Po-Yu Chen — OGILVIE

Po-Yu Chen P Altoona Curve

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 201 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.0 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 118

ERA5.34

FIP5.34

K%14.0%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%2.7%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	42	175	44	12	2	100%	4.2	17.6%	8.1%	9.5%	1.1%	2.57	3.26	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	42	175	44	12	2	100%	4.2	25.1%	6.9%	18.3%	1.1%	2.57	2.48	—
2022	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	22	22	98	420	103	36	8	100%	4.5	18.1%	10.1%	8.0%	2.2%	4.58	4.07	—
2022	20	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	22	22	98	420	103	36	8	100%	4.5	24.5%	8.6%	16.0%	1.9%	4.58	3.16	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	24	120	506	124	43	21	96%	4.8	18.9%	9.8%	9.1%	4.3%	4.44	5.11	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	24	120	506	124	43	21	96%	4.8	18.9%	9.8%	9.1%	4.3%	4.44	5.11	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	25	24	120	506	124	43	21	96%	4.8	24.5%	8.5%	16.0%	4.2%	4.44	4.39	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	25	134	573	96	43	12	93%	5.0	13.6%	8.3%	5.3%	3.0%	4.03	4.63	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	25	134	573	96	43	12	93%	5.0	13.6%	8.3%	5.3%	3.0%	4.03	4.63	—
2024	22	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	27	25	134	573	96	43	12	93%	5.0	16.8%	7.5%	9.2%	2.1%	4.03	3.79	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	113	511	97	54	11	90%	3.9	15.4%	11.4%	4.0%	2.9%	5.11	4.83	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	113	511	97	54	11	90%	3.9	15.4%	11.4%	4.0%	2.9%	5.11	4.83	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	26	113	511	97	54	11	90%	3.9	19.0%	10.6%	8.4%	2.2%	5.11	4.09	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	13	9	34	162	31	21	6	69%	2.6	13.6%	13.4%	0.2%	4.6%	9.79	6.17	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	13	9	34	162	31	21	6	69%	2.6	13.6%	13.4%	0.2%	4.6%	9.79	6.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	PIT	2	2	3	18	5	2	0	100%	1.5	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	0.0%	15.00	2.16	—
2026	24	A RAW	PIT	1	0	2	13	4	3	1	0%	2.0	30.8%	23.1%	7.7%	7.7%	22.50	7.65	—
2026	24	AA RAW	PIT	10	7	29	131	22	16	5	70%	2.9	16.8%	12.2%	4.6%	3.8%	8.38	5.32	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	PIT	1	1	7	30	4	3	1	100%	7.1	14.0%	11.3%	2.7%	3.0%	5.34	5.34	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	41	192	35	24	7	—	—	18.3%	12.7%	5.6%	3.6%	9.03	6.02	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	122	516	81	55	15	100%	5.8	15.8%	10.6%	5.1%	2.9%	5.16	5.11	-0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	122	516	86	53	15	100%	6.1	16.7%	10.3%	6.4%	2.9%	5.03	4.99	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	120	508	86	52	15	100%	6.0	17.0%	10.3%	6.7%	3.0%	5.00	4.99	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	117	493	84	51	15	100%	6.1	17.0%	10.4%	6.6%	3.1%	5.03	5.06	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	111	470	79	50	15	100%	5.9	16.8%	10.6%	6.1%	3.2%	5.13	5.19	-0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	105	442	72	48	15	100%	6.2	16.4%	10.9%	5.5%	3.4%	5.27	5.37	-0.6
2027	25	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	54	228	36	24	6	100%	6.0	15.8%	10.6%	5.1%	2.7%	5.04	4.99	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	82	346	58	36	9	100%	5.9	16.7%	10.3%	6.4%	2.7%	4.91	4.87	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	93	393	67	40	11	100%	5.8	17.0%	10.3%	6.7%	2.8%	4.88	4.87	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	98	414	70	43	12	100%	6.1	17.0%	10.4%	6.6%	2.9%	4.90	4.93	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	98	414	69	44	12	100%	6.1	16.8%	10.6%	6.1%	3.0%	5.00	5.06	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	94	397	65	43	13	100%	5.9	16.4%	10.9%	5.5%	3.2%	5.13	5.23	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	87	519	2191	365	231	63	100%	6.0	16.7%	10.5%	6.1%	2.9%	4.97	4.62	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	141	89	24	100%	6.0	16.7%	10.5%	6.1%	2.9%	4.97	4.62	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		126	116	541	2347	381	233	73	92%	4.3	16.2%	9.9%	6.3%	3.1%	4.69	4.68	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	43	200	868	141	86	27	92%	4.3	16.2%	9.9%	6.3%	3.1%	4.69	4.68	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Po-Yu Chen (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.34	14.0%	11.3%	3.0%	—	5.03	16.5%	6.1%	364	-0.31	—	—	—
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	88
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	87
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	87
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	86
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	85
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	84
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.36	21.3%	11.3%	274	-0.91	3.90	538	84
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	83
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	83
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	83
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	83
Elliot Morris R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	12.8%	10.4%	1.8%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	102	82
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	82
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	82
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	82
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	82
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	82
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	82
Patrick McGuff R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	12.0%	10.4%	1.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	133	81
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.41	25.9%	11.8%	106	-0.76	3.84	202	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	112	16.3%	10.6%	1.19	5.13
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58