Josh Stephan
P
Round Rock Express
+0.4
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.9 · 2028
ERA4.78
FIP4.78
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.7%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%11.0%
IP86
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 10 | 9 | 40 | 172 | 50 | 16 | 7 | 20.4% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 5.17 | 5.77 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 21 | 19 | 103 | 422 | 115 | 31 | 11 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 3.14 | 4.40 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 13 | 12 | 67 | 253 | 78 | 13 | 8 | 24.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.29 | 4.26 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 12 | 11 | 58 | 251 | 55 | 17 | 9 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 4.94 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 25 | 22 | 112 | 487 | 91 | 31 | 16 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 4.67 | 4.94 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 4 | 4 | 16 | 71 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 21.1% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.89 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 68 | 28 | 13 | 18.7% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.78 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 102 | 435 | 85 | 31 | 17 | 19.6% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 5.11 | 4.86 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 99 | 419 | 83 | 32 | 14 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.64 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 91 | 34 | 15 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.58 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 109 | 462 | 94 | 35 | 16 | 20.4% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.57 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 95 | 35 | 16 | 20.4% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.59 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 107 | 453 | 92 | 35 | 16 | 20.3% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.63 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 19 | 104 | 440 | 88 | 34 | 15 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 4.66 | 4.69 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 84 | 34 | 15 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 4.73 | 4.77 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 96 | 407 | 80 | 33 | 15 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.85 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 75 | 32 | 15 | 19.3% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 4.89 | 4.95 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 70 | 31 | 14 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 4.99 | 5.06 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 65 | 30 | 14 | 18.5% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 5.11 | 5.18 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 66 | 26 | 13 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 4.1% | 5.07 | 5.05 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 85 | 77 | 396 | 1656 | 315 | 122 | 71 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 4.05 | 4.76 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 39 | 200 | 837 | 159 | 62 | 36 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 4.05 | 4.76 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Stephan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.78 | 18.7% | 7.7% | 3.5% | — | 4.60 | 20.2% | 12.6% | 315 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.51 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.12 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.39 | 3.50 | 472 | 95 |
| Angel Araiza R 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.8% | .287 | 3.79 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.78 | 3.40 | 289 | 93 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 91 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 91 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 90 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 90 |
| Mason Erla R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 14.9% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .309 | 4.97 | 14.9% | 4.6% | 124 | +0.89 | 3.11 | 206 | 89 |
| Rafael Pineda R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.24 | 14.6% | 5.2% | 3.1% | .298 | 5.28 | 6.5% | -3.4% | 20 | +1.04 | 4.24 | 101 | 89 |
| Edison Frias R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.90 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .318 | 4.18 | 13.7% | 3.5% | 166 | -0.72 | 4.14 | 279 | 89 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 89 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 88 |
| Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.17 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.93 | 354 | 88 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 88 |
| Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .266 | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.19 | 3.79 | 279 | 88 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.68 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.69 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 332 | +1.01 | 3.68 | 523 | 88 |
| Cesar Gomez R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 4.2% | .316 | 5.08 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 160 | +0.21 | 3.97 | 345 | 88 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .277 | 3.52 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 44 | -0.88 | 3.52 | 128 | 87 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 87 |
| Mitchell Kilkenny R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.64 | 17.6% | 5.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 5.79 | 13.4% | 5.1% | 124 | +2.15 | 3.18 | 237 | 87 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.66 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .261 | 4.22 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.44 | 3.50 | 368 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.7M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $11M | $22M | +$11M | ||