Kemp Alderman
OF Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | AA/A+/A/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 360 | .249/.317/.440 | 14 | 6 | 73 | — | .201/.249/.325 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA/AAMIA | 536 | .285/.342/.482 | 22 | 22 | 91 | — | .254/.296/.408 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAAMIA | 439 | .254/.336/.434 | 19 | 10 | 72 | — | .214/.277/.338 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 24 | MLBMIA | 21 | .215/.269/.347 | 1 | 0 | 78 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 25 | MLBMIA | 90 | .220/.275/.364 | 3 | 2 | 85 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 26 | MLBMIA | 140 | .222/.279/.374 | 5 | 3 | 89 | 0.0 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 20 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 133 | 117 | 24 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 205 | 290 | 316 | 606 | 111 | 291 | 29 | 5 | 276 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 23 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 174 | 348 | 522 | 174 | 231 | 39 | 0 | 225 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 138 | 125 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 240 | 312 | 344 | 656 | 104 | 308 | 23 | 9 | 298 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 140 | 126 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 270 | 328 | 468 | 797 | 198 | 315 | 23 | 7 | 344 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | FCL Marlins | — | 19 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 133 | 316 | 200 | 516 | 67 | 200 | 26 | 21 | 262 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 40 | 36 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 306 | 375 | 833 | 1.208 | 528 | 294 | 32 | 10 | 504 | 228 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 82 | 76 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 303 | 346 | 671 | 1.017 | 368 | 333 | 27 | 6 | 429 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 454 | 412 | 116 | 13 | 5 | 15 | 34 | 102 | 3 | 20 | 9 | 282 | 341 | 447 | 787 | 165 | 337 | 22 | 7 | 346 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 439 | 389 | 99 | 11 | 1 | 19 | 38 | 144 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 254 | 336 | 434 | 771 | 180 | 351 | 33 | 9 | 343 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 133 | 119 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 51 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 176 | 252 | 269 | 521 | 92 | 273 | 38 | 4 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 23 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 174 | 348 | 522 | 174 | 216 | 48 | 0 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 138 | 129 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 209 | 261 | 302 | 563 | 93 | 286 | 29 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 140 | 129 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 209 | 255 | 364 | 620 | 155 | 263 | 30 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | — | 19 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 118 | 211 | 176 | 387 | 59 | 150 | 37 | 11 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 82 | 77 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 247 | 284 | 519 | 803 | 273 | 286 | 33 | 5 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 454 | 423 | 108 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 125 | 3 | 20 | 9 | 255 | 298 | 388 | 686 | 132 | 327 | 28 | 5 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 439 | 402 | 86 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 173 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 214 | 277 | 338 | 615 | 124 | 331 | 39 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 133 | 119 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 51 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 176 | 252 | 269 | 521 | 92 | 290 | 38 | 4 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 133 | 117 | 24 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 205 | 290 | 316 | 606 | 111 | 291 | 29 | 5 | 276 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 5 teams | — | 360 | 335 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 113 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 194 | 244 | 307 | 551 | 113 | 266 | 31 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | 5 teams | — | 360 | 325 | 81 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 31 | 91 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 249 | 317 | 440 | 757 | 191 | 300 | 25 | 9 | 332 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 536 | 501 | 127 | 19 | 5 | 16 | 26 | 152 | 3 | 22 | 10 | 253 | 294 | 407 | 702 | 154 | 327 | 28 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 536 | 488 | 139 | 20 | 5 | 22 | 39 | 124 | 3 | 22 | 10 | 285 | 342 | 482 | 823 | 197 | 336 | 23 | 7 | 359 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 439 | 402 | 86 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 173 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 214 | 277 | 338 | 615 | 124 | 335 | 39 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA RAW | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 439 | 389 | 99 | 11 | 1 | 19 | 38 | 144 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 254 | 336 | 434 | 771 | 180 | 351 | 33 | 9 | 343 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 133 | 120 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 51 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 175 | 252 | 267 | 519 | 92 | 273 | 38 | 4 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 5 teams | — | 360 | 335 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 113 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 194 | 244 | 307 | 551 | 113 | 263 | 31 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 536 | 502 | 127 | 19 | 5 | 16 | 26 | 152 | 3 | 22 | 10 | 253 | 294 | 406 | 701 | 153 | 321 | 28 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 439 | 401 | 86 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 173 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 214 | 277 | 339 | 616 | 125 | 331 | 39 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 5 teams | — | 360 | 335 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 113 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 194 | 244 | 307 | 551 | 113 | 263 | 31 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 536 | 502 | 127 | 19 | 5 | 16 | 26 | 152 | 3 | 22 | 10 | 253 | 294 | 406 | 701 | 153 | 321 | 28 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 439 | 401 | 86 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 25 | 173 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 214 | 277 | 339 | 616 | 125 | 331 | 39 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIA | 10% | 380 | 351 | 78 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 139 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 222 | 276 | 362 | 638 | 140 | 326 | 37 | 6 | 284 | 78 | -10 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIA | 10% | 21 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 269 | 347 | 616 | 132 | 316 | 38 | 5 | 275 | 78 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIA | 35% | 259 | 239 | 54 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 93 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 227 | 281 | 380 | 661 | 153 | 325 | 36 | 6 | 293 | 85 | -5 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIA | 46% | 303 | 278 | 64 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 106 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 230 | 285 | 391 | 676 | 161 | 323 | 35 | 6 | 299 | 89 | -4 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIA | 50% | 320 | 294 | 68 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 111 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 229 | 286 | 389 | 675 | 160 | 321 | 35 | 6 | 299 | 88 | -4 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIA | 52% | 326 | 299 | 68 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 111 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 228 | 286 | 385 | 671 | 157 | 318 | 34 | 6 | 297 | 87 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIA | 52% | 321 | 294 | 67 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 109 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 227 | 285 | 380 | 665 | 153 | 315 | 34 | 6 | 295 | 86 | -5 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIA | 52% | 314 | 288 | 64 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 107 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 224 | 281 | 372 | 653 | 148 | 313 | 34 | 6 | 290 | 83 | -7 | -0 | -3 | -2 | +7 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIA | 35% | 90 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 275 | 364 | 638 | 144 | 315 | 36 | 6 | 284 | 85 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIA | 46% | 140 | 129 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 222 | 279 | 374 | 652 | 152 | 313 | 35 | 6 | 290 | 89 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIA | 50% | 160 | 147 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 55 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 222 | 279 | 372 | 651 | 150 | 311 | 34 | 6 | 289 | 88 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIA | 52% | 170 | 156 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 58 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 221 | 279 | 369 | 648 | 148 | 308 | 34 | 6 | 288 | 87 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIA | 52% | 166 | 153 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 56 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 278 | 364 | 642 | 144 | 305 | 34 | 6 | 286 | 86 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIA | 52% | 162 | 149 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 55 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 274 | 356 | 631 | 140 | 303 | 34 | 6 | 281 | 83 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 888 | 818 | 179 | 24 | 5 | 29 | 53 | 305 | 11 | 15 | 6 | 219 | 276 | 367 | 642 | 148 | 307 | 34 | 6 | 286 | 79 | -14 | +1 | -4 | -5 | +19 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 599 | 132 | 18 | 4 | 21 | 39 | 223 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 220 | 278 | 369 | 646 | 149 | 309 | 34 | 6 | 286 | 79 | -11 | +0 | -3 | -4 | +14 | -0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3521 | 3243 | 727 | 109 | 17 | 106 | 199 | 1203 | 47 | 80 | 30 | 224 | 279 | 366 | 645 | 142 | 317 | 34 | 6 | 286 | 79 | -36 | +2 | -8 | -12 | +44 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 134 | 20 | 3 | 20 | 37 | 222 | 9 | 15 | 6 | 224 | 280 | 367 | 647 | 144 | 315 | 34 | 6 | 286 | 79 | -11 | +1 | -3 | -4 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 439 PAwOBA .333 → .274 (−59)K% 32.8% → 39.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.80% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 5.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.28% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 2.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.005 | ×1.048 | 27.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×1.048 | 3.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×1.048 | 0.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 5.69% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .333 → .274; ISO .180 → .130; BABIP .351 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 454 PAwOBA .340 → .297 (−43)K% 22.5% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.47% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.49% | ÷1.045 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 5.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.66% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.77% | ÷1.017 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 26.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.19% | ÷0.955 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 4.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.61% | ÷0.941 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 1.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.84% | ÷1.103 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.61% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 88, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .340 → .297; ISO .165 → .135; BABIP .337 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 82 PAwOBA .421 → .336 (−85)K% 26.8% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.83% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.10% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | ×0.985 | ×1.050 | 15.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.96% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | ×0.985 | ×1.050 | 10.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.985 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.96% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 10.56% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .421 → .336; ISO .368 → .288; BABIP .333 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 140 PAwOBA .341 → .273 (−69)K% 22.9% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.86% | ÷1.029 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | — | 4.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.28% | ÷1.065 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | — | 18.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.51% | ÷1.032 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | — | 6.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.960 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | — | 1.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.32% | ÷0.888 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.79% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 113, 2B 106, 3B 92, K 106, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .341 → .273; ISO .198 → .165; BABIP .315 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 138 PAwOBA .291 → .244 (−47)K% 23.2% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.19% | ÷1.014 | ×1.270 | — | — | 29.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.42% | ÷0.998 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 6.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.66% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 22.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.38% | ÷0.962 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 4.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.08% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.15% | ÷0.935 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.86% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 103, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .291 → .244; ISO .104 → .086; BABIP .308 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 23 PAwOBA .218 → .171 (−47)K% 39.1% → 45.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.13% | ÷1.039 | ×1.220 | — | — | 45.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 13.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.034 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.042 | 6.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.064 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 5.59% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 82, K 108, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .218 → .171; ISO .174 → .126; BABIP .231 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Marlins · 19 PAwOBA .257 → .167 (−90)K% 26.3% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.32% | ÷0.987 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.05% | ÷0.970 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 13.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 8.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 6.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.004 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.898 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 97, 2B 103, 3B 101, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .257 → .167; ISO .067 → .043; BABIP .200 → .150. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AJupiter Hammerheads · 133 PAwOBA .273 → .224 (−49)K% 29.3% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.32% | ÷1.039 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.26% | ÷0.996 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 3.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.26% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 4.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.95% | ÷0.985 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 17.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.26% | ÷1.031 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 8.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.28% | ÷0.924 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.13% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 108, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .273 → .224; ISO .111 → .088; BABIP .291 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .