Michael Trautwein
C Chattanooga Lookouts| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/AACIN | 335 | .195/.282/.347 | 8 | 4 | 34 | — | .160/.225/.260 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA/ACIN | 97 | .205/.396/.370 | 3 | 1 | 72 | — | .187/.323/.344 |
| 2026 | 26 | AACIN | 74 | .214/.397/.375 | 3 | 2 | 72 | — | .167/.315/.267 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBCIN | 2 | .187/.269/.312 | 0 | 0 | 63 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBCIN | 43 | .188/.270/.312 | 1 | 1 | 63 | -0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 34 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 294 | 267 | 561 | 67 | 353 | 38 | 9 | 265 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 89 | 79 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 152 | 239 | 165 | 403 | 13 | 255 | 37 | 9 | 197 | -9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 27 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 296 | 480 | 776 | 240 | 333 | 41 | 7 | 340 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 166 | 136 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 41 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 235 | 370 | 353 | 723 | 118 | 319 | 25 | 14 | 334 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 141 | 122 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 350 | 418 | 768 | 156 | 350 | 28 | 11 | 342 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 54 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 333 | 435 | 768 | 217 | 280 | 33 | 13 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 290 | 260 | 50 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 100 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 192 | 271 | 365 | 636 | 173 | 275 | 34 | 9 | 283 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 45 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 356 | 216 | 572 | 296 | 22 | 16 | 286 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 81 | 64 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 362 | 328 | 691 | 125 | 324 | 36 | 16 | 323 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 16 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 562 | 667 | 1.229 | 444 | 167 | 12 | 44 | 516 | 150 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 74 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 397 | 375 | 772 | 161 | 333 | 35 | 18 | 357 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 34 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 129 | 206 | 161 | 367 | 32 | 313 | 50 | 6 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 89 | 81 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 123 | 193 | 136 | 329 | 12 | 229 | 45 | 7 | 155 | -9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 27 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 185 | 269 | 454 | 115 | 294 | 56 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 166 | 144 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 52 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 201 | 303 | 306 | 609 | 104 | 288 | 31 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 141 | 128 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 286 | 336 | 622 | 117 | 328 | 36 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 290 | 268 | 41 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 120 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 153 | 212 | 269 | 480 | 116 | 250 | 41 | 6 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 45 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 311 | 205 | 516 | 282 | 27 | 11 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 81 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 188 | 300 | 304 | 604 | 116 | 294 | 43 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 16 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 438 | 545 | 983 | 364 | 117 | 19 | 31 | 390 | 150 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 74 | 60 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 167 | 315 | 267 | 582 | 100 | 293 | 43 | 12 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 34 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 129 | 206 | 161 | 367 | 32 | 286 | 50 | 6 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Daytona Tortugas | — | 34 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 294 | 267 | 561 | 67 | 353 | 38 | 9 | 265 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 116 | 107 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 55 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 131 | 191 | 168 | 360 | 37 | 250 | 47 | 6 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 116 | 104 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 252 | 240 | 493 | 67 | 271 | 38 | 9 | 230 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 361 | 321 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 121 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 209 | 292 | 318 | 610 | 109 | 311 | 34 | 8 | 271 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 361 | 304 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 98 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 243 | 357 | 391 | 748 | 148 | 327 | 27 | 12 | 339 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 335 | 307 | 48 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 132 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 156 | 222 | 257 | 480 | 101 | 251 | 39 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 335 | 297 | 58 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 110 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 195 | 282 | 347 | 629 | 152 | 278 | 33 | 10 | 284 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 97 | 80 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 175 | 312 | 287 | 600 | 112 | 293 | 39 | 13 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 97 | 73 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 205 | 396 | 370 | 766 | 164 | 300 | 32 | 21 | 355 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 74 | 60 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 167 | 315 | 267 | 582 | 100 | 308 | 43 | 12 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 74 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 397 | 375 | 772 | 161 | 333 | 35 | 18 | 357 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 34 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 129 | 206 | 161 | 367 | 32 | 313 | 50 | 6 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 116 | 107 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 55 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 131 | 191 | 168 | 360 | 37 | 244 | 47 | 6 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 361 | 320 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 121 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 209 | 292 | 319 | 611 | 109 | 306 | 34 | 8 | 271 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 335 | 306 | 48 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 132 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 157 | 222 | 258 | 480 | 101 | 254 | 39 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 97 | 81 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 173 | 312 | 284 | 596 | 111 | 265 | 39 | 13 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 74 | 61 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 164 | 315 | 262 | 577 | 98 | 293 | 43 | 12 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 335 | 306 | 48 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 132 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 157 | 222 | 258 | 480 | 101 | 254 | 39 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 97 | 81 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 173 | 312 | 284 | 596 | 111 | 265 | 39 | 13 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 74 | 61 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 164 | 315 | 262 | 577 | 98 | 293 | 43 | 12 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | CIN | 2% | 200 | 177 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 63 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 184 | 267 | 304 | 572 | 120 | 253 | 32 | 8 | 261 | 63 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | CIN | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 187 | 269 | 312 | 581 | 125 | 254 | 50 | 0 | 265 | 63 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | CIN | 27% | 161 | 144 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 50 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 186 | 268 | 305 | 573 | 119 | 254 | 31 | 8 | 261 | 63 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | CIN | 27% | 43 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 270 | 312 | 582 | 125 | 255 | 30 | 9 | 265 | 63 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 43 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 279 | 289 | 569 | 105 | 250 | 30 | 9 | 265 | 52 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 574 | 106 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 60 | 197 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 185 | 278 | 289 | 568 | 105 | 251 | 30 | 9 | 265 | 52 | -29 | +3 | -3 | +12 | +14 | -0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1283 | 1143 | 200 | 38 | 5 | 22 | 104 | 478 | 27 | 17 | 6 | 175 | 260 | 275 | 535 | 100 | 274 | 37 | 8 | 244 | 52 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 579 | 101 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 53 | 242 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 174 | 260 | 275 | 535 | 100 | 273 | 37 | 8 | 244 | 52 | -29 | +1 | -2 | +12 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 74 PAwOBA .349 → .274 (−74)K% 35.1% → 42.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 11.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.41% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 4.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 26.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 7.82% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .349 → .274; ISO .161 → .127; BABIP .333 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 81 PAwOBA .319 → .252 (−68)K% 35.8% → 43.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.80% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.05% | ÷1.087 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 9.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 3.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.71% | ÷0.963 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 24.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷1.092 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 4.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.71% | ÷1.021 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.42% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 93, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .319 → .252; ISO .125 → .100; BABIP .324 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ADaytona Tortugas · 16 PAwOBA .505 → .390 (−114)K% 12.5% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.008 | ×1.360 | — | — | 16.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 43.75% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 30.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.960 | 10.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.032 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 10.63% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .505 → .390; ISO .444 → .398; BABIP .167 → .117. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAALouisville Bats · 290 PAwOBA .277 → .215 (−62)K% 34.5% → 41.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.48% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.62% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.930 | ×0.995 | ×1.033 | 14.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.033 | 8.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.88% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×1.033 | 1.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.111 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.26% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .277 → .215; ISO .173 → .123; BABIP .275 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 45 PAwOBA .280 → .238 (−42)K% 22.2% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.56% | ÷0.970 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 10.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.63% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 28.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.236 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.089 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 93, 2B 147, 3B 100, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .280 → .238; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .296 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 166 PAwOBA .329 → .266 (−63)K% 24.7% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.70% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.86% | ÷1.069 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 8.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.61% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 3.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.11% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×1.012 | 20.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.42% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×0.974 | ×1.012 | 7.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.974 | ×1.012 | 0.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.11% | ÷1.017 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.68% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 92, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .329 → .266; ISO .118 → .098; BABIP .319 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 141 PAwOBA .335 → .276 (−60)K% 27.7% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.66% | ÷0.975 | ×1.270 | — | — | 36.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.64% | ÷1.020 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.42% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 1.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.51% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 25.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.02% | ÷1.027 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 4.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷0.916 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.82% | ÷0.951 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.01% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 83, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .335 → .276; ISO .156 → .124; BABIP .350 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 89 PAwOBA .195 → .155 (−40)K% 37.1% → 45.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.08% | ÷1.047 | ×1.270 | — | — | 44.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.99% | ÷0.958 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.91% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×0.998 | 22.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.217 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×0.998 | 1.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.850 | ×1.005 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.058 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 143, 3B 106, K 109, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .195 → .155; ISO .013 → .008; BABIP .255 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .