Tayron Guerrero

P Boston Red Sox

Age 36 RHP 6'8" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	32	AAACIN	20	0	23	11.51	5.97	17.1%	18.8%	—	K 14.7% · BB 16.9% · FIP 5.47
2024	33	MIX2 levels	33	1	36	5.70	2.27	22.5%	6.5%	—	K 17.8% · BB 6.4% · FIP 2.85
2026	35	MIX2 levels	55	0	60	2.39	2.09	26.1%	5.4%	1.8	K 24.9% · BB 5.1% · FIP 2.12
2027PROJ	36	MLBBOS	49	0	51	3.50	3.26	26.9%	6.1%	0.8
2028PROJ90% MLB	37	MLBBOS	36	0	38	3.60	3.66	25.8%	6.8%	0.4
2029PROJ76% MLB	38	MLBBOS	20	0	21	3.90	4.10	24.6%	7.5%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs90

K%64

Form4.60 ERA (proj 3.50) · K 18.8% (proj 26.9%) · BB 7.8% (proj 6.1%) ▼▼ last 90d · 16 IP through Oct 27

CompsMatt Bush (age 36) · Seunghwan Oh (age 36) · Tony Barnette (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8577vR 69

ERA3.50

FIP3.26

K%26.9%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%20.7%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p90100.2

Whiff%

p4224.1%

p6424.7%

xwOBA vs

p900.254

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	241	61	31	3	0%	1.2	20.9%	13.9%	7.0%	1.7%	3.05	4.02	—
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	56	241	61	31	3	0%	1.2	25.3%	12.9%	12.4%	1.2%	3.05	3.28	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	52	220	51	23	4	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.3%	8.7%	1.7%	4.35	3.77	+0.5
2016	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	52	220	51	23	4	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.5%	12.7%	1.8%	4.35	3.47	+0.7
2017	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	36	168	40	29	6	0%	1.1	18.6%	18.9%	-0.3%	3.7%	4.46	5.93	—
2017	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	36	168	40	29	6	0%	1.1	23.8%	17.3%	6.5%	3.6%	4.46	5.44	—
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	61	278	70	30	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	10.8%	14.6%	3.1%	5.16	4.05	+0.4
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	61	278	70	30	8	0%	1.0	25.2%	10.8%	14.4%	2.9%	5.16	3.99	+0.4
2019	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	57	1	51	237	45	38	7	2%	0.9	19.9%	16.7%	3.2%	3.4%	6.14	5.40	-0.5
2019	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	57	1	51	237	45	38	7	2%	0.9	19.0%	16.0%	3.0%	3.0%	6.14	5.34	-0.5
2021	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	18	1	19	98	25	12	2	6%	1.1	22.4%	12.9%	9.6%	1.9%	6.63	3.87	—
2021	30	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	18	1	19	98	25	12	2	6%	1.1	25.5%	12.2%	13.3%	2.0%	6.63	3.73	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	20	0	23	117	20	22	3	0%	1.1	14.7%	16.9%	-2.2%	2.7%	11.51	5.47	—
2023	32	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	20	0	23	117	20	22	3	0%	1.1	17.1%	18.8%	-1.7%	2.6%	11.51	5.97	—
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	36	169	38	11	1	3%	1.1	17.8%	6.4%	11.4%	0.8%	5.70	2.85	—
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	36	169	38	11	1	3%	1.1	17.8%	6.4%	11.4%	0.8%	5.70	2.85	—
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	36	169	38	11	1	3%	1.1	22.5%	6.5%	16.0%	0.6%	5.70	2.27	—
2026	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	60	241	63	13	2	0%	1.1	24.9%	5.1%	19.7%	0.9%	2.39	2.12	+1.8
2026	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	60	241	63	13	2	0%	1.1	24.9%	5.1%	19.7%	0.9%	2.39	2.12	+1.8
2026	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	60	241	63	13	2	0%	1.1	26.1%	5.4%	20.7%	0.8%	2.39	2.09	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			153	0	147	659	152	73	17	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.1%	12.0%	2.6%	5.03	4.03	+0.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	BOS	49	0	51	215	58	13	5	0%	1.0	26.9%	6.1%	20.7%	2.3%	3.50	3.26	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	BOS	40	0	42	176	45	12	5	0%	1.0	25.8%	6.8%	19.0%	2.7%	3.60	3.66	+0.5
2029	38	MLB MLE	BOS	26	0	27	114	28	9	4	0%	1.0	24.6%	7.5%	17.1%	3.2%	3.90	4.10	+0.1
2030	39	MLB MLE	BOS	14	0	14	61	14	5	2	0%	1.0	23.5%	8.2%	15.3%	3.6%	4.28	4.53	+0.0
2028	37	MLB CTX	BOS	36	0	38	160	41	11	4	0%	1.1	25.8%	6.8%	19.0%	2.7%	3.60	3.66	+0.4
2029	38	MLB CTX	BOS	20	0	21	89	22	7	3	0%	1.1	24.6%	7.5%	17.1%	3.2%	3.90	4.10	+0.1
2030	39	MLB CTX	BOS	9	0	9	38	9	3	1	0%	1.0	23.5%	8.2%	15.3%	3.6%	4.28	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		217	0	214	943	223	93	25	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.9%	13.8%	2.7%	4.64	3.84	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		203	0	200	882	208	87	23	0%	1.0	23.7%	9.9%	13.8%	2.7%	4.64	3.84	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		373	3	395	1769	372	215	39	1%	1.1	21.1%	12.2%	8.9%	2.2%	4.88	4.08	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		189	2	200	896	189	109	20	1%	1.1	21.1%	12.2%	8.9%	2.2%	4.88	4.08	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 20 IPFIP 1.64 → 1.88 (+0.25)K% 29.3% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.33%	—	×0.860	25.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×0.900	7.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.64 → 1.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 33 IPFIP 2.61 → 2.85 (+0.24)K% 20.6% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.65%	—	×0.860	17.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.10%	—	×0.900	6.39%
HR / BF /BF	0.65%	÷0.886	×1.100	0.80%

Result: FIP 2.61 → 2.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 23 IPFIP 5.45 → 5.47 (+0.03)K% 17.1% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.09%	—	×0.860	14.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.80%	—	×0.900	16.92%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.054	×1.100	2.68%

Result: FIP 5.45 → 5.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAACharlotte Knights · 19 IPFIP 3.62 → 3.87 (+0.25)K% 25.5% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.51%	—	×0.880	22.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.24%	—	×1.050	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.190	×1.100	1.89%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 16 IPFIP 5.18 → 5.92 (+0.73)K% 29.3% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.33%	—	×0.810	23.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.67%	—	×1.100	20.53%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.185	×1.200	4.05%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 5.18 → 5.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 15 IPFIP 5.41 → 5.95 (+0.54)K% 15.1% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.07%	—	×0.880	13.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.44%	—	×1.050	17.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷0.928	×1.100	3.25%

Result: FIP 5.41 → 5.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 5 IPFIP 4.79 → 6.64 (+1.86)K% 35.0% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.00%	—	×0.770	26.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.00%	—	×1.150	17.25%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷0.944	×1.250	6.62%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 4.79 → 6.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAJacksonville Suns · 38 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.10 (+0.41)K% 26.0% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.97%	—	×0.810	21.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.44%	—	×1.100	9.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.423	×1.200	1.10%

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tayron Guerrero (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.26	26.9%	6.1%	2.3%	—	3.95	25.0%	17.7%	83	+0.69	—	—	—
Matt Bush R 2022 · 3.73 FIP	36	SU	3.73	30.3%	6.6%	4.3%	.224	3.79	26.2%	17.5%	36	+0.06	2.87	249	66
Seunghwan Oh R 2018 · 2.83 FIP	36	SU	2.83	28.8%	5.8%	2.6%	.257	5.75	18.2%	11.4%	18	+2.92	1.87	226	65
Tony Barnette R 2018 · 2.61 FIP	34	SU	2.61	25.0%	4.8%	1.8%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	2.61	144	63
Hector Navarro R 2016 · 2.30 FIP	36	SU	2.30	20.1%	7.0%	0.0%	.333	3.53	11.5%	5.9%	46	+1.23	2.30	126	62
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	57
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	55
Daniel Bard R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	36	SU	3.62	26.3%	11.5%	2.3%	.337	3.64	24.6%	10.3%	110	+0.02	2.56	456	55
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	54
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2003 · 3.30 FIP	35	SU	3.30	19.3%	8.7%	1.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	223	54
Buddy Carlyle R 2014 · 2.57 FIP	36	SU	2.57	23.5%	4.2%	1.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	2.57	274	54
Roy Corcoran R 2015 · 2.87 FIP	35	SU	2.87	17.7%	8.2%	0.4%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	129	53
Akinori Otsuka R 2007 · 2.39 FIP	35	SU	2.39	17.6%	6.1%	0.0%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	232	51
Scott Atchison R 2012 · 2.52 FIP	36	SU	2.52	18.0%	3.0%	1.0%	.256	3.67	15.9%	11.3%	137	+1.15	2.52	340	49
Brendan Donnelly R 2007 · 2.40 FIP	36	SU	2.40	16.7%	5.6%	0.0%	.271	4.75	19.1%	6.0%	70	+2.35	2.23	385	49
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	48
Peter Moylan R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	36	SU	3.11	18.4%	8.2%	0.9%	.259	3.84	18.2%	9.1%	145	+0.73	2.54	431	47
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	45
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	42
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	38
Koji Uehara R 2011 · 2.95 FIP	36	SU	2.95	35.0%	3.3%	4.3%	.194	2.13	34.9%	32.1%	175	-0.82	1.28	481	35

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	40	24.3%	9.3%	1.03	4.39
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Tony Fossas ('88-'99, 2 WAR*)	2.1	42	21.9%*	9.3%*	0.99*	3.88*
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*