Case Williams — OGILVIE

Case Williams P Spokane Indians

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%17.5%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	19	17	75	355	51	47	9	89%	4.0	10.6%	15.6%	-5.0%	2.7%	5.73	5.67	—
2021	19	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	19	17	75	355	51	47	9	89%	4.0	14.4%	13.2%	1.1%	2.5%	5.73	5.17	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	128	560	135	46	20	100%	5.6	17.2%	9.9%	7.3%	4.4%	4.64	5.31	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	128	560	135	46	20	100%	5.6	24.1%	8.2%	15.9%	3.6%	4.64	4.10	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	23	23	102	478	79	51	22	100%	4.4	13.4%	11.7%	1.7%	5.3%	7.08	6.37	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	23	23	102	478	79	51	22	100%	4.4	13.4%	11.7%	1.7%	5.3%	7.08	6.37	—
2023	21	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	23	23	102	478	79	51	22	100%	4.4	16.5%	10.7%	5.9%	4.6%	7.08	5.86	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	20	1	27	140	26	31	1	5%	1.4	15.9%	17.2%	-1.3%	1.4%	7.67	4.72	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	20	1	27	140	26	31	1	5%	1.4	15.9%	17.2%	-1.3%	1.4%	7.67	4.72	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	COL	8	0	7	44	7	14	0	0%	0.8	15.9%	31.8%	-15.9%	0.0%	14.85	5.79	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	COL	11	0	19	87	18	13	1	0%	1.7	20.7%	14.9%	5.7%	1.1%	4.26	3.88	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	COL	1	1	1	9	1	4	0	100%	1.3	11.1%	44.4%	-33.3%	0.0%	20.25	7.79	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	COL	6	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.1	17.5%	10.8%	6.7%	3.2%	5.13	5.13	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	33	167	31	34	2	—	—	18.4%	20.3%	-1.9%	1.1%	7.19	4.80	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	72	304	58	31	10	100%	6.0	19.0%	10.1%	8.9%	3.2%	4.96	4.90	0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	72	304	60	30	10	100%	6.0	19.8%	10.0%	9.8%	3.2%	4.85	4.81	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	71	300	60	30	10	100%	5.9	20.0%	10.0%	9.9%	3.2%	4.83	4.82	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	69	291	58	30	10	100%	6.3	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	3.3%	4.87	4.90	0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	66	278	55	29	10	100%	6.0	19.7%	10.4%	9.3%	3.5%	4.96	5.03	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	62	261	51	28	10	100%	6.2	19.4%	10.7%	8.7%	3.7%	5.11	5.21	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	COL	5	5	31	131	25	13	5	100%	6.2	19.0%	10.1%	8.9%	3.7%	5.23	5.17	0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	48	203	40	20	7	100%	6.0	19.8%	10.0%	9.8%	3.6%	5.11	5.07	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	55	232	46	23	9	100%	6.1	20.0%	10.0%	9.9%	3.7%	5.10	5.09	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	58	245	49	25	9	100%	5.8	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	3.8%	5.15	5.18	0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	58	245	48	25	10	100%	5.8	19.7%	10.4%	9.3%	4.0%	5.25	5.32	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	56	236	46	25	10	100%	6.2	19.4%	10.7%	8.7%	4.2%	5.42	5.52	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	305	1288	254	132	50	100%	6.0	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	3.9%	5.21	4.85	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	167	87	33	100%	6.0	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	3.9%	5.21	4.85	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		85	64	332	1533	220	191	62	75%	3.9	14.4%	12.4%	1.9%	4.0%	5.88	5.67	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	39	200	923	133	115	37	75%	3.9	14.4%	12.4%	1.9%	4.0%	5.88	5.67	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Case Williams (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	17.5%	10.8%	3.2%	—	4.84	19.6%	9.5%	215	-0.29	—	—	—
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	90
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	89
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	86
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	85
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	84
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	84
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	84
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	84
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	84
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	83
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	83
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	83
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	83
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.28	14.8%	3.5%	163	+0.78	2.59	367	82
Felipe Gonzalez R 2016 · 5.47 FIP	24	SP-	5.47	14.7%	10.6%	4.1%	.330	4.12	19.9%	10.4%	139	-1.35	3.27	339	81
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	81
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	81
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	80
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	80
Houston Roth R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	19.3%	11.2%	2.8%	.306	5.02	21.0%	8.4%	168	+0.58	3.79	406	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	69	19.3%	10.3%	1.28	4.96
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43