Kyle Ayers — OGILVIE

Kyle Ayers P Hillsboro Hops

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%20.1%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	3	31	126	31	11	0	17%	1.7	15.6%	10.5%	5.1%	0.0%	2.93	3.11	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	3	31	126	31	11	0	17%	1.7	15.6%	10.5%	5.1%	0.0%	2.93	3.11	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	3	31	126	31	11	0	17%	1.7	24.6%	8.7%	15.9%	0.0%	2.93	2.15	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	23	10	102	440	78	25	16	43%	4.4	13.7%	6.5%	7.1%	4.5%	5.47	5.27	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	23	10	102	440	78	25	16	43%	4.4	13.7%	6.5%	7.1%	4.5%	5.47	5.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	ARI	23	10	102	440	78	25	16	43%	4.4	17.7%	5.7%	12.0%	3.6%	5.47	4.32	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ARI	98	0	102	432	91	40	12	0%	1.0	21.0%	9.3%	11.6%	2.8%	4.50	4.45	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	99	0	104	438	94	39	12	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.0%	12.5%	2.8%	4.41	4.36	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	99	0	104	438	95	39	12	0%	1.0	21.7%	8.9%	12.8%	2.8%	4.36	4.33	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	97	0	102	431	93	38	12	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.9%	12.8%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	94	0	99	418	90	38	13	0%	1.1	21.6%	9.1%	12.5%	3.0%	4.42	4.45	+0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	90	0	94	399	85	37	13	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	3.1%	4.52	4.58	-0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	85	0	89	375	79	36	13	0%	1.0	21.0%	9.6%	11.4%	3.3%	4.67	4.76	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	ARI	42	0	44	186	39	17	5	0%	1.0	21.0%	9.3%	11.6%	2.8%	4.50	4.45	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	66	0	69	291	62	26	8	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.0%	12.5%	2.8%	4.41	4.36	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	78	0	82	346	75	31	10	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.9%	12.8%	2.8%	4.36	4.33	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	83	0	87	367	80	33	11	0%	1.0	21.7%	8.9%	12.8%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	84	0	88	372	80	34	11	0%	1.0	21.6%	9.1%	12.5%	3.0%	4.42	4.45	+0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	82	0	86	363	77	34	11	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	3.1%	4.52	4.58	-0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	78	0	82	346	73	33	12	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.6%	11.4%	3.3%	4.67	4.76	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		512	0	538	2272	486	208	68	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.46	4.10	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	77	25	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.1%	12.3%	3.0%	4.46	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		41	13	133	566	80	42	20	32%	3.2	14.1%	7.4%	6.7%	3.5%	4.88	4.79	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	20	200	853	120	63	30	32%	3.2	14.1%	7.4%	6.7%	3.5%	4.88	4.79	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Ayers (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	20.1%	10.0%	2.9%	—	4.38	21.4%	12.3%	310	-0.24	—	—	—
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	82
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	81
Yunior Montero R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	23	SW	3.65	21.9%	11.9%	1.6%	.239	5.21	21.3%	3.7%	54	+1.56	3.65	127	79
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	79
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	79
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	79
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	78
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	78
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	78
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	78
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	77
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	77
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	77
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	77
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	77
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	77
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	76
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	76
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	75
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	88	21.4%	9.2%	1.15	4.46
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24