Tayron Guerrero — OGILVIE

Tayron Guerrero P Boston Red Sox

Age 35 RHP 6'8" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9284vR 76

ERA3.95

FIP3.73

K%22.2%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%14.2%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p90100.2

Whiff%

p3623.3%

p5222.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.260

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	241	61	31	3	0%	1.2	20.9%	13.9%	7.0%	1.7%	3.05	4.02	—
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	56	241	61	31	3	0%	1.2	25.3%	12.9%	12.4%	1.2%	3.05	3.28	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	52	220	51	23	4	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.3%	8.7%	1.7%	4.35	3.77	+0.5
2016	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	52	220	51	23	4	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.5%	12.7%	1.8%	4.35	3.47	+0.7
2017	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	36	168	40	29	6	0%	1.1	18.6%	18.9%	-0.3%	3.7%	4.46	5.93	—
2017	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	36	168	40	29	6	0%	1.1	23.8%	17.3%	6.5%	3.6%	4.46	5.44	—
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	61	278	70	30	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	10.8%	14.6%	3.1%	5.16	4.05	+0.4
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	61	278	70	30	8	0%	1.0	25.2%	10.8%	14.4%	2.9%	5.16	3.99	+0.4
2019	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	57	1	51	237	45	38	7	2%	0.9	19.9%	16.7%	3.2%	3.4%	6.14	5.40	-0.5
2019	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	57	1	51	237	45	38	7	2%	0.9	19.0%	16.0%	3.0%	3.0%	6.14	5.34	-0.5
2021	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	18	1	19	98	25	12	2	6%	1.1	22.4%	12.9%	9.6%	1.9%	6.63	3.87	—
2021	30	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	18	1	19	98	25	12	2	6%	1.1	25.5%	12.2%	13.3%	2.0%	6.63	3.73	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	20	0	23	117	20	22	3	0%	1.1	14.2%	16.9%	-2.7%	2.7%	11.51	5.51	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	20	0	23	117	20	22	3	0%	1.1	14.2%	16.9%	-2.7%	2.7%	11.51	5.51	—
2023	32	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	20	0	23	117	20	22	3	0%	1.1	17.1%	18.8%	-1.7%	2.6%	11.51	5.97	—
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	36	169	38	11	1	3%	1.1	17.1%	6.4%	10.7%	0.8%	5.70	2.90	—
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	36	169	38	11	1	3%	1.1	17.1%	6.4%	10.7%	0.8%	5.70	2.90	—
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	36	169	38	11	1	3%	1.1	22.5%	6.5%	16.0%	0.6%	5.70	2.27	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			151	0	145	652	147	72	17	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.0%	11.5%	2.6%	5.10	4.09	+0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	53	0	58	234	58	12	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	4.9%	18.3%	0.9%	2.47	2.24	+1.6
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	53	0	58	234	58	12	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	4.9%	18.3%	0.9%	2.47	2.24	+1.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	AAA RAW	BOS	15	0	20	75	22	6	0	0%	1.3	29.3%	8.0%	21.3%	0.0%	0.92	1.64	—
2026	35	MLB RAW	BOS	38	0	39	159	36	6	2	0%	1.0	22.6%	3.8%	18.9%	1.3%	3.26	2.36	+1.0
SO FAR	35	MLB RAW	BOS	38	0	39	159	36	6	2	0%	1.0	22.6%	3.8%	18.9%	1.3%	3.26	2.36	+1.0
ROS	35	MLB MLE	BOS	2	0	2	7	2	1	0	0%	0.9	22.2%	8.0%	14.2%	2.7%	3.95	3.73	+0.0
ROS	35	MLB CTX	BOS	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	22.2%	8.0%	14.2%	2.7%	3.95	3.73	+0.0
2026 TOT	35	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	60	241	60	13	2	—	—	24.7%	5.2%	19.5%	0.9%	2.51	2.28	+1.8
FULL	35	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	40	170	60	13	2	—	—	35.0%	7.4%	27.6%	1.3%	3.73	1.79	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	BOS	44	0	46	193	40	16	5	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.3%	12.5%	2.8%	4.28	4.34	+0.1
2028	37	MLB MLE	BOS	38	0	40	169	33	15	5	0%	1.1	19.7%	9.0%	10.7%	3.3%	4.56	4.74	-0.1
2027	36	MLB CTX	BOS	40	0	42	177	37	15	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.3%	12.5%	2.8%	4.28	4.34	+0.1
2028	37	MLB CTX	BOS	31	0	33	139	27	12	5	0%	1.1	19.7%	9.0%	10.7%	3.3%	4.56	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		224	0	221	974	212	100	27	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.2%	11.6%	2.7%	4.86	4.06	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		202	0	200	882	192	91	24	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.2%	11.6%	2.7%	4.86	4.06	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		371	3	393	1762	365	214	39	1%	1.1	20.7%	12.2%	8.6%	2.2%	4.90	4.11	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		189	2	200	897	186	109	20	1%	1.1	20.7%	12.2%	8.6%	2.2%	4.90	4.11	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tayron Guerrero (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	21.4%	9.5%	2.9%	—	4.53	20.3%	11.7%	86	+0.09	—	—	—
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	79
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	77
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	76
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	74
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	74
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	74
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	73
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	71
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	71
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	71
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	70
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	69
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	68
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	68
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	67
Ramon E Ramirez R 2017 · 3.49 FIP	35	SU	3.49	14.0%	5.8%	1.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	140	66
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	244	66
Wade Davis R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	35	SU	5.18	20.0%	10.0%	4.5%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.00	320	66
Rafael Dolis R 2022 · 3.61 FIP	34	SU	3.61	19.9%	11.9%	1.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	162	65
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	147	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	20.7%	8.9%	1.15	4.50
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97