Tanner Smith — OGILVIE

Tanner SmithC Augusta GreenJackets

Age 23 R/R 6'0" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION204 act + 136 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .244 / .333

PA136

HR4

K%39

BB%6

BABIP286

ISO143

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 59

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER59

scouting grade only

EYE44

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	22	21	2	1	0	1	1	12	0	1	0	95	136	286	422	190	125	55	5	156	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	22	20	3	1	0	2	2	8	0	1	0	150	227	500	727	350	100	36	9	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A	ATL	—	204	192	35	6	1	8	10	102	2	1	1	182	230	349	579	167	329	50	5	242	43	-13	-0	+0	+4	+6	-0.4
YTD	23	A	ATL	—	204	186	48	9	1	11	16	72	2	1	1	258	324	495	818	237	359	35	8	358	132	+7	-0	+0	+4	+6	1.7
ROS	23	A	ATL	0%	136	126	24	4	1	4	8	53	1	2	1	190	244	333	578	143	283	39	6	260	57	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
ROS	23	MLB	ATL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		283	—	—	253	52	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	23	A	ATL	—	204	193	35	6	1	8	10	102	2	1	1	181	230	347	578	166	325	50	5	242	43	-13	-0	+0	+4	+6	-0.4
TOT	23	A	ATL	—	340	318	59	10	2	12	18	155	3	3	2	186	236	343	579	157	309	46	5	249	49	-20	-0	+0	+6	+10	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	ATL	30%	280	259	51	9	1	9	17	104	2	4	1	197	252	344	595	147	283	37	6	267	62	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2028	25	MLB	ATL	44%	348	320	65	11	2	12	22	125	3	6	2	203	261	362	623	159	284	36	6	273	67	-13	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.4
2029	26	MLB	ATL	51%	391	359	73	13	2	13	25	138	4	7	2	203	263	359	622	156	285	35	6	277	70	-13	+1	+0	+7	+11	0.6
2030	27	MLB	ATL	52%	408	374	76	13	2	14	27	143	4	7	2	203	264	361	625	158	285	35	7	278	71	-13	+1	+0	+7	+12	0.6
2031	28	MLB	ATL	53%	416	381	78	14	2	14	28	146	4	7	2	205	266	362	629	157	284	35	7	277	70	-14	+1	-1	+7	+12	0.5
2027	24	MLB	ATL	30%	84	78	15	3	0	3	5	31	1	1	0	192	250	346	596	154	283	37	6	260	57	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	25	MLB	ATL	44%	154	142	29	5	1	5	10	55	1	2	1	204	261	359	621	155	284	36	6	267	62	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2029	26	MLB	ATL	51%	198	181	38	7	1	7	13	70	2	3	1	210	270	376	646	166	285	35	7	270	65	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2030	27	MLB	ATL	52%	214	196	40	7	1	7	14	75	2	4	1	204	264	357	621	153	285	35	7	272	66	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2031	28	MLB	ATL	53%	222	203	41	7	1	7	15	78	2	4	1	202	264	350	613	148	284	35	7	271	65	-9	+0	-0	+4	+6	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	872	801	163	29	4	29	57	309	8	14	4	203	264	358	622	155	287	35	7	269	64	-35	+1	-0	+16	+25	0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	122	22	3	22	42	230	6	10	3	204	264	362	625	157	287	35	6	269	64	-26	+1	-0	+12	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	2001	1840	369	65	10	67	128	721	18	34	10	201	259	356	615	155	284	36	6	273	67	-75	+3	-1	+36	+57	2.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	598	120	21	3	22	42	234	6	11	3	201	260	356	617	156	284	36	6	273	67	-24	+1	-0	+12	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	22	20	3	1	0	2	2	8	0	1	0	150	227	500	727	350	100	36	9	311	96	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	972	32	16	203	259	358	+17	+12	1.0	1.0
	/162	664	22	11	203	259	358	+11.9	+8.2	0.7	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tanner Smith (OGILVIE)	23	20→25	54→59	43→48	44	186/236/343	157	309	12	3	46%	5%	49	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	189/255/325	136	272	15	10	35%	6%	59	-1.1	206/270/351	145	304	16	9	36%	6%	72	-0.2	198/264/347	149	294	17	7	37%	6%	65	-0.2
✕Miguel Jerez 2021 · A	23	33	47→60	48→40	37	177/245/308	131	274	16	5	40%	7%	50	-1.7	188/257/316	128	307	14	5	41%	7%	57	-1.2	125/206/261	136	192	17	0	44%	7%	20	-1.2
✕Rodolfo Durán 2021 · A	23	39	47→55	47→40	36	204/241/332	128	275	16	4	32%	4%	53	-1.5	201/241/337	136	264	15	4	29%	5%	54	-1.4	225/266/386	161	276	19	3	26%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2016 · A	23	40→38	48→55	53→50	39	206/266/349	143	284	16	9	32%	6%	69	-0.4	214/278/357	143	300	16	10	33%	6%	76	+0.1	212/284/375	163	291	20	9	33%	7%	83	+0.3
✕Chris Williams 2021 · A	24	36→30	49→60	49→40	48	187/277/335	148	272	17	5	36%	11%	71	-0.3	188/268/347	159	301	20	4	41%	9%	70	-0.3	179/261/368	189	250	28	4	40%	9%	71	-0.2
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2017 · A	22	34	47→50	44→40	39	181/246/309	128	264	15	5	36%	7%	50	-1.7	207/262/323	116	285	12	4	30%	6%	60	-1.0	206/261/314	108	276	12	2	29%	6%	55	-0.6
✕Joe DeCarlo 2017 · A	23	37	46→55	47→30	44	188/274/317	128	274	14	2	35%	9%	65	-0.7	199/274/344	145	282	17	3	34%	7%	72	-0.2	184/260/325	141	260	18	0	35%	7%	58	-0.5
✕Johan Mieses 2017 · A	22	35→33	53→55	44→50	35	195/242/365	170	267	21	8	36%	5%	63	-0.8	181/230/331	150	256	20	4	37%	5%	50	-1.8	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Mason Katz 2015 · A	24	37→33	51→55	49→45	44	201/265/358	157	247	19	5	27%	7%	72	-0.2	205/278/321	116	293	12	8	32%	8%	67	-0.5	177/269/253	76	282	6	6	36%	10%	43	-1.1
✕Colton Shaver 2019 · A	23	37→32	50	43→30	42	197/269/344	147	261	19	4	32%	7%	69	-0.4	188/268/343	155	285	19	3	39%	8%	69	-0.4	160/253/321	161	248	22	0	43%	9%	54	-0.9
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	40	44→55	46→45	37	202/247/323	121	282	12	7	32%	5%	53	-1.5	194/256/297	103	298	10	10	36%	7%	50	-1.7	163/228/254	91	247	10	10	36%	8%	25	-0.9
✕Sean Coyle 2014 · A	22	35→34	49→50	54→50	36	188/246/332	144	269	17	14	36%	6%	56	-1.3	199/257/342	143	302	18	13	38%	6%	63	-0.8	180/243/309	129	278	16	12	39%	7%	46	-1.1
✕Rodolfo Castro 2021 · A	22	37→40	47→55	46→50	35	194/234/331	137	275	15	6	35%	5%	50	-1.7	211/266/374	163	279	20	8	31%	6%	76	+0.0	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Tyler Kolodny 2011 · A	23	40→36	50→45	51→50	40	209/279/369	160	275	18	9	30%	6%	80	+0.4	213/288/327	114	289	10	10	28%	6%	73	-0.1	210/300/295	85	278	6	10	24%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Cody Puckett 2010 · A	23	39	46→50	51→50	38	199/250/328	129	280	15	11	34%	6%	56	-1.3	200/251/341	141	277	15	11	32%	5%	61	-1.0	192/239/333	141	232	19	10	27%	5%	51	-1.1
✕Sean Roby 2022 · A	24	37→32	49→55	49→30	41	194/264/339	145	283	17	5	37%	8%	66	-0.6	187/243/353	166	301	24	3	44%	6%	61	-1.0	165/216/332	167	257	27	1	47%	5%	41	-1.0
✕Kevin Padlo 2019 · A	23	35→40	45→55	45→50	43	180/260/303	123	268	12	7	36%	9%	55	-1.4	206/284/377	171	294	20	9	35%	9%	85	+0.7	195/265/371	176	262	22	12	34%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Lucas May 2008 · A	23	39→43	50→55	45	37	209/251/362	154	265	19	6	29%	4%	66	-0.6	215/265/359	144	285	16	6	30%	5%	71	-0.3	213/266/351	138	284	15	5	30%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Jiandido Tromp 2017 · A	23	39→45	51→55	50→45	37	208/250/372	164	270	18	9	30%	5%	68	-0.5	215/259/340	125	293	12	8	30%	5%	63	-0.8	210/255/318	107	290	10	8	30%	5%	52	-1.1
✕Freuddy Batista 2023 · A	23	40	51→50	49→40	38	205/276/364	159	296	19	8	36%	6%	78	+0.2	209/263/343	134	299	14	4	34%	5%	66	-0.6	205/257/341	135	285	15	1	32%	5%	59	-0.6