Tayron Guerrero
P
Boston Red Sox
Age 35
RHP
6'8" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 32 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10596vR 87
ERA3.96
FIP3.77
K%23.8%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP32
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6895.8
Whiff%
p6026.9%
K%
p8528.7%
xwOBA vs
p900.252
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 241 | 61 | 31 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.9% | 13.9% | 7.0% | 1.9% | 3.05 | 4.16 | — |
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 56 | 241 | 61 | 31 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.3% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 1.2% | 3.05 | 3.28 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 51 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 1.4% | 4.35 | 3.61 | +0.6 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 51 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 1.8% | 4.35 | 3.47 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 36 | 168 | 40 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 18.9% | -0.3% | 3.5% | 4.46 | 5.85 | — |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 36 | 168 | 40 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 17.3% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 4.46 | 5.44 | — |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 61 | 278 | 70 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 14.6% | 3.2% | 5.16 | 4.06 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 61 | 278 | 70 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 10.8% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 5.16 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 57 | 1 | 51 | 237 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 2% | 0.9 | 19.9% | 16.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 6.14 | 5.41 | -0.5 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 57 | 1 | 51 | 237 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 2% | 0.9 | 19.0% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 6.14 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 30 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 18 | 1 | 19 | 98 | 25 | 12 | 2 | 6% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 9.6% | 1.6% | 6.63 | 3.73 | — |
| 2021 | 30 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 18 | 1 | 19 | 98 | 25 | 12 | 2 | 6% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 2.0% | 6.63 | 3.73 | — |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 20 | 0 | 23 | 117 | 20 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.0% | 19.7% | -4.7% | 2.5% | 11.51 | 5.73 | — |
| 2023 | 32 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 20 | 0 | 23 | 117 | 20 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 18.8% | -1.7% | 2.6% | 11.51 | 5.97 | — |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 36 | 169 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 3% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 0.9% | 5.70 | 3.01 | — |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 36 | 169 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 3% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 6.5% | 16.0% | 0.6% | 5.70 | 2.27 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 34 | 0 | 39 | 155 | 45 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.3% | 5.4% | 22.0% | 1.3% | 1.62 | 2.18 | +1.1 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | BOS | 31 | 0 | 32 | 137 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.77 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | BOS | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.77 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 35 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 71 | 292 | 78 | 21 | 6 | — | — | 26.6% | 7.3% | 19.3% | 1.9% | 2.68 | 2.90 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 35 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 52 | 219 | 78 | 21 | 6 | — | — | 35.5% | 9.7% | 25.8% | 2.6% | 3.70 | 2.75 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | BOS | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 36 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 4.77 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 40 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | BOS | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 4.77 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 234 | 0 | 232 | 1025 | 236 | 113 | 31 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.22 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 201 | 0 | 200 | 882 | 203 | 97 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 352 | 3 | 373 | 1683 | 356 | 216 | 39 | 1% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 12.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 4.94 | 4.20 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 2 | 200 | 902 | 191 | 116 | 21 | 1% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 12.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 4.94 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tayron Guerrero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.74 | 22.1% | 12.1% | 86 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 80 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 80 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 78 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 77 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 75 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.71 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .276 | 3.35 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 46 | -0.36 | 3.08 | 349 | 74 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 73 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 73 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 71 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 71 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 71 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 71 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 70 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 69 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 68 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 183 | -0.28 | 1.99 | 488 | 67 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 67 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .246 | 3.44 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | +0.01 | 2.01 | 380 | 67 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 65 |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.78 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 197 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 46 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.65 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |