Luis Castillo
OF Wisconsin Timber Rattlers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | ACarolina Mudc… | 462 | .207/.313/.389 | 18 | 4 | 45 | — | .157/.239/.281 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+/ROKMIL | 132 | .117/.252/.216 | 2 | 0 | -5 | — | .076/.183/.137 |
| 2026 | 22 | A+MIL | 440 | .245/.362/.469 | 20 | 3 | 82 | — | .202/.288/.372 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBMIL | 1 | .195/.280/.349 | 0 | 0 | 78 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBMIL | 115 | .200/.285/.360 | 4 | 1 | 82 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBMIL | 185 | .203/.288/.366 | 6 | 2 | 84 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 34 / POW 53
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 156 | 139 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 252 | 329 | 302 | 631 | 50 | 302 | 15 | 10 | 292 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 113 | 100 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 250 | 336 | 360 | 696 | 110 | 306 | 22 | 10 | 319 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 137 | 118 | 35 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 297 | 390 | 483 | 873 | 186 | 364 | 20 | 12 | 384 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 166 | 146 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 46 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 311 | 322 | 633 | 96 | 303 | 28 | 10 | 289 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Brewers | — | 26 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 471 | 609 | 647 | 1.256 | 176 | 500 | 15 | 23 | 483 | 199 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 462 | 396 | 82 | 16 | 1 | 18 | 58 | 118 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 313 | 389 | 702 | 182 | 242 | 26 | 13 | 313 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 114 | 94 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 96 | 248 | 202 | 450 | 106 | 125 | 32 | 17 | 221 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | ACL Brewers | — | 18 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 278 | 294 | 572 | 59 | 286 | 17 | 6 | 261 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 440 | 367 | 90 | 20 | 1 | 20 | 64 | 104 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 245 | 362 | 469 | 830 | 223 | 281 | 24 | 15 | 364 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 156 | 143 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 168 | 232 | 196 | 428 | 28 | 209 | 20 | 7 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 113 | 103 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 204 | 274 | 282 | 556 | 78 | 281 | 31 | 7 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 137 | 125 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 287 | 352 | 639 | 128 | 302 | 30 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 166 | 151 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 63 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 166 | 232 | 225 | 457 | 60 | 262 | 38 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 26 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 421 | 522 | 579 | 1.101 | 158 | 414 | 23 | 15 | 463 | 199 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 462 | 413 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 41 | 158 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 157 | 239 | 281 | 519 | 123 | 210 | 34 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 114 | 99 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 177 | 121 | 298 | 61 | 111 | 44 | 12 | 159 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 18 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 222 | 235 | 458 | 59 | 211 | 22 | 6 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 440 | 387 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 16 | 44 | 132 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 288 | 372 | 660 | 171 | 246 | 30 | 10 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 156 | 143 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 168 | 232 | 196 | 428 | 28 | 212 | 20 | 7 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 156 | 139 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 252 | 329 | 302 | 631 | 50 | 302 | 15 | 10 | 292 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 250 | 227 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 75 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 216 | 285 | 322 | 607 | 106 | 302 | 30 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 250 | 218 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 53 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 275 | 365 | 427 | 792 | 151 | 338 | 21 | 11 | 355 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 192 | 170 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 69 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 194 | 267 | 265 | 532 | 71 | 298 | 36 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 192 | 163 | 41 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 50 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 252 | 348 | 356 | 703 | 104 | 330 | 26 | 11 | 315 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 462 | 413 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 41 | 158 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 157 | 239 | 281 | 519 | 123 | 214 | 34 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | Carolina Mudcats | — | 462 | 396 | 82 | 16 | 1 | 18 | 58 | 118 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 313 | 389 | 702 | 182 | 242 | 26 | 13 | 313 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 132 | 116 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 183 | 138 | 321 | 60 | 129 | 41 | 11 | 160 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 132 | 111 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 117 | 252 | 216 | 468 | 99 | 157 | 30 | 15 | 227 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 440 | 387 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 16 | 44 | 132 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 288 | 372 | 660 | 171 | 253 | 30 | 10 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 440 | 367 | 90 | 20 | 1 | 20 | 64 | 104 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 245 | 362 | 469 | 830 | 223 | 281 | 24 | 15 | 364 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 156 | 143 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 168 | 232 | 196 | 428 | 28 | 209 | 20 | 7 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 250 | 226 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 75 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 217 | 285 | 323 | 608 | 106 | 293 | 30 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 192 | 173 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 69 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 191 | 267 | 260 | 527 | 69 | 283 | 36 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 462 | 415 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 41 | 158 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 157 | 239 | 280 | 518 | 123 | 210 | 34 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 132 | 116 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 183 | 138 | 321 | 60 | 125 | 41 | 11 | 160 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 440 | 390 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 16 | 44 | 132 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 288 | 369 | 657 | 169 | 246 | 30 | 10 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 462 | 415 | 65 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 41 | 158 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 157 | 239 | 280 | 518 | 123 | 210 | 34 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 132 | 116 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 183 | 138 | 321 | 60 | 125 | 41 | 11 | 160 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 440 | 390 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 16 | 44 | 132 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 288 | 369 | 657 | 169 | 246 | 30 | 10 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIL | 0% | 517 | 457 | 90 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 52 | 154 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 197 | 282 | 348 | 630 | 151 | 254 | 30 | 10 | 283 | 78 | -14 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +11 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIL | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 280 | 349 | 629 | 154 | 250 | 0 | 0 | 283 | 78 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIL | 30% | 380 | 337 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 38 | 111 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 286 | 359 | 645 | 157 | 257 | 29 | 10 | 289 | 82 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIL | 44% | 418 | 371 | 76 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 42 | 120 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 205 | 289 | 365 | 654 | 160 | 260 | 29 | 10 | 293 | 84 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIL | 51% | 438 | 389 | 80 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 44 | 125 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 291 | 367 | 658 | 160 | 261 | 29 | 10 | 295 | 86 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +9 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIL | 52% | 445 | 395 | 82 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 44 | 126 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 292 | 367 | 658 | 159 | 262 | 28 | 10 | 295 | 86 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +10 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIL | 53% | 444 | 394 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 44 | 125 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 291 | 364 | 655 | 156 | 263 | 28 | 10 | 293 | 85 | -8 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIL | 57% | 435 | 387 | 79 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 43 | 124 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 288 | 358 | 646 | 152 | 261 | 29 | 10 | 290 | 82 | -9 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIL | 55% | 423 | 377 | 76 | 15 | 1 | 13 | 41 | 122 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 202 | 284 | 350 | 634 | 147 | 259 | 29 | 10 | 285 | 79 | -11 | -0 | -2 | -3 | +9 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIL | 30% | 115 | 102 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 285 | 360 | 645 | 160 | 253 | 30 | 10 | 289 | 82 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIL | 44% | 185 | 164 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 288 | 366 | 654 | 163 | 255 | 29 | 10 | 293 | 84 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIL | 51% | 222 | 197 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 63 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 205 | 290 | 368 | 658 | 163 | 257 | 28 | 10 | 294 | 86 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIL | 52% | 233 | 207 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 66 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 290 | 368 | 658 | 162 | 258 | 28 | 10 | 294 | 86 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIL | 53% | 237 | 211 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 67 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 289 | 365 | 654 | 159 | 258 | 28 | 10 | 293 | 85 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIL | 57% | 248 | 221 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 71 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 204 | 287 | 359 | 645 | 155 | 257 | 29 | 10 | 289 | 82 | -5 | -0 | -1 | -1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIL | 55% | 231 | 206 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 67 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 201 | 283 | 350 | 633 | 150 | 254 | 29 | 10 | 285 | 79 | -6 | -0 | -1 | -1 | +5 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1471 | 1308 | 268 | 50 | 6 | 49 | 143 | 421 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 205 | 287 | 365 | 651 | 160 | 259 | 29 | 10 | 291 | 73 | -29 | -0 | -2 | -9 | +32 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 119 | 22 | 3 | 22 | 63 | 186 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 206 | 287 | 369 | 656 | 163 | 260 | 29 | 10 | 291 | 73 | -13 | -0 | -1 | -4 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4825 | 4292 | 837 | 165 | 15 | 135 | 462 | 1435 | 29 | 42 | 14 | 195 | 278 | 335 | 612 | 140 | 255 | 30 | 10 | 276 | 73 | -64 | +2 | -4 | -19 | +69 | -1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 112 | 22 | 2 | 18 | 62 | 193 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 194 | 276 | 332 | 609 | 138 | 253 | 30 | 10 | 276 | 73 | -13 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 440 PAwOBA .359 → .289 (−70)K% 23.6% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.64% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 30.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 10.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×0.998 | 17.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×0.998 | 6.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.005 | ×0.998 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 6.07% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .359 → .289; ISO .223 → .178; BABIP .281 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 114 PAwOBA .219 → .159 (−59)K% 32.5% → 43.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.46% | ÷0.943 | ×1.270 | — | — | 43.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.965 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 12.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 7.02% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×1.012 | 6.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.51% | ÷1.013 | ×0.810 | ×1.012 | ×1.012 | 2.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.75% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.012 | ×1.012 | 1.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.51% | ÷1.246 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.28% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 89, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .219 → .159; ISO .106 → .070; BABIP .125 → .111. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Brewers · 18 PAwOBA .254 → .169 (−85)K% 16.7% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.973 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.011 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 3.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.031 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 16.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.109 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 4.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 106, 2B 122, 3B 100, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .254 → .169; ISO .059 → .034; BABIP .286 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ACarolina Mudcats · 462 PAwOBA .308 → .235 (−73)K% 25.5% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.54% | ÷1.013 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.34% | ÷0.980 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.91% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×1.015 | 14.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.76% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | ×1.015 | 5.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷1.007 | ×0.910 | ×1.011 | ×1.015 | 0.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.47% | ÷1.101 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 4.78% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 113, 2B 92, 3B 101, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .308 → .235; ISO .182 → .132; BABIP .242 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ACarolina Mudcats · 166 PAwOBA .285 → .214 (−71)K% 27.7% → 38.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.71% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.64% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.049 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×1.030 | 22.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.090 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×1.030 | 3.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.00% | ÷1.072 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.31% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .285 → .214; ISO .096 → .067; BABIP .303 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Brewers · 26 PAwOBA .534 → .463 (−71)K% 15.4% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.969 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 23.08% | ÷0.998 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 14.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.46% | ÷0.991 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 31.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.952 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 17.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.923 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.898 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 98, 2B 90, 3B 85, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .534 → .463; ISO .176 → .167; BABIP .500 → .414. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Brewers Gold · 137 PAwOBA .377 → .275 (−102)K% 20.4% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.44% | ÷0.991 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.41% | ÷1.017 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.33% | ÷0.979 | ×0.820 | ×1.045 | ×1.008 | 20.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.720 | ×1.045 | ×1.008 | 7.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×1.045 | ×1.008 | 1.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.144 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 2.29% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .377 → .275; ISO .186 → .130; BABIP .364 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ACarolina Mudcats · 113 PAwOBA .311 → .246 (−65)K% 22.1% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.12% | ÷0.977 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.73% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 7.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.77% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×1.045 | 25.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.67% | ÷1.036 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×1.045 | 2.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.136 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 2.94% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 107, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .311 → .246; ISO .110 → .076; BABIP .306 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).