Hector NievesSS
FCL Astros
Age 23
L/R
6'2" / 185 lbs
ROK
H +4%HR -3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.7 · 2030
wRC+†54
AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .264 / .294
PA139
HR2
K%33
BB%8
MLB%0%
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2030
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | — | — | — |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2036 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2037 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $4M | $-4M | -$8M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | 2 teams | 144 | 136 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 59 | 2 | 2 | 2 | .147 | .183 | .257 | .440 | .110 | .234 | 41 | 3 | .179 | -5 | -17 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -1.2 |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | 2 teams | 141 | 126 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 52 | 3 | 4 | 2 | .151 | .219 | .183 | .402 | .032 | .234 | 37 | 6 | .184 | -1 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -1.1 |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | 3 teams | 132 | 114 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 3 | 5 | 1 | .132 | .233 | .211 | .443 | .079 | .203 | 39 | 9 | .209 | 18 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | FCL Astros | 95 | 79 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 59 | 1 | 7 | 4 | .089 | .234 | .177 | .411 | .089 | .300 | 62 | 15 | .186 | 1 | -11 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 139 | 126 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .198 | .268 | .302 | .570 | .103 | .288 | 33 | 8 | .256 | 54 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB 10% | HOU | 257 | 233 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 82 | 2 | 4 | 1 | .206 | .275 | .326 | .601 | .120 | .290 | 32 | 8 | .272 | 66 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB 25% | HOU | 331 | 298 | 63 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 103 | 3 | 5 | 1 | .211 | .284 | .342 | .626 | .131 | .292 | 31 | 8 | .282 | 74 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB 42% | HOU | 381 | 342 | 74 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 116 | 4 | 6 | 2 | .216 | .291 | .354 | .645 | .137 | .293 | 30 | 8 | .288 | 79 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +11 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB 58% | HOU | 402 | 361 | 77 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 34 | 122 | 4 | 6 | 2 | .213 | .288 | .346 | .634 | .133 | .293 | 30 | 8 | .289 | 79 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +11 | 0.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB 68% | HOU | 414 | 371 | 79 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 127 | 4 | 6 | 1 | .213 | .290 | .342 | .632 | .129 | .293 | 31 | 9 | .288 | 79 | -10 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +12 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB 85% | HOU | 413 | 370 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 128 | 4 | 5 | 1 | .211 | .288 | .341 | .628 | .130 | .292 | 31 | 9 | .286 | 77 | -11 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +12 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB 92% | HOU | 410 | 367 | 77 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 128 | 4 | 4 | 1 | .210 | .287 | .341 | .628 | .131 | .290 | 31 | 9 | .283 | 75 | -12 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 399 | 357 | 74 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 35 | 126 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .207 | .285 | .331 | .616 | .123 | .289 | 32 | 9 | .279 | 72 | -13 | +0 | -3 | +4 | +11 | 0.0 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 382 | 342 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 123 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .202 | .280 | .319 | .598 | .117 | .287 | 32 | 9 | .274 | 68 | -14 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +11 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 354 | 318 | 63 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 116 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .198 | .274 | .311 | .585 | .113 | .285 | 33 | 8 | .269 | 64 | -14 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +10 | -0.5 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 311 | 278 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 105 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .198 | .276 | .313 | .589 | .115 | .284 | 34 | 9 | .263 | 59 | -14 | +0 | -5 | +3 | +9 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4705 | 4218 | 843 | 149 | 27 | 101 | 395 | 1543 | 49 | 58 | 19 | .200 | .276 | .320 | .596 | .120 | .285 | 33 | 8 | .270 | 64 | -189 | +4 | -20 | +50 | +133 | -2.1 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 583 | 117 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 55 | 213 | 7 | 8 | 3 | .201 | .278 | .322 | .600 | .122 | .286 | 33 | 8 | .270 | 64 | -26 | +0 | -3 | +7 | +18 | -0.3 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Astros | 93 | 85 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .224 | .275 | .412 | .686 | .188 | .288 | 28 | 5 | .295 | 84 | -2 | -1 | — | — | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2021 | 18 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | 51 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .191 | .255 | .277 | .531 | .085 | .308 | 39 | 6 | .246 | 46 | -3 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Astros Orange | 116 | 99 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 2 | .212 | .310 | .253 | .562 | .040 | .278 | 25 | 9 | .262 | 59 | -5 | +0 | — | — | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 19 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | 25 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .136 | .208 | .227 | .436 | .091 | .176 | 24 | 8 | .195 | 7 | -3 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 20 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 46 | 40 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .100 | .182 | .125 | .307 | .025 | .167 | 39 | 9 | .148 | -29 | -7 | -0 | — | — | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 16 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .308 | .438 | .769 | 1.207 | .462 | .333 | 31 | 19 | .504 | 244 | +3 | +0 | — | — | +0 | 0.3 |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Astros | 70 | 54 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 0 | .204 | .377 | .315 | .692 | .111 | .263 | 23 | 17 | .326 | 108 | +1 | +1 | — | — | +2 | 0.4 |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | FCL Astros | 95 | 70 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 41 | 1 | 7 | 4 | .157 | .372 | .286 | .658 | .129 | .345 | 43 | 24 | .317 | 101 | +0 | -0 | — | — | +3 | 0.3 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Hector Nieves (OGILVIE) | 23 | — | — | — | — | .195/.264/.294 | .099 | .288 | 2 | 2 | 33% | 8% | 54 | -0.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Drew Robinson 2015 · AAA |
23 | 38→41 | 44→55 | 48→50 | 42 | .188/.261/.307 | .119 | .286 | 11 | 9 | 36% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .195/.271/.352 | .157 | .280 | 18 | 12 | 35% | 9% | 72 | -0.2 | .207/.288/.362 | .155 | .320 | 17 | 12 | 37% | 10% | 78 | +0.1 |
|
✕Caleb Roberts 2023 · AA |
23 | 40→43 | 42→50 | 50 | 42 | .194/.271/.297 | .103 | .298 | 9 | 12 | 36% | 8% | 58 | -1.2 | .202/.279/.332 | .130 | .296 | 12 | 11 | 33% | 8% | 70 | -0.3 | .195/.272/.328 | .134 | .276 | 13 | 10 | 32% | 8% | 64 | -0.6 |
|
✕Adrian Del Castillo 2023 · A |
23 | 36→45 | 43→55 | 52→40 | 41 | .184/.246/.294 | .110 | .257 | 10 | 7 | 32% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .210/.280/.351 | .141 | .289 | 15 | 4 | 31% | 8% | 76 | +0.0 | .218/.292/.382 | .164 | .293 | 19 | 1 | 31% | 9% | 86 | +0.5 |
|
✕Isan Díaz 2019 · AAA |
23 | 39→40 | 46→55 | 48→45 | 43 | .198/.269/.330 | .132 | .286 | 14 | 10 | 34% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .209/.280/.354 | .145 | .285 | 17 | 7 | 31% | 8% | 76 | +0.1 | .204/.284/.367 | .164 | .263 | 21 | 5 | 30% | 9% | 75 | +0.0 |
|
✕Raynel Delgado 2023 · AA |
23 | 41→51 | 40→45 | 48→60 | 42 | .199/.267/.289 | .091 | .281 | 8 | 15 | 30% | 7% | 54 | -1.4 | .226/.291/.327 | .101 | .311 | 9 | 22 | 28% | 8% | 72 | -0.2 | .240/.303/.338 | .098 | .325 | 8 | 32 | 27% | 7% | 77 | +0.1 |
|
✕Matthew Sweeney 2011 · AA |
23 | 42→41 | 44→50 | 49→45 | 41 | .207/.267/.325 | .119 | .293 | 11 | 4 | 32% | 7% | 63 | -0.9 | .184/.247/.296 | .112 | .270 | 10 | 4 | 34% | 7% | 47 | -1.9 | .152/.219/.263 | .111 | .216 | 11 | 1 | 34% | 7% | 24 | -1.3 |
|
✕Kyle Kubitza 2013 · A |
23 | 40→50 | 41→50 | 49→50 | 43 | .194/.262/.301 | .107 | .286 | 7 | 11 | 33% | 8% | 54 | -1.4 | .214/.288/.342 | .128 | .327 | 9 | 10 | 34% | 9% | 76 | +0.0 | .219/.294/.350 | .131 | .334 | 9 | 10 | 34% | 9% | 79 | +0.3 |
|
✕Anthony Seigler 2022 · A |
23 | 41→39 | 41→45 | 44→55 | 45 | .195/.271/.299 | .104 | .290 | 8 | 6 | 34% | 9% | 58 | -1.2 | .192/.292/.304 | .112 | .255 | 10 | 14 | 26% | 12% | 69 | -0.4 | .200/.299/.321 | .122 | .247 | 12 | 27 | 23% | 12% | 74 | -0.1 |
|
✕Randy Florentino 2023 · A |
23 | 36 | 41→50 | 47→45 | 40 | .183/.244/.273 | .090 | .273 | 9 | 7 | 35% | 7% | 40 | -2.4 | .196/.244/.284 | .088 | .259 | 9 | 6 | 27% | 6% | 42 | -2.3 | .184/.224/.260 | .076 | .231 | 7 | 4 | 23% | 4% | 25 | -1.0 |
|
✕Corey Joyce 2022 · AA |
23 | 41 | 39→45 | 53→50 | 39 | .193/.262/.274 | .080 | .300 | 7 | 13 | 36% | 7% | 48 | -1.9 | .208/.307/.328 | .120 | .294 | 12 | 12 | 31% | 10% | 82 | +0.5 | .212/.315/.318 | .105 | .301 | 9 | 14 | 29% | 10% | 80 | +0.2 |
|
●Ryan Schimpf 2011 · A |
23 | 39 | 43→60 | 52→45 | 39 | .192/.257/.314 | .121 | .284 | 9 | 10 | 34% | 6% | 56 | -1.3 | .198/.273/.355 | .157 | .273 | 17 | 7 | 32% | 8% | 74 | -0.1 | .201/.284/.419 | .218 | .235 | 28 | 2 | 28% | 9% | 91 | +0.9 |
|
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A |
23 | 41→46 | 42→50 | 51→40 | 45 | .201/.269/.304 | .103 | .264 | 9 | 11 | 26% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .222/.280/.362 | .140 | .293 | 16 | 7 | 29% | 6% | 79 | +0.3 | .226/.286/.378 | .152 | .294 | 19 | 3 | 29% | 6% | 82 | +0.3 |
|
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA |
23 | 36 | 43→50 | 49→40 | 40 | .184/.244/.291 | .107 | .270 | 10 | 4 | 35% | 7% | 44 | -2.1 | .200/.256/.326 | .126 | .277 | 13 | 4 | 32% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .206/.268/.347 | .141 | .262 | 15 | 2 | 27% | 6% | 67 | -0.3 |
|
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A |
23 | 40 | 45→55 | 47→45 | 45 | .204/.281/.326 | .122 | .262 | 13 | 8 | 27% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 | .219/.278/.391 | .172 | .284 | 22 | 4 | 30% | 6% | 85 | +0.7 | .215/.266/.411 | .196 | .270 | 28 | 0 | 32% | 5% | 81 | +0.2 |
|
✕Michael Pérez 2016 · A |
23 | 35 | 41→50 | 42→40 | 42 | .179/.244/.278 | .099 | .260 | 9 | 4 | 33% | 8% | 41 | -2.3 | .208/.262/.308 | .100 | .277 | 8 | 3 | 27% | 6% | 56 | -1.3 | .224/.284/.351 | .127 | .286 | 14 | 0 | 26% | 7% | 75 | -0.0 |
|
✕Livan Soto 2022 · AA |
22 | 37→47 | 39→40 | 49→50 | 43 | .183/.239/.268 | .085 | .247 | 7 | 10 | 28% | 7% | 36 | -2.7 | .222/.288/.312 | .090 | .301 | 7 | 10 | 27% | 8% | 68 | -0.5 | .234/.306/.318 | .084 | .309 | 7 | 8 | 25% | 9% | 75 | -0.0 |
|
✕Matt Mangini 2009 · AA |
23 | 40→50 | 41→45 | 45 | 38 | .197/.254/.290 | .093 | .285 | 10 | 5 | 33% | 6% | 49 | -1.8 | .236/.281/.353 | .117 | .313 | 12 | 7 | 27% | 5% | 76 | +0.0 | .258/.299/.378 | .121 | .331 | 12 | 6 | 25% | 5% | 85 | +0.5 |
|
✕Oliver Dunn 2022 · AA |
24 | 39→47 | 44→50 | 52→55 | 45 | .189/.271/.304 | .115 | .294 | 11 | 13 | 37% | 10% | 59 | -1.1 | .219/.303/.372 | .153 | .347 | 16 | 14 | 37% | 10% | 90 | +1.0 | .205/.288/.342 | .137 | .315 | 13 | 20 | 36% | 9% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
✕Sean Coughlin 2008 · A |
23 | 41→38 | 41→50 | 44→30 | 41 | .197/.264/.296 | .099 | .292 | 9 | 4 | 34% | 7% | 54 | -1.4 | .212/.283/.344 | .132 | .258 | 15 | 2 | 23% | 8% | 75 | -0.0 | .210/.282/.344 | .134 | .245 | 16 | 1 | 21% | 8% | 75 | -0.0 |
|
✕Luis Vázquez 2023 · AAA |
23 | 42→46 | 42→50 | 46→45 | 38 | .209/.255/.311 | .102 | .286 | 10 | 11 | 30% | 5% | 53 | -1.5 | .226/.285/.358 | .132 | .298 | 15 | 9 | 28% | 6% | 79 | +0.3 | .230/.295/.366 | .136 | .298 | 17 | 8 | 27% | 6% | 82 | +0.3 |