Brian Fletcher
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 24 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 336 | .292/.332/.505 | 17 | 7 | 82 | — | .243/.272/.408 |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA/AA/ROK3 orgs | 228 | .274/.342/.413 | 7 | 4 | 61 | — | .221/.270/.324 |
| 2015 | 26 | AACWS | 285 | .234/.313/.385 | 7 | 4 | 51 | — | .198/.253/.321 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 21 | ROK | Burlington Royals | — | 17 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 312 | 353 | 688 | 1.040 | 375 | 333 | 29 | 6 | 446 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A | Kane County Cougars | — | 376 | 341 | 112 | 31 | 3 | 14 | 24 | 80 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 328 | 388 | 560 | 948 | 232 | 394 | 21 | 6 | 412 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 280 | 254 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 96 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 256 | 320 | 433 | 753 | 177 | 367 | 34 | 5 | 333 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 272 | 246 | 69 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 51 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 280 | 347 | 398 | 745 | 118 | 335 | 19 | 7 | 336 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 88 | 69 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 368 | 333 | 701 | 130 | 289 | 27 | 19 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 115 | 108 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 289 | 435 | 725 | 185 | 310 | 29 | 4 | 317 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 221 | 207 | 65 | 9 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 41 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 314 | 355 | 541 | 896 | 227 | 342 | 19 | 6 | 390 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 136 | 124 | 37 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 298 | 356 | 395 | 751 | 97 | 422 | 29 | 7 | 337 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 70 | 59 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 323 | 525 | 849 | 271 | 238 | 24 | 7 | 344 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | ROK | Burlington Royals | — | 22 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 318 | 167 | 485 | 333 | 41 | 18 | 250 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 26 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 285 | 252 | 59 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 72 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 234 | 313 | 385 | 698 | 151 | 295 | 25 | 9 | 310 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 21 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 17 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 235 | 375 | 610 | 188 | 260 | 41 | 6 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 376 | 349 | 93 | 24 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 108 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 266 | 316 | 450 | 765 | 183 | 347 | 29 | 4 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 280 | 258 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 118 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 205 | 263 | 341 | 604 | 136 | 329 | 42 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 272 | 254 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 74 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 217 | 266 | 319 | 585 | 102 | 281 | 27 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 115 | 109 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 183 | 219 | 303 | 522 | 119 | 268 | 38 | 3 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 221 | 212 | 58 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 274 | 300 | 462 | 762 | 189 | 312 | 23 | 4 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 136 | 127 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 55 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 236 | 281 | 299 | 581 | 63 | 391 | 40 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 70 | 61 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 277 | 443 | 720 | 213 | 213 | 30 | 4 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 22 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 182 | 100 | 282 | 263 | 59 | 9 | 147 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 285 | 262 | 52 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 198 | 253 | 321 | 573 | 122 | 261 | 31 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 17 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 235 | 375 | 610 | 188 | 250 | 41 | 6 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | ROK RAW | Burlington Royals | — | 17 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 312 | 353 | 688 | 1.040 | 375 | 333 | 29 | 6 | 446 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 376 | 349 | 93 | 24 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 108 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 266 | 316 | 450 | 765 | 183 | 351 | 29 | 4 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A RAW | Kane County Cougars | — | 376 | 341 | 112 | 31 | 3 | 14 | 24 | 80 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 328 | 388 | 560 | 948 | 232 | 394 | 21 | 6 | 412 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 640 | 594 | 124 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 26 | 223 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 209 | 261 | 327 | 588 | 118 | 305 | 35 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 640 | 569 | 148 | 29 | 3 | 16 | 51 | 171 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 260 | 338 | 406 | 744 | 146 | 342 | 27 | 8 | 333 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 336 | 321 | 78 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 96 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 243 | 272 | 408 | 681 | 165 | 304 | 29 | 4 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 336 | 315 | 92 | 14 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 74 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 292 | 332 | 505 | 837 | 213 | 332 | 22 | 5 | 365 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 228 | 208 | 45 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 216 | 266 | 317 | 583 | 101 | 331 | 39 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 228 | 201 | 55 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 66 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 274 | 342 | 413 | 755 | 139 | 358 | 29 | 8 | 330 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 285 | 262 | 52 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 198 | 253 | 321 | 573 | 122 | 275 | 31 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 285 | 252 | 59 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 72 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 234 | 313 | 385 | 698 | 151 | 295 | 25 | 9 | 310 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 17 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 235 | 375 | 610 | 188 | 260 | 41 | 6 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 376 | 348 | 93 | 24 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 108 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 267 | 316 | 451 | 767 | 184 | 347 | 29 | 4 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 640 | 593 | 124 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 26 | 223 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 209 | 261 | 327 | 588 | 118 | 305 | 35 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 336 | 320 | 78 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 96 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 244 | 272 | 409 | 682 | 166 | 297 | 29 | 4 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 228 | 212 | 45 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 88 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 212 | 266 | 311 | 577 | 99 | 324 | 39 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 285 | 264 | 52 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 89 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 197 | 253 | 318 | 571 | 121 | 261 | 31 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1882 | 1750 | 395 | 77 | 8 | 50 | 83 | 611 | 31 | 32 | 15 | 226 | 273 | 365 | 638 | 139 | 312 | 32 | 4 | 276 | 73 | -61 | +0 | +0 | -20 | +41 | -4.