Carlson Reed

P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A+ peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECT

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	23	23	109	1.99	2.71	29.7%	11.7%	—	K 22.2% · BB 13.7% · FIP 3.72
2025	22	MIX3 levels	19	19	71	4.08	4.61	21.2%	17.3%	—	K 17.1% · BB 20.9% · FIP 5.73
2026	23	A+PIT	35	15	88	5.83	4.30	22.2%	12.8%	—	K 17.1% · BB 14.7% · FIP 5.27
2027PROJ	24	MLBPIT	23	23	129	5.87	5.87	18.0%	18.1%	-1.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBPIT	10	10	56	5.55	5.44	19.5%	15.7%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBPIT	14	14	87	5.36	5.29	20.4%	15.1%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff52Control20Command37FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsCobi Johnson (age 23) · Andrew Thurman (age 24) · Zach Linginfelter (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 128

ERA5.87

FIP5.87

K%18.0%

BB%18.1%

K-BB%-0.1%

Proj IP129

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5555

CTRL2020

CMD3040

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	4	2	7	34	6	3	0	50%	1.8	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	0.0%	2.57	2.73	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	4	2	7	34	6	3	0	50%	1.8	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	0.0%	2.57	2.67	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	109	437	130	51	5	100%	4.7	22.2%	13.7%	8.5%	1.4%	1.99	3.72	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	109	437	130	51	5	100%	4.7	22.2%	13.7%	8.5%	1.4%	1.99	3.72	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	109	437	130	51	5	100%	4.7	29.7%	11.7%	18.1%	1.1%	1.99	2.71	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	71	307	65	53	6	100%	3.7	17.1%	20.9%	-3.8%	2.6%	4.08	5.73	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	71	307	65	53	6	100%	3.7	17.1%	20.9%	-3.8%	2.6%	4.08	5.73	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	71	307	65	53	6	100%	3.7	21.2%	17.3%	3.9%	2.0%	4.08	4.61	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	35	15	88	392	87	50	10	43%	2.5	17.1%	14.7%	2.4%	3.2%	5.83	5.27	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	35	15	88	392	87	50	10	43%	2.5	17.1%	14.7%	2.4%	3.2%	5.83	5.27	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	35	15	88	392	87	50	10	43%	2.5	22.2%	12.8%	9.4%	2.6%	5.83	4.30	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	PIT	23	23	129	545	98	98	16	100%	5.6	18.0%	18.1%	-0.1%	3.0%	5.87	5.87	-1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	130	550	107	86	16	100%	5.9	19.5%	15.7%	3.8%	2.9%	5.55	5.44	-0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	130	550	112	83	16	100%	5.9	20.4%	15.1%	5.3%	3.0%	5.36	5.29	-0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	128	542	111	80	16	100%	6.1	20.4%	14.8%	5.7%	3.0%	5.29	5.27	-0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	124	526	107	77	16	100%	5.9	20.4%	14.7%	5.6%	3.1%	5.31	5.33	-0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	119	502	101	75	16	100%	5.9	20.1%	15.0%	5.1%	3.3%	5.40	5.46	-0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	112	472	93	72	16	100%	5.9	19.8%	15.3%	4.5%	3.5%	5.54	5.64	-0.9
2028	25	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	56	236	46	37	7	100%	5.6	19.5%	15.7%	3.8%	2.9%	5.55	5.44	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	87	367	75	55	11	100%	6.2	20.4%	15.1%	5.3%	3.0%	5.36	5.29	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	99	418	85	62	13	100%	6.2	20.4%	14.8%	5.7%	3.0%	5.29	5.27	-0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	105	443	90	65	14	100%	5.8	20.4%	14.7%	5.6%	3.1%	5.31	5.33	-0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	PIT	17	17	104	439	88	66	14	100%	6.1	20.1%	15.0%	5.1%	3.3%	5.40	5.46	-0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	PIT	17	17	100	422	83	64	15	100%	5.9	19.8%	15.3%	4.5%	3.5%	5.54	5.64	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		92	92	551	2327	469	350	73	100%	6.0	20.1%	15.0%	5.1%	3.1%	5.40	5.03	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	170	127	26	100%	6.0	20.1%	15.0%	5.1%	3.1%	5.40	5.03	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		81	59	274	1170	223	185	27	73%	3.4	19.0%	15.8%	3.3%	2.3%	3.77	4.74	-4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	43	200	853	162	135	19	73%	3.4	19.0%	15.8%	3.3%	2.3%	3.77	4.74	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlson Reed (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.87	18.0%	18.1%	3.0%	—	5.33	20.1%	4.9%	389	-0.54	—	—	—
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	79
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	79
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	76
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	76
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	75
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	75
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	75
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	75
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	73
Carlos Tavera R 2023 · 5.86 FIP	24	SP-	5.86	19.6%	17.3%	4.0%	.267	5.20	19.2%	6.0%	114	-0.66	3.85	263	73
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	72
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	71
R.J. Freure R 2021 · 6.10 FIP	24	SP-	6.10	21.7%	16.2%	5.1%	.298	5.89	20.3%	0.1%	26	-0.21	5.13	196	71
Jason Bilous R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	21.5%	17.1%	2.9%	.327	5.51	19.6%	0.6%	49	+0.48	3.71	375	71
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	70
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	70
Keith Weisenberg R 2019 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	15.5%	19.0%	1.0%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	162	70
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	70
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	69
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	4.95	18.3%	5.2%	131	-0.32	4.34	382	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	125	19.8%	15.5%	1.19	5.47
Emmett O'Neill ('43-'46, -2 WAR*)	1.8	119	19.1%*	15.5%*	0.99*	5.94*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Gene Dale ('11-'16, -1 WAR*)	2.2	148	17.7%*	12.6%*	1.45*	5.30*