Luis Guerrero — OGILVIE

Luis Guerrero P Durham Bulls

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 215 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.08

FIP5.38

K%21.5%

BB%17.2%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7896.5

Whiff%

p7729.5%

p1013.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.379

SL+2.5 (58%)

FB+0.9 (37%)

CH (5%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	39	166	59	16	1	0%	1.4	26.4%	11.8%	14.6%	0.9%	3.23	2.88	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	39	166	59	16	1	0%	1.4	35.5%	9.6%	25.9%	0.6%	3.23	1.64	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	54	237	68	36	3	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.0%	7.5%	1.1%	2.32	3.70	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	54	237	68	36	3	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.0%	7.5%	1.1%	2.32	3.70	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	54	237	68	36	3	0%	1.1	28.7%	15.2%	13.5%	1.3%	2.32	3.30	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	64	275	88	34	6	0%	1.3	27.4%	12.1%	15.4%	2.8%	2.80	3.83	+0.5
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	64	275	88	34	6	0%	1.3	27.4%	12.1%	15.4%	2.8%	2.80	3.83	+0.5
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	64	275	88	34	6	0%	1.3	32.0%	12.4%	19.6%	2.2%	2.80	3.16	+1.1
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	39	0	48	212	37	40	5	0%	1.2	15.5%	15.6%	-0.1%	3.0%	4.47	5.40	-0.5
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	39	0	48	212	37	40	5	0%	1.2	15.5%	15.6%	-0.1%	3.0%	4.47	5.40	-0.5
2025	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	39	0	48	212	37	40	5	0%	1.2	17.5%	18.9%	-1.4%	2.4%	4.47	5.40	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			22	0	27	108	19	16	0	0%	1.2	17.6%	14.8%	2.8%	0.0%	2.63	3.47	+0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	38	1	48	228	50	31	16	3%	1.3	18.0%	12.9%	5.1%	7.8%	8.69	7.50	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	38	1	48	228	50	31	16	3%	1.3	18.0%	12.9%	5.1%	7.8%	8.69	7.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	TB	9	0	10	53	18	8	2	0%	1.1	34.0%	15.1%	18.9%	3.8%	10.45	4.22	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	TB	29	1	37	175	32	23	14	3%	1.3	18.3%	13.1%	5.1%	8.0%	8.20	7.61	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	TB	5	0	5	22	5	4	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	17.2%	4.3%	2.8%	5.08	5.38	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	53	250	55	35	17	—	—	21.9%	13.9%	8.0%	6.6%	8.33	7.29	-1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TB	55	0	58	244	55	40	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	16.4%	6.1%	2.8%	5.11	5.21	-0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	54	0	57	241	54	38	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.9%	6.6%	2.9%	5.12	5.18	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	TB	27	0	28	118	27	19	3	0%	1.0	22.5%	16.4%	6.1%	2.8%	5.11	5.21	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	36	0	38	160	36	26	5	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.9%	6.6%	2.9%	5.12	5.18	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	0	93	387	82	61	8	0%	1.1	21.1%	15.8%	5.4%	2.1%	4.39	4.44	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		182	0	200	829	175	131	17	0%	1.1	21.1%	15.8%	5.4%	2.1%	4.39	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		204	1	254	1118	247	151	36	0%	1.2	22.1%	13.5%	8.6%	3.2%	4.19	4.71	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	1	200	881	194	119	28	0%	1.2	22.1%	13.5%	8.6%	3.2%	4.19	4.71	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Guerrero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.38	21.5%	17.2%	2.8%	—	5.20	22.5%	6.3%	115	-0.18	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	81
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	81
Yaramil Hiraldo R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	25	SU	4.86	18.5%	15.5%	2.5%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	153	80
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	80
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	80
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	79
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	79
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	79
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	79
Evan Johnson R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	23.6%	17.6%	2.4%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	78
Walker Brockhouse R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SU	4.24	21.7%	16.7%	1.6%	.301	5.15	18.7%	4.0%	42	+0.91	4.24	126	78
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	78
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	78
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	78
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	78
Sean Reynolds R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	19.6%	15.8%	1.7%	.315	4.29	20.2%	6.6%	109	-0.10	3.62	258	77
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	77
Nick Mears R 2022 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	22.4%	16.8%	2.1%	.283	3.41	25.7%	16.1%	157	-1.05	3.19	273	77
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	77
Michael Petersen R 2019 · 4.52 FIP	25	SU	4.52	21.8%	17.0%	2.0%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	399	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	22.2%	16.5%	1.10	5.10
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48