Case Williams
P
ACL Rockies
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.8 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION4 act + 71 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.65
FIP4.65
K%21.5%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%11.8%
ROS IP71
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 19 | 17 | 75 | 355 | 51 | 47 | 9 | 89% | 4.0 | 10.6% | 15.6% | -5.0% | 2.3% | 5.73 | 5.44 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 19 | 17 | 75 | 355 | 51 | 47 | 9 | 89% | 4.0 | 14.4% | 13.2% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 5.73 | 5.17 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 128 | 560 | 135 | 46 | 20 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 4.64 | 5.31 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 128 | 560 | 135 | 46 | 20 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.1% | 8.2% | 15.9% | 3.6% | 4.64 | 4.10 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 23 | 23 | 102 | 478 | 79 | 51 | 22 | 100% | 4.4 | 13.4% | 11.7% | 1.7% | 5.1% | 7.08 | 6.26 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 23 | 23 | 102 | 478 | 79 | 51 | 22 | 100% | 4.4 | 16.5% | 10.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 7.08 | 5.86 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 5 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | — | — | — | — | 27.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | 68 | 0 | 71 | 301 | 65 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.5% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 4.92 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 75 | 334 | 71 | 41 | 10 | — | — | 21.1% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 5.74 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 67 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 68 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 67 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 29 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.0% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.83 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 45 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 52 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 3.7% | 4.79 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 22 | 133 | 563 | 126 | 53 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.40 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 79 | 31 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 70 | 63 | 309 | 1426 | 204 | 179 | 57 | 90% | 4.4 | 14.3% | 12.5% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 5.98 | 5.68 | -1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 41 | 200 | 924 | 132 | 116 | 37 | 90% | 4.4 | 14.3% | 12.5% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 5.98 | 5.68 | -0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Case Williams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 21.5% | 9.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.52 | 22.3% | 12.9% | 215 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 88 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 87 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 87 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 87 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .359 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.67 | 4.20 | 118 | 85 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.28 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.36 | 3.41 | 368 | 85 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.53 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .278 | 5.41 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 66 | +0.88 | 3.96 | 260 | 82 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.16 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.22 | 3.50 | 472 | 82 |
| Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 81 |
| Nick Payero R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | .285 | 5.72 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 107 | +1.66 | 4.06 | 178 | 81 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.53 | 19.7% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .310 | 4.16 | 22.1% | 13.7% | 194 | +0.63 | 3.53 | 352 | 81 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 81 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 81 |
| Angel Araiza R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 80 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 80 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 80 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 80 |
| Edison Frias R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 4.4% | .318 | 4.15 | 13.7% | 3.5% | 166 | -0.81 | 4.15 | 279 | 80 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 80 |
| Blade Tidwell R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.9% | .295 | 4.29 | 22.9% | 11.6% | 57 | +0.22 | 4.07 | 408 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 72 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 1.23 | 4.56 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |