Tanner Smith — OGILVIE

Tanner SmithC Augusta GreenJackets

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION283 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%44

BB%11

BABIP274

ISO137

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$9M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE47

scouting grade only

SPEED49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	22	20	3	1	0	2	2	8	0	1	0	150	227	500	727	350	100	36	9	311	97	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	22	21	2	1	0	1	1	12	0	1	0	95	136	286	422	190	80	55	5	175	5	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2025	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	22	21	2	1	0	1	1	12	0	1	0	95	136	286	422	190	125	55	5	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	—	22	20	3	1	0	2	2	8	0	1	0	150	227	500	727	350	100	36	9	311	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	22	21	2	1	0	1	1	12	0	1	0	95	136	286	422	190	80	55	5	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	22	21	2	1	0	1	1	12	0	1	0	95	136	286	422	190	80	55	5	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A MLE	ATL	—	283	262	39	7	1	9	18	151	2	2	1	149	209	286	495	137	291	53	6	211	29	-24	+0	+0	+5	+6	-1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A RAW	ATL	—	243	218	51	10	1	11	22	84	2	2	1	234	310	440	750	206	323	35	9	331	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ RAW	ATL	—	40	34	4	1	0	2	6	24	0	0	0	118	250	324	574	206	250	60	15	263	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A MLE	ATL	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		274	44	11	249	55	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	A MLE	ATL	—	292	270	40	7	1	9	19	155	2	2	1	148	210	281	491	133	290	53	7	212	30	-24	+0	+0	+5	+6	-1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ATL	30%	266	244	45	8	1	8	18	102	2	4	1	184	246	324	570	139	276	38	7	258	61	-12	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	ATL	44%	338	309	59	11	1	10	23	125	3	5	2	191	254	330	584	139	278	37	7	265	65	-14	+0	+0	+6	+7	-0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	ATL	51%	385	352	68	12	2	12	27	140	3	7	2	193	257	341	597	148	278	36	7	269	68	-15	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	ATL	52%	404	369	72	13	2	13	29	146	3	7	2	195	259	347	606	152	279	36	7	271	69	-15	+1	+0	+7	+9	0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	ATL	53%	413	376	73	13	2	13	30	150	4	7	2	194	261	343	604	149	278	36	7	270	69	-15	+1	-1	+7	+9	0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	ATL	53%	412	376	73	13	2	13	30	150	3	7	2	194	259	343	602	149	277	36	7	268	67	-16	+1	-1	+7	+9	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	ATL	56%	409	373	71	13	2	12	30	150	3	7	2	190	256	332	589	142	275	37	7	265	65	-17	+1	-2	+7	+9	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	ATL	30%	80	74	12	2	0	2	5	31	1	1	0	162	225	270	495	108	276	39	6	252	61	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	ATL	44%	149	137	27	5	1	5	10	55	1	2	1	197	257	358	614	161	278	37	7	259	65	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	ATL	51%	195	177	34	6	1	6	14	71	2	3	1	192	259	339	598	147	278	36	7	263	68	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	ATL	52%	212	193	38	7	1	7	15	76	2	4	1	197	262	352	614	155	279	36	7	264	69	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	ATL	53%	220	200	39	7	1	7	16	80	2	4	1	195	261	345	606	150	278	36	7	263	69	-8	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	ATL	53%	216	196	39	7	1	7	16	79	2	4	1	199	266	352	618	153	277	37	7	261	67	-8	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	ATL	56%	231	210	40	7	1	7	17	85	2	4	1	190	258	333	591	143	275	37	7	259	65	-10	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1303	1187	229	41	6	41	93	477	12	22	6	193	259	341	600	148	279	37	7	261	66	-51	+2	-2	+23	+28	0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	113	20	3	20	46	238	6	11	3	191	256	336	592	145	276	37	7	261	66	-25	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	2658	2428	464	84	12	82	189	979	21	45	13	191	255	337	592	146	277	37	7	266	66	-104	+4	-4	+47	+57	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	114	21	3	20	46	239	5	11	3	192	256	338	594	146	278	37	7	266	66	-26	+1	-1	+12	+14	-0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	4.5	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.2	10.8
