Tyler DeardenLF
Wichita Wind Surge
Age 28
L/R
6'2" / 185 lbs
AA
BB +3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
wRC+†73
AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .284 / .334
PA136
HR3
K%29
BB%7
MLB%2%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
36→36
PWR
33→33
SPD
45→45
EYE
41→41
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.2peak
2026
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2034 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-10M | $-15M | -$5M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 94 | 80 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 1 | .163 | .280 | .237 | .517 | .075 | .308 | 43 | 9 | .248 | 48 | -6 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Greenville Drive | 232 | 215 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 109 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .135 | .181 | .205 | .385 | .070 | .252 | 47 | 4 | .169 | -12 | -29 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -2.6 |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 418 | 369 | 75 | 13 | 0 | 23 | 38 | 153 | 7 | 1 | 0 | .203 | .290 | .425 | .715 | .222 | .264 | 37 | 9 | .306 | 92 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +12 | 0.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 376 | 332 | 76 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 132 | 6 | 0 | 2 | .229 | .310 | .337 | .647 | .108 | .348 | 35 | 9 | .284 | 76 | -10 | -1 | +0 | -4 | +11 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 286 | 258 | 63 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 90 | 3 | 0 | 1 | .244 | .313 | .357 | .670 | .112 | .350 | 31 | 8 | .293 | 82 | -6 | -0 | +0 | -3 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | 2 teams | 140 | 131 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 47 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .198 | .239 | .267 | .506 | .069 | .302 | 34 | 3 | .227 | 32 | -11 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | -0.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 134 | 123 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .236 | .293 | .325 | .618 | .089 | .303 | 25 | 6 | .271 | 66 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 136 | 123 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .228 | .296 | .358 | .654 | .130 | .295 | 29 | 7 | .281 | 73 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB 9% | MIN | 194 | 176 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 55 | 2 | 2 | 1 | .222 | .286 | .341 | .627 | .119 | .295 | 28 | 7 | .283 | 75 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB 19% | MIN | 254 | 230 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 72 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .222 | .290 | .339 | .629 | .117 | .293 | 28 | 7 | .283 | 75 | -7 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +7 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB 29% | MIN | 265 | 240 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 75 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .217 | .285 | .329 | .614 | .112 | .292 | 28 | 8 | .281 | 73 | -8 | +0 | -3 | -3 | +8 | -0.6 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB 43% | MIN | 262 | 237 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 75 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .215 | .285 | .329 | .614 | .114 | .290 | 29 | 8 | .278 | 71 | -9 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +7 | -0.8 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB 57% | MIN | 242 | 219 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 71 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .210 | .279 | .315 | .594 | .105 | .289 | 29 | 7 | .272 | 67 | -9 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +7 | -0.9 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB 74% | MIN | 207 | 188 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 63 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .207 | .273 | .319 | .592 | .112 | .287 | 30 | 7 | .266 | 62 | -9 | +0 | -5 | -2 | +6 | -1.