Carlos Estévez

P Kansas City Royals

Age 34 RHP 6'6" / 277 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	31	MLBPHI	54	55	2.45	2.90	23.6%	3.8%	1.1
2025	32	MLBKC	67	66	2.45	3.18	20.1%	5.9%	1.1
2026	33	MIX2 levels	2	1	54.00	25.10	0.0%	30.0%	-0.2	K 0.0% · BB 30.0% · FIP 12.39
2027PROJ	34	MLBKC	35	37	3.75	3.89	21.9%	6.0%	0.3
2028PROJ	35	MLBKC	37	39	4.03	4.22	20.9%	6.6%	0.2
2029PROJ	36	MLBKC	22	23	4.37	4.59	19.9%	7.2%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo70

xwOBA vs63

K%36

CompsZack Segovia (age 33) · Akinori Otsuka (age 34) · Jumbo Diaz (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10395vR 87

ERA3.75

FIP3.89

K%21.9%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%15.8%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p1019.0%

p3620.1%

xwOBA vs

p630.299

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	229	68	14	2	0%	1.2	23.6%	6.8%	16.8%	0.9%	3.40	2.48	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	56	229	68	14	2	0%	1.2	29.7%	6.1%	23.6%	0.9%	3.40	1.88	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	61	272	63	27	6	0%	0.9	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	2.2%	5.04	3.50	+0.8
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	61	272	63	27	6	0%	0.9	23.2%	9.9%	13.2%	2.2%	5.04	3.64	+0.7
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	66	279	65	22	5	0%	1.0	21.8%	8.1%	13.8%	1.6%	3.41	3.16	+1.1
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	66	279	65	22	5	0%	1.0	23.3%	7.9%	15.4%	1.8%	3.41	3.12	+1.1
2018	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	28	0	28	131	35	11	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	4.3%	6.35	4.61	—
2018	25	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	28	0	28	131	35	11	6	0%	1.0	26.7%	8.4%	18.3%	4.6%	6.35	4.55	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	71	0	72	308	81	22	12	0%	1.0	26.3%	7.1%	19.2%	3.5%	3.75	3.68	+0.7
2019	26	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	71	0	72	308	81	22	12	0%	1.0	26.3%	7.1%	19.2%	3.9%	3.75	3.93	+0.5
2020	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	26	0	24	116	27	9	6	0%	0.9	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	4.6%	7.50	4.64	-0.0
2020	27	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	26	0	24	116	27	9	6	0%	0.9	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	5.2%	7.50	5.22	-0.2
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	63	275	63	21	8	0%	1.0	22.2%	7.8%	14.4%	2.6%	4.31	3.65	+0.7
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	63	275	63	21	8	0%	1.0	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	2.9%	4.31	3.75	+0.6
2022	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	62	0	57	235	54	22	7	0%	0.9	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	2.6%	3.47	3.80	+0.5
2022	29	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	62	0	57	235	54	22	7	0%	0.9	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	3.0%	3.47	3.96	+0.4
2023	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	63	0	62	281	78	26	7	0%	1.0	27.8%	9.3%	18.5%	2.4%	3.90	3.27	+1.0
2023	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	63	0	62	281	78	26	7	0%	1.0	27.8%	9.3%	18.5%	2.5%	3.90	3.31	+0.9
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	54	0	55	212	50	8	5	0%	1.0	23.6%	3.8%	19.8%	2.2%	2.45	2.79	+1.2
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	54	0	55	212	50	8	5	0%	1.0	23.6%	3.8%	19.8%	2.2%	2.45	2.79	+1.2
2024	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	54	0	55	212	50	8	5	0%	1.0	23.6%	3.8%	19.8%	2.4%	2.45	2.90	+1.1
2025	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	67	0	66	269	54	16	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	5.9%	14.1%	2.0%	2.45	3.26	+1.0
2025	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	67	0	66	269	54	16	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	5.9%	14.1%	2.0%	2.45	3.26	+1.0
2025	32	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	67	0	66	269	54	16	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	5.9%	14.1%	1.9%	2.45	3.18	+1.1
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	0	1	10	0	3	1	0%	0.5	0.0%	30.0%	-30.0%	10.0%	54.00	12.39	-0.1
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	0	1	10	0	3	1	0%	0.5	0.0%	30.0%	-30.0%	10.0%	54.00	12.39	-0.1
2026	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	0	1	10	0	3	1	0%	0.5	0.0%	30.0%	-30.0%	10.0%	54.00	25.10	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			506	0	486	2093	494	162	60	0%	1.0	23.6%	7.7%	15.9%	2.9%	4.08	3.67	+5.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	KC	35	0	37	156	34	9	4	0%	1.1	21.9%	6.0%	15.8%	2.7%	3.75	3.89	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	KC	37	0	39	166	35	11	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	6.6%	14.3%	3.0%	4.03	4.22	+0.2
2029	36	MLB MLE	KC	22	0	23	98	19	7	3	0%	1.1	19.9%	7.2%	12.7%	3.4%	4.37	4.59	-0.0
2030	37	MLB MLE	KC	12	0	12	52	10	4	2	0%	1.0	18.8%	7.8%	10.9%	3.8%	4.74	4.99	-0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	KC	37	0	39	165	34	11	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	6.6%	14.3%	3.0%	4.03	4.22	+0.2
2029	36	MLB CTX	KC	22	0	23	97	19	7	3	0%	1.0	19.9%	7.2%	12.7%	3.4%	4.37	4.59	-0.0
2030	37	MLB CTX	KC	11	0	12	51	10	4	2	0%	1.1	18.8%	7.8%	10.9%	3.8%	4.74	4.99	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		577	0	560	2408	558	184	70	0%	1.0	23.2%	7.6%	15.5%	2.9%	4.10	3.72	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		206	0	200	860	199	66	25	0%	1.0	23.2%	7.6%	15.5%	2.9%	4.10	3.72	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		622	0	611	2617	616	204	66	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.8%	15.8%	2.5%	3.95	3.47	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		204	0	200	857	202	67	21	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.8%	15.8%	2.5%	3.95	3.47	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 28 IPFIP 4.42 → 4.61 (+0.19)K% 26.7% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.72%	—	×0.880	23.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.40%	—	×1.050	8.82%
HR / BF /BF	4.58%	÷1.162	×1.100	4.34%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 132).

Result: FIP 4.42 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 34 IPFIP 2.71 → 2.95 (+0.24)K% 26.2% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.15%	—	×0.880	23.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.050	8.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.202	×1.100	1.41%

Result: FIP 2.71 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 6 IPFIP 3.26 → 3.49 (+0.23)K% 15.4% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.38%	—	×0.880	13.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.050	12.12%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.202	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.26 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AANew Britain Rock Cats · 36 IPFIP 2.21 → 2.77 (+0.55)K% 27.4% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.39%	—	×0.810	22.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.73%	—	×1.100	6.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.133	×1.200	1.35%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 2.21 → 2.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Modesto Nuts · 20 IPFIP 1.05 → 1.85 (+0.81)K% 34.7% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.72%	—	×0.770	26.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.94%	—	×1.150	7.99%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.827	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 65).

Result: FIP 1.05 → 1.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Estévez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.89	21.9%	6.0%	2.7%	—	4.46	20.2%	13.3%	74	+0.57	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	77
Akinori Otsuka R 2006 · 2.70 FIP	34	SU	2.70	20.3%	4.7%	1.3%	.292	2.39	17.6%	11.5%	32	-0.31	2.39	232	74
Jumbo Diaz R 2018 · 2.80 FIP	34	SU	2.80	23.2%	10.4%	0.6%	.296	2.98	25.0%	17.3%	56	+0.18	2.80	319	72
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	71
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	70
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	69
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	69
Brendan Donnelly R 2005 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	19.6%	5.9%	3.3%	.264	4.02	17.6%	8.5%	98	-0.00	2.23	385	69
Tony Pena Jr. R 2015 · 2.80 FIP	34	SU	2.80	18.8%	2.7%	1.7%	.294	3.02	18.7%	14.4%	82	+0.22	2.80	128	69
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	69
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	68
Jay Jackson R 2022 · 2.98 FIP	34	SU	2.98	27.5%	5.3%	2.8%	.327	4.83	26.2%	20.2%	85	+1.85	2.36	261	67
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2002 · 2.76 FIP	34	SU	2.76	29.3%	6.4%	2.4%	.247	3.30	19.3%	10.6%	33	+0.54	2.76	223	67
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	34	SU	4.50	21.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	212	67
Chris Nichting R 2001 · 4.11 FIP	35	SU	4.11	21.2%	3.7%	4.2%	.351	4.67	16.6%	13.3%	36	+0.56	4.11	103	66
Huascar Brazobán R 2024 · 3.08 FIP	34	SU	3.08	23.5%	11.5%	0.9%	.259	3.71	21.3%	11.7%	144	+0.63	3.08	370	65
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	65
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	65
Travis Smith R 2005 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	17.3%	7.7%	1.9%	.421	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	105	65
Willie Eyre R 2011 · 4.18 FIP	33	SU	4.18	13.9%	6.9%	2.5%	.182	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	164	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	46	23.1%	8.4%	1.13	4.08
Alan Embree ('09)	3.9	52	20.8%	8.8%	1.10	4.59
Fernando Salas ('19)	2.4	54	23.1%	7.3%	1.05	3.91
Jason Grilli ('17)	3.4	53	23.4%	9.8%	1.00	4.22
Mark Guthrie ('89-'03, 8 WAR*)	4.9	65	22.8%*	8.5%*	1.07*	4.01*
Tom Niedenfuer ('81-'90, 8 WAR*)	3.3	65	23.1%*	8.1%*	1.19*	3.80*
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*