Antwone Kelly

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 23 RHP 5'10" / 238 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	APIT	16	14	69	4.43	4.20	21.7%	11.3%	—	K 16.0% · BB 13.4% · FIP 5.26
2025	21	MIX2 levels	25	25	107	3.02	2.59	27.2%	7.7%	—	K 21.4% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.36
2026	22	MIX2 levels	31	17	110	4.34	5.00	17.6%	11.8%	-0.1	K 15.5% · BB 10.8% · FIP 5.14
2027PROJ	23	MLBPIT	17	17	94	4.65	4.98	18.2%	10.1%	-0.1
2028PROJ68% MLB	24	MLBPIT	14	14	79	4.65	4.70	20.0%	9.3%	0.2
2029PROJ80% MLB	25	MLBPIT	18	18	105	4.57	4.54	21.1%	8.9%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs23

K%16

Whiff%10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 78%

CompsDustin McGowan (age 23) · Ryan Atkinson (age 23) · Andrew Quezada (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.65

FIP4.98

K%18.2%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%8.1%

Proj IP94

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL5055

CMD4550

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.7

Whiff%

p1016.2%

p1617.3%

xwOBA vs

p230.344

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Black	12	12	37	159	39	14	2	100%	3.1	16.7%	11.0%	5.7%	1.3%	4.14	3.82	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Black	12	12	37	159	39	14	2	100%	3.1	24.5%	8.8%	15.7%	1.3%	4.14	2.83	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	10	2	23	103	29	10	2	20%	2.3	19.1%	12.1%	7.0%	2.8%	2.31	4.55	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	10	2	23	103	29	10	2	20%	2.3	28.2%	9.7%	18.4%	1.9%	2.31	3.01	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	4	44	182	53	18	0	29%	3.1	18.9%	13.3%	5.6%	0.0%	2.89	3.19	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	4	44	182	53	18	0	29%	3.1	29.1%	9.9%	19.2%	0.0%	2.89	1.91	—
2024	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	16	14	69	300	65	34	8	88%	4.3	16.0%	13.4%	2.7%	3.3%	4.43	5.26	—
2024	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	16	14	69	300	65	34	8	88%	4.3	16.0%	13.4%	2.7%	3.3%	4.43	5.26	—
2024	20	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	16	14	69	300	65	34	8	88%	4.3	21.7%	11.3%	10.3%	2.7%	4.43	4.20	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	107	426	116	33	6	100%	4.3	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	1.8%	3.02	3.36	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	107	426	116	33	6	100%	4.3	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	1.8%	3.02	3.36	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	107	426	116	33	6	100%	4.3	27.2%	7.7%	19.5%	1.4%	3.02	2.59	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	17	110	484	85	57	16	55%	3.5	15.5%	10.8%	4.7%	3.6%	4.34	5.14	-0.3
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	17	110	484	85	57	16	55%	3.5	15.5%	10.8%	4.7%	3.6%	4.34	5.14	-0.3
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	17	110	484	85	57	16	55%	3.5	17.6%	11.8%	5.8%	3.3%	4.34	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	0	19	81	14	8	4	0%	2.3	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	4.9%	4.82	5.67	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	PIT	17	17	94	397	72	40	13	100%	5.5	18.2%	10.1%	8.1%	3.2%	4.65	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	118	496	99	46	16	100%	5.6	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	3.2%	4.65	4.70	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	131	553	117	49	17	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.1%	4.57	4.54	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	138	583	127	51	18	100%	6.0	21.8%	8.8%	13.0%	3.1%	4.51	4.47	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	140	591	129	52	19	100%	6.1	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	3.2%	4.51	4.50	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	140	591	128	53	19	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.0%	12.6%	3.3%	4.56	4.59	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	134	564	119	52	19	100%	6.1	21.1%	9.2%	11.8%	3.4%	4.67	4.75	+0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	126	530	108	51	19	100%	6.0	20.4%	9.5%	10.8%	3.6%	4.84	4.96	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	79	334	67	31	11	100%	5.6	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	3.2%	4.65	4.70	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	105	443	94	40	14	100%	5.8	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.1%	4.57	4.54	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	120	507	110	45	16	100%	6.0	21.8%	8.8%	13.0%	3.1%	4.51	4.47	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	126	532	116	47	17	100%	6.0	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	3.2%	4.51	4.50	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	128	540	117	49	18	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.0%	12.6%	3.3%	4.56	4.59	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	124	524	110	48	18	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.2%	11.8%	3.4%	4.67	4.75	+0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	117	494	101	47	18	100%	5.8	20.4%	9.5%	10.8%	3.6%	4.84	4.96	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	135	818	3455	729	315	115	94%	5.7	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	3.3%	4.62	4.29	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	845	178	77	28	94%	5.7	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	3.3%	4.62	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		108	74	390	1654	295	184	40	69%	3.6	17.8%	11.1%	6.7%	2.4%	3.69	4.32	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	38	200	847	151	94	20	69%	3.6	17.8%	11.1%	6.7%	2.4%	3.69	4.32	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Antwone Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	18.2%	10.1%	3.2%	—	4.56	21.0%	12.0%	386	-0.42	—	—	—
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	78
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	77
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	77
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	75
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	74
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	74
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	74
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	74
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	73
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	73
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	73
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	73
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.5%	7.8%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	72
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	72
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	72
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	72
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	71
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	71
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	71
Hunter Harvey R 2018 · 3.87 FIP	23	SP	3.87	17.6%	7.2%	2.5%	.344	5.57	20.0%	12.0%	86	+1.70	2.00	269	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	130	20.8%	9.2%	1.28	4.62
Max Surkont ('49-'57, 5 WAR*)	6.0	149	20.0%*	8.4%*	1.27*	4.76*
Art Mahaffey ('60-'66, 5 WAR*)	5.0	143	19.9%*	9.1%*	1.45*	4.78*
Joe Coleman ('42-'55, 6 WAR*)	5.7	142	18.0%*	9.1%*	1.25*	4.62*
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Chris Tillman ('18)	5.7	114	17.3%	8.9%	1.29	4.57