Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Great Falls Voyagers | 14 | 14 | 37 | 173 | 31 | 24 | 2 | 100% | 2.6 | 12.2% | 17.3% | -5.2% | 1.6% | 7.85 | 5.16 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Great Falls Voyagers | 14 | 14 | 37 | 173 | 31 | 24 | 2 | 100% | 2.6 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 7.85 | 4.08 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | 31 | 17 | 105 | 461 | 113 | 60 | 12 | 55% | 3.4 | 18.1% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 3.70 | 6.18 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | 31 | 17 | 105 | 461 | 113 | 60 | 12 | 55% | 3.4 | 24.5% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 3.70 | 4.15 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 80 | 351 | 106 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 4.0 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 2.3% | 5.76 | 3.61 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 80 | 351 | 106 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 4.0 | 30.2% | 9.1% | 21.1% | 2.3% | 5.76 | 2.95 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 21 | 106 | 502 | 131 | 79 | 14 | 68% | 3.4 | 21.5% | 17.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 6.30 | 4.89 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 21 | 106 | 502 | 131 | 79 | 14 | 68% | 3.4 | 26.1% | 15.7% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 6.30 | 4.59 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 38 | 2 | 49 | 246 | 56 | 52 | 7 | 5% | 1.3 | 20.0% | 22.2% | -2.2% | 2.9% | 5.92 | 5.82 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 38 | 2 | 49 | 246 | 56 | 52 | 7 | 5% | 1.3 | 22.8% | 21.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 5.92 | 5.87 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 5 | 5 | 29 | 121 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.9% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 5 | 5 | 27 | 116 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.7% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.7% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.7% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.36 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 198 | 99 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 134 | 74 | 375 | 1733 | 347 | 276 | 54 | 55% | 2.8 | 20.0% | 15.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.56 | 5.13 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 39 | 200 | 923 | 185 | 147 | 29 | 55% | 2.8 | 20.0% | 15.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.56 | 5.13 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jason Bilous (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 22.9% | 11.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.74 | 22.7% | 11.3% | 27 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 74 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 71 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 70 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 2.0% | .278 | 6.71 | 16.4% | 2.4% | 16 | +2.71 | 4.00 | 464 | 68 |
| Jefry Rodriguez R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.06 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 3.4% | .287 | 4.47 | 19.8% | 6.8% | 64 | -0.59 | 3.21 | 578 | 68 |
| Chris Bassitt R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.00 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.74 | 21.7% | 14.1% | 336 | -0.26 | 3.02 | 1,507 | 68 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 67 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 67 |
| Brian Edgington R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 67 |
| Blake Beers R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 416 | 67 |
| Jason García R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.64 | 17.7% | 13.5% | 2.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 356 | 67 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 67 |
| Trent Sellers R 2024 · 5.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.09 | 23.5% | 14.2% | 4.0% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 236 | 67 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 66 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 66 |
| Justin Masterson R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 65 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 65 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.90 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.37 | 23.2% | 16.5% | 145 | -0.53 | 2.22 | 385 | 64 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 64 |
| Jesse Scholtens R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.98 | 22.4% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .303 | 4.22 | 19.1% | 11.6% | 193 | +0.24 | 3.13 | 825 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 1.19 | 4.66 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |