | 1.9% | 2.45 | 3.18 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | — | — | — | — | 54.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | KC | 36 | 0 | 37 | 158 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 6.0% | 16.7% | 2.5% | 3.68 | 3.71 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | KC | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 6.0% | 16.7% | 2.5% | 3.68 | 3.71 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | KC | — | — | 38 | 168 | 36 | 12 | 5 | — | — | 21.3% | 7.4% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 3.61 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | KC | — | — | 38 | 159 | 36 | 12 | 5 | — | — | 22.5% | 7.8% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 5.08 | 3.91 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | KC | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 47 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 6.5% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | KC | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 40 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 7.0% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.16 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | KC | 39 | 0 | 41 | 171 | 34 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 4.50 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | KC | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 47 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 6.5% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | KC | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 40 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 7.0% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.16 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | KC | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 34 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 4.50 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 673 | 0 | 661 | 2832 | 651 | 212 | 82 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 7.5% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 3.70 | +13.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 204 | 0 | 200 | 857 | 197 | 64 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 7.5% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 3.70 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 622 | 0 | 611 | 2617 | 616 | 204 | 60 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 7.8% | 15.8% | 2.3% | 3.95 | 3.35 | +14.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 204 | 0 | 200 | 857 | 202 | 67 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 7.8% | 15.8% | 2.3% | 3.95 | 3.35 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Estévez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.71 | 22.7% | 6.0% | 2.5% | — | 4.34 | 20.9% | 13.9% | 138 | +0.63 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Madson R 2027 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 78 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 2.68 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.68 | 26.5% | 5.1% | 2.1% | .297 | 2.77 | 25.4% | 18.0% | 31 | +0.09 | 2.68 | 186 | 75 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.41 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.36 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +0.95 | 3.41 | 144 | 74 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 74 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.58 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .335 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -0.95 | 2.63 | 144 | 74 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2026 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.46 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.80 | 2.02 | 102 | 74 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 316 | 74 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.97 | 25.6% | 6.3% | 2.2% | .240 | 3.77 | 26.8% | 18.2% | 43 | +0.80 | 2.56 | 268 | 73 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.94 | 23.7% | 7.5% | 1.6% | .211 | 3.93 | 27.5% | 16.8% | 42 | +0.99 | 2.48 | 277 | 73 |
| Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 73 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2025 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.34 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.82 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.52 | 2.82 | 316 | 72 |
| Daniel Bard R 2028 · 2.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.70 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .290 | 3.50 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.80 | 2.48 | 200 | 71 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2024 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 70 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.95 | 19.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | .277 | 4.37 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 16 | +0.42 | 2.95 | 260 | 69 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 69 |
| Oscar Villarreal R 2026 · 2.54 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.54 | 17.7% | 5.3% | 0.5% | .275 | 4.09 | 13.4% | 5.5% | 77 | +1.55 | 2.54 | 135 | 69 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 69 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 68 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2027 · 2.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.79 | 18.8% | 2.7% | 1.7% | .294 | 3.08 | 18.7% | 14.4% | 82 | +0.29 | 2.79 | 128 | 68 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 44 | 21.3% | 6.8% | 1.17 | 4.05 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Nick Vincent ('20) | 6 | 45 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 1.13 | 3.71 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |