Josh Stephan
P
Round Rock Express
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.6 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION86 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129119vR 110
ERA4.85
FIP4.85
K%15.8%
BB%6.2%
K-BB%9.6%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 156 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 9 | 40 | 172 | 50 | 16 | 7 | 90% | 4.0 | 20.4% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 5.17 | 5.80 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 9 | 40 | 172 | 50 | 16 | 7 | 90% | 4.0 | 29.1% | 9.3% | 19.8% | 4.1% | 5.17 | 4.08 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 19 | 103 | 422 | 115 | 31 | 11 | 90% | 4.9 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 4.2% | 3.14 | 4.67 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 19 | 103 | 422 | 115 | 31 | 11 | 90% | 4.9 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 19.9% | 2.6% | 3.14 | 3.16 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 12 | 67 | 253 | 78 | 13 | 8 | 92% | 5.1 | 24.0% | 5.9% | 18.1% | 4.8% | 2.29 | 4.44 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 12 | 67 | 253 | 78 | 13 | 8 | 92% | 5.1 | 30.8% | 5.1% | 25.7% | 3.2% | 2.29 | 2.91 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 12 | 11 | 58 | 251 | 55 | 17 | 9 | 92% | 4.9 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 3.7% | 4.94 | 4.58 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 12 | 11 | 58 | 251 | 55 | 17 | 9 | 92% | 4.9 | 21.9% | 6.8% | 15.1% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 4.09 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 22 | 112 | 487 | 91 | 31 | 16 | 88% | 4.5 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 4.67 | 4.97 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 22 | 112 | 487 | 91 | 31 | 16 | 88% | 4.5 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.17 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 18 | 16 | 86 | 378 | 85 | 26 | 17 | 89% | 4.8 | 19.8% | 7.2% | 12.6% | 4.9% | 5.53 | 5.06 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 70 | 295 | 47 | 18 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.8% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TEX | 1 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 7.0 | 15.8% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 156 | 673 | 132 | 44 | 27 | — | — | 19.6% | 6.6% | 13.0% | 4.1% | 5.22 | 4.97 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 7 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 15.8% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 25 | 145 | 613 | 108 | 38 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 4.66 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 25 | 152 | 643 | 120 | 41 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.7% | 6.3% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.56 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 26 | 26 | 154 | 650 | 123 | 42 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 6.5% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 26 | 26 | 154 | 650 | 122 | 43 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.63 | 4.66 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 25 | 147 | 621 | 115 | 43 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 6.9% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 4.73 | 4.79 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 23 | 23 | 138 | 584 | 106 | 42 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 4.97 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 52 | 19 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 84 | 28 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.7% | 6.3% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 20 | 20 | 122 | 515 | 97 | 33 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.9% | 6.5% | 12.4% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 22 | 22 | 131 | 553 | 104 | 37 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 4.65 | 4.68 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 22 | 22 | 130 | 549 | 102 | 38 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 6.9% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 4.76 | 4.82 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 96 | 38 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 3.9% | 4.90 | 5.00 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 116 | 116 | 691 | 2916 | 539 | 195 | 105 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.5% | 6.7% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.72 | 4.36 | +8.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 156 | 56 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.5% | 6.7% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.72 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 99 | 89 | 466 | 1963 | 374 | 146 | 88 | 90% | 4.7 | 19.1% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 4.5% | 4.23 | 4.88 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 38 | 200 | 842 | 161 | 62 | 38 | 90% | 4.7 | 19.1% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 4.5% | 4.23 | 4.88 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Stephan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.85 | 15.8% | 6.2% | 3.5% | — | 4.60 | 18.4% | 12.1% | 452 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| Jose Reyes R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 14.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .289 | 5.03 | 11.0% | 2.8% | 100 | +0.81 | 4.22 | 225 | 87 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.77 | 16.3% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .279 | 4.10 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 216 | +0.33 | 3.74 | 459 | 87 |
| Connor Noland R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.78 | 14.8% | 5.7% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.26 | 16.6% | 8.0% | 315 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 423 | 87 |
| Brady Feigl R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.81 | 15.9% | 7.0% | 2.1% | .333 | 5.77 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 122 | +1.96 | 3.81 | 257 | 87 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.68 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .305 | 5.95 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 55 | +1.27 | 4.68 | 161 | 86 |
| Justin Vernia R 2025 · 5.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.07 | 17.0% | 8.4% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.46 | 14.7% | 10.2% | 79 | -0.61 | 4.42 | 193 | 86 |
| Shane Greene R 2028 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.60 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.67 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.93 | 2.90 | 484 | 86 |
| Gabe Mosser R 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.79 | 17.7% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .346 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 6.9% | 104 | +0.84 | 3.79 | 606 | 85 |
| Edison Frias R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 4.4% | .318 | 4.15 | 13.7% | 3.5% | 166 | -0.81 | 4.15 | 279 | 85 |
| Drew Anderson R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.31 | 17.1% | 6.1% | 3.4% | .265 | 4.88 | 20.1% | 9.6% | 141 | +0.57 | 3.11 | 506 | 85 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.54 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .307 | 4.08 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 370 | -0.46 | 3.05 | 907 | 85 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.84 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.23 | 21.6% | 12.3% | 25 | +0.39 | 3.84 | 254 | 85 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.67 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.85 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 332 | +1.18 | 3.67 | 523 | 84 |
| Chris Campos R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.69 | 17.0% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 306 | 84 |
| Ryan Hawks R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.72 | 13.9% | 8.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 5.48 | 14.6% | 3.7% | 67 | +0.76 | 4.72 | 304 | 84 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.32 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.09 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.23 | 3.09 | 129 | 84 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 15.7% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .260 | 4.50 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 343 | +0.44 | 3.73 | 725 | 84 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 84 |
| Jesse Scholtens R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.73 | 17.2% | 6.3% | 2.3% | .306 | 3.74 | 19.9% | 11.9% | 227 | +0.01 | 3.13 | 825 | 84 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.16 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.22 | 3.50 | 472 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 146 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 1.37 | 4.71 |
| Matt Harvey ('21) | 6 | 120 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 1.33 | 4.98 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |
| Mike Fiers ('20) | 6 | 153 | 19.6% | 7.1% | 1.50 | 4.17 |
| Tanner Roark ('20) | 6 | 149 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 1.24 | 4.19 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Jordan Zimmermann ('19) | 5 | 142 | 17.2% | 5.2% | 1.44 | 5.06 |