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3240 | 2921 | 617 | 112 | 11 | 72 | 239 | 1054 | 47 | 14 | 6 | .211 | .282 | .331 | .613 | .120 | .300 | 33 | 7 | .272 | 67 | -122 | +0 | -19 | -35 | +92 | -8.6 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 586 | 123 | 22 | 2 | 14 | 48 | 211 | 9 | 3 | 1 | .210 | .280 | .326 | .606 | .116 | .299 | 32 | 7 | .272 | 67 | -25 | +0 | -4 | -7 | +18 | -1.7 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 94 | 74 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 1 | .257 | .409 | .405 | .814 | .149 | .386 | 30 | 15 | .371 | 142 | +4 | -0 | — | — | +3 | 0.7 |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Greenville Drive | 232 | 208 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 80 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .202 | .269 | .312 | .581 | .111 | .306 | 34 | 7 | .259 | 57 | -11 | +0 | — | — | +7 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 418 | 352 | 92 | 20 | 0 | 24 | 55 | 114 | 7 | 1 | 0 | .261 | .372 | .523 | .895 | .261 | .312 | 27 | 13 | .389 | 156 | +26 | +0 | — | — | +12 | 3.9 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 376 | 316 | 83 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 49 | 103 | 6 | 0 | 2 | .263 | .372 | .396 | .768 | .133 | .357 | 27 | 13 | .345 | 123 | +10 | -1 | — | — | +11 | 2.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 286 | 248 | 67 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 70 | 3 | 0 | 1 | .270 | .363 | .411 | .774 | .141 | .349 | 24 | 12 | .347 | 124 | +8 | -0 | — | — | +8 | 1.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 105 | 95 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .221 | .282 | .316 | .597 | .095 | .300 | 26 | 7 | .267 | 63 | -4 | +0 | — | — | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 35 | 33 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .364 | .400 | .455 | .855 | .091 | .480 | 23 | 0 | .385 | 153 | +2 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 134 | 119 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .277 | .353 | .378 | .732 | .101 | .330 | 18 | 9 | .330 | 111 | +2 | +0 | — | — | +4 | 0.6 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Tyler Dearden (OGILVIE) | 28 | 36 | 33 | 45 | 41 | .218/.284/.334 | .116 | .295 | 3 | 2 | 29% | 7% | 73 | -0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Preston Beck 2019 · AAA |
28 | 43 | 42→45 | 42→45 | 42 | .215/.264/.319 | .105 | .272 | 10 | 4 | 25% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .215/.271/.329 | .114 | .283 | 11 | 5 | 26% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .208/.270/.325 | .117 | .273 | 10 | 3 | 26% | 7% | 61 | -0.8 |
|
✕Mitchell Tolman 2022 · AAA |
28 | 44→47 | 44→45 | 46→50 | 42 | .215/.280/.332 | .117 | .290 | 11 | 9 | 29% | 6% | 70 | -0.3 | .229/.299/.370 | .141 | .292 | 14 | 9 | 25% | 7% | 88 | +0.9 | .231/.307/.374 | .144 | .287 | 14 | 7 | 23% | 8% | 89 | +0.7 |
|
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2019 · AAA |
28 | 45 | 47→50 | 47→45 | 39 | .224/.271/.354 | .130 | .303 | 15 | 10 | 31% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .234/.282/.385 | .151 | .334 | 17 | 10 | 34% | 5% | 85 | +0.7 | .237/.283/.399 | .163 | .342 | 20 | 6 | 35% | 5% | 87 | +0.4 |
|
✕José Godoy 2023 · MLB |
28 | 44 | 43→45 | 47→30 | 39 | .220/.263/.326 | .106 | .286 | 12 | 4 | 27% | 5% | 60 | -1.0 | .217/.271/.325 | .108 | .274 | 12 | 7 | 25% | 6% | 65 | -0.7 | .234/.301/.338 | .104 | .275 | 15 | 8 | 20% | 8% | 76 | +0.0 |
|
✕Nathan Panther 2008 · AA |
27 | 44→43 | 45 | 44→45 | 48 | .220/.289/.345 | .125 | .271 | 12 | 8 | 23% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 | .229/.296/.356 | .127 | .285 | 12 | 7 | 23% | 8% | 83 | +0.6 | .232/.299/.352 | .120 | .286 | 11 | 5 | 22% | 9% | 81 | +0.2 |
|
✕Nolan Fontana 2019 · MLB |
28 | 40→43 | 42→40 | 51→50 | 49 | .195/.279/.303 | .108 | .267 | 9 | 12 | 29% | 10% | 63 | -0.9 | .201/.288/.323 | .122 | .291 | 12 | 10 | 32% | 10% | 72 | -0.2 | .122/.235/.206 | .084 | .191 | 10 | 0 | 38% | 11% | 20 | -0.8 |
|
✕Blake Tekotte 2015 · MLB |
28 | 38→46 | 44→50 | 43→55 | 39 | .192/.245/.311 | .119 | .266 | 11 | 11 | 31% | 6% | 50 | -1.8 | .217/.277/.339 | .122 | .282 | 12 | 10 | 26% | 6% | 70 | -0.3 | .230/.298/.337 | .108 | .281 | 9 | 10 | 20% | 6% | 75 | -0.0 |
|
✕Francisco Rivera 2017 · AAA |
28 | 42 | 42→40 | 49→40 | 43 | .207/.246/.307 | .100 | .242 | 10 | 9 | 20% | 5% | 48 | -1.9 | .227/.277/.321 | .094 | .272 | 9 | 7 | 19% | 6% | 65 | -0.7 | .251/.306/.338 | .087 | .294 | 10 | 1 | 18% | 7% | 81 | +0.1 |
|
✕Jeremy Farrell 2015 · AAA |
28 | 42→38 | 40→45 | 42→45 | 38 | .202/.265/.299 | .098 | .295 | 7 | 4 | 33% | 6% | 56 | -1.3 | .208/.259/.304 | .096 | .318 | 7 | 6 | 35% | 5% | 53 | -1.5 | .189/.229/.269 | .080 | .302 | 4 | 2 | 38% | 2% | 29 | -1.1 |
|
✕Aaron Rifkin 2007 · AAA |
28 | 42→43 | 48→50 | 47→45 | 45 | .216/.276/.361 | .145 | .270 | 15 | 8 | 26% | 7% | 76 | +0.1 | .222/.273/.365 | .143 | .300 | 15 | 6 | 30% | 5% | 76 | +0.0 | .217/.266/.358 | .142 | .294 | 15 | 3 | 31% | 5% | 69 | -0.4 |
|
✕James Ramsey 2018 · AAA |
28 | 46→50 | 44→45 | 43→45 | 39 | .222/.273/.339 | .117 | .317 | 11 | 7 | 33% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .221/.279/.335 | .114 | .329 | 13 | 10 | 34% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 | .196/.264/.273 | .078 | .298 | 12 | 7 | 36% | 8% | 44 | -0.7 |
|
✕Viosergy Rosa 2018 · AA |
28 | 39→49 | 45 | 40→30 | 43 | .198/.263/.320 | .121 | .279 | 14 | 2 | 33% | 8% | 60 | -1.0 | .221/.278/.363 | .142 | .304 | 16 | 4 | 31% | 7% | 77 | +0.1 | .247/.311/.423 | .176 | .325 | 19 | 0 | 28% | 9% | 103 | +0.4 |
|
✕Ryan Fitzgerald 2022 · AAA |
28 | 43→44 | 47→55 | 44→45 | 42 | .218/.275/.362 | .144 | .280 | 14 | 7 | 27% | 6% | 76 | +0.0 | .204/.267/.361 | .157 | .267 | 17 | 8 | 29% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 | .225/.292/.365 | .140 | .286 | 14 | 7 | 25% | 7% | 80 | +0.2 |
|
✕A.J. Zapp 2006 · AAA |
28 | 45→44 | 41→45 | 46→30 | 39 | .216/.266/.318 | .102 | .302 | 8 | 4 | 30% | 5% | 60 | -1.0 | .211/.276/.333 | .122 | .322 | 12 | 4 | 36% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .188/.269/.315 | .127 | .306 | 14 | 0 | 40% | 8% | 59 | -0.6 |
|
✕Mike Costanzo 2012 · AAA |
28 | 42→48 | 47→50 | 45→40 | 40 | .209/.266/.345 | .136 | .298 | 14 | 6 | 34% | 7% | 68 | -0.5 | .211/.271/.346 | .135 | .297 | 14 | 4 | 32% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 | .200/.264/.329 | .129 | .278 | 14 | 1 | 32% | 8% | 61 | -0.5 |
|
✕Nick Banks 2022 · AAA |
27 | 43→45 | 43→45 | 42→45 | 37 | .213/.260/.321 | .108 | .305 | 11 | 5 | 33% | 5% | 58 | -1.2 | .221/.275/.350 | .129 | .329 | 14 | 6 | 35% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .224/.281/.371 | .147 | .328 | 16 | 5 | 35% | 6% | 76 | +0.0 |
|
✕Brian Jeroloman 2013 · AAA |
28 | 44→38 | 39→40 | 42→40 | 49 | .207/.294/.283 | .077 | .298 | 7 | 6 | 31% | 10% | 64 | -0.8 | .199/.270/.265 | .066 | .276 | 6 | 5 | 28% | 8% | 49 | -1.8 | .181/.264/.241 | .061 | .241 | 5 | 0 | 25% | 10% | 38 | -0.8 |
|
✕Roberto Macias 2009 · AAA |
29 | 47 | 42→45 | 46→40 | 40 | .231/.276/.335 | .104 | .305 | 10 | 7 | 27% | 5% | 68 | -0.5 | .258/.309/.384 | .126 | .322 | 11 | 7 | 22% | 6% | 95 | +1.4 | .297/.347/.429 | .132 | .367 | 10 | 0 | 20% | 6% | 123 | +0.6 |
|
✕Preston Palmeiro 2023 · AAA |
28 | 44→47 | 44→45 | 42→40 | 43 | .218/.268/.337 | .120 | .275 | 12 | 5 | 25% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .209/.272/.322 | .113 | .273 | 10 | 7 | 26% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .145/.233/.236 | .091 | .196 | 6 | 3 | 27% | 10% | 25 | -0.9 |
|
✕Irving Lopez 2023 · AAA |
28 | 43→50 | 40→45 | 50→40 | 44 | .209/.272/.300 | .091 | .268 | 7 | 8 | 24% | 6% | 58 | -1.2 | .223/.296/.342 | .119 | .284 | 12 | 6 | 24% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .221/.304/.350 | .129 | .281 | 13 | 0 | 25% | 9% | 82 | +0.3 |