/162	664	12	3	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.1	1,399	43	24	195	257	341	+25	+16	1.1	1.1
/162	664	20	11	+11.9	+7.6	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tanner Smith (OGILVIE)	23	20→25	50→55	44→49	47	178/238/313	136	274	3	1	40%	7%	55	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	188/254/321	133	272	15	10	35%	6%	62	-1.4	207/272/348	141	302	15	9	35%	6%	75	-0.5	202/267/346	145	293	16	7	35%	6%	71	-0.3
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2016 · A	23	40→37	49→50	53→50	39	207/268/353	146	287	16	9	33%	6%	74	-0.5	208/273/341	133	295	14	10	33%	6%	74	-0.6	202/274/346	144	284	16	9	33%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Chris Williams 2021 · A	24	36→32	50→55	49→40	48	188/277/339	151	269	18	5	35%	10%	75	-0.5	188/268/335	147	296	18	4	39%	9%	71	-0.8	176/260/345	169	249	23	4	38%	9%	68	-0.7
✕Colton Shaver 2019 · A	23	36→32	50	43→30	42	194/265/340	146	254	18	4	31%	7%	71	-0.8	190/269/339	149	282	18	3	37%	8%	72	-0.7	163/256/314	151	249	20	0	41%	9%	58	-1.0
✕Tyler Kolodny 2011 · A	23	40→36	49→45	51→50	40	206/276/359	153	273	16	9	30%	6%	79	-0.2	209/284/321	112	285	10	10	29%	6%	74	-0.6	205/292/288	83	272	7	10	25%	6%	66	-0.5
✕Freuddy Batista 2022 · A	22	38	51→50	46→40	41	204/266/362	158	277	19	7	33%	7%	76	-0.4	205/266/337	132	302	13	6	35%	6%	70	-0.8	206/257/336	130	270	16	4	30%	4%	63	-0.6
✕Mason Katz 2015 · A	24	37→33	50	48→45	43	199/262/347	148	249	18	5	28%	7%	71	-0.8	207/277/322	115	295	11	8	31%	8%	70	-0.8	188/271/269	82	294	6	6	35%	9%	54	-1.1
✕Miguel Jerez 2021 · A	23	34	47→60	48→40	37	178/247/307	130	278	16	5	40%	7%	57	-1.8	187/257/312	125	309	14	5	41%	7%	61	-1.5	123/205/254	130	193	16	0	44%	7%	28	-1.3
✕Rodolfo Durán 2021 · A	23	39	47→50	47→45	36	206/242/334	128	274	16	4	31%	4%	59	-1.6	200/240/330	130	259	14	4	28%	5%	58	-1.7	225/268/375	150	277	17	3	25%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Damiano Palmegiani 2023 · A	23	37→39	54→50	50→40	43	203/278/377	174	253	23	5	30%	7%	84	+0.2	193/272/337	144	269	17	5	33%	8%	73	-0.6	176/262/306	130	252	15	3	34%	8%	60	-1.1
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2018 · A	23	39	47→50	42→40	42	204/265/335	132	265	15	4	29%	7%	69	-0.9	214/269/319	105	302	10	5	31%	6%	66	-1.1	199/250/262	63	298	6	0	34%	6%	42	-0.9
✕Sean Coyle 2014 · A	22	36	49→50	54→50	37	192/251/336	144	277	17	14	36%	6%	64	-1.3	200/259/334	134	299	16	13	36%	7%	67	-1.1	181/245/299	117	275	13	12	37%	7%	50	-1.3
✕Cody Puckett 2010 · A	23	39→40	46→50	51→50	38	199/250/328	129	280	15	11	34%	6%	61	-1.5	202/254/342	140	275	15	11	31%	5%	66	-1.1	193/247/331	138	257	15	11	30%	5%	60	-1.3
✕Aramis Garcia 2016 · A	23	42→41	46→50	45	42	213/271/338	125	281	15	3	30%	7%	72	-0.7	215/261/345	130	289	15	3	30%	5%	70	-0.9	213/254/350	137	283	17	0	31%	4%	65	-0.7
✕Jake Rogers 2018 · A	23	41→40	44→55	47→45	42	204/268/326	123	280	11	10	30%	7%	68	-1.0	194/266/335	141	268	16	7	32%	8%	70	-0.9	216/279/422	206	274	28	2	32%	7%	93	+0.4
✕Jesús Bastidas 2023 · AA	24	40→41	49→50	45→50	41	209/278/348	139	281	17	12	31%	6%	77	-0.3	204/273/341	137	269	16	12	30%	6%	74	-0.5	191/260/329	138	251	16	13	30%	5%	64	-1.0
✕Lucas May 2008 · A	23	39→43	50→55	45	37	209/251/362	154	265	19	6	29%	4%	70	-0.9	215/266/354	139	282	15	6	28%	6%	74	-0.6	214/273/345	131	281	14	4	28%	6%	72	-0.4
✕Andy Yerzy 2022 · AA	24	32	50	49→40	42	178/266/324	146	258	19	7	38%	8%	68	-1.0	196/274/331	135	264	16	6	30%	9%	72	-0.7	161/235/266	105	230	13	1	34%	8%	40	-1.1
✕Johan Mieses 2017 · A	22	36→33	52→55	44→50	35	198/245/367	169	270	20	8	35%	5%	69	-0.9	184/234/333	149	254	20	4	35%	5%	57	-1.8	191/265/355	164	235	23	7	30%	7%	72	-0.4
✕Joe DeCarlo 2017 · A	23	38	45→50	47→30	44	190/278/314	124	278	13	2	34%	9%	70	-0.8	197/273/328	131	280	15	3	33%	8%	71	-0.8	180/256/302	122	254	15	0	34%	7%	56	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps