Tyler Dearden — OGILVIE

Tyler DeardenLF Wichita Wind Surge

Age 28 L/R 6'2" / 185 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .275 / .309

PA12

HR0

K%26

BB%6

ISO91

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 32

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER32

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	19	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	94	74	19	5	0	2	14	28	5	1	1	257	409	405	814	149	386	30	15	371	137	+4	-0	—	—	+2	0.6
2019	21	A	Greenville Drive	—	232	208	42	7	2	4	16	80	3	0	0	202	269	312	581	111	306	34	7	259	62	-11	+0	—	—	+5	-0.6
2021	23	A+	Greenville Drive	—	418	352	92	20	0	24	55	114	7	1	0	261	372	523	895	261	312	27	13	389	149	+25	+0	—	—	+9	3.4
2022	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	376	316	83	16	1	8	49	103	6	0	2	263	372	396	768	133	357	27	13	345	120	+9	-1	—	—	+8	1.7
2023	25	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	286	248	67	12	1	7	33	70	3	0	1	270	363	411	774	141	349	24	12	347	121	+7	-0	—	—	+6	1.3
2024	26	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	105	95	21	9	0	0	7	27	1	0	0	221	282	316	597	95	300	26	7	267	67	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2024	26	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	35	33	12	3	0	0	0	8	2	0	0	364	400	455	855	91	480	23	0	385	147	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	27	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	134	119	33	4	1	2	12	24	2	2	0	277	353	378	732	101	330	18	9	330	110	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	94	80	13	3	0	1	8	40	5	1	1	163	280	237	517	75	302	43	9	248	54	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2019	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	232	214	31	5	1	3	10	112	3	0	0	145	194	220	413	75	261	48	4	175	5	-26	+0	—	—	+5	-2.2
2021	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	418	369	74	14	0	21	38	153	7	1	0	201	287	409	697	209	257	37	9	298	88	-6	+0	—	—	+9	0.3
2022	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	376	333	75	13	1	6	32	126	6	0	2	225	305	324	629	99	326	34	9	282	77	-10	-1	—	—	+8	-0.3
2023	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	286	259	62	9	1	5	22	86	3	0	1	239	306	340	646	100	335	30	8	288	81	-6	-0	—	—	+6	-0.1
2024	26	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	105	98	18	8	0	0	4	34	1	0	0	184	223	265	489	82	259	32	4	213	30	-9	+0	—	—	+2	-0.7
2024	26	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	35	33	9	2	0	0	0	11	2	0	0	273	314	333	648	61	422	31	0	290	82	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2025	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	134	123	30	3	1	2	8	31	2	2	0	244	301	333	634	89	307	23	6	276	73	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2017	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	94	80	13	3	0	1	8	40	5	1	1	163	280	237	517	75	308	43	9	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	—	94	74	19	5	0	2	14	28	5	1	1	257	409	405	814	149	386	30	15	371	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	232	214	31	5	1	3	10	112	3	0	0	145	194	220	413	75	283	48	4	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A RAW	Greenville Drive	—	232	208	42	7	2	4	16	80	3	0	0	202	269	312	581	111	306	34	7	259	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	418	369	74	14	0	21	38	153	7	1	0	201	287	409	697	209	266	37	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	—	418	352	92	20	0	24	55	114	7	1	0	261	372	523	895	261	312	27	13	389	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	376	333	75	13	1	6	32	126	6	0	2	225	305	324	629	99	335	34	9	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	—	376	316	83	16	1	8	49	103	6	0	2	263	372	396	768	133	357	27	13	345	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	286	259	62	9	1	5	22	86	3	0	1	239	306	340	646	100	337	30	8	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	—	286	248	67	12	1	7	33	70	3	0	1	270	363	411	774	141	349	24	12	347	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	140	131	27	10	0	0	4	45	3	0	0	206	246	282	529	76	307	32	3	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	140	128	33	12	0	0	7	35	3	0	0	258	312	352	663	94	347	25	5	296	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	134	123	30	3	1	2	8	31	2	2	0	244	301	333	634	89	308	23	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	—	134	119	33	4	1	2	12	24	2	2	0	277	353	378	732	101	330	18	9	330	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	94	81	13	3	0	1	8	40	5	1	1	160	280	235	514	74	302	43	9	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	232	217	31	5	1	3	10	112	3	0	0	143	194	217	410	74	261	48	4	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	418	370	74	14	0	21	38	153	7	1	0	200	287	408	696	208	257	37	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	376	335	75	13	1	6	32	126	6	0	2	224	305	322	627	99	326	34	9	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	286	259	62	9	1	5	22	86	3	0	1	239	306	340	646	100	335	30	8	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	140	132	27	10	0	0	4	45	3	0	0	205	246	280	527	76	300	32	3	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	134	123	30	3	1	2	8	31	2	2	0	244	301	333	634	89	307	23	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	286	259	62	9	1	5	22	86	3	0	1	239	306	340	646	100	335	30	8	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	140	132	27	10	0	0	4	45	3	0	0	205	246	280	527	76	300	32	3	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	134	123	30	3	1	2	8	31	2	2	0	244	301	333	634	89	307	23	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	28	MLB MLE	MIN	2%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	182	250	182	432		289	25	8	266	66	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIN	23%	194	178	39	8	1	2	12	49	2	2	1	219	276	309	585	90	288	25	6	270	69	-7	+0	-1	-2	+4	-0.7
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIN	23%	44	40	9	2	0	1	3	11	1	1	0	225	295	350	645	125	289	25	7	262	69	-2	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	44	40	9	2	0	1	3	11	1	1	0	225	295	350	645	125	286	25	7	262	66	-2	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	134	30	0	15	44	162	15	15	0	227	297	354	651	127	287	25	7	262	66	-24	+3	-5	-7	+14	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	1886	1698	353	65	5	40	135	645	31	6	5	208	278	323	601	115	305	34	7	266	66	-8	+0	-1	-2	+4	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	122	22	2	14	47	222	11	2	2	209	280	325	605	116	305	34	7	266	66	-24	+0	-4	-7	+14	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler Dearden (OGILVIE)	28	40	32	45	40	218/275/309	91	289	2	2	26%	6%	66	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kyle Holder 2022 · AAA	28	45→47	39→40	46→45	43	214/271/298	83	280	6	7	25%	6%	61	-1.5	203/264/289	86	290	7	7	31%	7%	57	-1.8	151/217/205	53	224	5	0	33%	7%	19	-1.3
