Sebastian Javier prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Sebastian Javier P FCL Rays

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%22.8%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 2	4	3	4	29	2	8	0	75%	1.1	6.9%	27.6%	-20.7%	0.0%	18.69	6.01	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 2	4	3	4	29	2	8	0	75%	1.1	6.9%	27.6%	-20.7%	0.0%	18.69	7.72	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	14	10	36	178	27	29	2	71%	2.6	10.3%	20.4%	-10.1%	1.5%	5.75	5.62	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	14	10	36	178	27	29	2	71%	2.6	15.2%	16.3%	-1.1%	1.1%	5.75	4.74	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	12	0	17	85	16	24	0	0%	1.4	12.8%	35.3%	-22.5%	0.0%	6.23	6.49	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	12	0	17	85	16	24	0	0%	1.4	12.8%	35.3%	-22.5%	0.0%	6.23	6.49	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	12	0	17	85	16	24	0	0%	1.4	18.8%	28.2%	-9.4%	0.0%	6.23	5.41	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	15.2%	7.7%	3.0%	5.12	5.12	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TB	19	0	20	84	20	11	2	0%	1.1	23.6%	13.2%	10.4%	2.9%	4.88	4.77	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	TB	10	0	10	42	10	6	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	13.2%	10.4%	2.9%	4.88	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.1	23.6%	13.2%	10.4%	2.9%	4.88	4.39	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	102	20	0%	1.1	23.6%	13.2%	10.4%	2.9%	4.88	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		30	13	58	292	31	74	3	43%	1.9	10.7%	25.4%	-14.7%	0.9%	6.87	5.91	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	45	200	1013	108	258	9	43%	1.9	10.7%	25.4%	-14.7%	0.9%	6.87	5.91	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sebastian Javier (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	22.8%	15.2%	3.0%	—	4.77	23.6%	10.4%	20	-0.35	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	89
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	81
Victor Simeon R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	22	SW	5.53	20.3%	15.7%	3.9%	.333	3.87	25.6%	5.4%	81	-1.66	3.22	180	81
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	81
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	78
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	76
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	76
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	75
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	75
Eiberson Castellano R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SW	4.25	18.3%	14.1%	1.7%	.359	4.06	20.9%	10.6%	251	-0.19	3.67	386	75
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	74
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.15	27.7%	17.2%	182	-1.97	1.84	247	74
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	74
Kevin Abel R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	23	SW	5.92	25.2%	22.4%	3.9%	.441	4.63	18.6%	4.5%	308	-1.29	4.50	450	74
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	74
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	73
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	73
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	73
Nestor Lorant R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SW	5.53	18.7%	18.2%	3.1%	.280	3.86	20.5%	11.3%	249	-1.67	2.73	373	72
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	72