Hector Nieves — OGILVIE

Hector NievesSS FCL Astros

Age 23 L/R 6'2" / 185 lbs ROK HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 139 proj PA

wRC+†48

AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .259 / .278

PA139

HR2

K%36

BB%8

ISO94

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	2 teams	—	144	136	19	3	3	2	4	59	2	2	2	140	176	250	426	110	221	41	3	184	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	2 teams	—	144	132	28	5	3	3	8	46	2	2	2	212	268	364	631	152	294	32	6	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	2 teams	—	141	126	19	1	0	1	8	52	3	4	2	151	219	183	402	32	234	37	6	184	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	2 teams	—	141	121	24	3	0	1	13	35	3	4	2	198	292	248	540	50	258	25	9	250	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	3 teams	—	132	114	15	3	0	2	12	49	3	5	1	132	233	211	443	79	197	37	9	212	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	3 teams	—	132	107	19	4	0	3	19	39	3	5	1	178	318	299	617	121	235	30	14	286	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK	FCL Astros	—	95	80	6	2	1	0	13	58	1	7	4	75	213	125	338	50	261	61	14	186	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK	FCL Astros	—	95	70	11	4	1	1	23	41	1	7	4	157	372	286	658	129	345	43	24	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	HOU	—	139	126	23	4	1	2	11	50	1	2	1	183	254	278	531	95	287	36	8	248	48	-8	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	HOU	30%	257	231	46	9	2	4	21	88	3	4	1	199	275	307	582	108	289	34	8	259	57	-13	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.2
2028	25	MLB	HOU	44%	331	298	59	11	2	6	27	111	3	6	1	198	271	309	580	111	289	34	8	267	62	-14	+1	+0	+4	+9	-0.0
2029	26	MLB	HOU	51%	381	342	69	13	2	8	32	125	4	7	2	202	278	322	599	120	290	33	8	271	66	-15	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.1
2030	27	MLB	HOU	52%	402	361	73	14	2	8	34	131	4	7	2	202	278	319	597	116	290	33	8	273	67	-15	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.1
2027	24	MLB	HOU	30%	77	70	13	3	0	1	6	26	1	1	0	186	260	271	531	86	291	34	8	254	53	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	HOU	44%	146	131	27	5	1	3	12	49	2	3	1	206	283	328	611	122	292	34	8	262	58	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2029	26	MLB	HOU	51%	193	173	36	7	1	4	16	63	2	3	1	208	283	329	612	121	292	33	8	266	62	-8	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2030	27	MLB	HOU	52%	211	189	38	7	1	4	18	69	2	4	1	201	278	312	590	111	292	33	9	268	63	-9	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	627	563	114	22	3	12	52	207	7	11	3	202	278	316	594	114	294	33	8	264	60	-28	+1	+0	+7	+18	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	118	23	3	12	54	215	7	11	3	202	278	313	591	111	294	33	8	264	60	-29	+1	+0	+7	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	2022	1814	329	60	13	33	162	723	24	44	16	181	258	283	541	102	275	36	8	248	48	-120	+2	+0	+22	+57	-3.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	106	19	4	11	52	232	8	14	5	182	258	285	543	103	275	36	8	248	48	-38	+1	+0	+7	+18	-1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	93	85	19	4	3	2	5	26	1	1	2	224	275	412	686	188	288	28	5	295	84	-2	-1	—	—	+3	0.0
2021	18	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	51	47	9	1	0	1	3	20	1	1	0	191	255	277	531	85	308	39	6	246	46	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	19	ROK	FCL Astros Orange	—	116	99	21	1	0	1	11	29	3	4	2	212	310	253	562	40	278	25	9	262	59	-5	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2022	19	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	25	22	3	2	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	136	208	227	436	91	176	24	8	195	7	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	20	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	46	40	4	1	0	0	4	18	0	0	1	100	182	125	307	25	167	39	9	148	-29	-7	-0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2023	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	16	13	4	0	0	2	3	5	0	0	0	308	438	769	1.207	462	333	31	19	504	244	+3	+0	—	—	+0	0.3
2023	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	70	54	11	3	0	1	12	16	3	5	0	204	377	315	692	111	263	23	17	326	108	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.4
2024	21	ROK	FCL Astros	—	95	70	11	4	1	1	23	41	1	7	4	157	372	286	658	129	345	43	24	317	101	+0	-0	—	—	+3	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	766	14	13	199	272	312	+8	+9	-0.3	-0.1
	/162	664	12	12	199	272	312	+7.1	+7.8	-0.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Hector Nieves (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	185/259/278	93	287	2	2	36%	8%	48	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jackson Cluff 2021 · A	24	39→29	42→45	51→60	39	193/259/298	104	285	9	12	34%	6%	53	-1.5	180/251/274	94	284	8	13	37%	7%	44	-2.1	181/273/314	133	265	15	28	35%	10%	61	-0.6
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	35	43→50	48→40	39	178/241/285	107	272	11	4	37%	7%	42	-2.3	203/260/325	122	275	13	4	30%	6%	60	-1.0	207/268/341	134	263	14	2	26%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Andy Yerzy 2021 · A	23	35	38→50	49→40	35	174/224/252	77	276	5	7	37%	5%	25	-3.5	182/265/327	145	260	18	6	36%	8%	64	-0.8	160/246/298	138	227	19	4	38%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Estee Harris 2008 · A	23	37→31	40→50	49→50	36	182/234/272	91	293	8	13	39%	6%	35	-2.8	218/265/340	122	373	12	12	42%	5%	66	-0.6	212/254/349	137	373	14	14	45%	4%	59	-0.4
✕Caleb Roberts 2023 · AA	23	41→42	43→45	50	43	199/278/313	114	297	11	12	34%	8%	65	-0.7	202/279/326	124	295	11	11	33%	8%	69	-0.4	187/272/303	117	258	12	11	30%	8%	58	-0.7
✕Michael Pérez 2016 · A	23	34	41→50	42→40	41	176/240/273	97	255	9	4	33%	7%	38	-2.6	207/260/304	97	277	8	3	27%	6%	53	-1.5	221/281/340	119	284	13	0	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Je'Von Ward 2023 · A	23	44→35	39→45	47→50	37	209/258/295	87	322	6	11	36%	6%	50	-1.7	194/260/303	109	321	11	10	40%	8%	54	-1.4	189/272/316	127	289	15	8	37%	10%	63	-0.4
✕Cole Roederer 2023 · AA	23	42→31	45	47→50	39	208/266/327	119	307	12	12	35%	7%	63	-0.8	195/267/309	114	297	12	11	36%	8%	59	-1.1	173/256/281	107	263	12	11	36%	9%	46	-1.2
✕Drew Robinson 2015 · AAA	23	37→40	43→55	49→50	41	183/253/301	119	283	10	9	37%	8%	51	-1.7	202/277/372	170	283	20	12	34%	9%	79	+0.3	213/286/393	179	309	20	12	36%	9%	85	+0.5
✕Jacob Wetzel 2023 · A	23	39→35	44→45	49→50	45	196/278/309	113	276	13	10	32%	9%	64	-0.8	190/263/303	113	285	10	13	34%	8%	56	-1.3	175/248/290	115	270	9	16	36%	8%	43	-1.1
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	34	40→45	53→50	34	176/209/269	93	256	6	9	34%	4%	22	-3.7	215/263/298	83	301	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Randy Florentino 2023 · A	23	37	40→50	47→45	41	183/247/269	86	275	9	6	35%	8%	40	-2.4	197/245/284	87	262	8	6	27%	6%	42	-2.3	183/224/259	76	232	7	4	24%	5%	25	-1.0
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA	23	40	43→45	51→55	40	193/267/298	105	296	11	13	36%	7%	56	-1.3	203/272/299	96	311	8	12	35%	8%	58	-1.2	170/253/239	69	277	4	11	36%	9%	33	-0.6
✕Mark Contreras 2019 · A	24	40→37	42→50	47→55	38	194/256/300	106	290	9	11	35%	6%	52	-1.6	186/249/308	122	277	12	13	36%	6%	52	-1.6	197/258/338	141	284	18	24	36%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Nick Quintana 2021 · A	23	39	40→45	50→45	37	189/243/279	90	293	7	9	36%	6%	40	-2.4	181/265/289	108	254	11	5	31%	9%	54	-1.4	161/255/263	101	223	11	3	31%	10%	40	-1.3
✕Jose Brizuela 2016 · A	23	41→40	43→50	50→45	46	204/274/320	117	274	10	7	28%	8%	65	-0.7	211/268/334	123	297	13	5	32%	7%	66	-0.6	195/247/325	130	268	17	1	33%	6%	52	-0.7
✕Jonny Butler 2022 · A	23	44→31	40→45	50→55	43	208/271/296	88	303	7	9	32%	8%	56	-1.3	195/261/304	109	286	9	16	33%	7%	55	-1.4	172/247/285	113	246	10	19	32%	8%	41	-1.3
✕Michael Trautwein 2023 · A	23	41	40→45	47→45	34	187/248/271	84	339	8	7	44%	7%	40	-2.4	192/264/295	103	312	10	6	39%	8%	54	-1.4	176/248/279	102	283	9	5	38%	7%	40	-1.3
✕D.J. Wilson 2019 · A	22	36	42→55	50	39	182/240/287	105	275	9	13	36%	7%	41	-2.3	183/249/284	101	305	9	14	40%	7%	44	-2.1	110/193/203	93	185	13	21	46%	8%	1	-1.4
✕Devin Foyle 2021 · A	24	42→36	40→45	48→45	45	201/279/294	93	296	8	12	32%	9%	60	-1.0	209/277/348	139	270	16	8	28%	8%	73	-0.1	196/269/342	145	244	18	6	27%	8%	65	-0.4