✕Francisco Rivera 2017 · AAA	28	42	41→40	48→40	44	205/247/301	96	239	9	8	19%	5%	53	-2.1	228/283/320	92	274	8	7	19%	7%	71	-0.8	247/302/325	78	292	9	1	18%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Preston Beck 2019 · AAA	28	45→44	42→45	41→45	42	219/268/321	102	276	9	4	24%	6%	66	-1.1	219/276/331	112	284	10	5	25%	7%	72	-0.7	213/274/323	110	275	9	3	25%	7%	66	-0.9
✕Beau Amaral 2019 · AAA	28	46→52	37→40	48→55	42	220/267/294	74	284	5	10	24%	5%	59	-1.7	220/271/321	101	283	9	11	24%	6%	68	-1.0	198/251/303	105	243	11	10	23%	5%	54	-0.5
✕Carlos Penuelas 2015 · AAA	27	50	38→30	43→50	46	238/291/320	81	291	6	10	20%	6%	74	-0.5	249/291/312	63	302	4	11	18%	5%	72	-0.7	256/293/298	42	308	2	9	17%	4%	66	-0.5
✕Webster Rivas 2019 · AA	28	47	40	45→40	41	228/268/317	89	297	8	4	26%	5%	65	-1.2	225/281/329	104	287	11	5	24%	7%	73	-0.6	217/293/305	88	282	8	1	24%	9%	71	-0.4
✕Ethan Chapman 2017 · AA	27	45→47	38→30	47→55	44	216/270/291	75	289	6	12	26%	7%	59	-1.6	228/282/318	90	316	9	21	29%	6%	70	-0.8	230/282/297	67	321	7	29	29%	5%	67	-0.6
✕A.J. Zapp 2006 · AAA	28	45→44	40→45	46→30	39	215/266/310	95	302	7	4	30%	6%	63	-1.4	214/281/331	117	323	11	5	35%	7%	74	-0.5	192/273/310	117	303	12	0	38%	9%	65	-0.7
✕Daniel Nunez 2009 · AAA	27	46→52	39→30	45→50	42	220/285/301	82	303	7	11	28%	7%	68	-1.0	216/278/314	98	301	9	13	29%	6%	68	-1.0	246/325/316	70	314	3	14	21%	7%	85	+0.1
✕Ian Sagdal 2021 · AA	28	48→55	41→45	45	43	233/278/337	104	291	8	5	22%	6%	73	-0.6	219/275/331	112	307	12	7	31%	7%	71	-0.8	187/245/275	88	266	14	0	34%	6%	43	-0.6
✕Blake Davis 2012 · MLB	28	46→55	40	45→50	43	223/264/312	89	274	7	10	22%	5%	61	-1.5	222/256/306	84	280	5	9	22%	4%	57	-1.8	216/247/290	74	274	3	7	21%	4%	47	-1.4
✕Anthony Bemboom 2018 · AAA	28	43	40	46→45	46	210/270/304	93	271	7	7	24%	7%	63	-1.4	202/267/309	107	264	11	4	26%	7%	63	-1.3	201/272/306	105	260	10	2	26%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Cole Sturgeon 2019 · AAA	27	48→49	40	50	42	230/272/319	89	289	7	12	23%	5%	66	-1.1	232/280/341	109	306	10	11	27%	5%	75	-0.5	221/272/318	98	275	10	10	23%	5%	64	-0.9
✕Marcus Lemon 2016 · AAA	28	47→53	39→40	42→45	40	224/266/310	87	289	5	5	24%	5%	62	-1.4	218/270/301	83	288	5	6	25%	5%	61	-1.5	205/260/265	60	273	2	1	24%	5%	48	-1.3
✕Braxton Lee 2021 · MLB	27	47→57	37→30	45→50	45	222/276/298	77	293	4	10	25%	7%	63	-1.3	215/268/297	82	303	4	9	28%	6%	60	-1.6	202/253/262	60	292	0	5	29%	6%	43	-1.4
✕Joey Wong 2016 · AAA	28	47→49	36→40	47→45	43	222/267/297	76	281	3	8	22%	5%	59	-1.6	217/288/282	65	281	4	4	22%	8%	65	-1.2	210/293/264	54	273	3	1	22%	9%	61	-0.8
✕Irving Lopez 2023 · AAA	28	44→50	39→45	50→40	44	212/275/299	87	268	6	8	23%	6%	64	-1.3	227/300/343	116	287	11	6	23%	8%	84	+0.1	225/306/345	121	283	12	0	24%	9%	84	+0.1
✕Jose Salazar 2012 · AAA	28	49	38→40	43→45	46	233/274/311	78	269	6	8	16%	5%	65	-1.2	235/271/317	82	297	5	7	22%	5%	65	-1.2	234/267/301	67	302	3	5	23%	4%	57	-0.8
✕Brian Jeroloman 2013 · AAA	28	43→38	37→40	42→40	48	205/287/272	67	288	6	7	29%	9%	63	-1.4	198/269/264	66	271	5	5	27%	8%	54	-2.0	178/260/236	58	234	5	0	24%	10%	43	-0.9
✕Tucker Nathans 2016 · AA	27	47→48	42→45	47→45	41	228/271/328	101	289	9	6	24%	5%	68	-1.0	223/262/321	98	290	10	6	26%	4%	63	-1.3	218/251/296	79	272	8	2	23%	4%	50	-0.9