Tayron Guerrero
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.2
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'8" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.6%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%12.1%
IP22
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL3030
CMD4040
K†6060
FB Velo
p9098.9
Whiff%
p6828.1%
K%
p3419.9%
xwOBA vs
p100.363
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 48 | 0 | 56 | 241 | 61 | 31 | 3 | 20.9% | 13.9% | 1.7% | 3.05 | 4.04 | +0.6 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 45 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 51 | 23 | 4 | 19.9% | 11.3% | 1.8% | 4.35 | 3.82 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | New Orleans Baby Cakes | 34 | 0 | 36 | 168 | 40 | 29 | 6 | 18.6% | 18.9% | 3.6% | 4.46 | 5.92 | -0.4 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 63 | 0 | 61 | 278 | 70 | 30 | 8 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 5.16 | 4.15 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 57 | 1 | 51 | 237 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 19.9% | 16.7% | 3.2% | 6.14 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 30 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 18 | 1 | 19 | 98 | 25 | 12 | 2 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 2.0% | 6.63 | 3.91 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 20 | 0 | 23 | 117 | 20 | 22 | 3 | 15.0% | 19.7% | 2.7% | 11.51 | 5.82 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 33 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 33 | 1 | 36 | 169 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 18.2% | 7.5% | 0.8% | 5.70 | 2.96 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 5 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | BOS | 22 | — | 22 | 95 | 25 | 10 | 3 | 26.7% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 28 | 111 | 31 | 11 | 3 | 28.2% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 3.65 | 3.42 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 21 | — | 21 | 89 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 323 | 3 | 339 | 1544 | 320 | 209 | 37 | 20.7% | 13.5% | 2.4% | 5.25 | 4.40 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 2 | 200 | 910 | 189 | 123 | 22 | 20.7% | 13.5% | 2.4% | 5.25 | 4.40 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tayron Guerrero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 26.7% | 10.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.35 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 21 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 73 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 70 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 70 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 69 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 67 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 66 |
| Radhames Liz R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.49 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.7% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 110 | 66 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 65 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.14 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 5.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 212 | 65 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.72 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 303 | 65 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 64 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.46 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 183 | -0.31 | 2.15 | 488 | 64 |
| Rafael Dolis R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 19.9% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 162 | 64 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 63 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .412 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 137 | 63 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 63 |
| Josh Lowey R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.45 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 426 | 62 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 62 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 62 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 61 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.