Ian Moller — OGILVIE

Ian MollerC Frisco RoughRiders

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AA K +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2030

wRC+†47

AVG/OBP/SLG.175 / .251 / .258

PA320

HR4

SB7

K%37

BB%9

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

30→30

PWR

35→35

SPD

50→50

EYE

52↗55

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$1.0M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$5M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$9M		$8M	-$1M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	63	55	7	2	0	2	4	30	4	0	2	.127	.238	.273	.511	.145	.217	48	6	.230	34	-5	-1	+0	+1	+2	-0.3
2022	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	235	202	31	4	0	5	29	89	2	18	2	.153	.266	.248	.514	.094	.236	38	12	.239	41	-16	+3	+0	+4	+7	-0.2
2023	20	A	2 teams	431	382	55	10	1	5	44	171	3	8	1	.144	.238	.215	.452	.071	.240	40	10	.214	22	-38	+1	+0	+8	+12	-1.7
2024	21	A+	Hickory Crawdads	321	287	45	10	1	2	32	108	1	16	0	.157	.244	.220	.463	.063	.242	34	10	.213	21	-29	+3	+0	+6	+9	-1.1
2025	22	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	289	265	43	8	0	3	21	118	1	7	2	.162	.226	.226	.453	.064	.276	41	7	.211	20	-26	+1	+0	+5	+8	-1.3
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	44	40	9	1	0	2	3	15	0	1	0	.225	.279	.400	.679	.175	.304	34	7	.272	66	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
ROS	23	MLB	TEX	276	249	44	8	1	4	24	101	1	6	1	.177	.252	.265	.517	.088	.279	37	9	.242	44	-18	+1	+0	+5	+8	-0.4
TOT	23	MLB	TEX	320	289	53	9	1	6	27	116	1	7	1	.183	.256	.284	.539	.100	.280	36	8	.246	47	-19	+1	+0	+6	+9	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB 11%	TEX	368	329	64	12	1	7	34	117	2	8	1	.195	.274	.301	.575	.106	.271	32	9	.259	56	-18	+1	+0	+7	+10	0.0
2028	25	MLB 26%	TEX	413	370	72	13	1	8	38	128	2	9	1	.195	.273	.300	.573	.105	.273	31	9	.267	62	-18	+1	+0	+7	+12	0.3
2029	26	MLB 44%	TEX	441	394	79	15	1	9	42	135	2	9	1	.201	.281	.312	.593	.112	.275	31	10	.272	66	-17	+1	+0	+8	+12	0.5
2030	27	MLB 59%	TEX	451	402	81	15	1	10	43	138	3	9	1	.201	.283	.318	.602	.117	.275	31	10	.273	67	-17	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.6
2031	28	MLB 69%	TEX	453	404	81	15	1	10	44	139	2	8	1	.200	.282	.317	.599	.116	.275	31	10	.272	66	-17	+1	-1	+8	+13	0.4
2032	29	MLB 77%	TEX	447	399	79	15	1	9	43	138	2	8	0	.198	.279	.308	.588	.110	.274	31	10	.270	65	-18	+2	-1	+8	+13	0.3
2033	30	MLB 85%	TEX	440	392	76	14	1	9	43	138	2	7	0	.194	.277	.304	.580	.110	.272	31	10	.267	62	-19	+1	-2	+8	+12	0.1
2034	31	MLB 91%	TEX	414	369	71	13	1	8	40	131	2	5	0	.192	.275	.298	.573	.106	.271	32	10	.263	59	-19	+1	-3	+7	+12	-0.2
2035	32	MLB	TEX	384	342	65	12	1	7	37	124	2	4	0	.190	.273	.292	.565	.102	.269	32	10	.258	56	-19	+1	-4	+7	+11	-0.4
2036	33	MLB	TEX	346	308	57	10	1	6	33	114	2	3	0	.185	.268	.282	.551	.097	.267	33	10	.253	52	-19	+1	-4	+6	+10	-0.7
2037	34	MLB	TEX	296	265	49	9	1	5	28	100	1	2	0	.185	.265	.283	.548	.098	.265	34	9	.247	47	-18	+0	-5	+5	+8	-0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6068	5414	999	185	14	109	579	2019	34	127	13	.185	.267	.284	.552	.100	.269	33	10	.253	52	-329	+20	-20	+108	+172	-4.9
/ 162G	—			650	580	107	20	1	12	62	216	4	14	1	.184	.268	.284	.552	.100	.268	33	10	.253	52	-35	+2	-2	+12	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	63	50	11	4	0	3	9	20	4	0	2	.220	.381	.480	.861	.260	.296	32	14	.384	152	+4	-1	—	—	+2	0.5
2022	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	235	184	37	6	0	5	47	63	2	18	2	.201	.369	.315	.684	.114	.271	27	20	.323	105	+1	+3	—	—	+7	1.1
2023	20	A	Down East Wood Ducks	394	326	62	12	2	6	63	112	3	8	1	.190	.327	.294	.621	.104	.267	28	16	.293	82	-8	+1	—	—	+11	0.4
2023	20	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	37	33	7	2	0	0	4	13	0	0	0	.212	.297	.273	.570	.061	.350	35	11	.267	63	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	21	A+	Hickory Crawdads	321	265	55	13	1	2	54	82	1	16	0	.208	.344	.287	.631	.079	.291	26	17	.300	87	-5	+3	—	—	+9	0.8
2025	22	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	289	251	52	10	0	4	35	87	1	7	2	.207	.307	.295	.601	.088	.298	30	12	.279	72	-9	+1	—	—	+8	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ian Moller (OGILVIE)	23	30	35	50	55	.175/.251/.258	.084	.277	4	7	37%	9%	40	-1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	37	39→40	49→50	44	.183/.260/.264	.081	.271	8	14	33%	9%	45	-2.1	.205/.286/.296	.091	.292	7	13	29%	9%	63	-0.8	.211/.301/.305	.094	.293	5	13	27%	10%	72	-0.1
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	36	43→50	49→40	40	.184/.244/.291	.107	.270	10	4	35%	7%	44	-2.1	.200/.256/.326	.126	.277	13	4	32%	6%	59	-1.1	.206/.268/.347	.141	.262	15	2	27%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	39	38→40	49→45	40	.187/.243/.265	.078	.259	5	8	29%	6%	37	-2.7	.205/.266/.297	.092	.292	8	10	31%	7%	55	-1.4	.195/.264/.279	.084	.281	10	12	32%	7%	48	-0.5
✕Corey Joyce 2022 · AA	23	41	39→45	53→50	39	.193/.262/.274	.080	.300	7	13	36%	7%	48	-1.9	.208/.307/.328	.120	.294	12	12	31%	10%	82	+0.5	.212/.315/.318	.105	.301	9	14	29%	10%	80	+0.2
✕Nick Quintana 2021 · A	23	39→40	39→45	49→45	37	.187/.241/.273	.085	.291	6	9	36%	6%	37	-2.6	.183/.266/.292	.109	.257	11	5	31%	9%	55	-1.4	.165/.258/.271	.106	.227	11	3	31%	10%	44	-1.1
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	36	40→45	52→50	36	.183/.218/.281	.098	.255	7	9	31%	4%	30	-3.1	.212/.258/.297	.085	.293	5	9	28%	6%	50	-1.7	.233/.289/.308	.075	.313	4	8	25%	7%	63	-0.4
✕Tyler Grimes 2013 · A	23	38	42→40	47→40	41	.187/.266/.294	.107	.282	9	8	35%	8%	55	-1.4	.206/.282/.301	.095	.307	7	5	33%	7%	63	-0.8	.207/.285/.293	.087	.311	6	2	32%	7%	60	-0.6
✕Juan Zabala 2022 · AA	23	40	43→40	46→50	37	.196/.253/.305	.109	.301	11	7	37%	6%	52	-1.6	.215/.278/.307	.092	.296	9	16	28%	7%	63	-0.9	.203/.265/.285	.083	.283	8	16	30%	7%	48	-0.8
✕Grayson Greiner 2016 · A	23	38	38→45	46→30	37	.185/.238/.260	.075	.283	6	3	35%	6%	33	-2.9	.212/.264/.314	.102	.298	9	3	30%	6%	58	-1.2	.218/.278/.331	.113	.293	11	0	28%	7%	66	-0.4
✕Mike Martin 2016 · A	23	41	35→30	52→55	42	.188/.277/.248	.060	.302	3	12	35%	8%	49	-1.8	.222/.280/.282	.060	.288	3	17	22%	6%	56	-1.3	.244/.292/.297	.053	.299	2	23	18%	5%	62	-0.3
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	37→29	42→45	48→50	42	.191/.254/.286	.095	.257	11	14	30%	7%	47	-1.9	.192/.267/.310	.118	.259	14	15	30%	8%	59	-1.1	.186/.266/.299	.113	.246	14	14	29%	9%	54	-0.9
✕Jason Lopez 2022 · AA	24	38	42→50	52→45	40	.189/.250/.291	.102	.286	10	11	36%	7%	46	-2.0	.204/.266/.313	.109	.307	11	9	35%	7%	59	-1.1	.164/.224/.258	.094	.235	10	0	33%	7%	25	-0.6
✕Johan Lopez 2023 · AA	23	39	44→45	51→55	40	.195/.268/.308	.113	.290	12	13	35%	7%	59	-1.1	.200/.270/.300	.100	.307	9	12	35%	8%	58	-1.2	.166/.253/.240	.073	.276	4	11	37%	10%	33	-0.6
✕Justin Twine 2019 · AA	23	42→30	39→40	48→50	32	.202/.241/.290	.087	.299	7	10	34%	3%	41	-2.3	.208/.247/.294	.086	.309	6	11	33%	4%	45	-2.1	.192/.230/.271	.079	.306	5	14	37%	3%	29	-1.7
✕Ethan Murray 2023 · AA	23	38→48	41→40	51→50	43	.188/.257/.286	.099	.271	8	13	32%	8%	49	-1.8	.198/.270/.294	.096	.294	7	12	32%	8%	56	-1.3	.194/.271/.287	.093	.286	7	13	32%	8%	52	-1.0
✕Ryan Dent 2012 · AA	23	39→42	40	46→50	38	.190/.242/.279	.089	.275	7	12	32%	6%	40	-2.4	.205/.258/.279	.074	.285	6	12	28%	6%	46	-2.0	.207/.258/.294	.088	.289	6	12	29%	5%	48	-1.0
✕Vicente Conde 2017 · AA	23	39→33	39→45	46→45	43	.190/.253/.278	.088	.271	6	8	31%	8%	44	-2.1	.174/.247/.259	.085	.257	6	6	32%	8%	38	-2.6	.103/.199/.174	.071	.165	6	2	39%	10%	-6	-1.7
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2006 · AA	23	38	37→45	45→40	41	.184/.246/.257	.073	.269	4	7	31%	7%	37	-2.7	.188/.241/.268	.080	.270	5	4	31%	5%	37	-2.7	.210/.275/.291	.081	.289	7	0	28%	7%	55	-0.6
✕Braulio Vasquez 2021 · A	22	40	39→40	44→65	37	.193/.250/.274	.080	.298	7	7	36%	6%	42	-2.3	.205/.278/.298	.093	.301	7	29	32%	7%	61	-1.0	.200/.277/.293	.093	.287	7	42	30%	7%	55	-0.6
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2021 · AA	23	38→43	36→40	50	45	.180/.255/.246	.066	.273	3	13	33%	9%	37	-2.6	.198/.277/.295	.097	.290	9	14	32%	10%	59	-1.1	.195/.282/.288	.093	.289	8	15	32%	10%	56	-0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)