Hunter Harvey
P
Chicago Cubs
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 233 lbs
MLB
Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA3.78
FIP3.89
xFIP3.96
SIERA3.33
K%24.8%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%17.3%
IP49
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†6565
CU (4%)
FB-0.6 (50%)
SL-2.2 (14%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 2 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 11 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 6 | 6 | 14 | 54 | 20 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.32 | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 9 | 9 | 32 | 138 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 17.6% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 5.57 | 3.87 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 33 | 11 | 82 | 353 | 94 | 30 | 17 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 4.72 | 5.70 | -0.5 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 10 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.15 | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 17 | 1 | 19 | 87 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 12.1% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 6.27 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 44 | 2 | 45 | 179 | 53 | 14 | 1 | 28.7% | 7.6% | 0.6% | 2.20 | 1.98 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 57 | 0 | 61 | 235 | 67 | 12 | 7 | 28.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.82 | 3.01 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 49 | 0 | 51 | 219 | 55 | 14 | 5 | 25.1% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 4.44 | 3.09 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 15 | 1 | 14 | 51 | 16 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | CHC | 21 | — | 21 | 87 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 27.4% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 3.79 | 3.74 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 25 | 105 | 28 | 8 | 5 | 26.5% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 4.27 | 3.13 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 54 | 15 | 6 | 26.8% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 3.83 | 3.86 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 50 | 15 | 6 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 3.92 | 3.99 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 46 | 15 | 6 | 25.4% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.04 | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 42 | 14 | 6 | 24.7% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.18 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 38 | 14 | 6 | 23.9% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 4.34 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 37 | MLB | CHC | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 4.50 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 246 | 32 | 334 | 1389 | 339 | 89 | 46 | 24.4% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 3.77 | 3.65 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 147 | 19 | 200 | 831 | 203 | 53 | 28 | 24.4% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 3.77 | 3.65 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Harvey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.74 | 27.4% | 7.5% | 3.0% | — | 3.99 | 26.1% | 18.3% | 136 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.5% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 281 | 71 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.21 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.66 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.45 | 2.80 | 284 | 70 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 2.64 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.64 | 32.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .211 | 3.30 | 25.5% | 16.3% | 162 | +0.66 | 2.58 | 277 | 69 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 69 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 68 |
| C.C. Lee R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.02 | 34.7% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.58 | 121 | 68 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.04 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 1.8% | .341 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 13.9% | 113 | +1.17 | 2.26 | 602 | 68 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.19 | 26.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | .216 | 5.00 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 66 | +0.81 | 1.85 | 238 | 68 |
| Ryan Madson R 2029 · 2.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.94 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .244 | 2.97 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.03 | 1.43 | 240 | 67 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2028 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.16 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.50 | 2.02 | 102 | 67 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.16 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .301 | 7.43 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.27 | 2.91 | 334 | 67 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 66 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 66 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.09 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .278 | 3.53 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.56 | 2.31 | 403 | 66 |
| Chris Martin R 2027 · 2.97 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.97 | 20.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | .311 | 2.86 | 25.7% | 23.1% | 117 | -0.11 | 1.72 | 402 | 66 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.30 | 27.9% | 7.4% | 4.8% | .248 | 4.70 | 24.8% | 18.8% | 66 | +0.40 | 2.67 | 279 | 65 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 65 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 65 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 65 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 65 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2019
Service 7.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +0.3 | $1M | -$4M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +0.6 | $2M | -$6M |
| Totals | $13M | $4M | -$9M | ||