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 604 | 137 | 27 | 3 | 17 | 29 | 211 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 227 | 275 | 366 | 641 | 139 | 314 | 32 | 4 | 276 | 73 | -21 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AABirmingham Barons · 285 PAwOBA .304 → .244 (−59)K% 25.3% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.26% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.77% | ÷1.019 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 5.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.56% | ÷1.007 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×0.978 | 17.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.22% | ÷0.875 | ×0.910 | ×0.972 | ×0.978 | 7.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.11% | ÷1.087 | ×0.880 | ×0.972 | ×0.978 | 0.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.89% | ÷1.102 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.76% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 101, 2B 75, 3B 117, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .304 → .244; ISO .151 → .120; BABIP .295 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 136 PAwOBA .330 → .260 (−71)K% 29.4% → 40.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.41% | ÷0.945 | ×1.290 | — | — | 40.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.35% | ÷1.096 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 4.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.71% | ÷1.027 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 33.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.969 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 4.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.998 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 1.89% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 89, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .330 → .260; ISO .097 → .073; BABIP .422 → .391. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 70 PAwOBA .359 → .292 (−68)K% 24.3% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.29% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.028 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.43% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 19.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.969 | ×0.840 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 2.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.127 | ×0.940 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.90% | ÷1.199 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 7.85% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 95, 2B 94, 3B 125, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .359 → .292; ISO .271 → .194; BABIP .238 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKBurlington Royals · 22 PAwOBA .245 → .147 (−98)K% 40.9% → 58.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.91% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 58.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.940 | 10.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.940 | 26.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .245 → .147; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 221 PAwOBA .379 → .321 (−58)K% 18.6% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.55% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.43% | ÷1.028 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 3.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.90% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.032 | ×0.998 | 24.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.42% | ÷0.956 | ×0.840 | ×1.032 | ×0.998 | 4.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷0.996 | ×0.940 | ×1.032 | ×0.998 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.23% | ÷0.980 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.89% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 104, 2B 91, 3B 99, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .379 → .321; ISO .227 → .185; BABIP .342 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 115 PAwOBA .310 → .232 (−78)K% 28.7% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.70% | ÷0.958 | ×1.290 | — | — | 38.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.35% | ÷1.032 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 3.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.67% | ÷1.007 | ×0.900 | ×0.968 | ×1.033 | 20.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.973 | ×0.810 | ×0.968 | ×1.033 | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.906 | ×0.810 | ×0.968 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.024 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 5.25% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 81, K 92, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .310 → .232; ISO .185 → .130; BABIP .310 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 280 PAwOBA .326 → .258 (−68)K% 34.3% → 42.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.29% | ÷0.989 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.36% | ÷0.936 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.21% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 2.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.58% | ÷1.047 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×1.012 | 23.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.96% | ÷0.883 | ×0.840 | ×1.009 | ×1.012 | 6.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.27% | ÷1.079 | ×0.940 | ×1.009 | ×1.012 | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.33% | ÷1.059 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.84% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 109, 2B 77, 3B 116, K 98, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .326 → .258; ISO .177 → .132; BABIP .367 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 272 PAwOBA .327 → .258 (−69)K% 18.8% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.75% | ÷0.978 | ×1.420 | — | — | 27.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.62% | ÷1.054 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 3.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.21% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 1.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.64% | ÷1.085 | ×0.940 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 21.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.18% | ÷0.931 | ×0.830 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 6.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.113 | ×0.800 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.783 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 2.91% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 117, 2B 86, 3B 123, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .327 → .258; ISO .118 → .110; BABIP .335 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).