Josh Stephan

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#706ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	AATEX	12	11	58	4.94	4.09	21.9%	6.8%	—	K 17.7% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.73
2025	23	MIX2 levels	25	22	112	4.67	4.17	18.7%	6.4%	—	K 15.2% · BB 6.8% · FIP 4.92
2026	24	AAATOR	28	26	140	5.77	4.75	21.2%	7.0%	—	K 18.2% · BB 6.3% · FIP 5.09
2027PROJ	25	MLBTOR	3	3	16	5.00	5.00	17.2%	5.7%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	26	MLBTOR	10	10	60	4.88	4.85	18.5%	5.9%	0.4
2029PROJ53% MLB	27	MLBTOR	11	11	68	4.84	4.85	18.7%	6.1%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.4M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 3.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 86%

CompsChandler Champlain (age 25) · Aaron Brooks (age 25) · Lindsey Caughel (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%17.2%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%11.4%

Proj IP160

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 160 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	40	172	50	16	7	90%	4.0	20.4%	11.5%	9.0%	5.4%	5.17	5.81	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	9	40	172	50	16	7	90%	4.0	29.1%	9.3%	19.8%	4.1%	5.17	4.08	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	103	422	115	31	11	90%	4.9	20.1%	7.6%	12.6%	3.8%	3.14	4.44	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	103	422	115	31	11	90%	4.9	27.3%	7.3%	19.9%	2.6%	3.14	3.16	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	67	253	78	13	8	92%	5.1	24.0%	5.9%	18.1%	4.5%	2.29	4.29	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	12	67	253	78	13	8	92%	5.1	30.8%	5.1%	25.7%	3.2%	2.29	2.91	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	12	11	58	251	55	17	9	92%	4.9	17.7%	7.5%	10.3%	4.0%	4.94	4.73	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	12	11	58	251	55	17	9	92%	4.9	17.7%	7.5%	10.3%	4.0%	4.94	4.73	—
2024	22	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	12	11	58	251	55	17	9	92%	4.9	21.9%	6.8%	15.1%	3.6%	4.94	4.09	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	112	487	91	31	16	88%	4.5	15.2%	6.8%	8.4%	4.1%	4.67	4.92	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	112	487	91	31	16	88%	4.5	15.2%	6.8%	8.4%	4.1%	4.67	4.92	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	22	112	487	91	31	16	88%	4.5	18.7%	6.4%	12.3%	3.3%	4.67	4.17	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	28	26	140	618	131	43	28	93%	5.0	18.2%	6.3%	12.0%	5.0%	5.77	5.09	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	28	26	140	618	131	43	28	93%	5.0	18.2%	6.3%	12.0%	5.0%	5.77	5.09	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	28	26	140	618	131	43	28	93%	5.0	21.2%	7.0%	14.2%	4.5%	5.77	4.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TOR	3	3	16	68	12	4	3	100%	5.3	17.2%	5.7%	11.4%	4.1%	5.00	5.00	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TOR	27	27	160	677	125	40	27	100%	5.9	18.5%	5.9%	12.6%	4.0%	4.88	4.85	+1.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	129	543	102	33	22	100%	6.1	18.7%	6.1%	12.6%	4.0%	4.84	4.85	+0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	123	521	98	33	21	100%	5.9	18.8%	6.3%	12.4%	4.0%	4.86	4.90	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	114	482	90	32	20	100%	6.0	18.6%	6.6%	12.0%	4.1%	4.95	5.02	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	104	437	80	30	19	100%	6.1	18.2%	6.9%	11.3%	4.3%	5.10	5.19	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	60	253	47	15	10	100%	6.0	18.5%	5.9%	12.6%	4.0%	4.88	4.85	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	68	287	54	18	11	100%	6.2	18.7%	6.1%	12.6%	4.0%	4.84	4.85	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	79	334	63	21	13	100%	6.1	18.8%	6.3%	12.4%	4.0%	4.86	4.90	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	81	342	64	23	14	100%	5.8	18.6%	6.6%	12.0%	4.1%	4.95	5.02	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	79	334	61	23	14	100%	6.1	18.2%	6.9%	11.3%	4.3%	5.10	5.19	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	61	368	1552	288	99	64	100%	6.0	18.6%	6.4%	12.1%	4.1%	4.93	4.59	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	157	54	35	100%	6.0	18.6%	6.4%	12.1%	4.1%	4.93	4.59	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		109	99	520	2203	412	157	97	91%	4.8	18.7%	7.1%	11.6%	4.4%	4.43	4.85	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	38	200	847	158	60	37	91%	4.8	18.7%	7.1%	11.6%	4.4%	4.43	4.85	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 140 IPFIP 4.68 → 5.09 (+0.41)K% 21.2% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.20%	—	×0.860	18.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.96%	—	×0.900	6.26%
HR / BF /BF	4.53%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.98%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.68 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 104 IPFIP 4.12 → 4.92 (+0.80)K% 18.8% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.81%	—	×0.810	15.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.19%	—	×1.100	6.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.32%	÷0.976	×1.200	4.08%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 4.12 → 4.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 8 IPFIP 4.31 → 4.72 (+0.41)K% 17.1% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.14%	—	×0.860	14.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×0.900	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷0.913	×1.100	3.44%

Result: FIP 4.31 → 4.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 58 IPFIP 4.08 → 4.73 (+0.66)K% 21.9% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.91%	—	×0.810	17.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.77%	—	×1.100	7.45%
HR / BF /BF	3.59%	÷1.080	×1.200	3.98%

Result: FIP 4.08 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 62 IPFIP 2.99 → 4.29 (+1.30)K% 31.2% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.20%	—	×0.770	24.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.13%	—	×1.150	5.90%
HR / BF /BF	3.42%	÷0.948	×1.250	4.51%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.99 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADown East Wood Ducks · 92 IPFIP 3.08 → 4.44 (+1.37)K% 27.2% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.20%	—	×0.740	20.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.40%	—	×1.180	7.55%
HR / BF /BF	2.67%	÷0.912	×1.300	3.80%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.08 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Hickory Crawdads · 12 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.77 (+0.95)K% 27.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.66%	—	×0.770	21.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.89%	—	×1.150	17.13%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.123	×1.250	2.37%

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Rangers · 28 IPFIP 3.58 → 5.18 (+1.60)K% 27.0% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.96%	—	×0.680	18.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.43%	—	×1.250	13.04%
HR / BF /BF	2.61%	÷1.015	×1.400	3.60%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 5.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Stephan (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	4.1%	—	4.86	18.6%	12.5%	412	-0.14	—	—	—
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	84
Aaron Brooks R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	25	SP	3.93	17.4%	4.7%	3.1%	.332	4.84	15.1%	9.4%	261	+0.91	3.71	879	81
Lindsey Caughel R 2017 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	14.6%	6.5%	3.3%	.276	5.12	13.3%	5.0%	29	+0.63	4.49	187	81
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	81
Jordan Romano R 2018 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.7%	7.9%	3.3%	.274	3.78	31.7%	22.0%	131	-0.65	2.40	692	81
A.J. Ladwig R 2018 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	14.6%	4.7%	3.9%	.322	5.76	15.7%	11.0%	101	+1.18	3.95	759	80
David Hess R 2018 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP	4.69	17.5%	8.5%	3.6%	.267	5.99	20.8%	13.3%	187	+1.30	3.97	751	79
Clay Chandler R 2019 · 4.49 FIP	25	SP	4.49	16.2%	5.2%	3.8%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	328	79
Trystan Vrieling R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	17.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.84	17.9%	5.3%	198	+0.82	4.02	345	79
Mike Vasil R 2024 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP	5.03	15.4%	7.7%	4.1%	.310	3.89	19.4%	8.3%	101	-1.14	3.63	429	79
Josh DeGraaf R 2018 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	17.2%	7.1%	3.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	320	79
D.J. Brown R 2016 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP-	4.43	16.7%	8.1%	3.1%	.317	4.49	16.3%	9.3%	74	+0.06	4.02	348	78
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	78
Noah Zavolas R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	25	SP	4.86	19.6%	6.8%	4.7%	.288	5.99	16.4%	6.8%	62	+1.13	3.44	315	78
Tanner Gordon R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	25	SP	4.35	17.9%	6.8%	3.5%	.315	4.48	17.5%	13.0%	347	+0.13	4.10	715	78
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	78
Armando Galarraga R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP	4.74	16.9%	7.9%	3.8%	.233	5.34	13.5%	4.2%	331	+0.60	3.92	584	78
Kyle Luckham R 2024 · 4.81 FIP	24	SP	4.81	13.6%	5.9%	3.8%	.297	3.92	14.0%	6.3%	232	-0.89	3.78	501	78
Jack Cushing R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	25	SP	4.84	16.1%	7.2%	4.0%	.327	4.64	19.5%	13.0%	280	-0.20	3.68	523	78
Richard Fitts R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	24	SP	4.45	18.1%	7.0%	3.6%	.284	4.53	19.0%	10.6%	87	+0.08	2.91	489	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	132	18.3%	6.2%	1.58	4.93
Jerad Eickhoff ('22)	2.3	116	20.7%	6.9%	1.57	4.50
Paul Mitchell ('75-'80, 1 WAR*)	3.1	104	16.7%*	7.1%*	1.59*	4.98*
Dave Bush ('13)	5.7	143	15.7%	6.0%	1.34	4.73
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*
Zach Plesac ('24)	2.4	96	18.1%	6.5%	1.43	4.31
Mike Smithson ('82-'89, 10 WAR*)	6.8	170	17.6%*	6.5%*	1.33*	4.62*