Tyler Dearden
LF Wichita Wind Surge| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 25 | AABOS | 286 | .270/.363/.411 | 7 | 0 | 84 | — | .243/.310/.344 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA/A+MIN | 140 | .258/.312/.352 | 0 | 0 | 40 | — | .198/.239/.267 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAMIN | 134 | .277/.353/.378 | 2 | 2 | 68 | — | .236/.293/.325 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 29 | MLBMIN | 2 | .229/.293/.353 | 0 | 0 | 82 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 30 | MLBMIN | 27 | .227/.290/.348 | 1 | 0 | 80 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 94 | 74 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 409 | 405 | 814 | 149 | 386 | 30 | 15 | 371 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 232 | 208 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 80 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 269 | 312 | 581 | 111 | 306 | 34 | 7 | 259 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 418 | 352 | 92 | 20 | 0 | 24 | 55 | 114 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 261 | 372 | 523 | 895 | 261 | 312 | 27 | 13 | 389 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 376 | 316 | 83 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 49 | 103 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 263 | 372 | 396 | 768 | 133 | 357 | 27 | 13 | 345 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 286 | 248 | 67 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 70 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 270 | 363 | 411 | 774 | 141 | 349 | 24 | 12 | 347 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 105 | 95 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 282 | 316 | 597 | 95 | 300 | 26 | 7 | 267 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 35 | 33 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 364 | 400 | 455 | 855 | 91 | 480 | 23 | 0 | 385 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 134 | 119 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 277 | 353 | 378 | 732 | 101 | 330 | 18 | 9 | 330 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 94 | 80 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 163 | 280 | 237 | 517 | 75 | 305 | 43 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 232 | 214 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 112 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 145 | 194 | 220 | 413 | 75 | 265 | 48 | 4 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 418 | 369 | 74 | 14 | 0 | 21 | 38 | 153 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 201 | 287 | 409 | 697 | 209 | 257 | 37 | 9 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 376 | 332 | 77 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 126 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 232 | 313 | 331 | 644 | 99 | 338 | 34 | 9 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 286 | 259 | 63 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 86 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 243 | 310 | 344 | 653 | 100 | 342 | 30 | 8 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 105 | 98 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 214 | 245 | 458 | 71 | 249 | 32 | 4 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 35 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 314 | 333 | 648 | 61 | 410 | 29 | 0 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 134 | 123 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 236 | 293 | 325 | 618 | 89 | 293 | 23 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 94 | 80 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 163 | 280 | 237 | 517 | 75 | 308 | 43 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 94 | 74 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 409 | 405 | 814 | 149 | 386 | 30 | 15 | 371 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 232 | 214 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 112 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 145 | 194 | 220 | 413 | 75 | 283 | 48 | 4 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 232 | 208 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 80 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 269 | 312 | 581 | 111 | 306 | 34 | 7 | 259 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 418 | 369 | 74 | 14 | 0 | 21 | 38 | 153 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 201 | 287 | 409 | 697 | 209 | 266 | 37 | 9 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 418 | 352 | 92 | 20 | 0 | 24 | 55 | 114 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 261 | 372 | 523 | 895 | 261 | 312 | 27 | 13 | 389 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 376 | 332 | 77 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 126 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 232 | 313 | 331 | 644 | 99 | 346 | 34 | 9 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 376 | 316 | 83 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 49 | 103 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 263 | 372 | 396 | 768 | 133 | 357 | 27 | 13 | 345 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 286 | 259 | 63 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 86 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 243 | 310 | 344 | 653 | 100 | 343 | 30 | 8 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 286 | 248 | 67 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 70 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 270 | 363 | 411 | 774 | 141 | 349 | 24 | 12 | 347 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 140 | 131 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 239 | 267 | 506 | 69 | 295 | 32 | 3 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 140 | 128 | 33 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 312 | 352 | 663 | 94 | 347 | 25 | 5 | 296 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 134 | 123 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 236 | 293 | 325 | 618 | 89 | 297 | 23 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA RAW | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 134 | 119 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 277 | 353 | 378 | 732 | 101 | 330 | 18 | 9 | 330 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 94 | 81 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 160 | 280 | 235 | 514 | 74 | 305 | 43 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 232 | 217 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 112 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 194 | 217 | 410 | 74 | 265 | 48 | 4 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 418 | 370 | 74 | 14 | 0 | 21 | 38 | 153 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 287 | 408 | 696 | 208 | 257 | 37 | 9 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 376 | 334 | 77 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 126 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 231 | 313 | 329 | 642 | 99 | 338 | 34 | 9 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 286 | 259 | 63 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 86 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 243 | 310 | 344 | 653 | 100 | 342 | 30 | 8 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 140 | 132 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 239 | 265 | 504 | 68 | 289 | 32 | 3 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 134 | 123 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 236 | 293 | 325 | 618 | 89 | 293 | 23 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 140 | 132 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 239 | 265 | 504 | 68 | 289 | 32 | 3 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 134 | 123 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 236 | 293 | 325 | 618 | 89 | 293 | 23 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIN | 2% | 200 | 182 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 52 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 229 | 293 | 353 | 646 | 124 | 294 | 26 | 7 | 290 | 82 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIN | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 293 | 353 | 646 | 124 | 294 | 50 | 0 | 290 | 82 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIN | 23% | 120 | 110 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 226 | 290 | 347 | 637 | 121 | 292 | 26 | 7 | 286 | 80 | -3 | +0 | -2 | -1 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIN | 23% | 27 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 290 | 348 | 638 | 121 | 292 | 26 | 7 | 286 | 80 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 27 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 296 | 400 | 696 | 160 | 294 | 26 | 7 | 286 | 69 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 144 | 24 | 0 | 24 | 48 | 169 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 295 | 399 | 694 | 159 | 293 | 26 | 7 | 286 | 69 | -16 | +0 | -11 | -7 | +14 | -2.