Juan Machado — OGILVIE

Juan MachadoOF FCL Pirates

Age 23 L/R 5'11" / 145 lbs ROK HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .284 / .280

PA4

HR0

K%31

BB%10

ISO86

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	DSL PIT Gold	—	67	51	12	2	1	0	13	19	2	3	0	235	409	314	723	78	364	28	19	341	117	+1	+1	—	—	+1	0.3
2022	19	ROK	DSL PIT Gold	—	102	74	23	0	1	0	20	20	5	16	4	311	485	338	823	27	411	20	20	384	146	+6	+2	—	—	+2	1.0
2023	20	ROK	DSL Pirates Gold	—	178	127	37	3	5	2	47	39	2	29	7	291	489	441	930	150	398	22	26	420	170	+15	+3	—	—	+4	2.2
2024	21	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	83	57	7	0	0	0	23	23	2	10	0	123	390	123	513		206	28	28	287	81	-2	+2	—	—	+2	0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	—	67	56	9	1	1	0	8	27	2	3	0	161	288	214	502	54	300	40	12	243	51	-4	+1	—	—	+1	-0.2
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	—	102	81	20	0	1	0	13	30	5	16	4	247	384	272	655	25	334	29	13	290	82	-2	+2	—	—	+2	0.2
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	—	178	145	29	2	3	2	29	58	2	29	7	200	341	297	637	97	303	33	16	291	83	-4	+3	—	—	+4	0.3
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	83	65	6	0	0	0	15	32	2	10	0	92	280	92	373		168	39	18	197	19	-8	+2	—	—	+2	-0.4
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	—	67	56	9	1	1	0	8	27	2	3	0	161	288	214	502	54	300	40	12	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Gold	—	67	51	12	2	1	0	13	19	2	3	0	235	409	314	723	78	364	28	19	341	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	—	102	81	20	0	1	0	13	30	5	16	4	247	384	272	655	25	377	29	13	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Gold	—	102	74	23	0	1	0	20	20	5	16	4	311	485	338	823	27	411	20	20	384	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	—	178	145	29	2	3	2	29	58	2	29	7	200	341	297	637	97	310	33	16	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	—	178	127	37	3	5	2	47	39	2	29	7	291	489	441	930	150	398	22	26	420	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	83	65	6	0	0	0	15	32	2	10	0	92	280	92	373		182	39	18	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	—	83	57	7	0	0	0	23	23	2	10	0	123	390	123	513		206	28	28	287	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	—	67	57	9	1	1	0	8	27	2	3	0	158	288	211	498	53	300	40	12	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	—	102	83	20	0	1	0	13	30	5	16	4	241	384	265	649	24	334	29	13	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	—	178	145	29	2	3	2	29	58	2	29	7	200	341	297	637	97	303	33	16	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	83	66	6	0	0	0	15	32	2	10	0	91	280	91	371		168	39	18	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	—	178	145	29	2	3	2	29	58	2	29	7	200	341	297	637	97	303	33	16	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	83	66	6	0	0	0	15	32	2	10	0	91	280	91	371		168	39	18	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	23	MLB MLE	PIT	0%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		288	25	0	263	64	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PIT	30%	105	93	20	3	1	2	10	32	1	3	0	215	298	333	631	118	290	30	10	273	71	-4	+1	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	PIT	30%	32	29	5	1	0	0	3	10	0	1	0	172	250	207	457	34	288	31	9	263	71	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	32	29	5	1	0	0	3	10	0	1	0	172	250	207	457	34	263	31	9	263	67	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	101	20	0	0	61	203	0	20	0	171	249	205	455	34	262	31	9	263	67	-22	+4	+0	-4	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	539	444	85	6	6	4	75	180	12	61	11	191	324	259	583	68	305	33	14	267	67	-4	+1	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	535	102	7	7	5	90	217	14	74	13	191	321	258	579	67	303	33	14	267	67	-23	+4	+0	-4	+14	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Machado (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	195/284/280	85	288	1	2	31%	10%	64	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕River Town 2022 · A	23	43→38	37→40	54→50	43	203/281/276	74	285	3	12	28%	7%	61	-1.5	210/295/314	104	266	10	15	23%	8%	76	-0.4	205/297/303	98	254	9	15	22%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Donta' Williams 2023 · A	24	44→33	39→40	56→55	48	204/291/294	90	301	5	21	31%	10%	70	-0.9	186/272/268	82	284	5	20	33%	9%	57	-1.8	164/254/234	71	252	5	20	34%	9%	40	-1.3
✕Cam Gibson 2017 · A	23	37→41	41→45	53→55	40	183/242/278	94	269	8	17	34%	7%	47	-2.6	198/260/312	114	273	10	17	29%	7%	61	-1.5	194/259/307	113	262	9	19	28%	7%	58	-1.3
✕Jonny Butler 2022 · A	23	43→33	39→50	51→55	42	207/267/295	88	301	7	9	32%	8%	60	-1.6	197/263/307	110	285	9	16	32%	7%	61	-1.5	172/251/288	116	240	10	18	31%	8%	50	-1.2
✕Kameron Misner 2021 · A	23	46→43	39→50	54→55	47	217/293/305	88	307	6	13	29%	9%	72	-0.7	200/284/329	129	320	13	21	38%	10%	75	-0.5	189/285/327	138	300	14	26	38%	11%	72	-0.6
✕Chris Grayson 2013 · A	23	40→38	43→45	56→50	42	200/263/314	115	273	9	20	29%	7%	63	-1.4	197/262/295	98	268	7	15	28%	7%	58	-1.7	187/254/275	87	252	6	15	27%	7%	49	-1.6
✕Cole Roederer 2022 · A	22	42→32	40→45	50	44	198/272/292	93	297	7	13	34%	8%	61	-1.5	201/266/314	113	295	12	11	34%	7%	64	-1.3	180/254/288	108	265	12	11	34%	8%	53	-1.2
✕Ramiro Rodriguez 2021 · AA	23	43	40	51→50	49	206/287/303	97	281	7	18	28%	9%	70	-0.9	201/263/300	99	311	9	11	36%	7%	60	-1.6	148/212/219	71	239	8	8	39%	6%	19	-1.1
✕Travis Swaggerty 2021 · A	23	44	40→45	50→55	44	209/274/301	93	299	8	14	31%	8%	64	-1.3	211/276/321	110	298	9	18	30%	8%	69	-0.9	205/272/308	104	303	7	20	32%	8%	61	-0.7
✕Michael Siani 2022 · A	23	38→45	39→40	55→60	42	185/255/269	84	272	7	25	33%	8%	50	-2.3	206/277/304	98	273	9	30	26%	8%	65	-1.2	207/279/299	92	270	8	33	25%	8%	63	-1.1
✕Izzy Wilson 2021 · A	23	40→33	41→45	52→55	38	184/254/281	97	322	9	15	42%	8%	52	-2.2	203/266/343	140	298	17	21	36%	8%	71	-0.8	189/253/333	145	264	20	25	35%	8%	61	-0.9
✕Estee Harris 2008 · A	23	37→31	40→50	49→50	36	182/234/272	91	293	8	13	39%	6%	42	-2.9	218/265/340	122	373	12	12	42%	5%	70	-0.9	212/254/349	137	373	14	14	45%	4%	63	-0.4
✕Jackson Cluff 2021 · A	24	40→30	42→45	51→60	40	198/263/305	106	283	9	12	32%	6%	61	-1.5	183/253/275	92	279	7	13	35%	7%	51	-2.2	179/271/301	122	264	12	28	34%	10%	62	-0.8
✕Je'Von Ward 2023 · A	23	45→35	40→45	47→50	37	210/259/302	91	324	7	11	36%	6%	58	-1.7	196/263/307	111	315	11	10	38%	8%	61	-1.5	191/275/315	124	286	14	8	36%	10%	68	-0.5
✕Tyler Callihan 2023 · A	23	43→41	43→45	53→55	41	211/260/321	109	279	10	14	28%	6%	63	-1.4	215/272/326	111	306	10	21	31%	7%	69	-0.9	206/274/320	114	295	13	23	33%	8%	66	-0.6
✕Sean Shoffit 2008 · A	23	43	41→45	56→50	44	202/274/310	108	311	6	13	35%	9%	65	-1.2	195/266/303	108	315	8	14	37%	8%	61	-1.5	182/254/286	105	295	7	16	38%	8%	50	-1.1
✕Brian Pointer 2014 · A	22	38→41	42→45	51→50	40	186/261/292	106	285	9	13	36%	7%	58	-1.7	207/280/332	125	310	12	12	35%	8%	74	-0.5	204/280/338	134	302	14	12	35%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Brian O'Grady 2016 · A	24	39→38	43→55	54→50	48	196/273/312	116	263	10	14	28%	9%	67	-1.1	193/273/316	123	270	11	13	31%	9%	68	-1.0	208/271/384	177	275	20	15	31%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Devin Foyle 2021 · A	24	42→39	40→45	48→45	45	200/277/295	94	297	8	12	33%	9%	64	-1.3	211/279/330	119	274	12	8	26%	8%	73	-0.6	202/274/322	119	256	12	6	25%	8%	67	-0.6
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2022 · AA	23	34	41→40	54→60	55	164/295/260	96	258	8	24	35%	14%	66	-1.1	190/306/293	103	293	8	20	33%	12%	76	-0.4	190/308/293	103	292	8	21	33%	12%	74	-0.3