Ian Moller
C Frisco RoughRiders| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+TEX | 321 | .208/.344/.287 | 2 | 16 | 31 | — | .157/.244/.220 |
| 2025 | 22 | AATEX | 289 | .207/.307/.295 | 4 | 7 | 36 | — | .171/.240/.236 |
| 2026 | 23 | AATEX | 290 | .198/.323/.337 | 8 | 4 | 46 | — | .157/.253/.259 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBTEX | 3 | .177/.260/.270 | 0 | 0 | 51 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBTEX | 65 | .182/.265/.283 | 1 | 1 | 56 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBTEX | 117 | .186/.269/.291 | 2 | 2 | 59 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 63 | 50 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 220 | 381 | 480 | 861 | 260 | 296 | 32 | 14 | 384 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 235 | 184 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 47 | 63 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 201 | 369 | 315 | 684 | 114 | 271 | 27 | 20 | 323 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 394 | 326 | 62 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 63 | 112 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 190 | 327 | 294 | 621 | 104 | 267 | 28 | 16 | 293 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 37 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 297 | 273 | 570 | 61 | 350 | 35 | 11 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 321 | 265 | 55 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 54 | 82 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 208 | 344 | 287 | 631 | 79 | 291 | 26 | 17 | 300 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 289 | 251 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 87 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 207 | 307 | 295 | 601 | 88 | 298 | 30 | 12 | 279 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 290 | 243 | 48 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 198 | 323 | 337 | 660 | 140 | 276 | 31 | 14 | 304 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 63 | 54 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 148 | 270 | 315 | 585 | 167 | 223 | 46 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 235 | 199 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 85 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 161 | 283 | 246 | 529 | 85 | 239 | 36 | 14 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 394 | 344 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 149 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 148 | 253 | 218 | 471 | 70 | 242 | 38 | 11 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 321 | 287 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 109 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 157 | 244 | 220 | 463 | 63 | 242 | 34 | 10 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 289 | 263 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 109 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 171 | 240 | 236 | 476 | 65 | 278 | 38 | 8 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 290 | 255 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 111 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 157 | 253 | 259 | 512 | 102 | 244 | 38 | 10 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 63 | 54 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 148 | 270 | 315 | 585 | 167 | 261 | 46 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Rangers | — | 63 | 50 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 220 | 381 | 480 | 861 | 260 | 296 | 32 | 14 | 384 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 235 | 199 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 85 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 161 | 283 | 246 | 529 | 85 | 250 | 36 | 14 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 235 | 184 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 47 | 63 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 201 | 369 | 315 | 684 | 114 | 271 | 27 | 20 | 323 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 431 | 376 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 163 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 152 | 256 | 231 | 488 | 80 | 248 | 38 | 12 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 431 | 359 | 69 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 67 | 125 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 192 | 324 | 292 | 616 | 100 | 274 | 29 | 16 | 290 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 321 | 287 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 109 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 157 | 244 | 220 | 463 | 63 | 243 | 34 | 10 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ RAW | Hickory Crawdads | — | 321 | 265 | 55 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 54 | 82 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 208 | 344 | 287 | 631 | 79 | 291 | 26 | 17 | 300 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 289 | 263 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 109 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 171 | 240 | 236 | 476 | 65 | 276 | 38 | 8 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 289 | 251 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 87 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 207 | 307 | 295 | 601 | 88 | 298 | 30 | 12 | 279 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 290 | 255 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 111 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 157 | 253 | 259 | 512 | 102 | 245 | 38 | 10 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 290 | 243 | 48 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 91 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 198 | 323 | 337 | 660 | 140 | 276 | 31 | 14 | 304 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 63 | 54 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 148 | 270 | 315 | 585 | 167 | 223 | 46 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 235 | 199 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 85 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 161 | 283 | 246 | 529 | 85 | 239 | 36 | 14 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 431 | 375 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 163 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 152 | 256 | 232 | 488 | 80 | 242 | 38 | 12 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 321 | 285 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 109 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 158 | 244 | 221 | 465 | 63 | 242 | 34 | 10 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 289 | 263 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 109 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 171 | 240 | 236 | 476 | 65 | 278 | 38 | 8 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 290 | 255 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 111 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 157 | 253 | 259 | 512 | 102 | 244 | 38 | 10 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 321 | 285 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 109 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 158 | 244 | 221 | 465 | 63 | 242 | 34 | 10 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 289 | 263 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 109 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 171 | 240 | 236 | 476 | 65 | 278 | 38 | 8 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 290 | 255 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 111 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 157 | 253 | 259 | 512 | 102 | 244 | 38 | 10 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | TEX | 2% | 340 | 303 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 116 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 177 | 260 | 267 | 527 | 90 | 262 | 34 | 9 | 244 | 51 | -20 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | TEX | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 260 | 270 | 531 | 93 | 262 | 33 | 0 | 245 | 51 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | TEX | 31% | 211 | 188 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 71 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 182 | 265 | 280 | 544 | 98 | 265 | 34 | 9 | 251 | 56 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | TEX | 45% | 262 | 233 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 86 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 185 | 268 | 287 | 555 | 102 | 266 | 33 | 10 | 255 | 59 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | TEX | 49% | 287 | 256 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 93 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 187 | 269 | 291 | 560 | 104 | 267 | 32 | 9 | 257 | 60 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | TEX | 52% | 303 | 270 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 98 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 188 | 270 | 292 | 562 | 104 | 267 | 32 | 9 | 258 | 61 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | TEX | 52% | 302 | 269 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 97 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 270 | 292 | 561 | 103 | 267 | 32 | 9 | 257 | 60 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | TEX | 31% | 65 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 265 | 283 | 549 | 101 | 264 | 34 | 9 | 252 | 56 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | TEX | 45% | 117 | 104 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 186 | 269 | 291 | 560 | 105 | 265 | 33 | 9 | 257 | 59 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | TEX | 49% | 141 | 126 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 46 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 188 | 270 | 295 | 565 | 107 | 266 | 33 | 9 | 259 | 60 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | TEX | 52% | 156 | 139 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 50 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 189 | 271 | 296 | 567 | 107 | 266 | 32 | 10 | 259 | 61 | -7 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | TEX | 52% | 156 | 140 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 50 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 189 | 270 | 295 | 566 | 106 | 266 | 32 | 9 | 259 | 60 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 635 | 568 | 104 | 20 | 0 | 12 | 59 | 207 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 183 | 265 | 282 | 546 | 99 | 261 | 33 | 9 | 258 | 49 | -31 | +0 | -1 | +11 | +14 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 581 | 106 | 20 | 0 | 12 | 60 | 212 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 182 | 263 | 279 | 542 | 96 | 260 | 33 | 9 | 258 | 49 | -31 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3164 | 2801 | 484 | 95 | 7 | 51 | 316 | 1109 | 24 | 76 | 15 | 173 | 262 | 266 | 529 | 94 | 261 | 35 | 10 | 241 | 49 | -76 | +2 | -2 | +27 | +33 | -1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 99 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 65 | 228 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 172 | 262 | 263 | 525 | 90 | 262 | 35 | 10 | 241 | 49 | -32 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 290 PAwOBA .298 → .236 (−62)K% 31.4% → 38.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.38% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 10.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×1.012 | 18.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.981 | ×1.012 | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.981 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.26% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .298 → .236; ISO .140 → .110; BABIP .276 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 289 PAwOBA .272 → .221 (−51)K% 30.1% → 37.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.10% | ÷0.971 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.080 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 7.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.35% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.17% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.027 | 22.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.10% | ÷0.968 | ×0.840 | ×0.982 | ×1.027 | 5.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.940 | ×0.982 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.44% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.05% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 95, 2B 94, 3B 84, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .272 → .221; ISO .088 → .072; BABIP .298 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Hickory Crawdads · 321 PAwOBA .294 → .214 (−80)K% 25.5% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.55% | ÷0.988 | ×1.310 | — | — | 33.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.82% | ÷1.019 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 10.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.31% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.31% | ÷1.026 | ×0.870 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 18.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.10% | ÷0.994 | ×0.780 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 5.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.55% | ÷1.014 | ×0.850 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.014 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.96% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 105, 2B 99, 3B 103, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .294 → .214; ISO .079 → .063; BABIP .291 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ADown East Wood Ducks · 394 PAwOBA .287 → .223 (−64)K% 28.4% → 37.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.43% | ÷1.022 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.99% | ÷0.971 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 11.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.63% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | 18.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.61% | ÷0.914 | ×0.830 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | 5.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.124 | ×0.910 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.80% | ÷1.082 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.10% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 83, 3B 125, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .287 → .223; ISO .104 → .078; BABIP .267 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADown East Wood Ducks · 235 PAwOBA .319 → .249 (−70)K% 26.8% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.81% | ÷1.014 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 13.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.49% | ÷0.994 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 19.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.96% | ÷1.008 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 3.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.13% | ÷0.912 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.73% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 103, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .319 → .249; ISO .114 → .096; BABIP .271 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Rangers · 63 PAwOBA .370 → .243 (−126)K% 31.7% → 46.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.75% | ÷0.988 | ×1.440 | — | — | 46.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.70% | ÷1.071 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.35% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 4.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.994 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 11.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.015 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 9.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.064 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.015 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 7.75% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 113, K 98, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .370 → .243; ISO .260 → .172; BABIP .296 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .