Will Koger

P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	ASD	2	3	5.40	2.20	23.1%	7.7%	—	K 23.1% · BB 7.7% · FIP 2.13
2026	23	MIX2 levels	41	51	5.65	4.88	25.2%	16.8%	—	K 19.0% · BB 19.5% · FIP 6.01
2027PROJ	24	MLBSD	34	36	5.77	5.77	20.0%	17.8%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSD	19	20	5.47	5.37	20.9%	15.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSD	30	31	5.32	5.27	21.2%	14.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRyan Sublette (age 24) · Zane Russell (age 24) · Hudson Leach (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 126

ERA5.77

FIP5.77

K%20.0%

BB%17.8%

K-BB%2.2%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	2	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.7	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	0.0%	5.40	2.13	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	2	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.7	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	0.0%	5.40	2.13	—
2025	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	2	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.7	23.1%	7.7%	15.4%	0.0%	5.40	2.20	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	51	238	60	40	7	0%	1.2	19.0%	19.5%	-0.5%	3.7%	5.65	6.01	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	51	238	60	40	7	0%	1.2	19.0%	19.5%	-0.5%	3.7%	5.65	6.01	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	51	238	60	40	7	0%	1.2	25.2%	16.8%	8.4%	2.9%	5.65	4.88	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SD	34	0	36	152	30	27	5	0%	1.1	20.0%	17.8%	2.2%	3.2%	5.77	5.77	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	44	0	46	196	41	30	6	0%	1.1	20.9%	15.3%	5.6%	3.1%	5.47	5.37	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	44	0	46	196	42	29	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	14.8%	6.5%	3.1%	5.32	5.27	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	19	0	20	84	18	13	3	0%	1.1	20.9%	15.3%	5.6%	3.1%	5.47	5.37	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	30	0	31	131	28	19	4	0%	1.0	21.2%	14.8%	6.5%	3.1%	5.32	5.27	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	0	51	215	45	32	7	0%	1.1	21.1%	15.0%	6.1%	3.1%	5.38	4.93	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	126	28	0%	1.1	21.1%	15.0%	6.1%	3.1%	5.38	4.93	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		43	0	54	251	48	47	9	0%	1.3	19.2%	18.9%	0.3%	3.5%	5.63	5.81	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	0	200	924	177	175	33	0%	1.3	19.2%	18.9%	0.3%	3.5%	5.63	5.81	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Koger (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.77	20.0%	17.8%	3.2%	—	5.32	21.1%	6.0%	93	-0.45	—	—	—
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	90
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	90
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	89
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	89
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	88
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	86
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	85
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	85
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	85
Michael Blazek R 2013 · 5.52 FIP	24	SU	5.52	16.7%	15.5%	3.4%	.241	3.81	19.8%	10.3%	97	-1.71	2.99	238	85
Connor Cooke R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	24	SU	5.02	17.4%	17.0%	2.2%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	103	84
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	84
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	84
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	84
Bryce McGowan R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	24	SU	5.11	19.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.304	3.71	18.8%	6.7%	55	-1.40	3.71	178	84
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	84
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	84
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	84
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	84
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	43	20.8%	15.8%	1.21	5.50
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*