Case Williams
P
Hartford Yard Goats
+0.7
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.1 · 2028
ERA4.67
FIP4.67
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.5%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%11.8%
IP102
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2028
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 19 | 17 | 75 | 355 | 51 | 47 | 9 | 10.6% | 15.6% | 2.6% | 5.73 | 5.63 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 20 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 23 | 23 | 128 | 560 | 135 | 46 | 20 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 4.4% | 4.64 | 5.30 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 23 | 23 | 102 | 478 | 79 | 51 | 22 | 13.4% | 11.7% | 5.4% | 7.08 | 6.40 | -1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 102 | 429 | 92 | 42 | 14 | 21.5% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.67 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 115 | 486 | 106 | 45 | 15 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 122 | 515 | 114 | 47 | 16 | 22.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.50 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 125 | 528 | 117 | 48 | 17 | 22.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 125 | 529 | 117 | 48 | 17 | 22.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 122 | 517 | 113 | 47 | 17 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.56 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 119 | 501 | 109 | 46 | 17 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 104 | 45 | 16 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.70 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 99 | 44 | 16 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 105 | 443 | 93 | 43 | 16 | 20.9% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 4.88 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 87 | 42 | 15 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.93 | 4.99 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 94 | 397 | 80 | 40 | 15 | 20.2% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 5.04 | 5.11 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 88 | 372 | 73 | 38 | 14 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 3.9% | 5.16 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 65 | 63 | 305 | 1393 | 198 | 167 | 60 | 14.2% | 12.0% | 4.3% | 5.72 | 5.76 | -1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 41 | 200 | 913 | 130 | 110 | 39 | 14.2% | 12.0% | 4.3% | 5.72 | 5.76 | -1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Case Williams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 21.5% | 9.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.51 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 362 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 93 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 92 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 91 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 91 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 91 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 90 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 90 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 89 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 89 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 88 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.66 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .261 | 4.22 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.44 | 3.50 | 368 | 88 |
| Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 88 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 88 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .287 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 15.7% | 313 | -0.17 | 3.31 | 571 | 87 |
| Aaron Brown R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .337 | 5.97 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 186 | +1.89 | 4.08 | 418 | 87 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .319 | 3.42 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.56 | 3.15 | 349 | 87 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .284 | 3.78 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 41 | -0.29 | 3.78 | 293 | 87 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 87 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.92 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 4.5% | .277 | 4.93 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 274 | +0.01 | 4.04 | 448 | 87 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.13 | 18.8% | 10.2% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.98 | 23.2% | 13.0% | 155 | -1.15 | 2.65 | 315 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.8 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $10M | $40M | +$30M | ||