Luis Guerrero
P
Durham Bulls
Age 25
RHP
6'0" / 215 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142133vR 124
ERA5.13
FIP5.47
K%22.3%
BB%18.4%
K-BB%3.9%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7896.5
Whiff%
p7729.5%
K%
p1013.9%
xwOBA vs
p100.379
SL+2.5 (58%)
FB+0.9 (37%)
CH (5%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 59 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.4% | 11.8% | 14.6% | 1.1% | 3.23 | 2.97 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 59 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 35.5% | 9.6% | 25.9% | 0.6% | 3.23 | 1.64 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 54 | 237 | 68 | 36 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 7.5% | 1.0% | 2.32 | 3.67 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 54 | 237 | 68 | 36 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 15.2% | 13.5% | 1.3% | 2.32 | 3.30 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 64 | 275 | 88 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.1% | 14.1% | 15.0% | 2.8% | 2.80 | 3.95 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 64 | 275 | 88 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.0% | 12.4% | 19.6% | 2.2% | 2.80 | 3.16 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 39 | 0 | 48 | 212 | 37 | 40 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.1% | 16.9% | -0.9% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 5.55 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 39 | 0 | 48 | 212 | 37 | 40 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.5% | 18.9% | -1.4% | 2.4% | 4.47 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 28 | 1 | 37 | 172 | 31 | 22 | 13 | 4% | 1.3 | 15.9% | 13.4% | 2.4% | 8.3% | 7.78 | 8.03 | -1.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TB | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 54 | 44 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 18.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.13 | 5.47 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TB | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 18.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.13 | 5.47 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | TB | — | — | 94 | 412 | 85 | 66 | 20 | — | — | 20.5% | 16.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.18 | 6.48 | -1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | TB | — | — | 6 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 22.3% | 18.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 5.13 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 55 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 17.5% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TB | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 55 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 5.20 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TB | 52 | 0 | 54 | 229 | 53 | 38 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 16.7% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 5.24 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TB | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 26 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 17.5% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TB | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 36 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 5.20 | 5.26 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | TB | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 41 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 16.7% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 5.24 | 5.30 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 129 | 0 | 139 | 581 | 128 | 97 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 16.6% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 4.70 | 4.65 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 185 | 0 | 200 | 834 | 184 | 139 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 16.6% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 4.70 | 4.65 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 194 | 1 | 243 | 1062 | 239 | 153 | 33 | 1% | 1.3 | 22.5% | 14.4% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 3.85 | 4.71 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 160 | 1 | 200 | 874 | 196 | 126 | 27 | 1% | 1.3 | 22.5% | 14.4% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 3.85 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Guerrero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.47 | 22.3% | 18.4% | 2.8% | — | 5.29 | 23.0% | 6.0% | 167 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | .320 | 5.49 | 17.8% | 0.5% | 40 | +0.14 | 5.17 | 116 | 80 |
| Zane Morehouse R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.86 | 19.3% | 15.8% | 2.5% | .321 | 6.20 | 18.6% | -0.4% | 17 | +1.34 | 2.62 | 116 | 80 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.50 | 20.5% | 16.2% | 2.0% | .351 | 3.67 | 14.2% | 4.6% | 18 | -0.83 | 3.67 | 108 | 80 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.04 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.8% | .270 | 3.47 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 42 | -1.57 | 3.47 | 146 | 79 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 79 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.64 | 18.1% | 16.4% | 1.8% | .278 | 4.44 | 18.8% | 5.8% | 90 | -0.20 | 4.16 | 164 | 79 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 79 |
| Yaramil Hiraldo R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.90 | 18.5% | 15.5% | 2.5% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 137 | 79 |
| Christopher Troye R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.42 | 24.2% | 17.0% | 4.0% | .282 | 5.50 | 19.1% | -3.8% | 30 | +0.08 | 3.42 | 158 | 78 |
| Evan Johnson R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.43 | 23.6% | 17.6% | 2.0% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.32 | 103 | 78 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.61 | 27.0% | 21.6% | 3.8% | .292 | 3.90 | 28.7% | 16.6% | 164 | -1.71 | 3.30 | 323 | 78 |
| Sean Reynolds R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.50 | 20.1% | 17.4% | 1.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 21.1% | 5.7% | 109 | -0.05 | 3.70 | 258 | 77 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.60 | 19.9% | 17.5% | 3.6% | .214 | 4.77 | 19.0% | 3.2% | 53 | -0.83 | 3.73 | 203 | 77 |
| Fernando Baez R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.39 | 24.3% | 21.2% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 129 | 77 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .324 | 7.06 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.98 | 4.90 | 103 | 77 |
| Michael Petersen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.44 | 21.8% | 17.0% | 1.9% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 381 | 77 |
| Nick Mears R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 22.4% | 16.8% | 2.0% | .283 | 3.53 | 26.0% | 16.0% | 157 | -0.92 | 3.33 | 273 | 77 |
| Dakota Mekkes R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 16.7% | 1.8% | 70 | +0.30 | 2.99 | 246 | 77 |
| Johnathan Lavallee R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.38 | 20.4% | 18.2% | 3.1% | .318 | 3.26 | 25.0% | 18.5% | 34 | -2.12 | 3.26 | 181 | 77 |
| Kyle Wilcox R 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.80 | 25.1% | 21.2% | 3.9% | .310 | 5.67 | 25.1% | -1.5% | 13 | -0.13 | 2.77 | 310 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 56 | 22.8% | 17.4% | 1.12 | 5.19 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |