Josh Stephan — OGILVIE

Josh Stephan P Buffalo Bisons

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.5 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION136 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%15.8%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 147 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CMD5560

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	40	172	50	16	7	90%	4.0	20.4%	11.5%	9.0%	5.4%	5.17	5.81	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	9	40	172	50	16	7	90%	4.0	29.1%	9.3%	19.8%	4.1%	5.17	4.08	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	19	103	422	115	31	11	90%	4.9	20.1%	7.6%	12.6%	3.8%	3.14	4.44	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	19	103	422	115	31	11	90%	4.9	27.3%	7.3%	19.9%	2.6%	3.14	3.16	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	67	253	78	13	8	92%	5.1	24.0%	5.9%	18.1%	4.5%	2.29	4.29	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	67	253	78	13	8	92%	5.1	24.0%	5.9%	18.1%	4.5%	2.29	4.29	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	12	67	253	78	13	8	92%	5.1	30.8%	5.1%	25.7%	3.2%	2.29	2.91	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	12	11	58	251	55	17	9	92%	4.9	17.7%	7.5%	10.3%	4.0%	4.94	4.73	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	12	11	58	251	55	17	9	92%	4.9	17.7%	7.5%	10.3%	4.0%	4.94	4.73	—
2024	22	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	12	11	58	251	55	17	9	92%	4.9	21.9%	6.8%	15.1%	3.6%	4.94	4.09	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	112	487	91	31	16	88%	4.5	15.2%	6.8%	8.4%	4.1%	4.67	4.92	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	112	487	91	31	16	88%	4.5	15.2%	6.8%	8.4%	4.1%	4.67	4.92	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	22	112	487	91	31	16	88%	4.5	18.7%	6.4%	12.3%	3.3%	4.67	4.17	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	27	25	136	594	127	42	26	93%	5.0	17.7%	6.4%	11.4%	4.8%	5.57	5.05	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	27	25	136	594	127	42	26	93%	5.0	17.7%	6.4%	11.4%	4.8%	5.57	5.05	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	TOR	27	25	136	594	127	42	26	93%	5.0	21.4%	7.1%	14.3%	4.4%	5.57	4.59	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TOR	2	2	11	47	7	3	2	100%	5.5	15.8%	6.2%	9.7%	3.5%	4.83	4.83	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	TOR	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	15.8%	6.2%	9.7%	3.5%	4.83	4.83	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	147	641	134	45	28	—	—	21.0%	7.0%	14.0%	4.3%	5.52	5.03	-0.2
FULL	24	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	1	5	1	0	0	—	—	15.8%	6.2%	9.7%	3.5%	4.83	4.45	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TOR	25	25	147	619	109	38	21	100%	5.9	17.6%	6.2%	11.4%	3.4%	4.70	4.65	+0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	TOR	26	26	154	649	121	41	22	100%	5.9	18.7%	6.3%	12.4%	3.4%	4.60	4.55	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	TOR	26	26	155	656	124	42	22	100%	6.0	18.9%	6.4%	12.4%	3.4%	4.58	4.57	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	TOR	26	26	155	656	123	43	23	100%	6.0	18.8%	6.6%	12.2%	3.5%	4.62	4.65	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	TOR	25	25	148	626	116	43	23	100%	5.9	18.6%	6.8%	11.7%	3.6%	4.72	4.78	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	139	589	107	42	23	100%	6.1	18.2%	7.1%	11.1%	3.8%	4.86	4.96	-0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	130	549	98	41	22	100%	5.9	17.8%	7.5%	10.3%	4.1%	5.04	5.16	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	71	300	53	19	10	100%	5.9	17.6%	6.2%	11.4%	3.4%	4.70	4.65	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	106	448	84	28	15	100%	5.9	18.7%	6.3%	12.4%	3.4%	4.60	4.55	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	123	519	98	33	18	100%	6.2	18.9%	6.4%	12.4%	3.4%	4.58	4.57	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	132	557	105	37	20	100%	6.0	18.8%	6.6%	12.2%	3.5%	4.62	4.65	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	TOR	22	22	131	553	103	38	20	100%	6.0	18.6%	6.8%	11.7%	3.6%	4.72	4.78	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	TOR	21	21	126	532	97	38	20	100%	6.0	18.2%	7.1%	11.1%	3.8%	4.86	4.96	-0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	119	502	90	38	20	100%	6.0	17.8%	7.5%	10.3%	4.1%	5.04	5.16	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		135	135	810	3419	630	231	124	100%	6.0	18.4%	6.7%	11.7%	3.6%	4.73	4.39	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	156	57	31	100%	6.0	18.4%	6.7%	11.7%	3.6%	4.73	4.39	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		108	98	516	2179	405	156	95	91%	4.8	18.6%	7.2%	11.4%	4.4%	4.36	4.84	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	38	200	845	157	61	37	91%	4.8	18.6%	7.2%	11.4%	4.4%	4.36	4.84	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Stephan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	15.8%	6.2%	3.5%	—	4.59	18.4%	12.1%	456	-0.24	—	—	—
Kyle Luckham R 2023 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	14.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.286	4.27	13.7%	6.7%	376	-0.13	3.78	501	92
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	89
Jose Reyes R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	24	SP	4.25	14.6%	6.5%	2.8%	.289	5.11	11.0%	2.8%	100	+0.86	4.25	225	89
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.52	19.5%	13.8%	405	-0.79	2.69	522	89
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.28	19.1%	10.1%	247	+0.40	3.88	490	89
Brady Feigl R 2019 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP	3.93	15.9%	7.0%	2.3%	.333	5.26	19.4%	9.8%	122	+1.33	3.93	257	88
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	88
Derek Diamond R 2023 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	14.4%	6.9%	3.6%	.307	4.58	15.9%	10.1%	151	-0.15	3.53	270	88
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	87
Tyler Cleveland R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP-	3.99	14.5%	5.4%	2.6%	.284	4.41	18.9%	5.6%	149	+0.42	2.66	285	86
Jack Cushing R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.66	18.1%	11.3%	332	+0.97	3.69	523	86
Shane Greene R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SP	4.50	13.0%	6.6%	3.0%	.309	3.60	24.1%	15.6%	191	-0.90	2.86	484	86
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	85
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	651	85
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	85
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	85
Drew Anderson R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	17.1%	6.1%	3.2%	.265	4.66	20.1%	9.6%	141	+0.44	2.95	547	85
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	84
Justin Vernia R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	23	SP-	5.27	17.0%	8.4%	4.6%	.296	4.46	14.7%	10.2%	79	-0.81	4.37	193	84
Blake Battenfield R 2019 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	13.7%	6.9%	3.5%	.302	4.52	13.7%	8.7%	106	-0.21	3.35	389	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	145	18.1%	6.6%	1.39	4.73
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14