Anson Aroz — OGILVIE

Anson ArozC Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 23 S/R 5'11" / 195 lbs A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION128 act + 192 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .305 / .337

PA192

HR4

K%32

BB%9

BABIP314

ISO118

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$5M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.9M
2035	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$5M		$22M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A	LAD	—	128	107	25	4	0	3	15	44	4	2	2	234	349	355	704	121	355	34	12	305	91	-1	-0	+0	+2	+4	0.4
YTD	23	A	LAD	—	128	101	28	5	0	3	21	33	4	2	2	277	421	416	836	139	373	26	16	378	147	+7	-0	+0	+2	+4	1.3
ROS	23	A	LAD	0%	192	169	37	6	1	4	18	61	3	2	1	219	305	337	643	118	304	32	9	285	77	-5	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.4
ROS	23	MLB	LAD	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		300	—	—	269	64	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	23	A	LAD	—	128	108	25	4	0	3	15	44	4	2	2	231	349	352	701	120	349	34	12	305	91	-1	-0	+0	+2	+4	0.4
TOT	23	A	LAD	—	320	276	62	10	1	7	33	105	7	4	3	225	323	344	667	120	329	33	10	293	82	-6	-0	+0	+6	+9	0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	LAD	38%	396	351	76	13	2	8	36	122	6	4	2	217	300	333	634	117	302	31	9	289	79	-9	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.9
2028	25	MLB	LAD	55%	486	431	94	16	2	11	44	146	8	5	2	218	302	341	643	123	302	30	9	293	82	-10	+0	+0	+9	+14	1.3
2029	26	MLB	LAD	64%	520	459	102	18	2	12	48	154	8	5	2	222	307	349	655	126	301	30	9	295	84	-9	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2030	27	MLB	LAD	66%	520	459	102	18	2	12	48	154	8	5	2	222	307	349	655	126	301	30	9	296	84	-9	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2031	28	MLB	LAD	67%	520	458	102	18	2	12	49	155	8	5	2	223	309	349	658	127	300	30	9	295	84	-10	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.4
2032	29	MLB	LAD	66%	520	458	100	17	2	12	49	156	8	5	2	218	305	343	648	124	299	30	9	293	82	-10	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.3
2033	30	MLB	LAD	65%	520	458	99	17	2	11	49	157	8	5	2	216	303	334	637	118	298	30	9	290	80	-12	+0	-2	+9	+15	1.1
2034	31	MLB	LAD	65%	504	445	95	16	2	11	47	154	7	4	2	213	299	333	631	119	295	31	9	286	77	-13	+0	-3	+9	+14	0.7
2035	32	MLB	LAD	65%	489	433	91	15	2	10	46	151	7	4	2	210	296	323	620	113	292	31	9	280	73	-15	+0	-4	+9	+14	0.4
2036	33	MLB	LAD	64%	473	419	85	14	1	9	44	149	7	4	2	203	289	305	595	103	287	32	9	274	68	-17	+0	-4	+8	+13	0.0
2037	34	MLB	LAD	60%	436	387	76	12	1	8	40	140	6	4	1	196	282	295	576	98	282	32	9	266	61	-19	+0	-5	+8	+12	-0.3
2027	24	MLB	LAD	38%	149	132	29	5	1	3	14	46	2	1	1	220	304	341	645	121	298	31	9	274	68	-5	-0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2028	25	MLB	LAD	55%	269	238	52	9	1	6	25	81	4	3	1	218	303	340	644	122	298	30	9	278	71	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2029	26	MLB	LAD	64%	331	293	63	11	1	7	30	98	5	3	1	215	299	331	630	116	297	30	9	280	73	-10	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.5
2030	27	MLB	LAD	66%	342	302	65	11	1	8	32	101	5	3	1	215	301	338	639	123	297	30	9	281	73	-10	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.6
2031	28	MLB	LAD	67%	347	307	66	11	1	8	32	103	5	3	1	215	299	336	635	121	296	30	9	280	72	-11	+0	-0	+6	+10	0.5
2032	29	MLB	LAD	66%	342	302	64	11	1	7	32	102	5	3	1	212	298	325	622	113	295	30	9	278	71	-11	+0	-1	+6	+10	0.4
2033	30	MLB	LAD	65%	339	299	63	11	1	7	32	102	5	3	1	211	298	324	622	114	294	30	9	275	69	-12	+0	-1	+6	+10	0.3
2034	31	MLB	LAD	65%	326	287	60	10	1	7	31	99	5	3	1	209	297	324	621	115	291	30	10	272	66	-13	+0	-2	+6	+9	0.1
2035	32	MLB	LAD	65%	316	278	58	10	1	6	30	98	5	3	1	209	297	317	614	108	288	31	9	266	62	-14	+0	-2	+6	+9	-0.1
2036	33	MLB	LAD	64%	305	270	55	9	1	6	28	96	4	3	1	204	288	311	599	107	284	31	9	260	57	-15	+0	-3	+5	+9	-0.3
2037	34	MLB	LAD	60%	261	231	46	7	1	5	24	84	4	2	1	199	286	303	589	104	278	32	9	252	51	-14	+0	-3	+5	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3327	2940	621	105	11	70	310	1010	49	30	11	211	297	326	623	115	293	30	9	273	67	-124	+2	-12	+59	+94	1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	122	21	2	14	61	197	10	6	2	213	300	329	629	117	294	30	9	273	67	-24	+0	-2	+12	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	5576	4927	1059	180	21	120	518	1699	84	52	22	215	300	333	633	118	299	30	9	287	78	-139	+2	-20	+100	+158	10.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	123	21	2	14	60	198	10	6	3	214	299	331	630	117	299	30	9	287	78	-16	+0	-2	+12	+18	1.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,647	77	33	215	296	332	+65	+32	6.8	6.2
	/162	664	14	6	215	296	332	+11.9	+5.8	1.2	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Anson Aroz (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	225/323/344	120	329	7	4	33%	10%	82	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Patrick Bailey 2023 · A	24	39→49	45	47→45	46	196/270/318	122	268	13	5	31%	9%	63	-0.9	229/290/349	120	305	12	5	27%	8%	79	+0.3	235/295/351	116	311	12	4	27%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Jeferson Morales 2023 · A	24	38→45	47→50	49→50	43	195/276/331	137	262	14	9	30%	7%	69	-0.4	215/289/349	134	277	13	9	26%	7%	79	+0.3	221/296/357	136	275	13	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Adrian Del Castillo 2023 · A	23	36→43	44→50	52→40	42	187/249/306	120	252	12	7	30%	7%	51	-1.7	207/278/346	139	286	15	3	31%	8%	73	-0.1	222/289/402	180	281	22	1	28%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Bryan Holaday 2011 · A	23	41	44→45	47→40	42	201/283/317	116	296	12	5	34%	8%	69	-0.4	206/259/296	90	269	8	6	25%	5%	51	-1.7	223/289/353	130	256	14	2	19%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Andrew Susac 2013 · A	23	42→40	44→50	46→30	45	208/280/323	115	292	11	4	31%	8%	68	-0.5	218/291/365	147	292	17	3	30%	8%	84	+0.6	217/295/377	160	283	19	1	29%	9%	86	+0.4
✕Jose Lobatón 2008 · A	23	43	45→50	43→30	46	215/286/340	125	294	13	3	30%	8%	75	-0.0	218/277/338	120	292	12	3	28%	7%	70	-0.3	237/323/373	135	298	13	0	23%	11%	96	+0.7
✕John Hester 2007 · A	23	42	44→55	50	41	204/270/328	124	296	10	7	33%	7%	65	-0.7	226/267/367	141	299	14	7	28%	5%	73	-0.1	247/290/411	163	320	15	10	27%	5%	92	+0.6
✕Carlos Narváez 2023 · A	24	36→45	46→50	46→45	45	182/272/307	125	283	14	6	38%	10%	62	-0.9	207/290/338	131	291	14	7	32%	9%	77	+0.1	212/294/349	136	285	16	6	29%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Marcus Littlewood 2015 · A	23	41	41→45	49→45	46	201/266/303	102	266	8	5	27%	8%	56	-1.3	214/272/330	116	284	11	5	27%	7%	66	-0.6	212/266/328	116	280	12	3	28%	7%	60	-0.5
✕Adrian Nieto 2013 · A	23	42→45	41→45	45→40	44	203/268/299	96	290	8	5	31%	8%	56	-1.3	215/281/329	114	306	11	4	31%	8%	69	-0.4	205/279/318	112	292	11	2	31%	9%	64	-0.4
✕Jake Rogers 2018 · A	23	41→40	43→60	47→45	41	202/262/316	114	279	9	10	30%	6%	58	-1.2	196/266/342	146	271	17	7	33%	7%	68	-0.5	213/288/429	216	271	31	1	33%	8%	98	+0.8
✕Michael Papierski 2019 · A	23	38→44	39→45	47→40	54	184/290/266	83	249	7	6	27%	12%	59	-1.1	192/281/280	88	271	9	4	30%	10%	59	-1.1	204/292/309	105	261	11	0	25%	10%	68	-0.3
✕Pedro Pagés 2022 · A	23	44	42→50	42→40	42	213/280/315	102	304	10	4	32%	7%	66	-0.6	212/275/335	123	294	14	4	31%	7%	69	-0.4	225/284/360	135	285	17	2	26%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2023 · A	23	42	40→55	50→40	43	203/279/294	91	279	7	6	28%	7%	60	-1.0	209/281/354	145	278	18	4	31%	7%	78	+0.2	186/269/361	175	235	26	0	33%	7%	79	+0.1
✕Brandon Valenzuela 2023 · A	22	42→50	44→50	43→40	47	205/283/319	114	295	12	3	33%	10%	69	-0.4	201/269/320	119	280	13	4	31%	8%	63	-0.8	201/266/336	134	259	17	3	29%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Tyler Saladino 2012 · A	23	42→47	46→45	44→55	42	209/274/345	136	286	12	7	30%	7%	71	-0.3	217/286/316	99	287	8	20	25%	8%	68	-0.5	256/300/368	112	305	11	25	19%	5%	85	+0.4
✕Karexon Sanchez 2011 · A	23	45→48	42→45	47→50	44	215/290/326	111	303	9	10	30%	8%	73	-0.1	223/295/337	114	313	11	13	30%	8%	78	+0.2	221/292/337	115	302	14	15	29%	7%	73	-0.0
✕Joseph Staley 2012 · A	23	43	44→40	48→45	36	208/259/324	116	310	11	6	35%	5%	59	-1.1	215/300/308	93	315	5	7	30%	10%	72	-0.2	207/311/303	96	304	3	6	29%	12%	72	-0.1
✕Hutton Moyer 2016 · A	23	39→43	42→55	50	36	194/252/305	111	271	9	7	31%	4%	51	-1.7	207/256/343	136	305	15	13	36%	5%	63	-0.8	199/246/342	143	292	17	15	37%	4%	55	-0.6
✕Nick Hutchins 2019 · A	23	43	45→50	47→40	39	213/270/345	132	297	12	3	31%	6%	69	-0.4	207/248/306	99	290	8	5	30%	4%	49	-1.8	193/221/277	84	268	7	4	30%	2%	27	-1.6