Luis Guerrero

P Durham Bulls

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	51	0	64	2.80	3.16	32.0%	12.4%	1.1	K 28.4% · BB 12.1% · FIP 3.75
2025	24	MIX4 levels	39	0	48	4.47	5.40	17.5%	18.9%	-0.5	K 15.8% · BB 15.6% · FIP 5.37
2026	25	MIX2 levels	38	1	48	8.69	7.32	21.9%	13.6%	—	K 18.5% · BB 12.9% · FIP 7.46
2027PROJ	26	MLBTB	6	0	6	5.55	6.16	20.1%	16.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBTB	17	0	18	5.75	6.01	20.4%	15.7%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBTB	21	0	22	5.83	5.97	20.5%	15.4%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo78

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsTyler Davis (age 25) · Nick Ernst (age 25) · Dusty Isaacs (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150142vR 134

ERA5.55

FIP6.16

K%20.1%

BB%16.4%

K-BB%3.8%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7896.5

Whiff%

p7729.5%

p1013.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.379

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	0	39	166	59	16	1	0%	1.4	26.4%	11.8%	14.6%	0.9%	3.23	2.88	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	0	39	166	59	16	1	0%	1.4	35.5%	9.6%	25.9%	0.6%	3.23	1.64	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	54	237	68	36	3	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.0%	7.5%	1.1%	2.32	3.70	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	54	237	68	36	3	0%	1.1	28.7%	15.2%	13.5%	1.3%	2.32	3.30	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	64	275	88	34	6	0%	1.3	28.4%	12.1%	16.4%	2.8%	2.80	3.75	+0.6
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	64	275	88	34	6	0%	1.3	28.4%	12.1%	16.4%	2.8%	2.80	3.75	+0.6
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	64	275	88	34	6	0%	1.3	32.0%	12.4%	19.6%	2.2%	2.80	3.16	+1.1
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	39	0	48	212	37	40	5	0%	1.2	15.8%	15.6%	0.3%	3.0%	4.47	5.37	-0.5
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	39	0	48	212	37	40	5	0%	1.2	15.8%	15.6%	0.3%	3.0%	4.47	5.37	-0.5
2025	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	39	0	48	212	37	40	5	0%	1.2	17.5%	18.9%	-1.4%	2.4%	4.47	5.40	-0.5
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	48	228	50	31	16	3%	1.3	18.5%	12.9%	5.5%	7.8%	8.69	7.46	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	48	228	50	31	16	3%	1.3	18.5%	12.9%	5.5%	7.8%	8.69	7.46	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	48	228	50	31	16	3%	1.3	21.9%	13.6%	8.3%	7.0%	8.69	7.32	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			22	0	27	108	19	16	0	0%	1.2	17.6%	14.8%	2.8%	0.0%	2.63	3.47	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TB	6	0	6	25	5	4	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	16.4%	3.8%	4.2%	5.55	6.16	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	39	0	41	174	36	27	7	0%	1.1	20.4%	15.7%	4.7%	4.1%	5.75	6.01	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	TB	33	0	35	147	30	23	6	0%	1.1	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	4.1%	5.83	5.97	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	17	0	18	76	16	12	3	0%	1.1	20.4%	15.7%	4.7%	4.1%	5.75	6.01	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	TB	21	0	22	93	19	14	4	0%	1.0	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	4.1%	5.83	5.97	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	67	274	53	42	7	0%	1.1	19.3%	15.2%	4.1%	2.5%	4.50	4.77	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	0	200	822	159	126	21	0%	1.1	19.3%	15.2%	4.1%	2.5%	4.50	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		204	1	254	1118	251	151	36	0%	1.2	22.5%	13.5%	9.0%	3.2%	4.19	4.67	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	1	200	881	198	119	28	0%	1.2	22.5%	13.5%	9.0%	3.2%	4.19	4.67	-1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 37 IPFIP 7.61 → 8.10 (+0.49)K% 18.3% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.29%	—	×0.860	15.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.14%	—	×0.900	11.83%
HR / BF /BF	8.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	8.80%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 7.61 → 8.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 10 IPFIP 4.22 → 5.37 (+1.15)K% 34.0% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.96%	—	×0.810	27.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.09%	—	×1.100	16.60%
HR / BF /BF	3.77%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.53%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.22 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 27 IPFIP 5.65 → 5.97 (+0.33)K% 19.8% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.83%	—	×0.860	17.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.66%	—	×0.900	13.19%
HR / BF /BF	4.31%	÷0.984	×1.100	4.82%

Result: FIP 5.65 → 5.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 54 IPFIP 3.38 → 3.75 (+0.37)K% 33.1% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.05%	—	×0.860	28.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.39%	—	×0.900	12.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.51%	÷0.996	×1.100	2.77%

Result: FIP 3.38 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 50 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.70 (+0.69)K% 27.8% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.83%	—	×0.810	22.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.68%	—	×1.100	15.05%
HR / BF /BF	0.94%	÷1.048	×1.200	1.08%

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 5 IPFIP 5.80 → 6.07 (+0.27)K% 36.0% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.00%	—	×0.860	30.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	28.00%	—	×0.900	25.20%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.008	×1.100	4.37%

Result: FIP 5.80 → 6.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASalem Red Sox · 24 IPFIP 2.21 → 3.53 (+1.32)K% 35.6% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.58%	—	×0.740	26.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.180	14.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.96%	÷0.873	×1.300	1.43%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 2.21 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greenville Drive · 13 IPFIP 0.87 → 1.65 (+0.77)K% 34.5% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.55%	—	×0.770	26.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.45%	—	×1.150	6.27%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.996	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 0.87 → 1.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Guerrero (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.16	20.1%	16.4%	4.2%	—	5.99	20.5%	4.9%	76	-0.17	—	—	—
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	84
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	81
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	80
Manny Barreda R 2015 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	21.2%	14.7%	3.4%	.286	3.69	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.35	3.30	376	79
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	79
Zach Willeman R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	26	SU	5.71	20.0%	14.6%	4.5%	.296	5.13	11.9%	-0.2%	76	-0.58	4.05	264	79
Todd Wellemeyer R 2005 · 5.70 FIP	26	SU	5.70	21.9%	14.4%	4.8%	.291	4.47	16.5%	6.8%	349	-1.23	3.35	615	79
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	78
Ryan Sublette R 2024 · 5.72 FIP	25	SU	5.72	19.9%	17.5%	3.8%	.214	4.47	18.6%	5.0%	53	-1.25	3.74	203	78
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	78
John McMillon R 2024 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	21.1%	15.5%	5.5%	.296	6.00	21.3%	6.2%	36	-0.31	2.28	152	78
Christopher Troye R 2024 · 5.46 FIP	25	SU	5.46	24.2%	17.0%	4.1%	.282	5.61	19.1%	-3.8%	30	+0.15	3.42	158	78
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	78
Jake Barrett R 2017 · 5.20 FIP	26	SU	5.20	20.1%	11.5%	4.2%	.267	2.90	26.9%	15.2%	69	-2.30	1.48	230	77
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.1%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.56	16.9%	9.7%	85	-1.57	3.20	213	77
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	77
Hunter Dollander R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	26	SU	6.77	17.6%	18.3%	5.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	106	77
Bryce McGowan R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	24	SU	5.11	19.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.304	3.71	18.8%	6.7%	55	-1.40	3.71	178	76
Tayron Guerrero R 2017 · 5.93 FIP	26	SU	5.93	18.6%	18.9%	3.6%	.250	4.65	23.0%	9.6%	104	-1.28	2.12	376	76
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	53	19.9%	15.7%	1.35	5.16
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*