Tanner Smith

C Augusta GreenJackets

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	AATL	22	.150/.227/.500	2	1	2	—	.095/.136/.286
2026	23	A+/AATL	283	.218/.301/.425	13	2	28	—	.141/.206/.268
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBATL	333	.187/.248/.312	8	5	56	-0.1
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBATL	51	.191/.252/.318	1	1	60	-0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBATL	101	.193/.256/.323	3	2	62	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$0.4M2033Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

BB%78

ISO75

Chase%29

Z-Con%16

wRC+13

Speed13

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsKamren James (age 24) · Collin Price (age 24) · Kendall Simmons (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 143 proj PA

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .246 / .309

PA143

HR3

K%34

BB%7

ISO125

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 48

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER48

scouting grade only

EYE43

scouting grade only

SPEED44

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	22	20	3	1	0	2	2	8	0	1	0	150	227	500	727	350	100	36	9	311	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Rome Emperors	—	40	34	4	1	0	2	6	24	0	0	0	118	250	324	574	206	250	60	15	263	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	243	218	51	10	1	11	22	84	2	2	1	234	310	440	750	206	323	35	9	331	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	22	21	2	1	0	1	1	11	0	1	0	95	136	286	422	190	78	50	5	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	—	40	36	1	0	0	1	4	31	0	0	0	28	125	111	236	83	197	78	10	126	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	243	225	36	7	1	7	15	114	2	2	1	160	219	293	512	133	270	47	6	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	22	21	2	1	0	1	1	11	0	1	0	95	136	286	422	190	111	50	5	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	—	22	20	3	1	0	2	2	8	0	1	0	150	227	500	727	350	100	36	9	311	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	283	262	38	7	1	8	18	146	2	2	1	145	206	271	477	126	275	52	6	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	283	252	55	11	1	13	28	108	2	2	1	218	301	425	726	206	318	38	10	321	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	22	21	2	1	0	1	1	11	0	1	0	95	136	286	422	190	78	50	5	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	283	261	38	7	1	8	18	146	2	2	1	146	206	272	478	126	260	52	6	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	22	21	2	1	0	1	1	11	0	1	0	95	136	286	422	190	78	50	5	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	283	261	38	7	1	8	18	146	2	2	1	146	206	272	478	126	260	52	6	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ATL	0%	333	305	57	10	2	8	22	112	3	5	1	187	248	312	560	125	261	34	7	252	56	-17	+1	+0	+6	+7	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ATL	30%	169	155	29	5	1	4	11	56	1	3	1	191	252	318	571	128	263	33	7	256	60	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	ATL	44%	228	208	40	7	1	6	16	74	2	3	1	193	256	323	579	130	264	32	7	260	62	-10	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	ATL	49%	262	240	46	8	1	7	18	84	2	4	1	195	258	325	582	130	265	32	7	261	63	-12	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	ATL	51%	285	261	50	9	1	7	20	91	2	4	1	196	259	324	583	129	265	32	7	262	63	-12	+0	-1	+5	+6	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	ATL	51%	291	266	51	9	1	7	21	92	2	4	1	196	259	322	581	127	265	32	7	261	63	-13	+0	-1	+5	+6	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	ATL	30%	51	48	9	2	0	1	3	17	0	1	0	191	252	318	571	128	263	33	6	256	60	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	ATL	44%	101	92	19	3	1	3	7	33	1	2	0	193	256	323	579	130	264	33	7	260	62	-5	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	