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1884 | 1695 | 355 | 64 | 5 | 42 | 137 | 646 | 31 | 7 | 4 | 209 | 281 | 327 | 608 | 118 | 307 | 34 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -5 | +1 | -2 | -2 | +4 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 122 | 22 | 2 | 14 | 47 | 223 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 280 | 325 | 605 | 116 | 306 | 34 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -15 | +2 | -7 | -7 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 134 PAwOBA .325 → .268 (−57)K% 17.9% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.91% | ÷0.941 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.96% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 6.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.37% | ÷1.025 | ×0.920 | ×1.033 | ×0.978 | 24.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.21% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | ×1.033 | ×0.978 | 3.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.033 | ×0.978 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.11% | ÷0.986 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.67% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 88, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .325 → .268; ISO .101 → .080; BABIP .330 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 105 PAwOBA .261 → .206 (−55)K% 25.7% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.71% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.71% | ÷0.963 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.091 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×0.988 | 14.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.24% | ÷0.979 | ×0.840 | ×0.988 | ×0.988 | 11.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.126 | ×0.940 | ×0.988 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.845 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 118, 2B 96, 3B 125, K 93, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .261 → .206; ISO .095 → .077; BABIP .300 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 35 PAwOBA .374 → .289 (−85)K% 22.9% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.86% | ÷0.972 | ×1.270 | — | — | 29.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.71% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 4.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 32.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.00% | ÷1.119 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.968 | 8.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.146 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.191 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 124, 3B 129, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .374 → .289; ISO .091 → .059; BABIP .480 → .410. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 286 PAwOBA .340 → .293 (−47)K% 24.5% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.48% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.40% | ÷0.972 | ×0.970 | ×1.047 | ×0.998 | 27.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.74% | ÷1.144 | ×0.860 | ×1.047 | ×0.998 | 5.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.047 | ×0.998 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.93% | ÷1.048 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.92% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .340 → .293; ISO .141 → .108; BABIP .349 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 376 PAwOBA .341 → .289 (−52)K% 27.4% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.39% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.77% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.60% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.23% | ÷0.983 | ×0.970 | ×0.997 | ×1.012 | 27.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.51% | ÷1.066 | ×0.860 | ×0.997 | ×1.012 | 6.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.47% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.997 | ×1.012 | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.76% | ÷1.004 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.95% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 99, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .341 → .289; ISO .133 → .105; BABIP .357 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Greenville Drive · 418 PAwOBA .381 → .298 (−84)K% 27.3% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷1.004 | ×1.350 | — | — | 36.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.92% | ÷1.004 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 9.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.17% | ÷1.032 | ×0.910 | ×0.987 | ×0.998 | 17.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.40% | ÷1.104 | ×0.830 | ×0.987 | ×0.998 | 6.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.094 | ×0.820 | ×0.987 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.08% | ÷0.891 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 9.37% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 106, 2B 121, 3B 119, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .381 → .298; ISO .261 → .215; BABIP .312 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AGreenville Drive · 232 PAwOBA .253 → .177 (−76)K% 34.5% → 48.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.48% | ÷0.960 | ×1.340 | — | — | 48.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.90% | ÷1.037 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 4.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.29% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 1.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.66% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 20.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.47% | ÷1.015 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 4.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 1.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.091 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 2.38% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 97, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .253 → .177; ISO .111 → .072; BABIP .306 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKGCL Red Sox · 94 PAwOBA .359 → .249 (−110)K% 29.8% → 42.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.79% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 42.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.32% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 3.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 21.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 7.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 3.42% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .359 → .249; ISO .149 → .103; BABIP .386 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).