ATL	49%	128	117	23	4	1	3	9	41	1	2	1	195	258	325	582	130	265	32	7	261	63	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	ATL	51%	147	135	27	5	1	4	10	47	1	2	1	196	259	324	583	129	265	32	7	262	63	-6	+0	-0	+3	+3	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	ATL	51%	150	137	28	5	1	4	11	47	1	2	1	196	259	322	581	127	265	31	7	261	63	-7	+0	-1	+3	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	577	529	106	19	4	15	40	185	4	9	3	200	262	336	598	136	273	32	7	261	55	-26	+1	-1	+10	+13	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	120	21	5	17	45	208	5	10	3	201	264	339	602	138	274	32	7	261	55	-29	+1	-1	+12	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	1683	1545	280	50	7	43	114	602	12	23	7	181	243	306	549	125	261	36	7	250	55	-63	+2	-2	+25	+30	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	109	19	3	17	44	233	5	9	3	183	245	310	555	127	263	36	7	250	55	-30	+1	-1	+12	+14	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAugusta GreenJackets · 243 PAwOBA .323 → .223 (−100)K% 34.6% → 47.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.57%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	47.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.05%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.980	6.12%
HBP% /PA	0.82%	—	×0.780	—	×0.980	0.63%
Singles /BIP	21.64%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.972	×0.980	18.96%
Doubles /BIP	7.46%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.972	×0.980	5.90%
Triples /BIP	0.75%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.972	×0.980	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	8.21%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.980	6.44%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .323 → .223; ISO .206 → .137; BABIP .323 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Rome Emperors · 40 PAwOBA .257 → .126 (−130)K% 60.0% → 78.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	60.00%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	78.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.988	8.89%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.870	—	×0.988	8.60%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.988	7.71%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.988	17.39%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .257 → .126; ISO .206 → .088; BABIP .250 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAugusta GreenJackets · 22 PAwOBA .301 → .171 (−130)K% 36.4% → 50.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.36%	÷0.984	×1.360	—	—	50.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷0.985	×0.690	—	×0.990	6.30%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	0.00%
Singles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.030	×0.920	—	×0.990	0.00%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.977	×0.830	—	×0.990	7.01%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.037	×0.910	—	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	16.67%	÷1.281	×0.800	—	×0.990	10.31%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 107, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .301 → .171; ISO .350 → .181; BABIP .100 → .078. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	4.5	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.2	10.8
/162	664	12	3	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#4Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	8	2	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.1	719	18	10	194	254	322	+13	+12	0.0	0.1
/162	664	17	9	+11.9	+11.1	0.0	pk7: 0
#5John Boccabella'63-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	26	3	217*	267*	343*	+8	+6	-1.3	-0.1
/162	664	11	1	+3.5	+2.7	-0.5	pk7: 1
#6Mike Ryan'64-'74 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,098 PA	3.2	2,098	28	4	196*	257*	311*	+38	+0	-1.9	-0.9
/162	664	9	1	+11.9	+0.0	-0.6	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tanner Smith (OGILVIE)	24	20	48	44	43	186/246/309	124	261	3	2	34%	7%	56	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kamren James 2024 · A	24	36→30	44→50	45	34	183/242/295	112	285	12	8	39%	5%	51	-2.2	183/241/281	98	279	11	8	37%	5%	47	-2.5	164/223/254	90	241	11	7	35%	5%	32	-1.1
✕Collin Price 2024 · A	24	37→36	43→50	43→45	44	186/262/299	114	266	11	4	33%	9%	60	-1.6	190/264/324	134	268	16	7	33%	8%	67	-1.1	176/256/317	141	243	18	8	34%	8%	60	-1.1
✕Kendall Simmons 2024 · A	24	38	49→50	48→50	39	200/266/350	150	279	17	9	34%	6%	73	-0.6	209/268/339	130	307	14	8	35%	6%	71	-0.8	195/253/316	121	290	13	7	36%	5%	57	-0.6
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→30	45	50	37	195/253/316	121	280	13	12	34%	6%	60	-1.6	211/268/301	90	312	8	17	33%	6%	61	-1.5	216/273/285	69	324	7	24	33%	6%	57	-1.2
✕Mason Katz 2015 · A	24	37→32	49→50	48→45	43	197/260/343	146	247	18	5	28%	7%	69	-0.9	205/273/318	113	292	11	8	31%	8%	68	-1.0	184/265/264	80	287	6	6	35%	8%	51	-1.2
✕Jimmy Glowenke 2023 · A	24	38	46→45	43→45	38	191/260/319	128	284	14	3	36%	6%	64	-1.3	204/280/315	111	273	11	6	28%	7%	70	-0.8	198/280/300	102	256	10	6	25%	7%	65	-0.8
✕Nick Quintana 2022 · A	24	32→40	43→45	47→45	44	169/250/274	105	239	11	6	33%	8%	50	-2.3	190/273/295	105	264	10	5	30%	9%	63	-1.3	177/267/274	97	242	10	3	29%	10%	54	-1.0
✕Jarek Cunningham 2014 · AA	24	36→39	47→50	47→45	36	190/241/324	134	260	15	8	33%	5%	57	-1.8	201/255/332	131	279	13	7	32%	6%	64	-1.3	195/252/325	130	269	12	4	31%	6%	60	-0.9
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	38→30	42→45	48→50	41	192/253/286	94	259	11	15	30%	6%	53	-2.1	198/271/310	112	262	13	14	28%	8%	66	-1.1	186/264/278	92	250	9	8	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Joseph Odom 2016 · A	24	37	44→45	42→30	41	190/246/305	115	260	12	4	31%	7%	55	-2.0	219/258/326	107	295	10	3	28%	5%	63	-1.4	186/243/289	103	304	11	2	40%	6%	47	-1.0
✕Chris Williams 2021 · A	24	35→31	49→55	49→40	47	187/275/336	149	266	17	5	35%	10%	74	-0.6	187/267/334	147	293	18	4	39%	9%	70	-0.8	175/259/344	169	246	24	4	38%	9%	68	-0.7
✕Joe Donovan 2023 · A	24	34	43→45	51→40	36	174/246/284	110	279	11	7	40%	6%	51	-2.3	198/254/306	108	309	9	5	37%	5%	58	-1.7	198/252/314	115	294	9	0	34%	4%	55	-0.7
✕Connor Kaiser 2021 · A	24	38	42→45	46→50	46	189/265/291	102	263	10	6	30%	8%	59	-1.7	193/262/310	117	276	12	11	32%	8%	62	-1.4	179/257/294	115	257	12	17	33%	9%	54	-0.8
✕Jonathon Fixler 2010 · AA	24	37	49→55	43→40	39	199/256/343	144	255	17	4	29%	5%	68	-1.0	212/273/346	134	290	14	6	31%	6%	74	-0.5	194/264/334	141	276	15	2	34%	7%	67	-0.3
✕Tate Blackman 2019 · A	24	37→34	44→45	43→40	40	187/258/300	112	284	13	5	37%	7%	59	-1.7	178/247/266	88	317	9	5	43%	7%	47	-2.6	126/203/175	49	253	5	1	48%	7%	10	-2.9
✕Mateo Gil 2024 · AA	24	37→33	44→45	45	38	192/239/311	120	269	12	6	33%	6%	53	-2.1	190/231/300	110	273	11	6	33%	5%	47	-2.5	156/185/252	96	223	10	3	35%	3%	16	-2.5
✕Will Wilson 2022 · AA	24	37→39	47→50	51→45	39	190/256/321	131	285	15	8	37%	7%	63	-1.4	204/263/327	123	281	15	6	32%	7%	66	-1.1	199/258/304	105	260	13	4	28%	7%	56	-1.3
✕Colton Shaver 2019 · A	23	36→32	49→50	43→30	42	192/262/338	145	252	18	4	31%	7%	70	-0.9	189/269/339	150	280	18	3	37%	8%	72	-0.7	163/256/315	152	248	20	0	41%	9%	59	-1.0
✕Will Banfield 2024 · AA	24	37	48→50	48→30	35	198/234/334	136	260	16	4	31%	4%	57	-1.8	204/243/313	109	283	12	3	31%	4%	55	-2.0	195/235/287	92	273	10	0	31%	4%	44	-1.5
✕Taylor Snyder 2019 · A	24	38→33	43→50	46→50	34	191/235/306	115	287	11	11	36%	4%	51	-2.3	195/243/333	138	293	16	12	38%	5%	60	-1.6	165/221/310	144	234	19	14	38%	6%	44	-1.4

Tanner Smith

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps